January 2026

[DoctorMu]

GEPS has us about 5°F in CLL. Crayzee. Wait until we have some data.

[DoctorMu]

Euro 0z QPF



Get me a cold column

[biggerbyte]

Temps forecasts are getting lower. I have a horrible feeling about this.

[djmike]

Temps forecasts are getting lower. I have a horrible feeling about this.

Same. Beaumont showed 22 for lows and NWS now shows 19 for low. The moisture will be there. Have a feeling SETX coastal counties will be involved with a lot more freezing rain than was expected.

[biggerbyte]

Temps forecasts are getting lower. I have a horrible feeling about this.

Same. Beaumont showed 22 for lows and NWS now shows 19 for low. The moisture will be there. Have a feeling SETX coastal counties will be involved with a lot more freezing rain than was expected.

Indeed. This is going to be rough on so many if we lose power. My being a cancer patient scares me. Then there are the pipes and pets. My black kitty is not allowed to come inside. Not my home. I'm so worried about him. The homeless.

Having ice on everything will just compound the issue. However, there is a chance the worst of this will stay north of the Houston area..Folks need to do with this what we do with a potential hurricane. Be ready.

[Brazoriatx979]

Good morning everybody, let's see what the models bring today! exciting times ahead!

[tireman4]

Let me post this again as to what HGX said about watching models

Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.

[snowman65]

The only overnight change I've seen is my forecast of heavy snow storm is now just cold rain Sat/Sun

[MontgomeryCoWx]

No one here was ever getting snow.

[tireman4]

Well, Thursday will be the day. Once we get the high res models in ( HRRR and RAP), we will really start to verify amounts, what form they take and how long the duration of this event it.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

1-21-26 720am
Significant winter storm to impact much of Texas this weekend…widespread travel impacts are likely.
Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills this weekend into early next week.
Increasing chances for freezing rain and ice accumulation for Houston metro Saturday and Sunday
Maximum winterization preparation will be needed for this event to help mitigate infrastructure damage…completed by Friday afternoon.
Unfortunately, the trend in the last 24 hours has been generally colder across the guidance spectrum yielding a continued decrease in the temperature forecast. Arctic front looks to arrive either late Friday afternoon or evening across the area (timing is still a bit uncertain) with falling temperatures and onset of gusty northerly winds. Freeze line likely to advance southward Friday night/Sat AM to a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Porter and then continue southward during the day reaching the I-10 corridor midday to mid afternoon and the coast by early to mid evening. How quickly the freezing line moves south will be very important on freezing rain probabilities and ice accumulations.
Hard freeze (24 or below) is likely for much of the area on Sun AM and even colder Mon AM with lows into the upper 10’s outside the Beltway and low to mid 20’s to the coast…and mid (possibly even low) 10’s across the Brazos valley….this will be a damaging freeze. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to reach freezing and this may result in duration of temperatures below freezing nearing 40 hours or longer for much of the metro Houston area and up to 72 hours for areas to the north and west. High temperatures on Monday may only reach the mid to upper 30’s for a few hours.
Wind chills will become dangerous with values falling into the 10’s late Saturday into much of Sun (low 20’s in the Houston metro) and then down to the low 10’s Sunday night into Monday AM (could even get 1’s in north and west areas).
Precipitation:
SE TX will be on the southern edge of a potentially catastrophic and crippling ice storm across interior TX
Chances for ice accumulation have increased across all of SE TX with potential for at least minor accumulation to the coast.
Travel impacts are increasingly likely across much of the region.
Once the arctic front is through Friday evening the freezing line will advance southward…GFS appears to be resolving the intensity of the cold air mass best and pushes the freezing line toward I-10 by midday Saturday with freezing rain developing southward during the day. There is still some uncertainty in how quickly this happens and the high resolution guidance tomorrow should help with timing onset of freezing precipitation. Given this faster onset the potential for higher ice accumulation of .05 to .20 of an inch is being brought toward the US 59 corridor with more significant accumulations of .25-.45 of an inch north of HWY 105. Ice accumulation of .20-.25 of an inch is where we begin to worry about power infrastructure damage along with vegetation impacts and areas north of HWY 105 look to reach this range. Freezing rain should gradually end around midday Sunday, but it is possible that freezing drizzle or mist lingers into Sunday afternoon given a saturated air column and very cold air which is effective a squeezing moisture out.
It should be noted that similar to rainfall events there will be pockets of higher ice accumulation and areas of lower accumulation and this is an early look at accumulations so changes up or down will be possible.
Additionally north winds of 15-20mph through the period will add additional stress to ice coated trees and power lines and isolated power outages will be possible even down to the coast.
Preparations:
Proper winterization of any exposed pipes/plumbing will be needed to prevent infrastructure damage. Sprinkler systems must be shut off and properly drained. Exterior facing wall pipes will be a risk of freezing at the forecasted temperatures.
Pets/livestock will require proper shelter to protect from the cold temperatures and wind chills.
Tropical plants/vegetation will require maximum freeze protection. Unprotected tropical vegetation will be killed and even protect vegetation will likely suffer heavy damage.
Persons should limit outdoor exposure during the cold. Utilize heating sources properly to reduce the risk of fire and carbon monoxide poisoning.
All cold weather preparations should be completed by Friday afternoon prior to the arrival of the cold front.

[tireman4]

Weekend Views

[tireman4]

Ice Accumulation Forecast

[tireman4]

From The Austin Man about the drops being made from Recon ( on this system that will bring us precipitation)

Just to tag along with the recon clarifications, the mission is this afternoon/evening. Yesterday's flight was just for repositioning. We can verify this in the model ingest status for the 12z GFS... no "dropw"s (dropsonde datasets) were eaten by the model. I would imagine they will start showing up in the 06z run tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

The 12z NAM is out - it can’t be trusted, sorry, it’s lagging way too far behind on the plunging shallow air.

Wait ‘till tomorrow at least - it may not catch up until Friday, if ever, with this one.

[tireman4]

The 12z NAM is out - it can’t be trusted, sorry, it’s lagging way too far behind on the plunging shallow air.

Wait ‘till tomorrow at least - it may not catch up until Friday, if ever, with this one.

We really need those recon data sets for tomorrow. That will really hone in on what action might occur

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs is way warmer

[Cromagnum]

Arctic fronts always come in colder and faster than models show.

[Brazoriatx979]

Pretty dead in here, considering what we have in store in a couple days.