January 2026

[Stratton20]

GFS has a 4 day winter storm from friday- monday afternoon, im not sure ive ever seen something like that ever down here

[Brazoriatx979]

must be on hell of a warm nose to keep it all rain here in brazoria county

[don]

[sambucol]

I am concerned about widespread power outages across the state. Someone had mentioned with AI coming online and requiring a boatload of power, their question was how will that affect our power grid in a winter event with ice in a large area of the state.

Are power outages a valid concern, or has ERCOT beefed up the grid since 2021?

[Cpv17]

must be on hell of a warm nose to keep it all rain here in brazoria county

Remember, when the high res mesos start coming in, they will more than likely be colder than what the globals are showing.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The Canadian has my line of thinking on precip shield and strength. Not sure I buy it’s extreme cold.

Yeah, the freezing precip trend is definitely south.

[Cromagnum]

12z GFS

[MontgomeryCoWx]

NWS giving coastal and Central counties a 50% chance of FRZA with temps in the mid 20s. They think it’s a decent bet.

That would make a mess in Houston.

[Cpv17]

Things could get really interesting around here when the mesos start coming in.

[Cpv17]

Boy, that 12z CMC is a thing of beauty.

[Brazoriatx979]

do tell

[noclueaboutweather]

do tell

That would be a pipe buster and a complete traffic mess on Sunday into Monday. It doesn't show temperatures above freezing from about midnight on Sunday through about noon on Tuesday.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

do tell

That would be a pipe buster and a complete traffic mess on Sunday into Monday. It doesn't show temperatures above freezing from about midnight on Sunday through about noon on Tuesday.

Let me just say that I really like your name and welcome!

[Cpv17]

do tell

The cold on that model run is absolutely insane. 25-30°F below normal for a 5 day average is bananas.

[txsnowmaker]

Don’t be surprised one bit if the chatter about freezing rain in Houston shortly turns to sleet and snow. We’ve seen this story before about warm noses quickly eroding and the air column being colder than initially thought.

[tireman4]

Let me caution you about the Canadian (and I am not saying do not look at it nor believe it), it has been notorious about overperforming when it comes to temperatures, especially in winter. I will say this high-pressure system that is set to come down means business. I think the temperature drops will be quite drastic when it comes through. I would not be surprised to see 25-30 degree drops within an hour or two after passage. The cold air will be here, and it will be noticeable. I think once we get to the high-resolution models, we can really see where the activity will take place and what form of precipitation might fall. I am not trying to be a buzz kill, but forecasting ( especially winter events) is tricky in the part of the state.

[tireman4]

The Weather Channel ( they have named the storm, Fern. No, the National Weather Service does not name winter storms)

[Brazoriatx979]

12z euro

[txsnowmaker]

12z euro

With snow bands in Metro Houston at the end. After any initial cold rain, I’m expecting to see more/mostly blue for our area as we get closer to the weekend.

[Stratton20]

I wouldn’t get youre hopes up on snow, This looks mainly sleet/ ICE, but i cant possibly rule out some snow at the end, a slower upper low like what the GFS has, well that may give just some more time for the cold air to cool the column and weaken the warm nose