October 2025

[DoctorMu]

Lucy is bringing the juice. Lows in the 40s the night before Halloween: Euro, GFS, CMC. Ensembles coming in a tad warmer, but would be some respectable weather.

We'll see about all that. lol

[jasons2k]

The mini-FROPA moved through. Another 24 hours before reverse flow. Enjoy the evening!

Another dry frontal passage here.

[DoctorMu]

The mini-FROPA moved through. Another 24 hours before reverse flow. Enjoy the evening!

Another dry frontal passage here.

Dry as a bone.

CPC is not buying into the Halloween Party yet.

[Stratton20]

CPC has been adjusting their forecast towards below normal temperatures though, Its going to get chilly, expecting highs in the mid 60’s for halloween, that looks like a safe bet to me

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[tireman4]

WPC

[DoctorMu]

Confidence is growing. NWS is progging 100% on Saturday in CLL. Potentially, 2-4 inches of rain

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(639.01 KiB) Not downloaded yet

[Rip76]

Confidence is growing. NWS is progging 100% on Saturday in CLL. Potentially, 2-4 inches of rain

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Very nice.

[captainbarbossa19]

This weekend looks very stormy. Likely going to see at least 2 lines of showers and thunderstorms between Saturday to Sunday morning. Some concern also for severe weather with isolated tornadoes and damaging wind a possibility. The shortwave will have negative tilt over the region along with bulk shear of 50 knots plus over the weekend. Combine that with decent SRH values from 0-3 km and enough CAPE and it could get quite interesting.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[tireman4]

Batiste talks about our Captain alluded to.

As the upper level low continues to move through Texas, it will send
another vort max through the area on Saturday evening into early
Sunday morning bringing another potential MCS with heavy rain as the
main hazard. With the second round is when a frontal boundary pushes
through. Before we get into rainfall amounts, I want to preface this
by saying that it`s a bit early to pinpoint exactly where the higher
amounts will fall. We`re currently looking at widespread 2-4"
between Friday-Sunday morning, but there is potential that we could
see higher end amounts in the 4-6" range. Taking a look at some
probabilistic guidance, there`s a 30-50% chance of rainfall totals
greater than 4" and a ~15-25% probability of rainfall totals greater
than 5" mainly for areas around and east of I-45. There is
definitely potential for localized street flooding with both of
these rounds of storms. For Saturday, the slight risk of excessive
rainfall is expanded to include areas near and east of I-45. There
remains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall generally near and
west of the Brazos River. It has certainly been dry for quite a
while, so the ground should be able to soak up most of the rainfall.
The main concern is in urban areas (or areas with poor drainage)
where rainfall rates are too high to allow for proper drainage,
which can lead to street flooding. The additional concern is that
the bulk of this rainfall will fall during the nighttime hours on
both Friday and Saturday nights. Be especially cautious at night
when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

[Pas_Bon]

Welp, for the first time in a LONG while, the numbers have trended upward in terms of precipitation.

This promises to be a drought buster, the likes of which we haven’t seen in months. Enjoy.

We desperately need it.
Space City Weather Fall Day may be cancelled.

[Cromagnum]

Seeing forecasts with 100% certainties and 2-3 inches of rain. I don't believe it.

[Cpv17]

Globals trending in the wrong direction as it gets closer to Saturday. Mesos please save us lol

[Cromagnum]

Seeing forecasts with 100% certainties and 2-3 inches of rain. I don't believe it.

Now down to 90% to CYA in case it doesnt rain.

[captainbarbossa19]

I don't think there's any question that it's going to rain for everyone in Southeast Texas now. The real question is how much severe weather are we going to see? The dynamics look very interesting for this weekend with plenty of energy for storms in late October. Won't be surprised if SPC goes enhanced before this event is over.

[Stratton20]

Any chance this rain holds off until later tomorrow afternoon, going to a friends moms funeral from 12-2pm

[tireman4]

I don't think there's any question that it's going to rain for everyone in Southeast Texas now. The real question is how much severe weather are we going to see? The dynamics look very interesting for this weekend with plenty of energy for storms in late October. Won't be surprised if SPC goes enhanced before this event is over.

Agreed on all points you stated. One positive point is that the soils are abnormally dry, so we have wiggle room for the first rains that come. I agree with the severe component. It will be interesting on what the models and SPC say

[tireman4]

SPC

[tireman4]

Saturday