I would not be surprised if we see a Category 5 hurricane this year.
Tropical Discussion 2025
The Gulf is a boiling pot. SST’s have really gone up the past few days.
I pray that doesn’t happen
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Stratton20
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That area near the bahamas should be watched closely as it drifts into the gulf this weekend, could try to develop, some ensemble support showing
Yeah, bro, the lid is about to pop off. My target date from the 10th-20th is gonna verify, it looks like.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 05, 2025 3:53 pm That area near the bahamas should be watched closely as it drifts into the gulf this weekend, could try to develop, some ensemble support showing
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 MJO looks it might try to stall in phase 2, that could spell big trouble because phase 2 typically means less recurving storms out to sea and more of a threat to the US
Around August 20: Euro-AI has a TS crossing FL into the Gulf. GFS has a TS in the Bay of Campeche.
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Stratton20
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Euro has a TS crossing over Cuba and into the gulf around the 20th
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tireman4
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Lots of Atlantic noise but virtually all of it over the open ocean
No direct threats to land at this time
The Eyewall and Matt Lanza
Aug 6
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In brief: A disturbance off the Carolina coast has a 40 percent chance to develop heading into the weekend, but it looks to remain offshore. Tropical Storm Dexter may intensity over the open Atlantic as it transitions from tropical to non-tropical late this week, no threat to land. The area in the deep Atlantic with 60 percent development odds remains worth watching but not likely to stir up too much trouble.
Tropical Atlantic
We'll continue our daily check up on the areas worth watching in the tropical Atlantic -- and speculate on what could come next.
Carolina coast
Starting closest to land today, some good news. The disturbance that's expected to attempt to develop off the coast of the Carolinas appears that it will be less stuck than it appeared earlier in the week. Again this morning, there just isn't a whole lot there yet.
The area we're watching off the Carolinas is void of much of anything still today. (Weathernerds.org)
Initially, the thought was that we'd see development gradually through the week, followed by a very slow-moving or stationary type system off the coast. The first half of that statement is still true. Development will be very sluggish here. We won't wake up to a tropical storm out of nowhere tomorrow. It may not be until Friday or Saturday that we see anything make a real effort to form. And from there, it now looks as though it will slowly but steadily move north and northeast, heading out to sea. Development odds have been pushed back to 40 percent this morning, indicating that this is not exactly expected to really get going once it does start to attempt development.
5-day rainfall totals peak at 3 to 5 inches near Myrtle Beach, with a widespread 2 to 4 inches between Cape Lookout and Florida. (Pivotal Weather)
In terms of impacts: Rainfall and rip currents are at the top of the list. You can see the 5-day forecast average rain totals above. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially today in interior North Carolina and Georgia, where flood watches are in effect.
You can see a broad slight risk (2/4) posted from the Piedmont south to the Georgia coast for today for heavy rain and flooding. (NOAA WPC)
A lot of the rain is actually front-loaded and not directly related to the system itself, but the whole pattern is connected. Rip current risk is moderate to high on the North Carolina coast, and if any development does actually occur offshore, that risk will hold into the weekend. Just something to be aware of if you're beaching it this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast.
Beaching it this weekend? Consider some light reading about the weather by becoming a free or paid subscriber!
Tropical Storm Dexter
Dexter continues to cling to life as it moves out to sea.
(NOAA/NHC)
Dexter is expected to become post-tropical tomorrow and end up north of the Azores by Sunday as a non-tropical low pressure. From there, Dexter's remnants end up getting tied into a storm system near or north of the British Isles by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. No big impacts are expected right now.
Tropical Storm Dexter has a lopsided appearance today. (Tropical Tidbits)
Dexter's thunderstorms have outpaced the system itself, with the center again almost exposed entirely this morning. That's a sign of an unhealthy storm. It's just not in the greatest environment right now, packed with wind shear. That said, tropical systems have a funny way of doing things when they transition to extratropical systems. In Dexter's case, while it may continue to look very sloppy, it's likely to increase in intensity, with winds possibly approaching hurricane-force at some point in the next couple days. Thankfully that will remain over the water, though some rough seas could be generated in Atlantic Canada.
Deep Atlantic
We are watching two areas in the Atlantic. There is the one being highlighted by the NHC with a 60 percent chance of development. There is also what will probably be the next highlighted area by the NHC in a day or two.
The tropical wave associated with 60% odds of development looks a bit better this morning, while the next wave emerges off Africa behind it. (Weathernerds.org)
The 60% area looks a good deal better this morning than it has the last couple of days. We will probably see some gradual organization attempt to occur from this one between now and Friday. I wouldn't be shocked if the 60 percent becomes a 70 or so by later today. In terms of this one's future, it will probably have a relatively low ceiling for intensity. But a depression or tropical storm seems like a decent possibility at this time.
As the system moves, it will be steered west northwest or even northwest at times around the periphery of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic. By the time it gets to the weekend, high pressure may strengthen somewhat and force to turn back more to the west for a short time. Eventually, it will likely hit the escape hatch and get drawn back northwest and north through a weakness in the high pressure across the basin.
The system in the Atlantic will be steered around high pressure in the middle of the Atlantic, but it should find a weakness in the pattern by early next week, allowing it to escape north and eventually out to sea. (Tropical Tidbits)
This should allow the system to ultimately turn out to sea. I would say it's probably worth continuing to monitor for the Caribbean or Southeast or Bermuda, but it's unlikely to stir up too much trouble.
On the image atop this section, I did highlight the area behind this disturbance as one to watch as well. Model guidance keeps this one a little more southward in the Basin, which could in theory allow it to get closer to more land in 10 to 12 days. There is very little consensus on this one yet though, so for now it's just probably the next area we'll watch but nothing more than that.
No direct threats to land at this time
The Eyewall and Matt Lanza
Aug 6
READ IN APP
In brief: A disturbance off the Carolina coast has a 40 percent chance to develop heading into the weekend, but it looks to remain offshore. Tropical Storm Dexter may intensity over the open Atlantic as it transitions from tropical to non-tropical late this week, no threat to land. The area in the deep Atlantic with 60 percent development odds remains worth watching but not likely to stir up too much trouble.
Tropical Atlantic
We'll continue our daily check up on the areas worth watching in the tropical Atlantic -- and speculate on what could come next.
Carolina coast
Starting closest to land today, some good news. The disturbance that's expected to attempt to develop off the coast of the Carolinas appears that it will be less stuck than it appeared earlier in the week. Again this morning, there just isn't a whole lot there yet.
The area we're watching off the Carolinas is void of much of anything still today. (Weathernerds.org)
Initially, the thought was that we'd see development gradually through the week, followed by a very slow-moving or stationary type system off the coast. The first half of that statement is still true. Development will be very sluggish here. We won't wake up to a tropical storm out of nowhere tomorrow. It may not be until Friday or Saturday that we see anything make a real effort to form. And from there, it now looks as though it will slowly but steadily move north and northeast, heading out to sea. Development odds have been pushed back to 40 percent this morning, indicating that this is not exactly expected to really get going once it does start to attempt development.
5-day rainfall totals peak at 3 to 5 inches near Myrtle Beach, with a widespread 2 to 4 inches between Cape Lookout and Florida. (Pivotal Weather)
In terms of impacts: Rainfall and rip currents are at the top of the list. You can see the 5-day forecast average rain totals above. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially today in interior North Carolina and Georgia, where flood watches are in effect.
You can see a broad slight risk (2/4) posted from the Piedmont south to the Georgia coast for today for heavy rain and flooding. (NOAA WPC)
A lot of the rain is actually front-loaded and not directly related to the system itself, but the whole pattern is connected. Rip current risk is moderate to high on the North Carolina coast, and if any development does actually occur offshore, that risk will hold into the weekend. Just something to be aware of if you're beaching it this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast.
Beaching it this weekend? Consider some light reading about the weather by becoming a free or paid subscriber!
Tropical Storm Dexter
Dexter continues to cling to life as it moves out to sea.
(NOAA/NHC)
Dexter is expected to become post-tropical tomorrow and end up north of the Azores by Sunday as a non-tropical low pressure. From there, Dexter's remnants end up getting tied into a storm system near or north of the British Isles by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. No big impacts are expected right now.
Tropical Storm Dexter has a lopsided appearance today. (Tropical Tidbits)
Dexter's thunderstorms have outpaced the system itself, with the center again almost exposed entirely this morning. That's a sign of an unhealthy storm. It's just not in the greatest environment right now, packed with wind shear. That said, tropical systems have a funny way of doing things when they transition to extratropical systems. In Dexter's case, while it may continue to look very sloppy, it's likely to increase in intensity, with winds possibly approaching hurricane-force at some point in the next couple days. Thankfully that will remain over the water, though some rough seas could be generated in Atlantic Canada.
Deep Atlantic
We are watching two areas in the Atlantic. There is the one being highlighted by the NHC with a 60 percent chance of development. There is also what will probably be the next highlighted area by the NHC in a day or two.
The tropical wave associated with 60% odds of development looks a bit better this morning, while the next wave emerges off Africa behind it. (Weathernerds.org)
The 60% area looks a good deal better this morning than it has the last couple of days. We will probably see some gradual organization attempt to occur from this one between now and Friday. I wouldn't be shocked if the 60 percent becomes a 70 or so by later today. In terms of this one's future, it will probably have a relatively low ceiling for intensity. But a depression or tropical storm seems like a decent possibility at this time.
As the system moves, it will be steered west northwest or even northwest at times around the periphery of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic. By the time it gets to the weekend, high pressure may strengthen somewhat and force to turn back more to the west for a short time. Eventually, it will likely hit the escape hatch and get drawn back northwest and north through a weakness in the high pressure across the basin.
The system in the Atlantic will be steered around high pressure in the middle of the Atlantic, but it should find a weakness in the pattern by early next week, allowing it to escape north and eventually out to sea. (Tropical Tidbits)
This should allow the system to ultimately turn out to sea. I would say it's probably worth continuing to monitor for the Caribbean or Southeast or Bermuda, but it's unlikely to stir up too much trouble.
On the image atop this section, I did highlight the area behind this disturbance as one to watch as well. Model guidance keeps this one a little more southward in the Basin, which could in theory allow it to get closer to more land in 10 to 12 days. There is very little consensus on this one yet though, so for now it's just probably the next area we'll watch but nothing more than that.
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Stratton20
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Might be watching the caribbean late this weekend into next week, and potentially the gulf in 8-10 days, very interesting little disturbance/ wave SE of the leeward island thats starting to get models a little bit excited, environmental conditions dont look hostile in the caribbean , might be something to watch in the coming days
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