May 2025

[Cromagnum]

Crazy storms today in the hill country. Areas along 105 need to watch out later this afternoon.

[Cpv17]

Last few runs of the HRRR are beginning to look interesting for me in Wharton County this evening.

[suprdav2]

What are we thinking about this afternoon/evening in Harris county as far as severe storms like hail/tornado threat? Or do you think most of that mess with be mainly a north of 105 event?

[jasons2k]

HRRR forecast later, near The Kingwood area

[jasons2k]

Updated, near Louetta and Kuykendahl.
Hard to get my house on my phone but close enough. You get the point.

[Texas Deadhead]

I don’t get the idea. I assume it means things could get very ugly this afternoon?

[MH5]

Looks like the radar is starting to fill in out west near Katy/Cypress back towards Hempstead in the warm sector out in front of the main line. This is the area I’d keep an eye out for.. if one or two of these can get established and remain discrete, watch out.

[tireman4]

I don’t get the idea. I assume it means things could get very ugly this afternoon?

Let me put it this way, the Skew T that Jason just posted is very ominous. The factors are there for significant storm production. You have lift, temperature and turn. When the two lines are that close together, the chances for severe weather increase greatly.

[tireman4]

AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Currently under a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions over much of SE
TX. There are several hazards for this afternoon and into this
evening across our CWA, including strong to severe storms capable
of producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The more
vulnerable areas for these hazards are N of I-10; however, strong
to severe storms can also occur elsewhere. Frequent lightning and
strong VRB winds can be expected in and around storms. Periods of
LIFR- IFR is possible due to low cigs and reduced vis. Be mindful
of downburst, llvl WS, and +RA through at least early tonight.

For tonight, chance of showers and storms will ebb, although
areas along and south of I-10 may see pockets of strong storms
from time to time. Winds will become VRB overnight and relax to
3-6 KTS. With wet grounds and light winds, we could see areas of
patchy fog developing overnight into early Wed morning and result
in MVFR or IFR conditions. Showers and storms are expected to
increase during the morning/afternoon hours as a slow moving cold
front moves through. Some storms could be strong to severe and may
be capable of producing hail, strong winds, and isolated/brief
tornadoes.

Cotto (24)

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Tue May 06 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Texas and Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061859Z - 070059Z

SUMMARY...Organized line of thunderstorms with hourly rates up to 3 inches expected to continue sliding eastward while additional merging cells along a warm front increase the potential for 5 inch totals, likely resulting in areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E CH9 WV loop this afternoon depicts a picturesque upper low churning over the southern High Plains with an expansive area of increased ascent extending to the east and north, with a well-organized line of thunderstorms entering eastern TX along a cold front. Additionally, a surface warm front extends eastward from the squall line across southern LA, with low-to-mid 70s dew points south of the front and 60s north. PWATs continue to creep upward and are generally 1.7-2.0" in the highlighted area, but will continue to rise above 2.0" across a larger region of the central Gulf Coast per the RAP. The 06z ECWMF highlights these values as exceeding the 99th percentile when compared to climatology.

Rainfall totals up to 3 inches have been observed from this line near Round Rock, TX and are expected to maintain or increase in intensity through this evening given the increasing moisture and daytime instability being advected northward. Helping this northward advection is a potent 40-50kt 850mb jet extending into eastern TX as of 18z.

Recent HRRR runs support the potential for hourly rates up to 3 inches and 5 inch totals, with the 12z HREF highlighting widespread 20-50% chances for 3-hrly totals greater than 3 inches in the MPD area. Although, the HRRR has been developing too much leading convection compared to current radar data. Outside of the eastern extent of the Texas Triangle, where 3-hrly FFGs are under 3 inches, much of LA does have elevated FFG that could inhibit the initial impacts of heavy rainfall. However, for southern sections of LA along the warm front, thunderstorms are anticipated to remain less progressive and oriented more west-east (similar to the mean wind) by this evening. Current convection near Baton Rouge shows this potential for slow-moving warm frontal storms that may continue and congeal with the approaching line. Scattered flash flooding is likely within this area, with greatest potential for significant impacts where convection is slower to progress on the southern flank from east-central TX through central LA.

Snell

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

[tireman4]

A couple of observations:

1. That Skew T really looks ominous. The chance for severe thunderstorms is greatly increased. The main threats, hail and downburst winds. Tornadoes are a distinct possibility with the thunderstorms within the area circled by Jeff
2. What a horrible time for NOAA weather radio to be down. If folks lose electricity and or cell coverage, the radio is the best way for information.
3. Please be weather aware today and tonight. Things can rapidly change within this time frame.

[jasons2k]

Those cells moving into Golden Triangle need to be watched.

[tireman4]

From Max Velocity

[tireman4]

HRRR run that Jason was alluding to

[tireman4]

Radar

[Cromagnum]

Houston rush hour, especially on the north side, should be chaotic. That line is coming in right during peak heating.

[Rip76]

Looks a bit more stable than first thought.

[Texas Deadhead]

I don’t get the idea. I assume it means things could get very ugly this afternoon?

Let me put it this way, the Skew T that Jason just posted is very ominous. The factors are there for significant storm production. You have lift, temperature and turn. When the two lines are that close together, the chances for severe weather increase greatly.

Thank you very much!

[Pas_Bon]

HRRR run that Jason was alluding to

Latest HRRR (and other mesoscale models) seem to leave Galveston/Brazoria/Southern Chambers Counties high and dry - even factoring in the Mexican disturbance, as latest runs show this nudging offshore prior to reaching these latitudes.