Would be nice to see aurora borealis.
April 2025
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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427
FXUS64 KHGX 171035
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
535 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
The later half of the work week is setting up to be warm and
breezy. A combination of southerly flow at the surface and
southwesterly flow aloft will bring warmer temperatures and
humidity. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s
today, and then upper 80s with some isolated pockets of low 90s
possible on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low
70s both tonight and Friday night.
A 925mb LLJ of 30-40kt will be developing this evening that persists
through Friday. Some of these strong winds are expected to mix
down to the surface leading to gusts to 20-25mph tonight through
Friday.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Our meteorological tea leaves are sensing a pattern change in the
long term. For those yearning for rain, the news of change will be
well received. But for those of you hoping to carry out outdoor
plans on Easter Sunday, these changes may not be as well received.
So let`s dive right into it!
The synoptic pattern will be in significant flux this weekend, as
a deep layer, long wave trough digs over W CONUS on Saturday. The
trough initially digs into W CONUS with a fairly positive tilt.
This tilt takes on a more neutral shape as the trough axis pushes
east of the spine of the Rocky Mountains on Sunday. The resulting
LL pattern will continue to enhance onshore flow, giving the air
an increasingly humid feel as we head into the weekend. Saturday
is expected to be warm, breezy, and humid. Global guidance suggest
the presence of vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft well ahead
of the trough. The resulting PVA may provide enough lift to spark
isolated or even scattered showers and thunderstorms by Saturday,
especially across our northern counties. But the better chance of
showers and thunderstorms occurs on Sunday as the system becomes a
well stacked low pressure system that accelerates northeastward
from W Texas into E Kansas.
The aforementioned low`s trailing cold front is expected to
slowly push southeast across our CWA on Sunday into early Monday.
The boundary itself may gradually become more diffuse during this
time. However, this boundary will be in an atmosphere featuring
ample high bulk shear and moderate to high instability (sfc CAPE
1000-2000 j/KG). At a minimum, we think there is a decent chance
of scattered showers and at least isolated thunderstorms on
Sunday. However, given the instability, shear, and general
synoptic parameters in place, we cannot rule out a few stronger
thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. This forecast is far enough into
the future to contain an amount of uncertainty that warrants
checking the forecast for updates. The best chance of an Easter
thunderstorm will likely depend on on the position of the boundary
as well as how much and how fast mid/upper vorticity maxima
consolidates near the low. A rapid consolidation could rob SE TX
the needed lift for more widespread deep convection, leaving us
more in the realm of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
So I won`t go as far to say that Easter Sunday`s set up is a slam
dunk for heavy thunderstorms but it certainly warrants keeping an
eye on.
A zonal-ish flow pattern sets up over the Lone Star State early
next week. But with a train of disturbances embedded in the flow
aloft (as per global guidance), don`t expect those rain chances to
fall to zero. In fact, most long range data suggest increasing
rain chances by the middle of the next week. Our dry and parched
yards may finally getting the drink they deserve.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
CLL and UTS has had on and off MVFR conditions through the night
with CIGs around 2000ft, and this will likely continue into the
mid morning hours. But then, VFR conditions are expected across
the region through this evening with some SCT clouds around
2000-4000ft. Southerly winds will pick up by the late morning
with sustained winds around 10-15kt and gusts to 20-25kt that will
continue through sunset. These winds then diminish at the surface,
but a LLJ of 30-40kt at around 2500ft will persist through the
night with gusts to 20-25kt returning to the surface Friday
morning. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 2000ft are looking more
likely tonight for most of the region, starting at the coast near
midnight then expanding northwards through the night.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
A large fetch of south and southeast winds will set up across the
western Gulf. This will be felt via moderate to fresh south to
southeast winds and increasing seas. Caution flags may be
warranted as early as today while winds and offshore seas approach
Small Craft Advisory levels by Friday and Saturday. Speaking of
seas, it`s possible that significant wave heights could reach 8-9
feet over the weekend. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
increases Sunday into Monday. Although winds and seas next week
are expected to be lower, the chance of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to continue into next week.
Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 68 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 72 81 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 171035
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
535 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
The later half of the work week is setting up to be warm and
breezy. A combination of southerly flow at the surface and
southwesterly flow aloft will bring warmer temperatures and
humidity. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 80s
today, and then upper 80s with some isolated pockets of low 90s
possible on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low
70s both tonight and Friday night.
A 925mb LLJ of 30-40kt will be developing this evening that persists
through Friday. Some of these strong winds are expected to mix
down to the surface leading to gusts to 20-25mph tonight through
Friday.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
Our meteorological tea leaves are sensing a pattern change in the
long term. For those yearning for rain, the news of change will be
well received. But for those of you hoping to carry out outdoor
plans on Easter Sunday, these changes may not be as well received.
So let`s dive right into it!
The synoptic pattern will be in significant flux this weekend, as
a deep layer, long wave trough digs over W CONUS on Saturday. The
trough initially digs into W CONUS with a fairly positive tilt.
This tilt takes on a more neutral shape as the trough axis pushes
east of the spine of the Rocky Mountains on Sunday. The resulting
LL pattern will continue to enhance onshore flow, giving the air
an increasingly humid feel as we head into the weekend. Saturday
is expected to be warm, breezy, and humid. Global guidance suggest
the presence of vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft well ahead
of the trough. The resulting PVA may provide enough lift to spark
isolated or even scattered showers and thunderstorms by Saturday,
especially across our northern counties. But the better chance of
showers and thunderstorms occurs on Sunday as the system becomes a
well stacked low pressure system that accelerates northeastward
from W Texas into E Kansas.
The aforementioned low`s trailing cold front is expected to
slowly push southeast across our CWA on Sunday into early Monday.
The boundary itself may gradually become more diffuse during this
time. However, this boundary will be in an atmosphere featuring
ample high bulk shear and moderate to high instability (sfc CAPE
1000-2000 j/KG). At a minimum, we think there is a decent chance
of scattered showers and at least isolated thunderstorms on
Sunday. However, given the instability, shear, and general
synoptic parameters in place, we cannot rule out a few stronger
thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. This forecast is far enough into
the future to contain an amount of uncertainty that warrants
checking the forecast for updates. The best chance of an Easter
thunderstorm will likely depend on on the position of the boundary
as well as how much and how fast mid/upper vorticity maxima
consolidates near the low. A rapid consolidation could rob SE TX
the needed lift for more widespread deep convection, leaving us
more in the realm of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
So I won`t go as far to say that Easter Sunday`s set up is a slam
dunk for heavy thunderstorms but it certainly warrants keeping an
eye on.
A zonal-ish flow pattern sets up over the Lone Star State early
next week. But with a train of disturbances embedded in the flow
aloft (as per global guidance), don`t expect those rain chances to
fall to zero. In fact, most long range data suggest increasing
rain chances by the middle of the next week. Our dry and parched
yards may finally getting the drink they deserve.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
CLL and UTS has had on and off MVFR conditions through the night
with CIGs around 2000ft, and this will likely continue into the
mid morning hours. But then, VFR conditions are expected across
the region through this evening with some SCT clouds around
2000-4000ft. Southerly winds will pick up by the late morning
with sustained winds around 10-15kt and gusts to 20-25kt that will
continue through sunset. These winds then diminish at the surface,
but a LLJ of 30-40kt at around 2500ft will persist through the
night with gusts to 20-25kt returning to the surface Friday
morning. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 2000ft are looking more
likely tonight for most of the region, starting at the coast near
midnight then expanding northwards through the night.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
A large fetch of south and southeast winds will set up across the
western Gulf. This will be felt via moderate to fresh south to
southeast winds and increasing seas. Caution flags may be
warranted as early as today while winds and offshore seas approach
Small Craft Advisory levels by Friday and Saturday. Speaking of
seas, it`s possible that significant wave heights could reach 8-9
feet over the weekend. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
increases Sunday into Monday. Although winds and seas next week
are expected to be lower, the chance of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to continue into next week.
Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 68 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 72 81 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
Yeah, this is what I'm expecting for the next week. NWS still had a good chance of rain beginning Saturday night, but color me skeptical on anything significant.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Euro has 2-5 inches for se texas, Uncle Canadian agrees with the Euro, GFS as usual is too dry, its always late to the model party!
What timeframe is it showing 2-5" for? This weekend? Sunday - Thursday?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 17, 2025 2:18 pm Euro has 2-5 inches for se texas, Uncle Canadian agrees with the Euro, GFS as usual is too dry, its always late to the model party!
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Pas_Bon pretty much all week long, tuesday- wednesday could end up being the wettest period though
We'll see with the 0z. I predict College Station gets gapped.
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Euro- AI is learning...that we're screwed. 1.2 inches would be better than nothing...
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The WPC has issued a Moderate Risk for flooding here tomorrow and the HRRR shows almost 5 inches this weekend… My time being up here I have noticed there is such a big difference in rainfall amounts between here and the Panhandle. It seems to be much harder for the Panhandle and West Texas to get heavy rainfall compared to here. This region along the I-44 corridor seems to be a favored spot for heavy rain events, as frontal boundary’s will slow down over the area especially when you have a stout SE ridge in place.
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Last edited by don on Fri Apr 18, 2025 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS continues to be the dry outlier, CMC/ Euro solitions look more believable as the frontal boundary eventually stalls in se texas, I think. 2-4 inches widespread across the region ( Sunday- thursday) look pretty good, with maybe some isolated 6+ totals in spots
Euro, CMC, Ensembles are coming in much wetter.
I guess I'm mowing tomorrow am. Can I get away without watering?
That wind is no joke today. S25 G38
I guess I'm mowing tomorrow am. Can I get away without watering?
That wind is no joke today. S25 G38
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I would be so happy with this!
Coincidentally, I just checked my trusty WUnderground app and they dropped my previously 80% chances Sun/Mon to 50% for League City
I wonder what model they’re basing it off of.
Nice forecast
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The 0z Euro has about 4-8” of rain across SE TX over the next couple weeks.
Well, now WUnderground shows just over 0.10” and lower rain chances tomorrow and Monday. Ugh.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
While not as aggressive, it definitely seems as if the WPC is buying more into the Euro compared to the GFS, some brighter colors over se texas in last nights update, now has about 2-4 inches widespread for se texas
I don't like the look of things today and tomorrow. The energy and low seem like they will eject north.. The back yard is parched. No streamer showers in sight.
NWS is depending on the FROPA to trigger showers tomorrow. Seems like a south of Hwy 1*5 event. We'll see.
Midweek looks unsettled with the front backing up and serving as a trigger with daytime heating - so that's the main hope in B/CS.
NWS is depending on the FROPA to trigger showers tomorrow. Seems like a south of Hwy 1*5 event. We'll see.
Midweek looks unsettled with the front backing up and serving as a trigger with daytime heating - so that's the main hope in B/CS.
Things are dynamic up by Don.
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