February 2025

[DoctorMu]

It became pretty apparent a couple of days ago that forecasted temps were too high. We also got a little ice early in the day. I had frozen leaves and bird poop on my car. I made the mistake of trying to clean it off and ended up with stage 1 frostbite on my hands. I can tell you never again.

My heart goes out to the homeless, both human and otherwise. May God keep them safe. Please provide shelter where you can?

In other news.. My last cystoscopy shows no tumors. God is indeed good.

Awesome news, love to hear that.

Great news1

[DoctorMu]

It’s already freezing here and it wasn’t supposed to hit freezing until tonight.
It’s pretty miserable outside right now. Cloudy, windy and cold, the trifecta of hell.

23°F IMFY, 24°F at the airport. And it's not going to exceed 30°F today. Cold, dense air overperforms again.

Wind chill of 7°F. with N20 G31 Here's your single digit wind chill, stratton! (aren't you near Katy now?)

High of 26°F, low of 23°F for Wednesday. About 30°F below normal.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yes im back in katy haha

[jasons2k]

Down to 24.7 here. Cold but nothing record-breaking. Hopefully this is the bottom. I’m ready to plant flowers now.

Edit: hit 24.6 at 8:30am

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Cold weather advisories will remain in place for this morning and again tonight.

Sub-freezing at all areas this morning except Galveston (33).

Cold arctic high pressure is now fully entrenched over the area with widespread freezing conditions in place. At 700am temperatures range from the low 20’s in the Huntsville to College Station to Columbus areas to mid to upper 20’s across the rest of the region. When combined with north winds of 10-20mph wind chills are in the 1’s and 10’s over the area. HRRR guidance handled the freeze line well yesterday and the overnight lows this morning and will be following it closely for temperature trends today. Main question is can we break up the low level stratus deck and allow a bit of heating…this did not happen yesterday…but the cloud deck has eroded from the north overnight…interestingly one can see a cloud enhancement streak that extends from Lake Livingston to eastern Harris County as a result of the very cold air passing over the “warmer” lake waters. If clouds are able to clear some today those areas will reach toward the lower 40’s otherwise areas that remain cloudy will stay in the mid 30’s. HRRR only slowly brings the area above freezing later this morning, but it may be hanging on to clouds a bit too long.

Another widespread freeze is expected tonight with lows generally 2-3 degrees warmer than this morning…cold air advection will begin to shut off as the arctic surface high shifts eastward and may get a bit of warm air advection toward morning. Pesky low levels will likely begin to redevelop and expand as Gulf moisture begins to increase into the area and this will cap highs in the 30’s for all areas on Friday.

Coastal system forms off the lower Texas coast Friday and will move across the coastal Gulf waters on Saturday with increasing chances for light rain, drizzle, and fog. Saturday will continue the streak of miserably cold days with temperatures holding in the 40’s with widespread clouds and increasing rain chances. May need to keep an eye out west early Saturday morning (Columbus to College Station region) for a small amount of freezing drizzle/rain if we actually get any precipitation going early enough with low temperatures around 31-32…think this is a very low probability, but with super-cooled surfaces only a very small amount of precipitation could cause a few icy patches. Not expecting any freezing precipitation in the metro area with temperatures warming above freezing prior to the onset of light rain and drizzle. Clouds and showers begin to shift eastward on Sunday, but Sunday will be another cold day with highs in the 50’s.

Much warmer conditions for next week with clearing skies and southerly winds which will increase temperatures into the 70’s and maybe 80’s by mid week. Dewpoints will surge into the 50’s/60’s which will be warmer than the recently chilled nearshore and bays waters…so get ready for sea fog and potentially a prolonged period of it.


Forecasted Lows Friday AM:

IMG_8209.jpeg

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[MontgomeryCoWx]

19 in Weimar this morning. Felt good walking the dogs.

[jasons2k]

Stratus clouds staring to break apart on satellite.

[tireman4]

386
FXUS64 KHGX 201127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Cold air reigns over Southeast Texas, and with temperatures in the
20s and wind chills ranging from the teens to lower 20s early this
morning, the extreme cold warning and cold weather advisories
continue through late this morning. Some key points from the
forecast:

- Keep the 4 P`s in mind as winter comes back for another visit!
People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes are all vulnerable to very cold
temperatures and wind chills when exposed and unprotected.
- You`ll want to keep everything protected again tonight as well.
Though both temperatures and wind chills don`t look to fall
quite as far as we`re seeing this morning, it will still be
unseasonably cold and low enough to cause issues with prolonged
exposure. A cold weather advisory is in place for tonight
through tomorrow morning.
- We begin a gradual warming trend through the weekend into next
week, but the price of that is the return of rain, primarily
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

We are fully in the grip of the strong Plains high. As the
central pressure of the cell is down to 1042 mb now and the low
pressure in the Gulf has moved off, we find ourselves in a weaker
pressure gradient, and winds are slowly (oh so slowly) beginning
to diminish, with sustained wind speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts
into the 20s. We could very well actually be colder, but a low
cloud deck stubbornly refuses to clear out, hampering nighttime
cooling.

Through Friday night, this large high pressure feature remains the
dominant surface feature. It will weaken a little bit more into
the 1030s as it drifts east towards the Ohio Valley, and winds
will be expected to become more northeasterly tonight while
continuing the trend of slow, gradual weakening. The stratus deck
should (finally!) scatter out today, and though it won`t help us
warm up too much...we should at least manage to snag 5-10 degrees
above yesterday`s very cold conditions. We should see wind chills
rise above the thresholds for the morning`s extreme cold warning
and cold weather advisories around 10 am, but don`t expect much
improvement on that. My highs are around or colder than average
lows.

Tonight looks to be cold again, but at least as the low level
ridge axis passes through, we should largely shut off the cold
advection tap. That said, with lighter surface winds and less
cloud cover, we should see better radiational cooling. I`ve
tentatively got conditions that are still quite cold, but the
10/15 degree threshold for an extreme cold warning should be safe
(key word: should). We`ll start with an area-wide cold weather
advisory with wind chills down into the teens and lower 20s
expected.

Cold conditions stick with us tomorrow, albeit with a slightly
different nuance. With low level onshore flow returning (but
surface flow remaining northeasterly), we should expect to see low
clouds come back in with isentropic lift off the Gulf, and that
will keep temperatures mired in the upper 30s and low 40s for yet
another day. On the plus side, the significant cloud cover will
keep things from getting quite so cold (or really much colder at
all). We may need to be on the lookout for some low rain chances,
but given the moisture return we`ll need to get for showers, I
expect that will probably hold off until Saturday and the long
term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

For those longing for a sunny weekend, I give to you my apologies.
A robust mid/upper trough will progress eastward over SW CONUS and
into Texas, introducing large scale lift over our region. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop along a steep baroclinic zone
offshore. A veering vertical wind profile will keep chilly NE flow
near the surface, while a more southerly flow aloft lifts Gulf
moisture over the shallow dense cold air below.
This will set the stage for increasing rain changes and continued
chilly temperatures on Saturday. Much of the CWA is expected to
remain in the 40s, with 50s near the coast. Large scale lift reaches
its peak by Sunday, coinciding with the highest rain chances.
Temperatures are forecast to be warmer, but not necessarily `warm`
with highs in the 50s.

The pattern becomes quieter for us next week as temperatures trend
warmer. By mid-week, highs across the CWA are forecast to be in the
75-80 degree range (cooler at the coast) with lows in the 50s.
Despite the generally quieter pattern, rising dew points over the
recently chilled Gulf and bay waters should increase the risk of sea
fog by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

MVFR deck has steadfastly refused to quit, and it appears they
will hang tough through much/all of the morning. CLL and UTS are
nearest the back edge and have them returning to VFR first at
15/16Z. Other terminals will take longer, but have VFR for all but
GLS by 19Z, and GLS shortly behind at 21Z.

Northerly and strong/gusty winds at outset should slowly lose
frequent gusts, and very slowly diminish to less than 10 knots
late this afternoon/this evening. At very end of the period,
clouds return with VFR CIGs. Some guidance suggests some spotty
MVFR right around 12Z, but will optimistically leave that out for
now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Winds and seas will continue to gradually decrease today. However,
hazardous winds and seas are likely to linger, especially over the
Gulf. Low water conditions are possible around low tide cycles,
mainly in the northern bays. A coastal low will develop along the
Coastal Bend and track across the Upper Texas coastal waters this
weekend bringing periods of unsettled weather including elevated
winds and seas by Friday. Small Craft Advisories over the Gulf could
be extended through Saturday, potentially Sunday. The low will also
increase the chance of rain. Weather conditions should improve late
Sunday into early next week. However, the risk of sea fog increases
by the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 38 25 38 33 / 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 42 29 40 38 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 43 35 46 42 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-176-
177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235.

Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ164-
178-179-200-214-236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[jasons2k]

One thing that’s pretty remarkable about this event is the gradient, when you consider that Galveston never even got to freezing.

[DoctorMu]

19 in Weimar this morning. Felt good walking the dogs.

Same here. 19°F for the low IMFY. Sunny and 25° now.

[DoctorMu]

It looks like we'll hit my predicted 36 straight hours of freezing or sub-freezing temps. I think we'll sneak up to 35°F this afternoon.

The cold air has (over-performed) as advertised. Sorry, not sorry 57

[jasons2k]

Finally, back up to 33 at noon!

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

VFR conditions have developed across the area over the past hour
or so with the dissipation of the cloud deck previously in place.
Winds will remain out of the north today, shifting slightly to the
northeast later this afternoon and then to the east-northeast
tonight. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible today at times,
with wind speeds relaxing overnight. Cigs should return tomorrow
morning, but should remain around 4000-6000 ft.

Cady

[mcheer23]

One thing that’s pretty remarkable about this event is the gradient, when you consider that Galveston never even got to freezing.

Galveston VERY briefly reached 32.

[jasons2k]

One thing that’s pretty remarkable about this event is the gradient, when you consider that Galveston never even got to freezing.

Galveston VERY briefly reached 32.

Wow, 33.1 steady from Midnight to 9am but somewhere in there, 32 shows in the Min report. Interesting.

[jasons2k]

Overrunning clouds approaching quickly from the southwest now. Should arrive around sunset and keep temps from dropping too much tonight.

[tireman4]

515
FXUS64 KHGX 202150
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Despite cloud cover lingering for a bit longer than expected this
morning, we were eventually able to break the 40 degree mark this
afternoon at most of our observational sites thanks to more
efficient diurnal heating and a slight weakening of CAA. Still,
we remain in the midst of a period of temperatures that will be
well below normal that will stretch into the weekend. Robust high
pressure remains in place at the surface over the Central Plains,
and is expected to shift to the east very slowly over the next 48
hours. This will maintain a northeasterly surface wind for the
time being, with moisture return not expected until early next
week. Saturation in the midlevels will once again see the
development of midlevel clouds, which could inhibit cooling
somewhat. Still, overnight lows will once again drop below
freezing for much of the area tonight - into the low 20s for the
northern zones and the upper 20s to lower 30s across Greater
Houston. The immediate coast should remain just above the freezing
mark. A Cold Weather Advisory is expected to remain in place
until late tomorrow morning, with a Warning unlikely thanks to
weaker winds keeping wind chill values above issuance thresholds.

Despite further reductions to CAA tomorrow, widespread cloud cover
will linger into the afternoon and as such high temperatures are
expected to be similar to those of today with most locations
around 40. Models continue to show the development of a weak low
pressure system in the Western Gulf that will track towards the SE
TX coast this weekend. Rain chances remain near zero through late
Friday, aside from the chance of an isolated shower offshore (rain
chances around 20%). Overnight lows on Friday should stay just
above freezing, thanks to continued cloud cover and weaker CAA.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

We`will transition from cold to rainy weather this weekend along
with a gradual warming trend into the upcoming week.

Unsettled weather returns this weekend in response to an approaching
surface trough just off the coast of South TX, and upper-lvl trough
traversing the southern Plains. Healthy isentropic lift on the 295k
layer, along with increasing theta-e advection will result in a
dreary Saturday with periods of light rain and/or drizzle under
mostly cloudy skies. Below normal temperatures continue with highs
only reaching the mid 40s to low 50s (coast). Rain/storms become
more scattered/widespread in the evening and night as the
aforementioned surface low lifts north across the Upper TX coast and
PVA increases with height with the passage of the upper low. As of
now, rainfall totals up to an inch will be possible inland with the
highest amounts (1-2 inches possible) near Galveston, and Bolivar
Peninsula. Showers/storms will be ongoing on Sunday before tapering
off from west to east during the day.

Sfc high pressure builds across the central CONUS on Monday, moving
east throughout the week. This pattern will lead to southerly flow,
hence, above normal temperatures. Look for high temperatures mainly
in the 70s, potentially reaching the low 80s by mid-week. Overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s. Rain chances will remain very minimal
through the end of the long-term.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

VFR conditions have developed across the area over the past hour
or so with the dissipation of the cloud deck previously in place.
Winds will remain out of the north today, shifting slightly to the
northeast later this afternoon and then to the east-northeast
tonight. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible today at times,
with wind speeds relaxing overnight. Cigs should return tomorrow
morning, but should remain around 4000-6000 ft.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Winds have temporarily decreased, but still in the 13-23kt range.
they`ll pick back up overnight however and we`ll go with caution
flags nearshore/bays and an advsy offshore. Nearshore trends will be
monitored for a possible upgrade to an advsy prior to sunrise.
Marginal low water conditions are possible around low tide cycles,
mainly in the northern bays where levels of -0.5 to -1.0 are a
possibility. A coastal low will develop along the Coastal Bend and
track across the Upper Texas coastal waters this weekend bringing
periods of unsettled weather including elevated winds and seas as
time progresses Friday into Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories
over the Gulf could be extended. The low will also increase the
chance of rain. Weather conditions should improve late Sunday into
early next week. However, the risk of sea fog increases by Tue-
Wed. The next front is penciled in Wed night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 26 38 33 44 / 0 0 0 40
Houston (IAH) 29 40 36 48 / 0 0 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 35 44 42 53 / 0 0 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Friday
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight
through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42

[jasons2k]

Temp starting to rise a little now as the clouds thicken overhead.

[djmike]

Yeah only got down to 29. Was supposed to be 25. Clouds rolled in overnight.

[jasons2k]

33 here with a forecast low of 27. Bust after bust after bust…