jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:20 am
I’m not a fan of replacing the Wind Chill Advisories with Cold Weather Advisories. Now there’s no distinction between the two and it’s confusing for people. Sometimes new isn’t better. I’m a big believer in when they dumb things down, it just makes things worse.
Anyway, looking like the 27-28 range at my place Thursday AM, nothing extraordinary for February 20. A lot of things are already blooming so it’s a good thing it’s not getting colder than that!!
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 3:01 pm
On the "We'll see" front next winter could be an El Niño one with an active SJT and less of a chance of arctic incursions. You know know, though.
I’m not too big on El Niño winters. They’ve been pretty blah lately. I prefer the weak Niña winters.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Big changes ahead! An Arctic cold front is on its way to
southeast Texas, bringing rain/storm chances and very cold
conditions in its wake.
As of 1:30 pm, the cold front was extending along and west of a line
from Dallas/Fort Worth to San Angelo to Midland. Ahead of this line,
abundant cloud cover and scattered light showers have prevailed. The
cold front is moving faster than previous forecasts... being
close to the Brazos Valley area by 5-6 PM, close to the Houston
metro area around 8pm, and off the coast after 10 PM. The
potential timing for moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated
thunderstorms will be later this afternoon and evening as the
front reaches our region. Some of strongest cells may produce
heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr, with the
highest probabilities just east of the Houston metro area, towards
Chambers and Liberty Counties. This risk is depicted well on the
Day 1 WPC`s Outlook, where the region is under a Marginal Risk
(risk 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Severe weather risk is low;
however, cannot rule out hail and gusty winds with some of the
strongest storms. Showers should gradually end from west to east
late this evening.
After the rain, comes the cold and wind. Strong cold air advection
will filter in, bringing gusty north winds and a colder airmass
into the region. Winds from 15 to 25 mph are expected across most
inland counties, and from 20 to 30 mph along the Islands right
behind the front. Higher gusts expected. Therefore, the Wind
Advisory has been expanded to include inland counties and is now
in effect from 9 PM until Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints
will quickly drop overnight as very cold air filters in. The
combination of cold temperatures and windy conditions will lead to
wind chills as low as 10 degF by early Wednesday across the
Brazos Valley area and surrounding areas. Cold Weather Advisories
remain in effect until 10 AM Wednesday. In terms of wintry
precipitation, chances are very low but non-zero. Some hi-res
forecast soundings, including the NAM suggest some light freezing
drizzle late tonight, mainly north/west of a line from Brenham to
Huntsville to Trinity. Profiles remain saturated with both,
temperatures and wet bulb temperatures falling below zero below
the 925 mb layer. This is pretty borderline, in fact, based on
latest NBM, the probability of getting freezing rain is below 5
percent. One of the main factors to our favor will be gusty
conditions. Winds will remain elevated behind the front, enough to
dry any particle before it reaches the ground. For now, have kept
a dry forecast behind the front, but keep in mind elevated
surfaces and overpasses may be slippery overnight/tomorrow
morning.
Fortunately, temperatures will climb up above freezing on Wednesday
with highs in the 40s areawide. However, windy conditions and partly
to mostly cloudy skies will keep wind chills mainly in the upper 20s
and upper 30s. Be ready for blustery conditions. Practice the 4 P`s
cold weather safety by protecting you, Pets, Plants and Pipes. Cold
weather doesn`t stop here...a colder night is yet to come Wednesday
night into Thursday. More details in the long term discussion.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Strong CAA continues into Wednesday night, but northerly winds
subside a bit for areas away from the coast/the bays. Combine that
with few to scattered cloud cover and we have our coldest night
of the month so far. Expect widespread below freezing temperatures
with a hard freeze for the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods and a
light freeze elsewhere (except along the coast). That northerly
breeze will still be enough to make it feel much colder on
Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Wind chill values will range
from the single digits to the teens for most areas across the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and areas west of I-45. Elsewhere, we
can expect wind chill values in the upper teens to low 20s. As a
result, an Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for most of Southeast
Texas during this timeframe. There will be a mixture of Extreme
Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories, but either way just
know that it`s going to be very cold. Be sure to take the proper
precautions to protect the four P`s (people, pets, plants, pipes).
Stay warm and use caution if using portable heaters, bring your
pets indoors, cover your plants or move them indoors, and take the
proper precautions to protect exterior pipes (especially for those
in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods).
Plentiful sunshine returns on Thursday as strong surface high
pressure moves closer and lingering moisture is pushed further into
the Gulf. This will help daytime temperatures reach the low to mid
40s. Another freeze is expected on Thursday night with low
temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s. With light-ish
northeasterly winds for most of the night, we`ll only see wind chill
values in the 20s. Thursday night is also when we begin to set the
stage for our next weather system. Strong surface high pressure
remains in the central CONUS as surface low pressure begins to
develop in the western Gulf. This will tighten the pressure gradient
leading to increasing winds...looks like we`ll be borderline for
another coastal Wind Advisory going into Friday afternoon. Due to
increasing moisture/cloud cover, daytime temperatures on Friday will
actually be the coldest of the period and only reach the upper 30s
to low 40s.
Rain chances increase as well from late Friday into the weekend as
moisture surges northward from the coastal low drifting northward
along the TX Gulf Coast. Widespread showers are expected throughout
the entire day on Saturday making the first half of the weekend a
cold and wet day...expect highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the
30s/40s. Those with outdoor plans for the first weekend of Mardi
Gras should plan on dressing to stay both warm and dry. Drier air
moves in on Sunday as surface high pressure moves in again leading
to the second half of the weekend being sunny with highs in the low
60s and lows in the 40s. The warming trend continues into early next
week though as we make our trek back to the 70s. This will continue
our trend this month of either being well above normal or well below
normal...with a couple of normal-ish days mixed in.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
A mix of MVFR to high-end IFR ceilings can be expected this
afternoon, along with periods of light showers. A cold front is
expected to move through Southeast TX late this afternoon/early
evening. At the moment, the time of arrival of the front is around
00Z Wed near CLL, between 02-03Z Wed near IAH/HOU and after 05Z at
GLS. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
boundary, with showers tapering off from west to east late this
evening. Behind the front, gusty northwest to north winds are
expected. Gusts in excess of 30 knots are possible at times.
Ceilings should gradually improve to MVFR and VFR by Wednesday
morning.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Cold front will be making its way off the coast by 10pm or so. Ahead
of the front, moderate east winds and some 2-6sm fog can be
expected. In addition, hires guidance shows an uptick in scattered
storm coverage in the region late this afternoon & evening. Cannot
rule out an isolated strong cell or two. Behind the front, Gale
Warnings are in effect for all waters. North winds will be
increasing to 30kt with gusts to 40kt (and higher at elevated
platforms, etc). These speeds will prevail into a good part of the
day Wed before slightly diminishing. Though PETSS guidance isn`t too
excited about low water conditions Wed-Thurs, we`ll still need to
keep an eye on the potential around low tide cycles. Moderate NE/ENE
winds and somewhat elevated seas will continue Thurs-Fri. A coastal
low will develop off the middle Tx coast early in the weekend and
track ewd. We`ll again see winds increase (esp offshore), seas
build, and rain chances increase. Conditions start settling down
Sunday and we will eventually see and onshore flow resume early next
week. 47
Getting a decent snow event here today, we we're only expecting freezing drizzle and sleet with some flurries at the most. And we're getting moderate snow now at 15 degrees with a wind chill of -4! Talk about over performance.
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 3:01 pm
On the "We'll see" front next winter could be an El Niño one with an active SJT and less of a chance of arctic incursions. You know know, though.
I’m not too big on El Niño winters. They’ve been pretty blah lately. I prefer the weak Niña winters.
Absolutely. I don't want to throw a wet blanket on yet. Enjoy our 36 hours of cold!
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 3:01 pm
On the "We'll see" front next winter could be an El Niño one with an active SJT and less of a chance of arctic incursions. You know know, though.
I’m not too big on El Niño winters. They’ve been pretty blah lately. I prefer the weak Niña winters.
Depends on what kind of El Nino. A weak to moderate El Nino favors colder winters. A strong (not super strong) El Nino as well. A Modoki El Nino is also more favorable for cold winters. El Nino is not only a factor for cold winters.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 3:01 pm
On the "We'll see" front next winter could be an El Niño one with an active SJT and less of a chance of arctic incursions. You know know, though.
I’m not too big on El Niño winters. They’ve been pretty blah lately. I prefer the weak Niña winters.
Depends on what kind of El Nino. A weak to moderate El Nino favors colder winters. A strong (not super strong) El Nino as well. A Modoki El Nino is also more favorable for cold winters. El Nino is not only a factor for cold winters.
Name an El Niño winter here in the past ten years that’s actually been cold. They’ve been atrocious lately. All of our cold snaps lately have come from La Niña winters. Specifically first year weaker Niña’s.
Made it down to 30°F with a wind chill of 16°F. Slightly cooler than what was forecasted. I doubt we make it to the forecasted high of 38°F today. There’s still a lot of CAA coming in and it’s overcast as well.
It’s already freezing here and it wasn’t supposed to hit freezing until tonight.
It’s pretty miserable outside right now. Cloudy, windy and cold, the trifecta of hell.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Our long-advertised frontal passage has now happened, and we have
the expected gusty north winds ushering in much colder air into
Southeast Texas. Gone are previous spring-like conditions, and
back is a reminder of winter. There is A LOT going on, so here`s a
quick roundup of the big points!
- Make sure all the outdoor stuff is securely in place or indoors! A
wind advisory is in place today for all but the sheltered Piney
Woods northeast of Lake Livingston due to the gusty north
winds, capable of gusting up to around 40 mph. On the waters, a
gale warning continues as well.
- Be thinking of keeping people, pets, pipes, and plants warm for
at least the next couple of nights! (and probably longer) Temps
are plummeting on these post- frontal winds as well, and a cold
weather advisory is in place on the northern and western fringes
of the area through 10 am this morning, until wind chills begin
to climb back up to - not really warm - but at least less
unusually cold levels.
- Tonight looks even colder than early this morning! A hard freeze
is expected north and west of the Houston metro, with a light
freeze for all but those right on the Gulf coast. Wind chills
will plunge even lower as winds remain fairly gusty. Because of
this, an extreme cold warning is in place in the same northern
and western fringes, while the rest of Southeast Texas has a
cold weather advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Dewpoints at Galveston have fallen below 50 degrees at 3 am,
indicating that all of Southeast Texas now finds itself behind our
high profile cold front, and will be declining back into a
reminder of winter. Fortunately, conditions look too dry for any
sort of wintry precipitation, but we will definitely have
unseasonably cold temperatures for the entirety of the short term
forecast period.
We have got ourselves a whopper of a high pressure center dropping
into the Great Plains. A 1050 high in North Dakota will continue
to settle southward. Meanwhile, a weak 1012 Gulf low also exists
off to our east. And while 1012 isn`t a real impressive mark on
its own (just a scoch below standard MSLP!) it`s enough against
that 1050 high to give us some real gusty north winds early this
morning. Galveston has gusted up to around 50 mph last night with
an assist from low-friction Galveston Bay upwind, and widespread
gusts across Southeast Texas are up around 30 mph despite not
having a sheet of water upwind.
The northern swath of the area has reached or fallen below
freezing already tonight, though my expectations are that the
Houston metro and all but a couple isolated cold spots south of
I-10 should stay above the freezing mark. Still, that`s a pretty
decent chunk of our area falling below 32 in the immediate wake of
the front. Things don`t look much warmer today, as the continued
strong cold advection on these gusty north winds look to keep
those northern spots around or below 40 degrees, and even spots
right on the Gulf will struggle mightily to hit 50 degrees.
The cold day sets us up for even colder marks tonight. The inland
half or so of the area looks to see a hard freeze, with lows
falling into the lower half of the 20s. This may well include even
the northern and northwestern exurbs/suburbs for Houston. While
winds will likely be diminishing, we`re still looking at a 1040
high over Missouri, so I`m still expecting some gustiness to drive
down wind chills even more than we`re seeing early this morning.
The combination of cold temps and winds look to push wind chills
down into single digits in the northern row or two of counties,
and into the lower/middle teens in the coastal plain. Even at the
coast, the forecast temps and winds would combine for wind chills
around/below 20 degrees!
That big high will continue to drift across the Mississippi Valley
and into the Ohio Valley through the day Thursday and into
Thursday night, and winds should gradually veer a little more
northeasterly and diminish some more. This doesn`t exactly make
me think we`re going to get a lot of warmup Thursday, but we
shouldn`t see the day`s temps any lower than today. Similarly,
Thursday night looks quite cold, but with the cold advection tap
shut off and lighter winds occurring, my lows and wind chills are
similar to or slightly higher than expected tonight. I`d still
expect a very broad cold weather advisory, but we may be able to
escape a second night of extreme cold warnings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Overcast skies with a cold airmass still over the area will keep
cooler weather in place early on Friday with highs in the upper 30s/
40s. Conditions get a tad warning heading into the weekend as our
next bout of active weather begins. This comes in the form of a
mid/upper level trough, which will be passing through the Four
Corners/Central Plains on Friday. As it draws closers to SE Texas, a
coastal trough/Gulf low will set up over the Western Gulf coast. The
influx of moisture from this feature with forcing aloft from the
trough should bring increasing rain chances, resulting in cold and
dreary conditions on Saturday. PWs remain tame, generally around 1.0-
1.3" and with a shallower warm cloud layer and lacking instability,
the threat of heavy rainfall with this system still remains low for
the time being. The upper trough and associated surface features
should push off to the east overnight, with rain chances tapering
down Sunday Morning.
Thinning sky cover should bring a brief warm-up on Sunday, even
moreso on Monday as surface high pressure is pushed into
north/northeast Gulf, thus establishing onshore flow an WAA. By
Tuesday, highs should reach the mid/upper 70s inland and upper 60s
along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
MVFR and IFR (plus a small smattering of LIFR) CIGs across the
area with gusty north winds in wake of cold front. Winds continue
through the day, with cloud bases bottoming out in the next few
hours before beginning to slowly rise through early afternoon.
Main uncertainty is in how much clouds scatter out between mid-
afternoon and early evening. Am going somewhat optimistic in going
to SCT020-025 in the afternoon. But...expecting this will be very
close to BKN, and could hold as a CIG into the evening before
scattering out enough to become VFR. Tonight, winds slowly lose
their gusty character and diminish modestly while veering a bit
more towards the northeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at xxx AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
Strong offshore winds with frequent gusts over Gale force have begun
this morning behind the cold front, with seas expected to rise to 6
to 11 feet. Therefore, Gale warnings are in effect through 3 PM this
afternoon. Mariners should also watch for lower water levels across
the bays, especially at low tide and in the upper reaches near
Morgan`s point. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed this
afternoon through Thursday afternoon as winds slowly decrease and
shift northeasterly. Caution flag and additional advisories may be
needed through the weekend, especially on Friday and early Saturday
as a coastal trough forms offshore. This feature should bring
another round of showers across the Gulf waters through Sunday.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 7:45 am
It’s already freezing here and it wasn’t supposed to hit freezing until tonight.
It’s pretty miserable outside right now. Cloudy, windy and cold, the trifecta of hell.
23°F IMFY, 24°F at the airport. And it's not going to exceed 30°F today. Cold, dense air overperforms again.
Wind chill of 7°F. with N20 G31 Here's your single digit wind chill, stratton! (aren't you near Katy now?)
OK cold weather lovers. Time to man up! No sitting inside in front of the keyboard telling us how beautiful it is outside. Nope! You need to be outside, all day long. Revel in it. Soak it in. Enjoy the tinge of the wind, then and only then come back and tell us how great it is
