February 2025

[tireman4]

Yep...

[Brazoriatx979]

I don't know. I'm still not sold on anything "bitter cold" here. Maybe some 20s and 30s but that's it. This one just doesn't give me the vibes the last one did

[Stratton20]

whay we saw in january was borderline upper 20’s to low 30’s for lows, their is a very good bet this airmass is going to be colder than that

[Cpv17]

whay we saw in january was borderline upper 20’s to low 30’s for lows, their is a very good bet this airmass is going to be colder than that

I got down to 18°F in January.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i only got down to 23-24 ish and im further north than you, thats weird lol, still though this airmass looks to be on the level of that

[DoctorMu]

whay we saw in january was borderline upper 20’s to low 30’s for lows, their is a very good bet this airmass is going to be colder than that

I got down to 18°F in January.

13-14°F in College Station

[jasons2k]

whay we saw in january was borderline upper 20’s to low 30’s for lows, their is a very good bet this airmass is going to be colder than that

I got down to 18°F in January.

13-14°F in College Station

I got down to 18 as well in January. I really didn’t think it was a threat again this winter but that sw trough wants to pull down just enough. The angle is different than modeled a few days ago. Gonna be close. I really don’t want to see below 20 again.

[vci_guy2003]

I was wondering this: if we had not gotten the snow last time, what would the low temps have been?

[tireman4]

Comparisons of Models ..Precipitation

[sambucol]

whay we saw in january was borderline upper 20’s to low 30’s for lows, their is a very good bet this airmass is going to be colder than that

Agree.

[don]

Cpv17 i only got down to 23-24 ish and im further north than you, thats weird lol, still though this airmass looks to be on the level of that

There is more of an urban heat island effect where you are located.Than the SW countryside. Of course the worst of the heat island is in the loop where it seemed when I lived there that it was much harder to get to freezing in the loop than areas especially outside the beltway.

[tireman4]

Ben Noll

[Cpv17]

Ben Noll

I need to make a trip to Oregon. That sounds incredible!

[tireman4]

637
FXUS64 KHGX 142014
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
214 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Scattered showers have begun to pop up around Southeast TX as a
coastal trough continues to surge moisture inland. PW values have
already begun to reach 1.2-1.3", which is right around the 90th
percentile. As a result, some of the downpours have been locally
moderate to heavy. Due to low-level cloud cover remaining in place
along with rain showers scattered about, we`ll only see our high
temperatures top out mainly in the low 50s. A warm front moves
inland from the Gulf towards the evening hours which will advect in
higher dew points, so expect the scattered rainfall to continue with
an added bonus of patchy fog as well! All that being said, those
with dinner plans tonight should plan on chilly temperatures (in the
50s) and a slight chance of rain showers (~20-30%). With the warm
front pushing in later this evening, we`ll actually see temperatures
increase during the overnight hours...so the low temperature may
occur fairly close to midnight. The low temperature forecast is a
bit deceiving as a result...it shows low temperatures in the upper
40s to upper 50s but when you walk out the door in the morning it`ll
be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

That increased humidity sets the stage for Saturday as we become
firmly placed in the warm sector of an approaching surface low. Dew
points will surge into mid to upper 60s for most of the area by
Saturday morning along with a strengthening LLJ. By the afternoon,
we`ll have a 45-55 kt LLJ overhead paired with relatively weak
instability creates a high shear/low CAPE environment. PW values
surge up to 1.5-1.7" along the first frontal boundary in the
afternoon, but even then the 12Z CAMs aren`t that ecstatic about us
seeing much more than a line of showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms. While there does remain a marginal (level 1 out of 5)
to slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather for areas east
of the Brazos River, this appears to be rather conditional. If a
storm were to beat all the odds and manage to sustain itself, then
it could have the potential to produce damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. However, most locations will likely see just rain
as their main impacts, especially areas outside of the Piney Woods
region. Pre-frontal heating ahead of the front will lead to high
temperatures in the low to upper 70s for most of the area. In the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, we`ll see temperatures in the upper 60s
to low 70s with an earlier FROPA.

The second cold front with the bigger push of colder and drier air
comes in towards the late evening/midnight hour. PW values will drop
to near or below the 10th percentile (~0.34") by late Saturday
night, so expect to see low temperatures fall into the 30s/40s with
some low 30s for portions of the Piney Woods. An even stronger cold
front looks to arrive early next week to remind us that it`s still
winter...more on that in the long term discussion below.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

After Sunday`s cool down behind Saturday`s cold front, Monday`s
morning temperatures begin on the cool side...low to mid 30s inland,
and low 40s along the coast...before rebounding into the low-mid 60s
in the afternoon as a ridge of high pressure at the surface pushes
off to the eastern US and onshore flow from the Gulf returns to the
region. Tuesday`s temperatures will be even warmer, ranging from
the mid 60s across our northern zones to the low 70s across the
coastal region.

The increase in temperatures will be short-lived, however, as a
vigorous arctic low pressure system digs its way south over the
Great Lakes states and brings a strong arctic cold front through our
area early Wednesday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
accompany this frontal passage. There will be a brief period
Wednesday morning where a wintry mix of precipitation will be
possible across our far northwestern counties as temperatures
quickly drop to around the freezing mark in phase with the
accompanying precipitation activity, and this possibility is
something that we will continue to monitor closely over the next
couple of days as this forecast continues to evolve.

Frigid temperatures will rush in behind this front on Wednesday,
riding strong, gusty northerly winds that will last through the day
and overnight into Thursday morning. This arctic air combined with
the continued gusty northerly winds will drop temperatures down to
the mid-upper 20s across the coast and the mid-upper teens across
our northern zones. Factoring in the winds will bring wind chill
values down to the teens from the Houston Metro southward, and to
the single digits across our northern counties. If this verifies,
Extreme Cold Warnings/Hard Freeze Warnings may be needed for
Thursday morning.

McNeel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Scattered showers are drifting SW to NE across the region this
afternoon and should dissipate by this evening. Ceilings are
expected to remain in the MVFR range through the remainder of the
day today before lowering to IFR this evening and overnight into
Saturday morning. Winds are expected to shift to the east and
southeast tonight and overnight, and increase in speed overnight
into Saturday morning in advance of a cold front that will push
across the area late Saturday. Additional scattered showers will
develop overnight along the coast and drift inland through the
morning, becoming more widespread. We are expecting to see a line
of showers and thunderstorms gradually develop through the late
morning into the afternoon and eventually push though the area.
The best chances for thunderstorm activity will be across our
northern counties and the northern Houston Metro.

McNeel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Elevated winds and seas will prevail into at least late Sunday with
winds transitioning from easterly this afternoon to southeasterly
tonight and northerly on Saturday night. This is due to onshore flow
strengthening ahead of the next weather system and a subsequent
frontal passage on Saturday evening/night. A warm front pushes
onshore later this evening leading to the potential for sea fog to
create reduced visibilities (2-6 NM), but winds remain elevated
enough to prevent the fog from becoming dense. Mariners can expect
advisory conditions in the Gulf waters throughout the weekend with
moderate onshore flow ahead of the front moderate to strong
northerly winds prevailing in the wake of the front. Onshore flow
briefly returns on late Monday into Tuesday, only to be replaced
with strong offshore flow Tuesday night as another cold front pushes
through. Wind gusts to gale force and low water levels during
periods of low tide will be possible midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 68 36 52 / 30 40 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 78 42 56 / 20 70 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 60 74 45 58 / 10 30 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 6 PM CST this evening
through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 6 PM this evening to
midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday
for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....McNeel
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Batiste

[tireman4]

"Potential" Wintery Precipitation Outlook

The increase in temperatures will be short-lived, however, as a
vigorous arctic low pressure system digs its way south over the
Great Lakes states and brings a strong arctic cold front through our
area early Wednesday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will
accompany this frontal passage. There will be a brief period
Wednesday morning where a wintry mix of precipitation will be
possible across our far northwestern counties as temperatures
quickly drop to around the freezing mark in phase with the
accompanying precipitation activity, and this possibility is
something that we will continue to monitor closely over the next
couple of days as this forecast continues to evolve.

Frigid temperatures will rush in behind this front on Wednesday,
riding strong, gusty northerly winds that will last through the day
and overnight into Thursday morning. This arctic air combined with
the continued gusty northerly winds will drop temperatures down to
the mid-upper 20s across the coast and the mid-upper teens across
our northern zones. Factoring in the winds will bring wind chill
values down to the teens from the Houston Metro southward, and to
the single digits across our northern counties. If this verifies,
Extreme Cold Warnings/Hard Freeze Warnings may be needed for
Thursday morning.

[tireman4]

Well, from this desk, it is looking more and more likely we will see a hard freeze in the CWA. How low the temperatures will get remains to be seen. Make sure to cover pets, pipes, plants and people, as it were.

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 i only got down to 23-24 ish and im further north than you, thats weird lol, still though this airmass looks to be on the level of that

There is more of an urban heat island effect where you are located.Than the SW countryside. Of course the worst of the heat island is in the loop where it seemed when I lived there that it was much harder to get to freezing in the loop than areas especially outside the beltway.

Even on College Station, away from all the Texas A&M concrete near the airport, lows in the winter are 2-4°F cooler.

NOAA now has 17°F for Wed. night. That could mean 14-15°F IMFY.

Rainfall varies but more randomly. The airport has had 1.7 inches of rain. I think we had 3.30 inches (I need to go home and recheck). EDIT: 3.10 inches of rain this week.

[DoctorMu]

Well, from this desk, it is looking more and more likely we will see a hard freeze in the CWA. How low the temperatures will get remains to be seen. Make sure to cover pets, pipes, plants and people, as it were.

Looks about right with the consensus.

[biggerbyte]

Yup. Of course we are five days out, and we know how it is. However, based on the current situation there really isn't anything to stop it. I see a very hard freeze in the area. The bigger question is precipitation. There are currently a couple of camps. One suggest this big high pressure will dry everything out. The other says not so fast and mentions sleet.

[tireman4]

Euro