It snowed???Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2025 12:26 pm Yes i am haha, our part of the state definitely doesnt need much rain right now, our yard is still muddy from the melted snow, wouldnt mind a few more drier days before rain returns
January 2025
Weird day with the front coming through this morning and now retreating. Some pockets of really heavy thunderstorm rain rates. Picked up 2.5" so far.
The snowstorm that gave Texas and the South snow contribute to the development of Storm Éowyn.
Storm Éowyn Had Help From Winter Storm Enzo
https://weather.com/storms/winter/video ... nter-storm
Bomb cyclone Eowyn blasts Ireland with record 114 mph gust as 1 million lose power across British Isles
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news ... t-european
Storm Éowyn Had Help From Winter Storm Enzo
https://weather.com/storms/winter/video ... nter-storm
Bomb cyclone Eowyn blasts Ireland with record 114 mph gust as 1 million lose power across British Isles
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news ... t-european
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
566
FXUS64 KHGX 271112
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
The boundary of our slow-moving cold front that began pushing into
Southeast TX on Sunday morning has juuust made it to the coastline
around just after midnight on Monday morning. The front will push a
little further offshore before coming to a halt...this means that
all of that low-level moisture will continue to linger. Stepping out
the door later this morning, you`re gonna feel the humidity in all
its glory and you also might see it as well with patchy fog around
through the mid-morning hours. Light rain showers will be on a
downward trend and mainly around the coast by commute time, and rain
chances are essentially gone by the evening commute as surface high
pressure builds in behind the cold front. With overcast clouds and
weak CAA prevailing throughout the day, we`ll only see high
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds become light and
variable overnight, which presents the potential for another round
of patchy fog into Tuesday morning. Expect low temperatures tonight
to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.
PW values remain above the 75th percentile throughout the day on
Tuesday as an upper level low drifts towards the Four Corners
region. This will begin to establish southwesterly aloft, and also
generate surface low pressure around west TX. The pressure gradient
between this surface low and surface high pressure over the mid to
eastern Gulf coast will tighten leading to a strengthening LLJ over
central TX. Part of this scoots into our area on Tuesday afternoon,
and when combined with increasing PVA from the southwesterly flow
aloft should be enough to generate at least some light rain showers.
Most high-res model guidance shows scattered coverage of rain
showers throughout the day, but not much indication of any heavy
downpours. Diving into some model soundings reveals saturation only
up to around 750mb, so yeah...not too supportive of much more than
light rain showers. There will be some subtle ridging aloft, so
there will be at least some subsidence in place to limit the
coverage of the showers. However at the same time, you could make an
argument that there`s upper level divergence aloft due to some jet
streak shenanigans. All that to say, I feel better having slight
rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday rather than not having it.
High temperatures for Tuesday will fall mainly into the 60s as we
add on about 2-5F to today`s temperatures. Another night of light
winds on Tuesday night plus even more low-level moisture as onshore
flow returns will lead to yet another night of patchy fog. Low
temperatures will only fall into 50s. Can you believe that just
under a week ago we were blanketed with snow...and now we`re
perpetually blanketed with overcast clouds and patchy fog! Where`s
my time machine...
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
An active pattern continues to stick around into the extended
portions of the forecast period as strong closed low slides into the
Plains, ejecting vorticity maxes aloft and developing a
low/associated cold front at the surface.
Weak ridge axis continues to shift eastward on Wednesday. However,
precipitation chances are non-zero. The reasons are: deep Gulf
moisture surging inland with the help of a strengthening LLJ. In
addition, surface convergence along a warm front will set up across
TX. At the moment, it does not look like a complete washout, but the
best probabilities of rain/storms look to be across our northern
counties, which is where better dynamics reside thanks to multiple
vort maxes embedded in the SW flow aloft.
Showers and storms become likely Wednesday night into
at least Friday morning as the closed low enters the Plains and a
surface low moves from the Big Bend region to central/northeastern
TX. This surface low will finally drag a cold front sometime on
Thursday. Confidence in a wet pattern/period for the second half of
the week is high; however uncertainty still remain on timing, rain
totals and axis of the heaviest precipitation. Latest LREF
clustering and Grand Ensemble show better agreement on QPF, however,
there is still some discrepancies in timing/phase of the low,
potentially impacting rain totals across our area. As of now, better
dynamic/forcing will be north of I-10 with an approaching jet max,
on the nose of a 40 to 50 kts LLJ and abundant moisture with PWs
into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. With a very saturated boundary layer
and a thick cloud layer, drizzle and periods of showers with
scattered storms will be possible. This scenario will be favorable
for locally heavy rainfall with potential for training storms
(higher chances across our northern counties), which looks
reasonable based on WPC`s Day 4 outlook. Will continue to monitor
the evolution of this closed low early this week as hi-res models
and guidance provide specific details on any localized heavy rain
and higher/lower rain amounts across SE TX.
The front exits the region by Friday, resulting in a brief period of
cooler conditions. As we head into the weekend, building ridge aloft
will keep the region drier and warmer.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are in abundance this morning as
we have a mixture of patchy fog, lingering rain showers, and low
cloud ceilings around the region. The lingering rain showers will
gradually drift southward towards the coast and eventually
dissipate later this morning. However, the low cloud ceilings will
prevail throughout the day as IFR/LIFR ceilings persist into the
afternoon hours. After 21Z, the window opens for a brief return to
MVFR ceilings for most sites. Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings to return
by 06Z as low cloud ceilings and patchy fog return. Winds will be
northerly around 10 kt throughout the day, then become light and
variable overnight.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Early this morning, an almost stationary front remains over the
coastal waters. This boundary, enough moisture and light winds are
resulting in areas of fog, some locally dense, across the bays and
nearshore waters. Visibility should improve after sunrise as the
boundary shifts further east. Any lingering showers should also
taper off early this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will keep north to northeast winds
today, and seas 2 to 4 ft. Onshore winds resume by Tuesday and will
persist until the next frontal passage that will enter the waters on
Thursday-Friday time frame. Elevated winds and building seas are
expected ahead of the frontal system; therefore, advisories will
likely be issued. Periods of showers, some locally heavy, and storms
are also expected Wednesday into Friday.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 49 60 54 / 10 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 60 52 63 55 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 58 52 58 54 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 271112
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
The boundary of our slow-moving cold front that began pushing into
Southeast TX on Sunday morning has juuust made it to the coastline
around just after midnight on Monday morning. The front will push a
little further offshore before coming to a halt...this means that
all of that low-level moisture will continue to linger. Stepping out
the door later this morning, you`re gonna feel the humidity in all
its glory and you also might see it as well with patchy fog around
through the mid-morning hours. Light rain showers will be on a
downward trend and mainly around the coast by commute time, and rain
chances are essentially gone by the evening commute as surface high
pressure builds in behind the cold front. With overcast clouds and
weak CAA prevailing throughout the day, we`ll only see high
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds become light and
variable overnight, which presents the potential for another round
of patchy fog into Tuesday morning. Expect low temperatures tonight
to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.
PW values remain above the 75th percentile throughout the day on
Tuesday as an upper level low drifts towards the Four Corners
region. This will begin to establish southwesterly aloft, and also
generate surface low pressure around west TX. The pressure gradient
between this surface low and surface high pressure over the mid to
eastern Gulf coast will tighten leading to a strengthening LLJ over
central TX. Part of this scoots into our area on Tuesday afternoon,
and when combined with increasing PVA from the southwesterly flow
aloft should be enough to generate at least some light rain showers.
Most high-res model guidance shows scattered coverage of rain
showers throughout the day, but not much indication of any heavy
downpours. Diving into some model soundings reveals saturation only
up to around 750mb, so yeah...not too supportive of much more than
light rain showers. There will be some subtle ridging aloft, so
there will be at least some subsidence in place to limit the
coverage of the showers. However at the same time, you could make an
argument that there`s upper level divergence aloft due to some jet
streak shenanigans. All that to say, I feel better having slight
rain chances in the forecast for Tuesday rather than not having it.
High temperatures for Tuesday will fall mainly into the 60s as we
add on about 2-5F to today`s temperatures. Another night of light
winds on Tuesday night plus even more low-level moisture as onshore
flow returns will lead to yet another night of patchy fog. Low
temperatures will only fall into 50s. Can you believe that just
under a week ago we were blanketed with snow...and now we`re
perpetually blanketed with overcast clouds and patchy fog! Where`s
my time machine...
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
An active pattern continues to stick around into the extended
portions of the forecast period as strong closed low slides into the
Plains, ejecting vorticity maxes aloft and developing a
low/associated cold front at the surface.
Weak ridge axis continues to shift eastward on Wednesday. However,
precipitation chances are non-zero. The reasons are: deep Gulf
moisture surging inland with the help of a strengthening LLJ. In
addition, surface convergence along a warm front will set up across
TX. At the moment, it does not look like a complete washout, but the
best probabilities of rain/storms look to be across our northern
counties, which is where better dynamics reside thanks to multiple
vort maxes embedded in the SW flow aloft.
Showers and storms become likely Wednesday night into
at least Friday morning as the closed low enters the Plains and a
surface low moves from the Big Bend region to central/northeastern
TX. This surface low will finally drag a cold front sometime on
Thursday. Confidence in a wet pattern/period for the second half of
the week is high; however uncertainty still remain on timing, rain
totals and axis of the heaviest precipitation. Latest LREF
clustering and Grand Ensemble show better agreement on QPF, however,
there is still some discrepancies in timing/phase of the low,
potentially impacting rain totals across our area. As of now, better
dynamic/forcing will be north of I-10 with an approaching jet max,
on the nose of a 40 to 50 kts LLJ and abundant moisture with PWs
into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. With a very saturated boundary layer
and a thick cloud layer, drizzle and periods of showers with
scattered storms will be possible. This scenario will be favorable
for locally heavy rainfall with potential for training storms
(higher chances across our northern counties), which looks
reasonable based on WPC`s Day 4 outlook. Will continue to monitor
the evolution of this closed low early this week as hi-res models
and guidance provide specific details on any localized heavy rain
and higher/lower rain amounts across SE TX.
The front exits the region by Friday, resulting in a brief period of
cooler conditions. As we head into the weekend, building ridge aloft
will keep the region drier and warmer.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are in abundance this morning as
we have a mixture of patchy fog, lingering rain showers, and low
cloud ceilings around the region. The lingering rain showers will
gradually drift southward towards the coast and eventually
dissipate later this morning. However, the low cloud ceilings will
prevail throughout the day as IFR/LIFR ceilings persist into the
afternoon hours. After 21Z, the window opens for a brief return to
MVFR ceilings for most sites. Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings to return
by 06Z as low cloud ceilings and patchy fog return. Winds will be
northerly around 10 kt throughout the day, then become light and
variable overnight.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Early this morning, an almost stationary front remains over the
coastal waters. This boundary, enough moisture and light winds are
resulting in areas of fog, some locally dense, across the bays and
nearshore waters. Visibility should improve after sunrise as the
boundary shifts further east. Any lingering showers should also
taper off early this morning.
Surface high pressure to our east will keep north to northeast winds
today, and seas 2 to 4 ft. Onshore winds resume by Tuesday and will
persist until the next frontal passage that will enter the waters on
Thursday-Friday time frame. Elevated winds and building seas are
expected ahead of the frontal system; therefore, advisories will
likely be issued. Periods of showers, some locally heavy, and storms
are also expected Wednesday into Friday.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 49 60 54 / 10 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 60 52 63 55 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 58 52 58 54 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Persistent IFR to low-end MVFR cigs and visibilities are expected
to prevail through the duration of the TAF period. Latest
observations show some cloud bases just above 1000ft, a trend that
could continue through the afternoon. Deterioration is expected
overnight with widespread IFR cigs and fog developing area-wide.
Patchy dense fog is possible through sunrise, and IFR cigs could
prevail well into the morning. For now, no rain is expected for
the current period but we could begin to see shower activity
picking up as early as late tomorrow afternoon.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Persistent IFR to low-end MVFR cigs and visibilities are expected
to prevail through the duration of the TAF period. Latest
observations show some cloud bases just above 1000ft, a trend that
could continue through the afternoon. Deterioration is expected
overnight with widespread IFR cigs and fog developing area-wide.
Patchy dense fog is possible through sunrise, and IFR cigs could
prevail well into the morning. For now, no rain is expected for
the current period but we could begin to see shower activity
picking up as early as late tomorrow afternoon.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
580
FXUS64 KHGX 280957
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Locally, a moist flow situated over the top of surface high pressure
stretching from Texas across the northern Gulf coast should keep
cloudy skies in place today. With the lack of sun, am not
anticipating much of a warm-up...with upper 50s to low 60s mostly
prevailing. With nearly saturated layer below about 700mb and some
passing impulses in the flow aloft we`ll probably see some isolated
to scattered pockets of -ra at times, moreso across western and
northern parts of the CWA. Same general setup tonight.
On Wednesday, llvl flow becomes more southerly as high pressure
erodes and moves further east. Temperatures will make their way up
to around 70F. Low level jet increases throughout the day and will
transport deeper Gulf moisture back into the region with PW`s making
their way up to ~1.5". There`s no one specific focusing mechanism
per se, but the northern part of the CWA should be positioned in or
near the train of weak impulses embedded in the swly flow. Would
anticipate fairly decent chances of showers there. Further south, it
too should be cloudy with a mix of drizzle/mist & pockets of -ra
with nearly saturated llvls (would`ve been fog/sea fog if the winds
were lower).
Wednesday night, the upper level trof to our west and associated
frontal boundary inches closer to the region. A band of showers &
elevated thunderstorms should begin developing overnight to our
northwest and make their way toward SE Tx Thursday morning. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Even though the long term period extends through early next week,
the vast majority of this AFD will be centered around
Thursday...y`all were warned ahead of time this time! Let`s start
off with the synoptic setup first then we`ll work our way down to
the surface, so kind of like the top-down method but without the
winter weather implications. On early Thursday morning, an upper
level low near the Four Corners region will be drifting eastward
along the OK/KS state border. At the mid-levels, southwesterly flow
will be established with a vort max moving east-southeastward
through the Southern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure
will be located along the Red River with an associated cold front.
This means that Southeast TX will be located in the warm sector of
this surface low, so moisture advection/WAA will be fairly high
especially with the pressure gradient tightening (LLJ) between the
low pressure and high pressure near the southeastern CONUS. As a
result, we`ll see PW values likely at their MAX percentiles ranging
from 1.5-1.8" and alongside a strengthening LLJ.
By sunrise on Thursday morning, a line of showers/storms will be
approaching the Brazos Valley along the boundary of the cold front.
We could definitely see some hefty rainfall rates in any of the
stronger storms, but fortunately this synoptic pattern isn`t that
favorable for convective training so the isolated flood threat is
mainly driven by the potential for high rainfall rates (~2"/hr). The
lack of any instability greater than 500 J/kg also limits the flood
threat. As a result, rainfall totals on Thursday look to be
generally around 1" since this line will be fairly progressive.
Looks like most locations outside of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
will see less than an inch. However, some totals around 2" are
definitely within the realm of possibilities across portions of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods...this is where the LLJ and that low-
ish amount of instability overlap. WPC has actually trimmed back on
the ERO for our area. As of this morning`s update, areas east of a
Burleson-Houston-Anahuac line are in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4)
for excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Now let`s move onto the severe weather potential! Let`s go ahead and
say that shear is absolutely not a limiting factor. The
strengthening LLJ will eventually result in bulk shear around 70-80
kt as the line of showers/storms pushes in. We`ll also have veering
winds with height, so both directional and speed shear are checked
off the checklist. The limiting factor will be instability as even
MUCAPE can hardly crack 750 J/kg. The main threat besides heavy
rainfall will be strong wind gusts mixing down to the surface, but
based on both the low-level and deep-layer shear...isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially along the leading edge of
the line and if any discrete cells develop out ahead of the front.
Small hail will be a possibility as well. As a result, SPC has
placed most of Southeast TX in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather. There is also a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
corridor containing areas eastward of a line from the Houston
metro area to Huntsville.
The main window for both the heavy rain/severe weather potential
will be Thursday afternoon, and as mentioned earlier this line of
storms will be fairly progressive...so it`ll be offshore by the
early evening hours. Drier air and surface high pressure build in
behind the front leading to an outstanding weekend up ahead. Now
let`s talk temperatures! On Thursday, expect high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s with a brief fall off post-FROPA as high
temperatures remain in the 60s Friday/Saturday. We`ll cool off into
the upper 40s/low 50s on Thursday night, then we see our coldest
night on Friday night as drop into the low to mid 40s. Saturday
night will be similar, but things begin to change on Sunday.
Surface high pressure slides off to the east on Sunday allowing for
WAA/onshore flow to return. This takes us on a warming/moistening
trend going into early next week resulting in high temperatures in
the 70s to kick off the first full week of February. A cold front
looks to be on approach towards the end of the long term period,
which will likely at least result in increasing rain chances towards
midweek. To say that uncertainty is high with this front would be an
understatement...and that`s to be expected for something a week out.
I did get a kick out of the difference between the upper and lower
quartiles for both max/min temperatures (NBM) after Tuesday next
week being 10-15+ degrees.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
A mix of IFR & lower end MVFR conditions will prevail today with a
nearly saturated low level column. Same goes for tonight. Look for
some scattered -ra at times generally along a Matagorda Bay-CLL/UTS-
LFK corridor today and tonight. Possibility exists that areas south
of I-10 might see some LIFR ceilings late tonight & Wed morning but
increasing winds could be a limiting factor. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
During the astronomical low tide this afternoon, water levels are
expected to bottom out around -0.6 to -0.9 ft below MLLW.
Predominantly easterly flow will prevail for the next day or so then
gradually transition to southeasterly on Wednesday. There is some
potential for sea fog beginning tonight as water temperatures remain
in the low 50s and dew points approach the upper 50s. The sea fog
threat will continue until a cold front pushes offshore Thursday
night. Southeasterly flow strengthens Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon as the next weather system with an associated
cold front approach/push through. Caution flags and/or advisories
will likely be needed during this period as winds approach 20 kt and
seas build up to 5-8 ft. The frontal boundary will be offshore by
Thursday evening with northwesterly winds prevailing in its wake.
Winds and seas will be on a downward trend through Friday.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 54 70 63 / 20 40 50 60
Houston (IAH) 61 55 71 63 / 10 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 58 55 66 59 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 280957
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Locally, a moist flow situated over the top of surface high pressure
stretching from Texas across the northern Gulf coast should keep
cloudy skies in place today. With the lack of sun, am not
anticipating much of a warm-up...with upper 50s to low 60s mostly
prevailing. With nearly saturated layer below about 700mb and some
passing impulses in the flow aloft we`ll probably see some isolated
to scattered pockets of -ra at times, moreso across western and
northern parts of the CWA. Same general setup tonight.
On Wednesday, llvl flow becomes more southerly as high pressure
erodes and moves further east. Temperatures will make their way up
to around 70F. Low level jet increases throughout the day and will
transport deeper Gulf moisture back into the region with PW`s making
their way up to ~1.5". There`s no one specific focusing mechanism
per se, but the northern part of the CWA should be positioned in or
near the train of weak impulses embedded in the swly flow. Would
anticipate fairly decent chances of showers there. Further south, it
too should be cloudy with a mix of drizzle/mist & pockets of -ra
with nearly saturated llvls (would`ve been fog/sea fog if the winds
were lower).
Wednesday night, the upper level trof to our west and associated
frontal boundary inches closer to the region. A band of showers &
elevated thunderstorms should begin developing overnight to our
northwest and make their way toward SE Tx Thursday morning. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Even though the long term period extends through early next week,
the vast majority of this AFD will be centered around
Thursday...y`all were warned ahead of time this time! Let`s start
off with the synoptic setup first then we`ll work our way down to
the surface, so kind of like the top-down method but without the
winter weather implications. On early Thursday morning, an upper
level low near the Four Corners region will be drifting eastward
along the OK/KS state border. At the mid-levels, southwesterly flow
will be established with a vort max moving east-southeastward
through the Southern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure
will be located along the Red River with an associated cold front.
This means that Southeast TX will be located in the warm sector of
this surface low, so moisture advection/WAA will be fairly high
especially with the pressure gradient tightening (LLJ) between the
low pressure and high pressure near the southeastern CONUS. As a
result, we`ll see PW values likely at their MAX percentiles ranging
from 1.5-1.8" and alongside a strengthening LLJ.
By sunrise on Thursday morning, a line of showers/storms will be
approaching the Brazos Valley along the boundary of the cold front.
We could definitely see some hefty rainfall rates in any of the
stronger storms, but fortunately this synoptic pattern isn`t that
favorable for convective training so the isolated flood threat is
mainly driven by the potential for high rainfall rates (~2"/hr). The
lack of any instability greater than 500 J/kg also limits the flood
threat. As a result, rainfall totals on Thursday look to be
generally around 1" since this line will be fairly progressive.
Looks like most locations outside of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
will see less than an inch. However, some totals around 2" are
definitely within the realm of possibilities across portions of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods...this is where the LLJ and that low-
ish amount of instability overlap. WPC has actually trimmed back on
the ERO for our area. As of this morning`s update, areas east of a
Burleson-Houston-Anahuac line are in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4)
for excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Now let`s move onto the severe weather potential! Let`s go ahead and
say that shear is absolutely not a limiting factor. The
strengthening LLJ will eventually result in bulk shear around 70-80
kt as the line of showers/storms pushes in. We`ll also have veering
winds with height, so both directional and speed shear are checked
off the checklist. The limiting factor will be instability as even
MUCAPE can hardly crack 750 J/kg. The main threat besides heavy
rainfall will be strong wind gusts mixing down to the surface, but
based on both the low-level and deep-layer shear...isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially along the leading edge of
the line and if any discrete cells develop out ahead of the front.
Small hail will be a possibility as well. As a result, SPC has
placed most of Southeast TX in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather. There is also a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
corridor containing areas eastward of a line from the Houston
metro area to Huntsville.
The main window for both the heavy rain/severe weather potential
will be Thursday afternoon, and as mentioned earlier this line of
storms will be fairly progressive...so it`ll be offshore by the
early evening hours. Drier air and surface high pressure build in
behind the front leading to an outstanding weekend up ahead. Now
let`s talk temperatures! On Thursday, expect high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s with a brief fall off post-FROPA as high
temperatures remain in the 60s Friday/Saturday. We`ll cool off into
the upper 40s/low 50s on Thursday night, then we see our coldest
night on Friday night as drop into the low to mid 40s. Saturday
night will be similar, but things begin to change on Sunday.
Surface high pressure slides off to the east on Sunday allowing for
WAA/onshore flow to return. This takes us on a warming/moistening
trend going into early next week resulting in high temperatures in
the 70s to kick off the first full week of February. A cold front
looks to be on approach towards the end of the long term period,
which will likely at least result in increasing rain chances towards
midweek. To say that uncertainty is high with this front would be an
understatement...and that`s to be expected for something a week out.
I did get a kick out of the difference between the upper and lower
quartiles for both max/min temperatures (NBM) after Tuesday next
week being 10-15+ degrees.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
A mix of IFR & lower end MVFR conditions will prevail today with a
nearly saturated low level column. Same goes for tonight. Look for
some scattered -ra at times generally along a Matagorda Bay-CLL/UTS-
LFK corridor today and tonight. Possibility exists that areas south
of I-10 might see some LIFR ceilings late tonight & Wed morning but
increasing winds could be a limiting factor. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
During the astronomical low tide this afternoon, water levels are
expected to bottom out around -0.6 to -0.9 ft below MLLW.
Predominantly easterly flow will prevail for the next day or so then
gradually transition to southeasterly on Wednesday. There is some
potential for sea fog beginning tonight as water temperatures remain
in the low 50s and dew points approach the upper 50s. The sea fog
threat will continue until a cold front pushes offshore Thursday
night. Southeasterly flow strengthens Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon as the next weather system with an associated
cold front approach/push through. Caution flags and/or advisories
will likely be needed during this period as winds approach 20 kt and
seas build up to 5-8 ft. The frontal boundary will be offshore by
Thursday evening with northwesterly winds prevailing in its wake.
Winds and seas will be on a downward trend through Friday.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 54 70 63 / 20 40 50 60
Houston (IAH) 61 55 71 63 / 10 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 58 55 66 59 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
459
FXUS64 KHGX 282117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
317 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
The short term weather outlook for SE Texas can best be described
as "gloomy". Low-level moisture continues to remain abundant as a
steady onshore flow pattern prevails ahead of the approach of
Thursday`s cold front (see Long Term section for details). This
has promoted the development of a deck of low stratus that has
significantly inhibited daytime heating for the past 2 days. This
afternoon`s highs will struggle to eclipse 60 at many of our
observation sites, with most 3 PM readings showing values in the
upper 50s compared to last night`s lows in the lower 50s. This
pattern will likely prove favorable for the development of fog
overnight across much of the area as winds look to remain below 5
mph. Dense fog is possible at times, particularly closer to the
coast. A few light showers or perhaps some drizzle could be
possible overnight. Look for another night of lows in the low to
mid 50s.
Rain chances will begin to ramp up tomorrow as a robust upper low
continues to make its way towards the area. HiRes models continue
to show scattered coverage beginning just after sunrise tomorrow,
with QPF remaining low through Wednesday night given the lack of
instability/synoptic forcing in place. Otherwise, overcast skies
will prevail. Stronger onshore flow and thus increased WAA will
push afternoon highs into the upper 60s to near 70. Likewise,
overnight lows will increase into the low 60s with dense fog yet
again a possibility across the area.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Biggest question for the long term centers on Thursday with the next
cool front moving across the area ahead of large upper level low.
Deep moisture will stream across southeast TX ahead of this system
with PWs over 1.5" which is a bit high for this time of year.
Guidance continues to bring categorical PoPs across the area ahead
of the front through the day Thursday- so a wet day looks to be on
tap. Question centers on how much instability can develop given the
deep moisture, weak lapse rates and low level cloudiness/limited
heating ahead of the front. Strong ascent and deep layer shear will
favor some multicell organization Thursday afternoon, however MLCAPE
likely at or below 1000 (or even 500) j/kg looks to hinder intensity
of the deep moist convection. Still expect some thunderstorms,
although limited overall severe threat. A few stronger storms with
isolated damaging winds across the northern and eastern counties
remain a possibility, although this far out things still look fairly
marginal. Same holds with heavy rainfall potential. Guidance has
backed off a bit on overall rain totals, although the setup could
still support some 1-2" totals across the Piney Woods, with more .5-
1" totals elsewhere. The front pushes off the coast by evening,
finally taking the low level clouds and rain with it.
Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning will be 5-10
degrees cooler with 40sf for the whole area including the immediate
coast. However, Friday looks pretty nice with a return of sunny
skies and high temps generally from 65-70f. A warming trend is
expect through the weekend with nice overall conditions under mostly
clear skies. Highs Sunday and Monday look to be well into the 70s f
areawide. We could see some locations even touch 80f on Monday.
Evans
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
IFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period, with
some improvement to low-end MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.
Deterioration of both cigs and visibilities is expected overnight
tonight with another round of fog developing after sunset. Fog
could become dense at times, particularly in the hours just before
sunrise. Some light showers/drizzle also remains a possibility in
the overnight hours. Tomorrow, conditions improve marginally
after sunrise but should still be within IFR/low-end MVFR
thresholds. Look for winds out of the ESE, shifting further to the
SE as the day goes on tomorrow and increasing to around 10 knots.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Marine fog will continue to be a factor through early Thursday
ahead of the approach of a cold front. Areas of dense fog, with
visibilities reduced to a mile or less, are possible overnight and
into tomorrow morning with some fog likely to linger into the
afternoon. Another round of dense fog is expected on Wednesday
night before a front moves through the area on Thursday
afternoon. This frontal passage will be accompanied by showers,
with moderate onshore winds shifting to the north in its wake.
It`s possible that a Small Craft Advisory may be needed as winds
and seas increase ahead of the front. Light offshore winds prevail
into Saturday with onshore winds returning on Sunday.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 69 61 71 / 30 40 70 100
Houston (IAH) 56 70 63 74 / 20 30 30 90
Galveston (GLS) 54 62 58 66 / 10 20 10 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 282117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
317 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
The short term weather outlook for SE Texas can best be described
as "gloomy". Low-level moisture continues to remain abundant as a
steady onshore flow pattern prevails ahead of the approach of
Thursday`s cold front (see Long Term section for details). This
has promoted the development of a deck of low stratus that has
significantly inhibited daytime heating for the past 2 days. This
afternoon`s highs will struggle to eclipse 60 at many of our
observation sites, with most 3 PM readings showing values in the
upper 50s compared to last night`s lows in the lower 50s. This
pattern will likely prove favorable for the development of fog
overnight across much of the area as winds look to remain below 5
mph. Dense fog is possible at times, particularly closer to the
coast. A few light showers or perhaps some drizzle could be
possible overnight. Look for another night of lows in the low to
mid 50s.
Rain chances will begin to ramp up tomorrow as a robust upper low
continues to make its way towards the area. HiRes models continue
to show scattered coverage beginning just after sunrise tomorrow,
with QPF remaining low through Wednesday night given the lack of
instability/synoptic forcing in place. Otherwise, overcast skies
will prevail. Stronger onshore flow and thus increased WAA will
push afternoon highs into the upper 60s to near 70. Likewise,
overnight lows will increase into the low 60s with dense fog yet
again a possibility across the area.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Biggest question for the long term centers on Thursday with the next
cool front moving across the area ahead of large upper level low.
Deep moisture will stream across southeast TX ahead of this system
with PWs over 1.5" which is a bit high for this time of year.
Guidance continues to bring categorical PoPs across the area ahead
of the front through the day Thursday- so a wet day looks to be on
tap. Question centers on how much instability can develop given the
deep moisture, weak lapse rates and low level cloudiness/limited
heating ahead of the front. Strong ascent and deep layer shear will
favor some multicell organization Thursday afternoon, however MLCAPE
likely at or below 1000 (or even 500) j/kg looks to hinder intensity
of the deep moist convection. Still expect some thunderstorms,
although limited overall severe threat. A few stronger storms with
isolated damaging winds across the northern and eastern counties
remain a possibility, although this far out things still look fairly
marginal. Same holds with heavy rainfall potential. Guidance has
backed off a bit on overall rain totals, although the setup could
still support some 1-2" totals across the Piney Woods, with more .5-
1" totals elsewhere. The front pushes off the coast by evening,
finally taking the low level clouds and rain with it.
Overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning will be 5-10
degrees cooler with 40sf for the whole area including the immediate
coast. However, Friday looks pretty nice with a return of sunny
skies and high temps generally from 65-70f. A warming trend is
expect through the weekend with nice overall conditions under mostly
clear skies. Highs Sunday and Monday look to be well into the 70s f
areawide. We could see some locations even touch 80f on Monday.
Evans
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
IFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period, with
some improvement to low-end MVFR cigs possible this afternoon.
Deterioration of both cigs and visibilities is expected overnight
tonight with another round of fog developing after sunset. Fog
could become dense at times, particularly in the hours just before
sunrise. Some light showers/drizzle also remains a possibility in
the overnight hours. Tomorrow, conditions improve marginally
after sunrise but should still be within IFR/low-end MVFR
thresholds. Look for winds out of the ESE, shifting further to the
SE as the day goes on tomorrow and increasing to around 10 knots.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2025
Marine fog will continue to be a factor through early Thursday
ahead of the approach of a cold front. Areas of dense fog, with
visibilities reduced to a mile or less, are possible overnight and
into tomorrow morning with some fog likely to linger into the
afternoon. Another round of dense fog is expected on Wednesday
night before a front moves through the area on Thursday
afternoon. This frontal passage will be accompanied by showers,
with moderate onshore winds shifting to the north in its wake.
It`s possible that a Small Craft Advisory may be needed as winds
and seas increase ahead of the front. Light offshore winds prevail
into Saturday with onshore winds returning on Sunday.
Cady
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 69 61 71 / 30 40 70 100
Houston (IAH) 56 70 63 74 / 20 30 30 90
Galveston (GLS) 54 62 58 66 / 10 20 10 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cady
Snoresville forecast. We've only had about 1.3 inches of rain, which is fine.
Tomorrow night and Thursday are a wash.
At least the weekend looks sunny and pleasant. I can finally work on the clear coat on the Civic.
Tomorrow night and Thursday are a wash.
At least the weekend looks sunny and pleasant. I can finally work on the clear coat on the Civic.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
016
FXUS64 KHGX 291031
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Areas of light drizzle, light rain and fog across the area this
morning with a saturated llvl airmass in place. A string of
vorticity/impulses embedded in the swly flow aloft is currently
pushing into the area, and should generally transition the higher
measurable rain chances into the northern parts of the CWA as the
day progresses. A more serly wind flow will resume areawide driving
higher dewpoints and Gulf/moisture into the region...so warmer,
cloudy & misty wx will continue with temps climbing into the 68-74F
range inland. Closer to the coast, low visibilities in sea fog
should somewhat improve near the northern/central bay areas in the
late morning, but reduced visibilities will probably linger through
a good part of the day across the southern bay/beaches considering
the cold water temps and elevated dewpoints in the area.
Tonight: warmer with lows in the 60s, but really more of the same wx
for most of the area with periods of drizzle & light rain at times
(and sea fog in the coastal waters). Upper trof situated across the
Desert Southwest will transition eastward. As it does so, anticipate
a band of showers and elevated convection should develop to our west
& northwest. A few of these showers and thunderstorms may try and
sneak into areas generally north of Brenham-Trinity in the 3-6am
time period.
Thursday: Upper trof and associated surface frontal boundary will
make continued eastward progress and closer/into Southeast Texas.
Enhanced lift will provide increasing shra/tstm chances...first
north and west of the US59/I69 corridor in the morning - then thru
the remainder of the region during the afternoon. The front should
pass into the nearshore waters in the hours surrounding sunset. As
far as severe wx chances go, it`ll be quite conditional. There
should be a 40-55kt llvl jet and plenty of shear in place. But
instability is on the low side with ongoing cloudiness, -ra and a
potential pre-frontal trof limiting things. But if we can get a
decent sustained surface based updraft going we could see a couple
strong to severe embedded cells. Wind would be the primary severe wx
threat with hail and tornadoes a secondary threat. Most of the area
is situated in a marginal severe wx risk, with a slight chance
(level 2/5) existing along and east of the I-45 corridor up to about
Huntsville-Trinity line.
Thursday night: Things quiet down as precip moves off to the
east/southeast and a cooler, drier airmass filters into the area.
Lows transition back down into the 45-55F range. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
By Friday morning, the cold front will be off the coast and we`ll be
left with pleasant conditions heading into the weekend as drier air
filters in along with surface high pressure. High temperatures on
Friday will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, but we do go a
warming trend through early next week. Friday night looks to be our
coldest night for a bit as low temperatures range from the low to
upper 40s areawide. Surface high pressure slides off to the east on
Saturday leading to a return of onshore flow and WAA. As a result,
expect temperatures and moisture to steadily climb through early
next week with highs reaching the low 70s on Saturday, mid to upper
70s on Sunday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. Yep...you read
that last part right. Southwesterly flow aloft combined with 850mb
temperatures at the 99th percentile will do that! Low temperatures
will see a similar climb up to the 50s on Sunday night and near 60
degrees on Monday night.
Uncertainty remains on rain chances early next week, so let`s take a
brief look at why that is. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough
passes through but you won`t really notice it other than the
development of some upper level clouds. However, an upper level low
is expected to cutoff from this trough near the border of South
Texas and Northeast Mexico. Some questions remain on the progression
of this upper level low, but both the deterministic GFS and Euro
keep it nearby going into midweek. With low-level moisture steadily
building and a lifting mechanism in place, I don`t see why there
wouldn`t be at least a slight chance of rain...so I added in 15-20%
PoPs for late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Poor flying conditions should prevail thru the majority of the day
and night. LIFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibility this morning with
periods of -dz, -ra, fg should very slowly lift northward and
ceilings maybe improving into low end MVFR as we get closer to 19-
21z inland. There are hints that there could be some brief
scattering of the lowest ceilings in the 22-02z timeframe, but
confidence in this occurring is somewhat low. Closer to the coast,
sea fog will probably be hugging the coast for most of the day so
not expecting much improvement there. Regardless, low ceilings will
fill back in everywhere the evening and overnight with IFR &
borderline LIFR prevailing with periods of -dz, br, -ra. Focus then
turns to tstm chances Thurs, but that`s beyond the current
scope of 12z TAFs. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Sea fog will continue to be the primary marine hazard over the next
couple of days until a cold front pushes offshore by Thursday
evening. There is a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the bays and
nearshore Gulf waters through 9am CST, but don`t be surprised if
this is extended by a few hours based on how things played out on
Tuesday morning. The fog should erode in the northern parts of
Galveston Bay by the afternoon, but looks to hang around the
southern portions of the bay throughout the day. Sea fog fills back
in overnight, but visibilities may not get as low due to wind speeds
increasing ahead of an approaching weather system.
Onshore flow will strengthen throughout the day leading to
an upward trend in winds and seas. As a result, there will be a
mixture of caution flags and advisories for the Gulf waters
beginning later this afternoon extending into Thursday night. Winds
subside rather quickly behind the front with light to moderate
northwesterly winds prevailing, but seas may take until Friday
morning to recede below caution flag threshold. Benign marine
conditions are expected over most of the weekend, but onshore flow
returns by Sunday morning. This does open the potential for sea fog
to return as dew points begin to surge back into the upper 50s/low
60s.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 63 69 46 / 60 70 80 0
Houston (IAH) 72 64 73 50 / 60 20 80 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 58 66 53 / 50 20 80 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from late tonight through
Thursday evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this evening for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
Thursday night for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 291031
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Areas of light drizzle, light rain and fog across the area this
morning with a saturated llvl airmass in place. A string of
vorticity/impulses embedded in the swly flow aloft is currently
pushing into the area, and should generally transition the higher
measurable rain chances into the northern parts of the CWA as the
day progresses. A more serly wind flow will resume areawide driving
higher dewpoints and Gulf/moisture into the region...so warmer,
cloudy & misty wx will continue with temps climbing into the 68-74F
range inland. Closer to the coast, low visibilities in sea fog
should somewhat improve near the northern/central bay areas in the
late morning, but reduced visibilities will probably linger through
a good part of the day across the southern bay/beaches considering
the cold water temps and elevated dewpoints in the area.
Tonight: warmer with lows in the 60s, but really more of the same wx
for most of the area with periods of drizzle & light rain at times
(and sea fog in the coastal waters). Upper trof situated across the
Desert Southwest will transition eastward. As it does so, anticipate
a band of showers and elevated convection should develop to our west
& northwest. A few of these showers and thunderstorms may try and
sneak into areas generally north of Brenham-Trinity in the 3-6am
time period.
Thursday: Upper trof and associated surface frontal boundary will
make continued eastward progress and closer/into Southeast Texas.
Enhanced lift will provide increasing shra/tstm chances...first
north and west of the US59/I69 corridor in the morning - then thru
the remainder of the region during the afternoon. The front should
pass into the nearshore waters in the hours surrounding sunset. As
far as severe wx chances go, it`ll be quite conditional. There
should be a 40-55kt llvl jet and plenty of shear in place. But
instability is on the low side with ongoing cloudiness, -ra and a
potential pre-frontal trof limiting things. But if we can get a
decent sustained surface based updraft going we could see a couple
strong to severe embedded cells. Wind would be the primary severe wx
threat with hail and tornadoes a secondary threat. Most of the area
is situated in a marginal severe wx risk, with a slight chance
(level 2/5) existing along and east of the I-45 corridor up to about
Huntsville-Trinity line.
Thursday night: Things quiet down as precip moves off to the
east/southeast and a cooler, drier airmass filters into the area.
Lows transition back down into the 45-55F range. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
By Friday morning, the cold front will be off the coast and we`ll be
left with pleasant conditions heading into the weekend as drier air
filters in along with surface high pressure. High temperatures on
Friday will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, but we do go a
warming trend through early next week. Friday night looks to be our
coldest night for a bit as low temperatures range from the low to
upper 40s areawide. Surface high pressure slides off to the east on
Saturday leading to a return of onshore flow and WAA. As a result,
expect temperatures and moisture to steadily climb through early
next week with highs reaching the low 70s on Saturday, mid to upper
70s on Sunday, and upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. Yep...you read
that last part right. Southwesterly flow aloft combined with 850mb
temperatures at the 99th percentile will do that! Low temperatures
will see a similar climb up to the 50s on Sunday night and near 60
degrees on Monday night.
Uncertainty remains on rain chances early next week, so let`s take a
brief look at why that is. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough
passes through but you won`t really notice it other than the
development of some upper level clouds. However, an upper level low
is expected to cutoff from this trough near the border of South
Texas and Northeast Mexico. Some questions remain on the progression
of this upper level low, but both the deterministic GFS and Euro
keep it nearby going into midweek. With low-level moisture steadily
building and a lifting mechanism in place, I don`t see why there
wouldn`t be at least a slight chance of rain...so I added in 15-20%
PoPs for late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Poor flying conditions should prevail thru the majority of the day
and night. LIFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibility this morning with
periods of -dz, -ra, fg should very slowly lift northward and
ceilings maybe improving into low end MVFR as we get closer to 19-
21z inland. There are hints that there could be some brief
scattering of the lowest ceilings in the 22-02z timeframe, but
confidence in this occurring is somewhat low. Closer to the coast,
sea fog will probably be hugging the coast for most of the day so
not expecting much improvement there. Regardless, low ceilings will
fill back in everywhere the evening and overnight with IFR &
borderline LIFR prevailing with periods of -dz, br, -ra. Focus then
turns to tstm chances Thurs, but that`s beyond the current
scope of 12z TAFs. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025
Sea fog will continue to be the primary marine hazard over the next
couple of days until a cold front pushes offshore by Thursday
evening. There is a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the bays and
nearshore Gulf waters through 9am CST, but don`t be surprised if
this is extended by a few hours based on how things played out on
Tuesday morning. The fog should erode in the northern parts of
Galveston Bay by the afternoon, but looks to hang around the
southern portions of the bay throughout the day. Sea fog fills back
in overnight, but visibilities may not get as low due to wind speeds
increasing ahead of an approaching weather system.
Onshore flow will strengthen throughout the day leading to
an upward trend in winds and seas. As a result, there will be a
mixture of caution flags and advisories for the Gulf waters
beginning later this afternoon extending into Thursday night. Winds
subside rather quickly behind the front with light to moderate
northwesterly winds prevailing, but seas may take until Friday
morning to recede below caution flag threshold. Benign marine
conditions are expected over most of the weekend, but onshore flow
returns by Sunday morning. This does open the potential for sea fog
to return as dew points begin to surge back into the upper 50s/low
60s.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 63 69 46 / 60 70 80 0
Houston (IAH) 72 64 73 50 / 60 20 80 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 58 66 53 / 50 20 80 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from late tonight through
Thursday evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this evening for GMZ370-375.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
Thursday night for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
We got a 2024 EX last summer for our boys and we take that car everywhere. The 'nice' cars sit in the garage all weekend while we argue over who gets to take the Civic haha. They are so much fun to drive.
That cold air may have a hard time getting down to SE Texas. Fine with me, I'm ready to start my Spring gardening.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
737
FXUS64 KHGX 301201
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Reduced visibilities due to fog will continue this morning.
Visibilities appear to have rebounded for the moment; however, with
dewpoint depressions very low, expecting our "sunrise surprise" fog
to tank visibilities going into the morning commute. Remember to
leave extra space between vehicles and use low-beam headlights. Fog
is expected to linger around the area through the morning hours
before a cold front moves through today.
Speaking more on the cold front...it is set to arrive from the NW
and will enter the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area around the mid to
late morning hours. It will slowly push through Southeast Texas and
is expected to be offshore around mid-afternoon. The threat for
severe weather remains conditional. At this point, instability does
not look that impressive (most likely CAPE values around 500 J/kg
with 90th percentile around 800-900 J/kg). Shear values, however,
are more impressive with effective shear values around 50 kts.
Essentially, we are looking at a High Shear/Low CAPE environment, or
an HSLC environment. These are common in cooler months and despite
the low instability, this environment is capable of producing severe
weather. Damaging winds will be the main hazard, particularly with
any discrete cells that form ahead of the line of storms, or with
the line of storms along the cold front itself. The secondary hazard
would be the potential for a brief tornado. SRH values in the lower
levels are supportive of rotating storms; however, HSLC environments
are difficult to say with certainty whether or not rotating storms
will materialize. The hail threat is a tertiary hazard, but not
expecting this to be too much of a threat given lapse rates are on
the lower end.
In any case, stay aware of the weather today. SPC does have areas
along and east of the I-45 corridor (approximately Galveston to
Houston to Conroe and east) in a Slight Risk for severe weather
(level 2 of 5), including the City of Houston. Elsewhere, with the
exception of the southernmost portion of the CWA is in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. In addition to the severe
weather threat, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive Rainfall for the NW portion of SE Texas.
Once the front moves through, cooler and drier air will move in from
behind bringing clearer skies for Friday and slightly cooler
temperatures.
High temperatures today will generally be in the low to mid 70s
inland with the coast sitting in the upper 60s. Lows for tonight
will be in the 40s to low 50s. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to
upper 60s with a few locations reaching 70 degrees. Lows Friday
night will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the 40s area
wide. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Drier & more tranquil wx is expected this weekend with surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Look for lows in the 40s and highs
70-75 under mostly sunny skies. As the high passes off to the
east, winds will swing around to the se/s bringing higher dewpoint
air into the region later in the weekend and through much of next
week. Expect warmer conditions with overnight lows trending upward
into the 60s and daytime highs in the 75-80F range along with
increasing cloud cover. Rain chances look pretty slim with the
lack of any significant forcing or wx systems passing through, but
can`t rule out some isolated diurnally driven activity as we head
into midweek. Closer to the coast, it appears sea fog could be an
issue for a good portion of next week with higher dewpoint air
lingering above cold water and light onshore winds. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
MVFR/IFR conditions ongoing with low CIGs prevailing ahead of a
cold front. FROPA is expected at CLL around 15Z and will move
offshore around 21Z this afternoon. Winds out of SE at 10-15 kts
with gusts to 20-25 kts will continue this morning. Winds will
become northwesterly behind the front. Not expecting conditions to
improve until after FROPA from NW to SE. Isolated prefrontal
showers are expected this morning with a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving through along the frontal boundary. Some
storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and an
isolated tornado.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Areas of sea fog will continue today...with partial clearing into
the northern to central bays probable in the late morning hours.
From near the immediate coast and nearshore waters, it will
probably linger throughout the day, though elevated wind speeds
could allow for varying visibilities.
Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas well offshore will
continue with Small Craft Advisories in effect. With colder water
nearshore, wind speeds will be a touch less so maintained the
caution flags there.
A weak frontal boundary will be moving in from the west and
northwest this afternoon and early evening. Periodic showers are
likely ahead of the front and a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms are possible. Mariners should look for a wind shift
around 3pm in the Matagorda area and around sunset Galveston area.
Drier conditions with offshore flow will then prevail into
Saturday morning.
Onshore winds resume during the day Saturday. The threat of sea
fog formation gradually increases Sunday night...and we will need
to monitor for perhaps a longer duration event for a good part of
next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 46 68 42 / 90 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 50 68 46 / 90 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 64 50 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ213-214-
237-238-313-337-338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 301201
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Reduced visibilities due to fog will continue this morning.
Visibilities appear to have rebounded for the moment; however, with
dewpoint depressions very low, expecting our "sunrise surprise" fog
to tank visibilities going into the morning commute. Remember to
leave extra space between vehicles and use low-beam headlights. Fog
is expected to linger around the area through the morning hours
before a cold front moves through today.
Speaking more on the cold front...it is set to arrive from the NW
and will enter the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area around the mid to
late morning hours. It will slowly push through Southeast Texas and
is expected to be offshore around mid-afternoon. The threat for
severe weather remains conditional. At this point, instability does
not look that impressive (most likely CAPE values around 500 J/kg
with 90th percentile around 800-900 J/kg). Shear values, however,
are more impressive with effective shear values around 50 kts.
Essentially, we are looking at a High Shear/Low CAPE environment, or
an HSLC environment. These are common in cooler months and despite
the low instability, this environment is capable of producing severe
weather. Damaging winds will be the main hazard, particularly with
any discrete cells that form ahead of the line of storms, or with
the line of storms along the cold front itself. The secondary hazard
would be the potential for a brief tornado. SRH values in the lower
levels are supportive of rotating storms; however, HSLC environments
are difficult to say with certainty whether or not rotating storms
will materialize. The hail threat is a tertiary hazard, but not
expecting this to be too much of a threat given lapse rates are on
the lower end.
In any case, stay aware of the weather today. SPC does have areas
along and east of the I-45 corridor (approximately Galveston to
Houston to Conroe and east) in a Slight Risk for severe weather
(level 2 of 5), including the City of Houston. Elsewhere, with the
exception of the southernmost portion of the CWA is in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. In addition to the severe
weather threat, there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive Rainfall for the NW portion of SE Texas.
Once the front moves through, cooler and drier air will move in from
behind bringing clearer skies for Friday and slightly cooler
temperatures.
High temperatures today will generally be in the low to mid 70s
inland with the coast sitting in the upper 60s. Lows for tonight
will be in the 40s to low 50s. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to
upper 60s with a few locations reaching 70 degrees. Lows Friday
night will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the 40s area
wide. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Drier & more tranquil wx is expected this weekend with surface
high pressure in the vicinity. Look for lows in the 40s and highs
70-75 under mostly sunny skies. As the high passes off to the
east, winds will swing around to the se/s bringing higher dewpoint
air into the region later in the weekend and through much of next
week. Expect warmer conditions with overnight lows trending upward
into the 60s and daytime highs in the 75-80F range along with
increasing cloud cover. Rain chances look pretty slim with the
lack of any significant forcing or wx systems passing through, but
can`t rule out some isolated diurnally driven activity as we head
into midweek. Closer to the coast, it appears sea fog could be an
issue for a good portion of next week with higher dewpoint air
lingering above cold water and light onshore winds. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
MVFR/IFR conditions ongoing with low CIGs prevailing ahead of a
cold front. FROPA is expected at CLL around 15Z and will move
offshore around 21Z this afternoon. Winds out of SE at 10-15 kts
with gusts to 20-25 kts will continue this morning. Winds will
become northwesterly behind the front. Not expecting conditions to
improve until after FROPA from NW to SE. Isolated prefrontal
showers are expected this morning with a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving through along the frontal boundary. Some
storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and an
isolated tornado.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Areas of sea fog will continue today...with partial clearing into
the northern to central bays probable in the late morning hours.
From near the immediate coast and nearshore waters, it will
probably linger throughout the day, though elevated wind speeds
could allow for varying visibilities.
Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas well offshore will
continue with Small Craft Advisories in effect. With colder water
nearshore, wind speeds will be a touch less so maintained the
caution flags there.
A weak frontal boundary will be moving in from the west and
northwest this afternoon and early evening. Periodic showers are
likely ahead of the front and a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms are possible. Mariners should look for a wind shift
around 3pm in the Matagorda area and around sunset Galveston area.
Drier conditions with offshore flow will then prevail into
Saturday morning.
Onshore winds resume during the day Saturday. The threat of sea
fog formation gradually increases Sunday night...and we will need
to monitor for perhaps a longer duration event for a good part of
next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 46 68 42 / 90 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 50 68 46 / 90 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 64 50 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ213-214-
237-238-313-337-338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
The front is getting ready to blast through College Station early and overperform this afternoon and tonight. A line of showers will move through. There could be some straight line winds but the cold air rush doesn't leave much of a warm sector, so I don't believe there will be severe weather.
Early March or even late February could be a different story. I would not be surprised to see an early severe season in the South.
Early March or even late February could be a different story. I would not be surprised to see an early severe season in the South.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A line of showers continues to move through the area, producing
brief stronger wind gusts and reduced visibilities. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions to remain in place into the afternoon as the
line pushes SE across the region, with some light showers
lingering behind the front. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible at times, but we do not anticipate a significant severe
weather threat with this system. As the front pushes through, NW
winds develop in its wake with conditions at time becoming light
and variable overnight. Cigs improve to VFR overnight with skies
mostly clear by early Friday. NW winds of 10-15 knots develop by
late tomorrow morning, with some higher gusts at times.
A line of showers continues to move through the area, producing
brief stronger wind gusts and reduced visibilities. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions to remain in place into the afternoon as the
line pushes SE across the region, with some light showers
lingering behind the front. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible at times, but we do not anticipate a significant severe
weather threat with this system. As the front pushes through, NW
winds develop in its wake with conditions at time becoming light
and variable overnight. Cigs improve to VFR overnight with skies
mostly clear by early Friday. NW winds of 10-15 knots develop by
late tomorrow morning, with some higher gusts at times.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
056
FXUS64 KHGX 302146
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A significant lack of surface-based instability and low low-level
lapse rates has greatly inhibited the development of thunderstorms
this afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the area.
Still, widely available low-level moisture and elevated bulk
shear (~50kt) may yet prove favorable for a few rumbles of thunder
before the end of the afternoon. Otherwise, scattered showers
should continue to clear the area from NW to SE as we head into
the early evening, with the boundary expected to clear the coast
in the next few hours. Cold advection behind the front will
initially be weak, but sufficient enough (along with radiative
cooling) to drop overnight lows tonight into the upper 40s/lower
50s. The arrival of drier air will also put an end to the fog
threat for the time being.
A reinforcing front will arrive early on Friday, shifting surface
winds further to the NW and increasing sustained speeds to near 15
mph. Friday`s weather will otherwise be unremarkable with highs in
the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s. Winds will
gradually diminish over the course of the day, eventually becoming
light or calm overnight.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will build into
the region. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the mid 60s to
low 70s. A benign weather pattern will remain in place through the
middle of next week with zonal flow aloft. We will see a gradual
warmup with above normal temperatures beginning on Sunday where
highs will reach the mid/upper 70s inland. Onshore flow will quickly
return this weekend which will also allow moisture levels to rise
through the period. Although moisture levels rise, no significant
chances of rain due to high pressure dominating the forecast. This
is a weather pattern that will support sea/coastal fog during the
overnight and morning hours beginning Sunday night and continuing
through mid week. Afternoon max temps will be around 80 inland Mon
through Wed.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A line of showers continues to move through the area, producing
brief stronger wind gusts and reduced visibilities. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions to remain in place into the afternoon as the
line pushes SE across the region, with some light showers
lingering behind the front. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible at times, but we do not anticipate a significant severe
weather threat with this system. As the front pushes through, NW
winds develop in its wake with conditions at time becoming light
and variable overnight. Cigs improve to VFR overnight with skies
mostly clear by early Friday. NW winds of 10-15 knots develop by
late tomorrow morning, with some higher gusts at times.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
The cold front will push off the coast late aft/early eve and end
the nearshore/bay fog. Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas
well offshore will continue with Small Craft Advisories in effect.
With colder water nearshore, wind speeds will be less so maintained
the caution flags there. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible ahead of and near the front. Mariners should look for a
wind shift around 3pm in the Matagorda area and around sunset in the
Galveston area. The offshore winds will weaken late tonight, but
pick back up mid-day Friday when a secondary front moves
through and the surface pressure gradient tightens.
Onshore winds resume during the day on Saturday. The threat of sea
fog formation gradually increases beginning on Sunday night...and it
is likely that we will see a long duration fog event for a good part
of next week. With the warm afternoon temperatures, there will be a
few hours each afternoon and early in the evening that we should see
a break in the fog coverage over the bays, but likely to see areas
of fog overnight and through the morning hours across the bays and
the nearshore waters.
Wood
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 46 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 51 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 63 50 60 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ335-350-
355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Friday for
GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Wood
FXUS64 KHGX 302146
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A significant lack of surface-based instability and low low-level
lapse rates has greatly inhibited the development of thunderstorms
this afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the area.
Still, widely available low-level moisture and elevated bulk
shear (~50kt) may yet prove favorable for a few rumbles of thunder
before the end of the afternoon. Otherwise, scattered showers
should continue to clear the area from NW to SE as we head into
the early evening, with the boundary expected to clear the coast
in the next few hours. Cold advection behind the front will
initially be weak, but sufficient enough (along with radiative
cooling) to drop overnight lows tonight into the upper 40s/lower
50s. The arrival of drier air will also put an end to the fog
threat for the time being.
A reinforcing front will arrive early on Friday, shifting surface
winds further to the NW and increasing sustained speeds to near 15
mph. Friday`s weather will otherwise be unremarkable with highs in
the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s. Winds will
gradually diminish over the course of the day, eventually becoming
light or calm overnight.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will build into
the region. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the mid 60s to
low 70s. A benign weather pattern will remain in place through the
middle of next week with zonal flow aloft. We will see a gradual
warmup with above normal temperatures beginning on Sunday where
highs will reach the mid/upper 70s inland. Onshore flow will quickly
return this weekend which will also allow moisture levels to rise
through the period. Although moisture levels rise, no significant
chances of rain due to high pressure dominating the forecast. This
is a weather pattern that will support sea/coastal fog during the
overnight and morning hours beginning Sunday night and continuing
through mid week. Afternoon max temps will be around 80 inland Mon
through Wed.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A line of showers continues to move through the area, producing
brief stronger wind gusts and reduced visibilities. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions to remain in place into the afternoon as the
line pushes SE across the region, with some light showers
lingering behind the front. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible at times, but we do not anticipate a significant severe
weather threat with this system. As the front pushes through, NW
winds develop in its wake with conditions at time becoming light
and variable overnight. Cigs improve to VFR overnight with skies
mostly clear by early Friday. NW winds of 10-15 knots develop by
late tomorrow morning, with some higher gusts at times.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
The cold front will push off the coast late aft/early eve and end
the nearshore/bay fog. Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas
well offshore will continue with Small Craft Advisories in effect.
With colder water nearshore, wind speeds will be less so maintained
the caution flags there. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible ahead of and near the front. Mariners should look for a
wind shift around 3pm in the Matagorda area and around sunset in the
Galveston area. The offshore winds will weaken late tonight, but
pick back up mid-day Friday when a secondary front moves
through and the surface pressure gradient tightens.
Onshore winds resume during the day on Saturday. The threat of sea
fog formation gradually increases beginning on Sunday night...and it
is likely that we will see a long duration fog event for a good part
of next week. With the warm afternoon temperatures, there will be a
few hours each afternoon and early in the evening that we should see
a break in the fog coverage over the bays, but likely to see areas
of fog overnight and through the morning hours across the bays and
the nearshore waters.
Wood
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 46 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 51 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 63 50 60 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ335-350-
355.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Friday for
GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Wood
I’ve managed 0.36” of rain this week. Yeah that big blob of 5”+ forecasted by the HPC was way overblown.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
211
FXUS64 KHGX 311159
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Northwesterly to northerly flow will keep highs in the 60s to near
70 degrees today. A closed low at the 500 mb level will move east
across the Plains today, with a vort max cutting across SE Texas as
it does so. This will result in mid to upper level cloud cover
through much of the day, clearing out from NW to SE later this
afternoon into the evening hours. Clear skies will prevail overnight
and enhance radiational cooling. This will allow lows to dip into
the 40s area wide, with a few locations in the northern Piney Woods
touching the upper 30s.
Winds will take a more southerly component in the lower levels going
into Saturday, making highs a few degrees warmer. Temperatures
across the area will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s under
mostly sunny to sunny skies. Lows will be a touch warmer on Saturday
night. Inland areas will be in the 40s with the coast in the low
50s. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Surface high pressure should be situated to our east by Sunday.
With the return se/s winds off the Gulf, look for a warming trend
to ensue heading into next week. Expecting overnight lows in the
60s and daytime highs close to the 80F mark inland for a good part
of next week. Closer to the coast, sea fog is looking like it
might be a daily issue, so clouds/fog/lower water temps will
probably maintain highs 66-72F closer to the beaches. Though one
cannot rule out an isolated stray shower or two toward midweek,
there`s really not much in the way of forcing mechanisms (wx
systems/fronts) for a clear cut trigger at least through Thursday.
A mix of guidance suggests the next front makes its way into the
area late Thursday night or Friday, while others suggest not until
later in the weekend. 47
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Light west-northwesterly winds and clearing skies will continue
through daybreak with most sites staying in VFR. The one exception
is CXO where light winds, moist soils, and clearing skies has led
to the development of some patchy, but dense, fog. This fog may
expand to include UTS, but coverage is expected to be limited and
any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop by the late morning and continue
through the afternoon with sustained winds of 8-12kt and gusts to
near 20kt. Winds relax by sunset with another night of
light/variable winds expected.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
VFR conditions across the board through the TAF period. Winds will
be out of the NW through the day today, gusting to around 20 knots
at times. Winds become calm later this afternoon through the
overnight hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
A remnant 7ft SE swell is still showing at buoy 42019 offshore.
It`s on a gradual downward trend, but will extend the small craft
advsy until mid morning in the Gulf waters beyond 20nm offshore.
Otherwise, look for a drier airmass to move into the region as
the morning progresses. As this occurs light west to southwesterly
winds will become northwest and increase in speed. High pressure
will move overhead then off to the east late Saturday. Onshore
winds resume Saturday afternoon and then prevails through a good
part of next week. The threat of sea fog formation gradually
increases Sunday night, and it appears conditions might be
favorable for a longer duration sea fog event setting up next
week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 50 60 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 311159
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Northwesterly to northerly flow will keep highs in the 60s to near
70 degrees today. A closed low at the 500 mb level will move east
across the Plains today, with a vort max cutting across SE Texas as
it does so. This will result in mid to upper level cloud cover
through much of the day, clearing out from NW to SE later this
afternoon into the evening hours. Clear skies will prevail overnight
and enhance radiational cooling. This will allow lows to dip into
the 40s area wide, with a few locations in the northern Piney Woods
touching the upper 30s.
Winds will take a more southerly component in the lower levels going
into Saturday, making highs a few degrees warmer. Temperatures
across the area will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s under
mostly sunny to sunny skies. Lows will be a touch warmer on Saturday
night. Inland areas will be in the 40s with the coast in the low
50s. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Surface high pressure should be situated to our east by Sunday.
With the return se/s winds off the Gulf, look for a warming trend
to ensue heading into next week. Expecting overnight lows in the
60s and daytime highs close to the 80F mark inland for a good part
of next week. Closer to the coast, sea fog is looking like it
might be a daily issue, so clouds/fog/lower water temps will
probably maintain highs 66-72F closer to the beaches. Though one
cannot rule out an isolated stray shower or two toward midweek,
there`s really not much in the way of forcing mechanisms (wx
systems/fronts) for a clear cut trigger at least through Thursday.
A mix of guidance suggests the next front makes its way into the
area late Thursday night or Friday, while others suggest not until
later in the weekend. 47
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Light west-northwesterly winds and clearing skies will continue
through daybreak with most sites staying in VFR. The one exception
is CXO where light winds, moist soils, and clearing skies has led
to the development of some patchy, but dense, fog. This fog may
expand to include UTS, but coverage is expected to be limited and
any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop by the late morning and continue
through the afternoon with sustained winds of 8-12kt and gusts to
near 20kt. Winds relax by sunset with another night of
light/variable winds expected.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
VFR conditions across the board through the TAF period. Winds will
be out of the NW through the day today, gusting to around 20 knots
at times. Winds become calm later this afternoon through the
overnight hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
A remnant 7ft SE swell is still showing at buoy 42019 offshore.
It`s on a gradual downward trend, but will extend the small craft
advsy until mid morning in the Gulf waters beyond 20nm offshore.
Otherwise, look for a drier airmass to move into the region as
the morning progresses. As this occurs light west to southwesterly
winds will become northwest and increase in speed. High pressure
will move overhead then off to the east late Saturday. Onshore
winds resume Saturday afternoon and then prevails through a good
part of next week. The threat of sea fog formation gradually
increases Sunday night, and it appears conditions might be
favorable for a longer duration sea fog event setting up next
week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 50 60 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
-
tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Gusty northwest winds this afternoon become light and variable
tonight. Non-zero chance of isolated patchy fog, though presently
KLBX is most likely to be impacted, if any forms at all. Wind
shift around to the south on Saturday. VFR conditions prevailing.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Gusty northwest winds this afternoon become light and variable
tonight. Non-zero chance of isolated patchy fog, though presently
KLBX is most likely to be impacted, if any forms at all. Wind
shift around to the south on Saturday. VFR conditions prevailing.