January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4230
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

TxLady wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:24 am Admittedly, I haven't gone back through the posts to see if my question may have already been answered. So, forgive, if it is a repeated subject. I would like to know if there is any historic/documented evidence to support the idea that the years we get Hurricane's are the years we also get Snow? Maybe a Ptarmigan question?
Upper Texas Coast Tropical Cyclones After Snowfall (November to March)
https://web.archive.org/web/20191129235 ... nowhou.htm

February 1895-Tropical Storm #4
February 1899?-Tropical Storm #1
January 1912-Hurricane #6
January 1918-Louisiana Hurricane of 1918
March 1932-Freeport Hurricane of 1932
January 1940-Hurricane #2
January 1949-Hurricane #11
February 1958-Alma, Ella, and Gerda
February 1960-Tropical Storm #1
January 1961-Carla
January/February 1963-Cindy
February 1964-Abby
March 1968 (1 inch snow fell at Hobby Airport on March 22)-Candy
January/February 1973-Delia and Tropical Depression #11
January 1978-Amelia and Debra
February 1980-Allen and Danielle
January/February 1981-Tropical Depression #2, #4, and #8
January/February 1985-Juan
February 1989-Allison, Chantal, and Jerry
January 1995-Dean
December 2004-Rita
December 2009/February 2010-Alex, Tropical Depression #2, and Hermine
November 2018-Imelda
February 2021-Nicholas
January 2024-Beryl

Includes Southwest Louisiana and South Texas.

Wide ranging from tropical depression to major hurricanes. Some are major hurricanes like Carla and Rita. Some are very wet storms like in 1899, 1981, and Imelda (2019). Many of these storms tend to be on the wet side. I included some storms that made landfall in South Texas, Mexico, and Central Louisiana.

Houston likely had snow in January 1886 as it snowed in Galveston that time. 1886 had Hurricane #1, Indianola Hurricane of 1886, Hurricane #8, and Hurricane #10.

The Great Freeze of 1885-1886
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/paig ... ze1886.pdf

Freeze of 1886
http://www.ausbcomp.com/%5C~bbott/subjects/freeze86.htm

In the January 1886 freeze, Galveston saw a low of 11°F That is the third lowest temperature on record for Galveston. Only February 1899 is colder.

Tompkins: Documenting Texas coast's big chills
http://www.chron.com/sports/article/Tom ... 687256.php

Snow in Galveston in 1895 (references snow in January 1886)
https://www.newspapers.com/clip/2769867 ... n-in-1895/

It also snowed that time and Galveston Bay froze over. 1885-1886 is second in terms of snowfall amount after 1894-1895.

Threaded Extreme
http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/
User avatar
don
Posts: 3025
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Also Hurricane Harvey 2017 ( December snowfall event)
Cpv17
Posts: 6418
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

don wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:04 pm Also Hurricane Harvey 2017 ( December snowfall event)
Also, it snowed in Houston in December 2008 after Ike.
User avatar
don
Posts: 3025
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:09 pm
don wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:04 pm Also Hurricane Harvey 2017 ( December snowfall event)
Also, it snowed in Houston in December 2008 after Ike.
Yep I still have pictures of that event, I will post them later if I can find them. The flakes were big and the snow was produced from a cold core low. I received around 1 inch where I lived in Spring at the time. I remember the NAM sniffed it out first.
Cpv17
Posts: 6418
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Lots of rain on the way, even S of I-10 now as well.
user:null
Posts: 462
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:04 pm
Location: The Land of Sugar
Contact:

So, how would you all rank the snow events?

Dec 2004
Dec 2008
Dec 2009
Dec 2017
Feb 2021
Jan 2025
Pas_Bon
Posts: 727
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
Location: League City, TX
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:44 pm Lots of rain on the way, even S of I-10 now as well.
I want more snow. Whaaaaaa
Pas_Bon
Posts: 727
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
Location: League City, TX
Contact:

user:null wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:51 pm So, how would you all rank the snow events?

Dec 2004
Dec 2008
Dec 2009
Dec 2017
Feb 2021
Jan 2025
I only moved to TX in 2013, but out of those 3 since

1) Jan 2025
2) Jan 2025
3) Jan 2025


2021 can kiss my *^#


I honestly don’t remember 2017. Oops.
davidiowx
Posts: 1142
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

user:null wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2025 1:51 pm So, how would you all rank the snow events?

Dec 2004
Dec 2008
Dec 2009
Dec 2017
Feb 2021
Jan 2025
That’s a tough one for me..

2004 - White Christmas was an epic one just due to the fact that it was Christmas Eve. I was 20 at the time and the first, and likely last, white Christmas down here.

2017 - also noteworthy because my wife and I lived off Memorial/Eldrige and I-10 and we had just got back from a summer vacation in Colorado (snowball fights still on the mountains lol). Then Harvey came and flooded our House for two weeks. Mostly due to the reservoir releases. So we moved to Richmond and closed right before Thanksgiving and it snowed a few weeks later. It was magical to say the least.

2025 - wins hands down due to the amount we got but, moreso due to seeing our 6 and 4 year old lose their minds for 2 days straight!

The others not mentioned were meh for me due to various reasons, but mostly because the totals were minimal and the snow was more sleeting/dry compared to the ones mentioned abcoe from what I recall.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6895
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

In College Station and depth of snow - there are three with about 5 inches IMBY:

February 2021 - legendary
January 2021 - nearly legendary, power stayed on!
December 2017 - melted on the streets quickly since it had been warm just a few days before the snow.

December 2004 is memorable because of our sojourn to Houston and the massive slowflakes - about 3-4 inches of snow. It piled up fast.

December 2008 - one of the first significant snow accumulations in College Station. 3-4 inches of the white stuff.

March 2008 - melted quickly but 2-3 inches

February 2010 - 2-3 inches

January 2025 is down the list - we were dry slotted and only received about 1/2-1 inch of wintry precip.
Cpv17
Posts: 6418
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Image

Sheesh
Pas_Bon
Posts: 727
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:58 am
Location: League City, TX
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2025 4:39 am Image

Sheesh
Yikes

Goodbye, drought. Good riddance.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 5785
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

088
FXUS64 KHGX 251139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Today is National Opposite Day...and this is quite fitting given
that we`re flipping the switch from the sunny skies of yesterday to
dreary overcast skies by the afternoon. It`s unfortunate that these
dreary and rainy conditions lined up to be over the weekend, but it
can count as a pro for the nap fans (that`s me!) out there. Surface
high pressure continues to nudge eastward allowing for onshore flow
to return this morning. Moisture advection will become a bit more
amplified in the late morning as surface low pressure develops in
Oklahoma, which places us in the warm sector. The combination of WAA
and a 35-40 kt LLJ developing overhead in association with the
development of that surface low will lead to gradually increasing
rain chances from west to east starting this afternoon. This`ll
start out as light rain showers, but we`ll get into some heavier
rain on Sunday...more on that in a bit. Some patchy fog development
will be possible tonight especially after midnight once winds become
lighter. As far as temperatures go, expect high temperatures to be
in the low to mid 60s. With overcast clouds overhead combined with
the increasing coverage in rainfall means we`ll see generally 10F
or less of a decrease in temperatures overnight...so expect lows in
the 50s.

Speaking of rainfall, let`s chat about Sunday. By Sunday morning, PW
values will be peaking above the 90th percentile as a slow-moving
frontal boundary approaches Southeast Texas. This frontal boundary
will be in a typical southwest to northeast orientation, which just
so happens to be the same orientation of the synoptic flow aloft.
This is a good indicator for the potential of training convection,
and with PW values exceeding the 90th percentile we`ll see some
showers/storms with decent rainfall rates especially with a 30-35 kt
LLJ to work with as well. Training convection along the frontal
boundary could lead to localized flooding in some locations, but
exactly the best potential for this remains a bit uncertain. The 00Z
CAMs catch most of the event, and most of them reflect maximum
rainfall totals of 2-4" but their placement of where these isolated
swaths occur varies a bit. The 00Z HREF LPMM also reflects this with
a few swaths of 2-4". This definitely won`t be a widespread flooding
issue, but areas that see those high rainfall rates for an extended
period of time could see some minor street flooding especially in
vulnerable areas. As a result, WPC has kept most of Southeast Texas
in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Sunday.

Sunday`s daytime temperatures are dependent on which side of the
front you`re on by the late morning/early afternoon hours. North of
the front around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, expect high
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. South of the front, expect
high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. The cold front does
eventually push offshore on Sunday night leading to low temperatures
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Since it`s still moving rather slowly,
moisture will remain elevated so those rain chances and overcast
clouds extend through Sunday night.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

An active weather pattern is expected in the long term with daily
rain and storm chances and potential for localized heavy rainfall.

Synoptically, the workweek will start off with a strong mid-upper
level low over the Pacific Northwest. We``ll talk more about this
trough later. Locally, a surface high pressure builds in behind a
cold front. This boundary should be over the coastal waters by early
Monday. Lingering showers and isolated storms will be possible along
the coast and Gulf waters in the morning, depending on the final
speed of the FROPA. Fore the remainder of the day, drier air will
continue to filter in as the surface high moves overhead.

A weak mid-level ridge builds in by Tuesday, decreasing rain/storm
chances. However, chances are non-zero as low to mid level moisture
quickly returns as southerly flow resumes during the day. This will
bring PWATS back into the 1.0 to 1.4 inches range by early Tuesday.
Therefore, kept up to 20 percent chance of rain for Tuesday.

Wednesday into Friday is becoming the wettest period of the long
term. A pronounced shortwave rises up in the flow aloft ahead of the
main upper low (the one mentioned in the 2nd paragraph)early
Wednesday, and will likely bring another chance of rain/storms.

Main upper level low will move over the Four Corners/southern
Rockies by midweek and in doing so will develop a surface low and
associated trough over central TX. Surface convergence, increasing
PV aloft along with a strengthening LLJ will support scattered to
widespread rain/storms Thursday and Friday. Of course, we`re still
several days out and specific details are not clear. Models are in
better agreement on keeping a wet forecast the second half of the
week, but still defers in strength and location of the heaviest
precipitation. Greater concern during this period will be the
potential for localized heavy rainfall as PWATs are in the 97.7th to
99th (even MAX?) percentile of climatology of both NAEFS and GEFS-M
Climate. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and the Shift of
Tails suggest low values for both, suggesting --at the moment-- this
rainfall event is not necessarily extreme. The main takeaway is that
rain/storm become likely towards the end of the week with a
potential for localized heavy rainfall.

Near seasonal temperatures can be expected through the week, though
warmer conditions (highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s) can be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the main storm system.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Satellite imagery reveals cloud cover moving in from the southwest
around Matagorda Bay, and that will be the general theme for the
day. Cloud cover will gradually increase from southwest to
northeast throughout the morning with ceilings on the decline.
MVFR conditions are expected to develop this afternoon starting
from the west, and the same for IFR conditions after sunset. Winds
this afternoon will be southeasterly with sustained winds around
10-15 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt at times. Isolated showers will
begin to develop this afternoon mainly west of I-45, but coverage
doesn`t increase till the overnight hours. On top of that, there
is potential for patchy fog to create decreased visibilities after
06Z/Sunday. Expect widespread rain showers and IFR to MVFR
conditions to persist throughout the day on Sunday. There is
potential for isolated thunderstorms as well, but the confidence
is relatively low so that has not been included in this TAF
package.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Today begins an active weather pattern with daily rain and storm
chances across the coastal waters. A few showers will be possible
today (mainly near Matagorda Bay) ahead of the next storm system
and cold front that will move through late Sunday night. The best
potential for scattered to widespread rain/storms will be on
Sunday with the frontal passage. Generally, moderate onshore winds
and seas from 3 to 6ft are expected through the weekend;
therefore, Caution Flags will be possible at times. Moderate
offshore winds are anticipated behind the front Sunday night into
Monday, before becoming onshore by Tuesday. The cold front will
stall over the Gulf waters early next week, as several
disturbances move through TX. This pattern will keep daily rain
and storm chances. The next best chance for precipitation arrive
towards the end of the week as a another strong disturbance moves
through central/eastern TX, dragging a cold front through the
waters by Thursday-Friday time frame.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 53 60 47 / 20 80 80 50
Houston (IAH) 63 55 68 52 / 20 60 90 70
Galveston (GLS) 60 56 64 53 / 10 30 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5766
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

31 here with a forecast low of 35. Bust.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 5785
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

8 to 14 Day Outlook
Attachments
814temp-new-2.gif
814temp-new-2.gif (1.08 MiB) Viewed 4668 times
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5766
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

WPC says 5” of rain this week.
In January?? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Cpv17
Posts: 6418
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 11:04 am WPC says 5” of rain this week.
In January?? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Last January there was some places in our area that got over a foot of rain in just a couple days.
User avatar
don
Posts: 3025
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

The models have trended north with the heaviest rainfall, Stratton will be happy. LOL
Attachments
p120i.gif
p120i.gif (53.67 KiB) Viewed 4275 times
Stratton20
Posts: 5285
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Yes i am haha, our part of the state definitely doesnt need much rain right now, our yard is still muddy from the melted snow, wouldnt mind a few more drier days before rain returns
Cpv17
Posts: 6418
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Yep. Only about 2-3” now across the area compared to the 4-7” that it was showing yesterday.
Post Reply
  • Information