January 2025

[Cpv17]

Map

This weekend might be a washout.

[jasons2k]

The mule palms were nice and toasty this morning. Covers came off at lunchtime.

[djmike]

* Bostwick - Interesting note....the 10 degrees Beaumont and at the Jack Brooks Airport tied the all-time record low of 10 set in 1906. The 10 degree low this morning actually was colder than Fairbanks, Alaska with 14 degrees.

The coldest temperatures this morning on the WeatherNET were noted in the maximum snow area near U.S. 90 and Interstate 10. These undoubtedly are all-time record lows:

5........Diamond D Ranch
6........Bevil Oaks ESD #1
6........1 mile north of Mauriceville
7........Pinewood
8........China ES
8........Nome City Hall
8........Lakeview
8........Vidor Junior High
8........Deweyville High School
8........Mauriceville Middle School
9........Utopia Ranch
9........LCM High School

An incredible winter event which produced all-time record lows and the 2nd heaviest snowfall on record.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

There was a recorded reading near New Iberia of -1.

[Cpv17]

Looks like most of the rain should stay N of I-10 over the next week or so. Probably 1-2” S of there and 3-5” N of there.

[Cpv17]

There was a recorded reading near New Iberia of -1.

Incredible, especially since that’s so close to the Gulf.

[tireman4]

966
FXUS64 KHGX 231143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

A weak cold front will continue to move over the region early this
morning. Minimal impacts are expected in the wake of the front, with
only a wind shift to the north-northwest. Building heights will
provide a quiet day and a gradual increase in temperatures. Weak CAA
along with cool 850:925 hPa temperatures will result in cool day.
However, it will feel warmer compared to previous days. NBM 75th and
90th percentile temperatures are really not too far apart most
locations. Overall, expect highs in the low to mid 50s. Another cold
night is on tap for SE TX tonight with sub freezing temperatures at
most inland locations. Mostly clear skies, light north winds and dry
conditions will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to
upper 30s.

Similar weather conditions can be expected on Friday with highs
mainly in the 50s under mostly sunny skies. Sfc high pressure will
move overhead throughout the day. Therefore, return/onshore flow
will resume by the afternoon, bringing a warmer and more humid
airmass inland. Overnight lows will finally be in near to above
freezing across the entire region. Coldest readings across the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

At the start of the weekend, surface high pressure will be off to
our east leading to a steady increase in low-level moisture through
the return of onshore flow. If we look a couple of km above the
surface, we`ll find a rather robust LLJ extending SW to NE across
central/east TX up towards the Great Lakes region. This is feeding
into surface low pressure well into Canada, but it will help by
providing an initial source of lift for the increasing moisture.
Moisture further increases towards the 90th percentile (~1.33") by
Saturday night and extending into Sunday as a slow-moving frontal
boundary pushes into Southeast Texas. The LLJ will still be there on
Sunday albeit a bit weaker, but likely still suitable enough for
some LLJ enhancement for shower/storm coverage. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible on Sunday with high rainfall rates in the
strongest storms. WPC has already placed the majority of Southeast
TX in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on
Sunday.

The return of onshore flow also means a steady upward trend in
temperatures...although there`s a brief pause into early next week
due to the FROPA on Sunday. In general, expect high temperatures in
the 50s/60s and low temperatures in the 40s/50s through Monday.
Tuesday and beyond we move into a more active weather pattern as an
upper level low approaches from the southwestern CONUS around
midweek and establishes southwesterly flow aloft. This will send
rounds of shortwaves/PVA to interact with the in-place moisture
giving us daily chances for showers/storms through most of the week.
There is a frontal boundary towards the end of the forecast period
that looks to surge low-level moisture and potentially giving us
another round of heavy rainfall, but there is too much uncertainty
on the exact timing of this. Just know that you`ll need to keep an
umbrella with you throughout the week. High temperatures will be
mainly in the 60s Tuesday onward to pair with low temperatures
mainly in the 50s.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A weak and dry
cold front moved through the terminals this morning, resulting in
northerly winds. Winds will strengthen up 10 knots from mid-
morning through late afternoon. Light and variable during the
evening/overnight hours.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Light northeast flow tonight will become increasingly moderate
during the daytime on Thursday following the passage of a dry cold
front. This will result in caution flags for at least the farshore
Gulf waters through Friday morning. Winds gradually transition to
easterly on Friday then southeasterly by early Saturday morning. The
onshore flow strengthens to moderate during the day on Saturday
likely necessitating at least caution flags into Sunday. Seas
increase in response and look to approach 6-7 feet Saturday night
into Sunday. Chances for showers/storms return late Saturday, but
will peak on Sunday afternoon/evening as a cold front pushes through
leading to offshore flow prevailing into Monday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 27 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 51 31 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 50 38 51 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 AM CST this morning
through Friday morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste

[Pas_Bon]

Well, that was fun.

My mom got 10.75" in Abbeville, Louisiana (Vermilion Parish).
Low temp there Tuesday night was 3.

[Cpv17]

Well, that was fun.

My mom got 10.75" in Abbeville, Louisiana (Vermilion Parish).
Low temp there Tuesday night was 3.

Hopefully we can do it again and sooner than later. Hate having to wait every 5-10 years (sometimes even longer). Be nice if we could do it at least once or twice every winter. What we just experienced only makes me want it even more.

[TxLady]

Admittedly, I haven't gone back through the posts to see if my question may have already been answered. So, forgive, if it is a repeated subject. I would like to know if there is any historic/documented evidence to support the idea that the years we get Hurricane's are the years we also get Snow? Maybe a Ptarmigan question?

[tireman4]

Admittedly, I haven't gone back through the posts to see if my question may have already been answered. So, forgive, if it is a repeated subject. I would like to know if there is any historic/documented evidence to support the idea that the years we get Hurricane's are the years we also get Snow? Maybe a Ptarmigan question?

Some Mets think there is a correlation between the two. I will let Ptarmigan handle the question. ( as well as the pro mets on board)

[tireman4]

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but.....

[tireman4]

Counties That Have Received Snow This Year

[Pas_Bon]

Counties That Have Received Snow This Year

Wow
Surreal

[DoctorMu]

There was a recorded reading near New Iberia of -1.

Holy ****

[Pas_Bon]

Well, with post-game analyses beginning in earnest, which model(s) sniffed out Enzo first? With regard to mesoscale models, I do recall the HRRR performed quite poorly 24hrs in advance., but GRAF did VERY nicely.

Which models nailed it?
Which models dropped the ball entirely?
We shall see.

[tireman4]

After Arctic spell, how does the rest of Houston’s winter look?
January 23, 2025 at 6:55 am by Eric Berger
In brief: Temperatures are generally a few degrees below freezing this morning across the metro area, and you’ll want to look out for a few icy patches on area roads. But Houston is well on the way to putting this Arctic freeze behind us. So what does the rest of winter look like here?

Cold update
Most of Houston is experiencing a light freeze this morning, but temperatures are generally about 10 degrees warmer than they were on Wednesday morning. As a result there likely are still a few slick spots on roadways around Houston, including a few freeway bridges and ramps. However, these are mostly navigable if you just take a little more time and care driving this morning. For locations where temperatures are below freezing, they will rise above freezing between 9 and 10 am CT today.


What does the Ghost of Winter Yet to Come have to say about the forecast for Houston?
The ghosts of Winter past, present, and yet to come
Now that we’re putting a significant Arctic blast in the rear view mirror, I want to take stock of the rest of winter in Houston. We’re much closer to the end than the beginning, as it is January 23. So far we’ve seen one much warmer than normal month in December, and one much colder than normal month in January. However, the final week of January looks to be fairly mild, with near normal temperatures after Friday.

Looking ahead to February, I expect we will slot back into a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in which the overall flow is more westerly (i.e. more moderate Pacific air masses) rather than northerly (i.e. Canadian and Arctic air masses) in nature. As a result the likely outcome for southern US states is warmer, according to NOAA’s monthly outlook. Although this does not mean we’re necessarily done with freezes for this year, it also would not shock me.


Temperatures are more likely to be above normal, than not, during February.
Thursday
We’ll see more sunshine today, and this should push high temperatures up to about 50 degrees for most of the area. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. I’d expect one more light freeze in Houston tonight, with the possibility of highs in the upper 20s for outlying areas.

Friday
This will be another fine, sunny day with highs perhaps a couple of degrees warmer, say in the lower 50s. As winds turn to come from the southwest, overnight lows will likely stay above freezing on Friday night for pretty much the entire metro area. However it will still be chilly, with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most locations.

Saturday
The overall pattern starts to change in a big way as high pressure shifts to the east, and we see an increasing onshore flow. This will allow for the development of some clouds on Saturday, and we’ll say goodbye to sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 60 or 65 degrees. Some light to moderate rainfall may approach the area by Saturday evening or Saturday night.


NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Sunday and Sunday night.
Sunday
This looks like a wet day as a slow-moving, weak front moves into, and stalls over Houston. Although we cannot rule out some briefly heavy rain, for the most part this day should just deliver a good soaking, with much of Houston picking up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Rain chances will probably be best in the middle of the day. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Rain chances continue, at a lower rate, overnight. Lows drop into the 50s.

Next week
Monday may see a bit of a cessation in rain, but the rest of next week should bring healthy chances each day as we enter a pattern dominated by an atmosphere with more moisture. Highs for the most part look to be in the 60s next week, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

[tireman4]

47
FXUS64 KHGX 232120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

After a historic/generational/pick-your-favorite-term snowfall
event along the Gulf Coast, we look to get back to some more
"typical" winter weather for the end of the week, complete with a
good slug of rainfall ahead of a not quite so frigid cold front
this weekend.

Before we get there though, we`ve got one more night for freezing
temps for virtually the whole area tonight, and another more
limited night of freezes tomorrow night. While it appears that
roads are largely back to normal thanks to a lot of sun and
afternoons above freezing, the nighttime chill will cause
refreezing where wet conditions do remain. A good rule of thumb:
if the road is wet this evening, it will be ice in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Benign weather is expected through the end of the work week as high
pressure builds over the state. Clear skies and dry conditions will
allow for strong nocturnal cooling overnight, bringing lows in the
20s/30s again for Friday morning. Center of the surface high moves
over SE Texas on Friday. Highs during the day should still be in the
50s, but around 2-3 degrees warmer than that of today. Surface high
pressure then pushes off to the east Friday night, allowing onshore
flow and moisture to slowly return. This influx of moisture will
limit minimum temperatures, putting lows for Saturday morning in the
30s inland and lower 40s along the immediate coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

This weekend features a return to winter conditions much closer to
the average for our area, so it will be a change from the past
week or so...but it will also be the same in that we`ve got a
weekend ahead with a cold front incoming and some active weather
ahead. But that weather will be back to dealing with our familiar
rainfall (and flooding potential?) rather than frozen
precipitation, so still different from what we`ve had.

The portion of the forecast period begins with us having a high to
the east of us, a developing low to the west, and here we are,
stuck in the middle with onshore flow. That flow looks to boost
our precipitable water values pretty high ahead of that next low,
and its attendant cold front. Both the Euro and NAEFS means are up
to the 90th percentile in PWAT by Sunday. Granted, 90th percentile
in late January is only clearing 1.25 inches, but seasonally
speaking, that`s still quite high for this time of year.

Of course, with an unseasonably high moisture pool ahead of an
incoming cold front, we`re set for a soggy stretch this weekend,
with PoPs increasing as early as Saturday night, but likely
peaking on Sunday with showers and storms ahead of and along the
front. This front does not look to be moving terribly quickly,
which is another thing to consider for any potential flooding
concerns. If one wished to make a pro/con, or perhaps more
accurately, an aggravating/mitigating list for this weekend, we`d
be looking at something along these lines:
Aggravating:
- Unseasonably high precipitable water, around/above the 90th
percentile
- A relatively slow-moving front providing focus for showers and
storms
- Cold, relatively saturated ground allowing for more runoff
- ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is showing a 0.5-0.7 QPF signal
over a portion of the area, indicating unseasonably high
rainfall is showing up in a number of its ensemble members.

Mitigating:
- Precipitable water values around around/over 1.25 inches in
ensemble means.
- Not climatologically anomalous Gulf inflow (below 90th
percentile)
- NBM probabilities for exceeding 1"/6 hr (likely less than 6
hours in convection) is 20 percent or less, and restricted to
areas east of I-45 and north of I-10.

So far, we`ve got a bit of a mixed bag here on concern for
excessive rain. The are definitely some climatological reasons for
raising our eyebrows. Though, on an absolute scale, the numbers
are not necessarily that scary. WPC has the eastern part of our
area in a marginal risk for excessive rain, which seems
appropriate. I am confident that because of the time of year,
we`ll see higher impacts for a given rainfall intensity than we
might expect. I`m just not sure that it`ll still be enough to
cause more than some really isolated concerns.

Digging even a little deeper, another thing to consider is
uncertainty in timing and intensity within the ensemble space.
Moving over to cluster analysis, it appears the top cluster in the
NAEFS/Euro grand ensemble indicates a slightly slower, and
rainier outcome. This is a cluster containing 38 percent of the
members. So, that could also be another mark in the aggravating
list of factors. The next most prominent cluster is a faster
solution, while the third most prominent cluster is a slower (and
slightly more east-nudged) solution. Finally bringing up the rear,
Cluster 4 is similar to the grand ensemble mean, but perhaps a
touch drier. We`ve definitely got some details to iron out, but at
least our main clusters are broadly similar to each other, with
variances that we should be able to hone in on to increase
confidence as we push into the weekend.

Beyond this weekend system, things look to chill out for at least
a few days. Offshore flow behind the front will usher in some
drier air, but it doesn`t look that much colder - the post-frontal
environment looks cooler, but still not too far from seasonal
averages. Winds also look to swing back around quickly to onshore
flow, pumping in some warmer, more humid air and pushing us back
above average into the new week. For those who want to get back to
some warmer weather, this will be nice...but it also sets us up to
build up a more favorable environment for showers and storms for
the second half of next week. Confidence in much of anything is
pretty low at this point, other than it looks pretty solid for
another round of showers and storms later next week. We`ll be
working to rough out some of those details in the days to come.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

VFR for the next 30+hours. Front is well off the coast and
remainder of sct/bkn cirrus should clear out by early evening.
Northerly winds 10-15kt should diminish around sunset, then
eventually swing back around to the SSE Friday afternoon as
surface high pressure moves off to the east.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025

Winds are beginning to moderate, particularly on the bays and
nearshore waters. However, strong northeast winds are expected
to remain on the offshore waters through tonight and into
tomorrow morning before diminishing. Caution flags are up for the
offshore Gulf waters through mid-morning. Those winds will
diminish and elevated seas subside as high pressure drifts across
the region tomorrow. The high exits off to the east tomorrow
night, and moderate onshore winds will develop for the weekend
along with seas of 3 to 6 feet. Chances for showers and storms
return late Saturday, as will the potential for some patchy sea
fog. Rain potential will peak on Sunday afternoon and evening as
a cold front pushes through. Offshore flow will prevail after the
front passes on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 25 57 33 59 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 29 54 37 61 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 35 51 45 61 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Luchs

[Scott747]

Admittedly, I haven't gone back through the posts to see if my question may have already been answered. So, forgive, if it is a repeated subject. I would like to know if there is any historic/documented evidence to support the idea that the years we get Hurricane's are the years we also get Snow? Maybe a Ptarmigan question?

I did some half a** research years ago. Of course I didn't save it and it got lost when Easternuswx changed over to Americanwx.

I initially focused on Texas (because of the 04 event) but eventually it was more overall Gulf focused. There was some correlation of a more active Gulf season but to be honest with such a small sample size I don't know how much stock I'd put into it.

No doubt we don't need any repeat of the tropical season that followed the 04 event....

[DoctorMu]

Admittedly, I haven't gone back through the posts to see if my question may have already been answered. So, forgive, if it is a repeated subject. I would like to know if there is any historic/documented evidence to support the idea that the years we get Hurricane's are the years we also get Snow? Maybe a Ptarmigan question?

I did some half a** research years ago. Of course I didn't save it and it got lost when Easternuswx changed over to Americanwx.

I initially focused on Texas (because of the 04 event) but eventually it was more overall Gulf focused. There was some correlation of a more active Gulf season but to be honest with such a small sample size I don't know how much stock I'd put into it.

No doubt we don't need any repeat of the tropical season that followed the 04 event....

The connection could be ENSO leaning toward La Niña. El Niño produces more shear during tropical season, lessening the risk of major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Over the last 15+ years, many of our cold and/or snow events have been in La Niña winters. El Niño winters feature a more active subtropical jet and fewer polar vortex outbreaks. There can also be extended dry and warm streaks like this past December.