January 2025
Tiny little light sleet pellets here in Timbergrove / Heights.
Flakes are getting bigger. Cant post a video so Ill post a snapshot but you can see the flakes streaming through the pic in Beaumont.
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
yeah I think after 9, maybe 10, it will pick up, after that it's 14hrs of flaky bliss lol
Who else is going to stay up all night? Hehe
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
NWS disco:
Synoptic models continue to remain on track with their depiction of a weak coastal low/trough in the Western Gulf that will continue to push northeastward tonight and into tomorrow. As this occurs, an amplified midlevel trough will push into the Southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Global models also placing SE TX within the right entrance region of a strong jet streak, thereby providing favorable conditions for vertical ascent/upper level divergence as the system approaches the SE TX coast.
Latest guidance indicates the onset of precipitation as early as 6 PM this evening across parts of the northern zones. Initial light precipitation is expected to fall as cold rain or a mix of rain, sleet, and snow as temperatures cool below freezing over the course of the overnight period. This could amount to some measurable snow and/or sleet before midnight, particularly across locations to the north of the I-10 corridor.
More significant precipitation will begin after midnight and likely peak between approximately 6 AM and Noon tomorrow as the aforementioned low pressure system pushes closer to the coast. Confidence remains high that most of this precipitation will fall as snow. However, we could see periods of a wintry mix depending on relatively small fluctuations in the temperature profile over the course of the event. Areas SW of the Houston Metro, where forecast soundings indicate a more robust layer of warm air aloft, may pick up some freezing rain during this time period with total ice accumulations between a hundredth and a tenth of an inch.
Between today`s suite of global model guidance, high resolution models, and probabilistic ensemble guidance, our forecast snowfall totals have experienced a slight shift to the south but otherwise have remained generally on track from the past few forecast packages. The heaviest snowfall continues to remain concentrated along and south of the I-10 corridor, particularly the southern portion of Metro Houston, Galveston Bay area, and the Galveston Island area. Widespread totals of 4-6" of snowfall are expected to fall in these locations, with the rest of SE Texas likely to see 1-3" of snowfall. Mesoscale models continue to show the potential of a few heavier bands of snow, and as such we could see some localized amounts higher than 6 inches. Winter precipitation should generally clear from north to south, with precipitation ending during the early afternoon hours. The temperature forecast tomorrow is complicated, and will be tied to the timing and location of any snowfall. Most locations will have the potential to break above freezing, if only slightly, but there`s a chance some areas may remain at or below freezing for the entire day. More clarity on this may not arrive until we are well into the event tomorrow.
Forecast snow totals certainly stand out in a historical context. While we will not break the all-time snowfall record for Houston (14" in 1895), a total of higher than 3" would surpass the 1960 winter storm as the second highest snowfall total in recorded history for Houston. As the forecast stands, this should be considered a generational winter storm event and its impacts should be taken seriously. Travel overnight and tomorrow will be extremely hazardous if not impossible for much of the area, and travel is highly discouraged. Roads will become slick and difficult to drive on, with icing possible on elevated roadways and bridges.
Synoptic models continue to remain on track with their depiction of a weak coastal low/trough in the Western Gulf that will continue to push northeastward tonight and into tomorrow. As this occurs, an amplified midlevel trough will push into the Southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Global models also placing SE TX within the right entrance region of a strong jet streak, thereby providing favorable conditions for vertical ascent/upper level divergence as the system approaches the SE TX coast.
Latest guidance indicates the onset of precipitation as early as 6 PM this evening across parts of the northern zones. Initial light precipitation is expected to fall as cold rain or a mix of rain, sleet, and snow as temperatures cool below freezing over the course of the overnight period. This could amount to some measurable snow and/or sleet before midnight, particularly across locations to the north of the I-10 corridor.
More significant precipitation will begin after midnight and likely peak between approximately 6 AM and Noon tomorrow as the aforementioned low pressure system pushes closer to the coast. Confidence remains high that most of this precipitation will fall as snow. However, we could see periods of a wintry mix depending on relatively small fluctuations in the temperature profile over the course of the event. Areas SW of the Houston Metro, where forecast soundings indicate a more robust layer of warm air aloft, may pick up some freezing rain during this time period with total ice accumulations between a hundredth and a tenth of an inch.
Between today`s suite of global model guidance, high resolution models, and probabilistic ensemble guidance, our forecast snowfall totals have experienced a slight shift to the south but otherwise have remained generally on track from the past few forecast packages. The heaviest snowfall continues to remain concentrated along and south of the I-10 corridor, particularly the southern portion of Metro Houston, Galveston Bay area, and the Galveston Island area. Widespread totals of 4-6" of snowfall are expected to fall in these locations, with the rest of SE Texas likely to see 1-3" of snowfall. Mesoscale models continue to show the potential of a few heavier bands of snow, and as such we could see some localized amounts higher than 6 inches. Winter precipitation should generally clear from north to south, with precipitation ending during the early afternoon hours. The temperature forecast tomorrow is complicated, and will be tied to the timing and location of any snowfall. Most locations will have the potential to break above freezing, if only slightly, but there`s a chance some areas may remain at or below freezing for the entire day. More clarity on this may not arrive until we are well into the event tomorrow.
Forecast snow totals certainly stand out in a historical context. While we will not break the all-time snowfall record for Houston (14" in 1895), a total of higher than 3" would surpass the 1960 winter storm as the second highest snowfall total in recorded history for Houston. As the forecast stands, this should be considered a generational winter storm event and its impacts should be taken seriously. Travel overnight and tomorrow will be extremely hazardous if not impossible for much of the area, and travel is highly discouraged. Roads will become slick and difficult to drive on, with icing possible on elevated roadways and bridges.
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
People north of i10 are going to be the winners because of the early start. Don’t know why they said south of i10 would be..not with the late start we r going to get with this it will be after midnight before we get anything here
The heaviest banding is going to be south as I understand it. There is a band readying itself to move into Galveston as we speakBrazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:43 pm People north of i10 are going to be the winners because of the early start. Don’t know why they said south of i10 would be..not with the late start we r going to get with this it will be after midnight before we get anything here
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AtascocitaWX
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:29 pm
- Location: Atascocita,Tx
- Contact:
Sleet out here in Atascocita
starting to see bigger flakes.
Edit - I just went outside and definitely some sleet mixed in still. I can hear it but see snow.
Edit - I just went outside and definitely some sleet mixed in still. I can hear it but see snow.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Jan 20, 2025 7:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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christinac2016
- Posts: 156
- Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:18 pm
- Location: The Woodlands
- Contact:
Something was/is falling in ORN. Mom thinks it’s sleet. I hear it hitting the trees. I need sleep bc I will have to wfh tomorrow and attorneys do not take snow days. So I hope to be surprised in the morning. 
It's snowing, albeit tiny flakes, in Magnolia!
Getting ready with the bourbon.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Let's get those photos. Even an inch around here is a big deal. Live it and love it, folks. It is not what we had hoped for, but it's more than normal.
All snow now. Coming down and I can no longer hear sleet. Temp 34 DP 22 on my Vantage Vue.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
biggerbyte lol i can promise you there are going to be folks in se texas that see way more than that
Question for the forum is it necessary to let a faucet drip tonight.