January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:49 pm My son’s private school facility called me earlier to say that they got “new information” and will be staying open tomorrow. Did I miss something? I told her no we won’t be venturing out on to the roadways.
Not sure where you are, but this is the latest information
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JDsGN
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Maybe the HRRR ends up being right but i don't have much faith in it. I can count numerous recent rain events where it showed "most of the heavy rain north of I-10 or east of 45 or along the coast etc and it ended up being the opposite. At this point its time to now cast and trust the meteorologist interpretations of the models based on actual conditions.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Onset of precip moved up 3-4 hours for most. That will be more accumulating precip.
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sswinney
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:54 pm
sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:49 pm My son’s private school facility called me earlier to say that they got “new information” and will be staying open tomorrow. Did I miss something? I told her no we won’t be venturing out on to the roadways.
Not sure where you are, but this is the latest information
League City

They’re in Pearland
Been here for years since Katrina.
Brazoriatx979
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:57 pm Onset of precip moved up 3-4 hours for most. That will be more accumulating precip.
for who?
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DoctorMu
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Some sleet on the radar near Goliad. It's on its way.
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tireman4
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sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:58 pm
tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:54 pm
sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:49 pm My son’s private school facility called me earlier to say that they got “new information” and will be staying open tomorrow. Did I miss something? I told her no we won’t be venturing out on to the roadways.
Not sure where you are, but this is the latest information
League City

They’re in Pearland

I would, if I were you, let them know that the forecast has not changed. Give them the website address to the HGX NWS if they gave questions.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:00 pm Some sleet on the radar near Goliad. It's on its way.
Less than 80 miles from me
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DoctorMu
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sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:58 pm
tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:54 pm
sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:49 pm My son’s private school facility called me earlier to say that they got “new information” and will be staying open tomorrow. Did I miss something? I told her no we won’t be venturing out on to the roadways.
Not sure where you are, but this is the latest information
League City

They’re in Pearland
Pearland and League City are going to see bands of sleet and then snow. Good luck driving on that mess.
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:30 pm HRRR continues to suppress QPF/snow totals along the coast
Yep. And since this is the 18z run, it already accounts for the variables people mentioned (e.g. how the earlier cloud cover is suppressing high temps today).

Pair that with the system moving away faster, and we might very well get blanked. Even if higher totals verify, faster storm system movement leads to more afternoon clearing (and resultant melting).
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:53 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:40 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:38 pm

This is turning into a huge bust.
It’s way off on just about everything else right now compared to initialization

You’re the worst in these situations, LOL, stop whining, you’re in Georgetown now .

Peace out then.
No one is asking you to leave, just don’t be a whiny negative poster when one model isn’t showing what we or you want.

It’s HRRR vs everyone else right now. Other short range models are trending back better.
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Stratton20
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the hrrr has about as high of a chance of verifying as i do getting struck by lightning lol.
In all seriousness we cant give that much weight to it given its already busted on temperatures
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tireman4
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Guys, remember we are on the same page. We are about to transition to now casting. Let's watch as the precipitation as it moves into the CWA.
Tx2005
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I keep hearing that things are moving faster. Will it still be safe to drive in Houston around 6-7 pm?
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I see we are getting into disrespectful behavior again.

It's weather, folks.
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DoctorMu
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The time for model tea leaf reading is over.
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Stratton20
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It does look like their is already more moisture a little more north than even what the hrrr depicts , at least looking on radar it looks that way
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:06 pm Guys, remember we are on the sane page. We are about to transition to now casting. Let's watch as the precipitation as it moves into.thd CWA.
Indeed. We'll have to see whatever last minute tricks/quirks/details/etc can happen in comparison to the overall precip trends from recent (at time of comment) guidance.

Even a mere dusting would be a nice event for many here, especially taking climo to account.
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sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:58 pm
tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:54 pm
sswinney wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 1:49 pm My son’s private school facility called me earlier to say that they got “new information” and will be staying open tomorrow. Did I miss something? I told her no we won’t be venturing out on to the roadways.
Not sure where you are, but this is the latest information
League City

They’re in Pearland
Your son's school decision was made by an idiot.
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snowman65
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This waiting is worse than waiting for that dang giraffe to be born years ago... come on, already!!
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