November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Nearing bedtime. I suspect the 'night crew' will be active...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738...

VALID 020319Z - 020445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 738
CONTINUES.

THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 738 IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
WW AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW REGIME...AND AN
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO ADVANCE INTO/
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...AS INSTABILITY
ONLY SLOWLY WANES.

..KERR.. 11/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/02/10 0248Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0230Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...W LOUISIANA...E CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TRAINING CELLS CENTERED ON SABINE COUNTY TX...SLOW MOVING CELLS
SAN JACINTO INTO LIBERTY COUNTY...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE INTERACTION FROM WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL TX THAT HAS
BEEN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ACTING ON WEST EDGE OF DEEP GULGF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCAL HVY RAINS ALONG BOUNDARY SET UP
SAN JACINTO/N MONTGOMERY COUNTY TO SABINE COUNTY/N NEWTON TX.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0530Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...TRAINING CELLS S SABINE COUNTY/EXT N NEWTON COUNTY SLOWING
MOVING INTO W CENTRAL LA COUNTIES...BUT TRAINING COULD CONTINUE ANOTHER
HR OR SO THRU 0330Z WITH RAIN RATES TO 1.5"/HR AND SOME LOCALIZED FF.
SHORT WAVES ALSO ACTING ON THE MONTGOMERY INTO LIBERTY COUNTY AREA BUT NOT
AS FOCUSED SO MAX RAIN RATES NOT AS HIGH AS TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGHLY ISOLATED HVY RAIN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1109 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* AT 1108 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIFF...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF CASTROVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HELOTES...SEA WORLD...LEON
VALLEY AND LACKLAND AFB.

[Mr. T]

The severe threat is probably over, but thanks to the slow movement of these storms, much needed heavy downpours are currently being felt across the area. There are more storms firing up to the west of College Station, so they should see some rain soon as well. Maybe some of that activity will keep our rain chances going through sunrise.

[biggerbyte]

What a welcome change. Montgomery County did not get severe weather with frontal passage. All of that activity earlier on pretty much removed that possibility. Folks who have passage of the front already should just see rain now as the night wares down.

[ticka1]

Here in baytown and mont beliveu we are getting hit with constantly lightning and thunder for the last 30-45 mins. Radar is lite-up with storms all the way back toward Katy. Going to be a long night. Its been a long time since we had storm like this all night long.

Anyone else awake?

[txflagwaver]

Awake here too...have not been awakened by a thunderstorn it a long time....not real bad here...lots of steady rain tho...

[ticka1]

Looks like the worst has moved east unless this redevelops over us.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the area had some very beneficial rain over night. Perhaps some more showers with the Upper Low currently dropping SSE from Central TX...

[Ptarmigan]

Quite a storm last night. Nice to see some rain for a change.

[svrwx0503]

Definitely some very beneficial rains across the region this morning. A good bit of Harris county got 1-3'' of rain with the higher totals across the southern and southeastern sections of the county. Only picked up a little more than a half inch at the house compared to 3.21'' of rain here at work near I-45 and the south Beltway. Interestingly enough, all of the severe weather stayed off to the northeast of the region with no severe reports received this morning.

Much cooler day today with temperatures across our northern zones in the mid to upper 50s with 60s across the metro and 70's along the coast. Watching additional showers and isolated t-storms moving south through the Dallas and Waco area which are associated with the main upper low.

[Mr. T]

1.7" in. of rain here for the event. It's been fairly chilly today with an overcast sky, a breezy north wind, and temps stuck in the low 60s.

You can already see some rain heading this way on the backside of the upper low as it digs down into our area overnight. Tomorrow looks wet again, and with clouds, rain, and CAA, I doubt we see 60 degrees. Funny how some forecasts had us reaching the 70s today, whatever the hell that was about...

[srainhoutx]

Image an Upper Low like this behind an Arctic Front in a couple of months. Appears some elevated storms are very possible tonight so don't be surprised if we have a few rumbles of thunder.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 022013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW PRECIP
BEING LARGELY CONFINED ON THE WRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
(WHICH IS CURRENTLY THE CASE) OVERNIGHT BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE IT CONTRACT FURTHER INWARD. STILL GOING WITH FAIRLY GOOD
POPS WHICH SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT/MODERATE
RAIN...BUT ALSO ADDED ISO THUNDER WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING VERY MUCH ON
WED. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE ITS SWD TRACK INTO
THE NW GULF WED...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WED
NIGHT. THURS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
COMPLIMENTS OF RIDGING TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE FLATTENS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND AN ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATE SAT OR SUN. BROAD
TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS STILL NOT EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TIMING/SPEED OF ITS EWD MOVEMENT. 47

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHTS FRONT. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THIS EVEN-
ING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW GETS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THESE FLAGS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.
IN FACT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED BY WEDS
NIGHT THROUGH THURS MORNING SHOULD THE FCST PAN OUT. WILL FRESHEN
UP THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT SHORTLY. OTHERWISE WE
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIDE LEVELS IN/NEAR THE BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERWAYS SHOULD LEVELS DROP AS EXPECTED. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  58  50  69  41 /  70  50  30   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  61  54  69  44 /  50  60  60   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  64  57  69  51 /  40  70  70   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

Sounds like we might see some thunderstorms tonight. Going to be interesting.

[srainhoutx]

Impressive Upper Low tonight across the region. While radar suggests a diminish in returns, tomorrow may well see an increase in shower activity...

[Paul]

very impressive Steve and well defined as Ed pointed out. Showers already making their way across WHarris into DT attm...Got about 2 inches here in Pearland last night with an impressive light show and loud thunder.

[srainhoutx]

Water Vapor Imagery suggests the Upper Low is located right over SE TX is morning. Winds should ramp up later this morning and approach speeds of 30 mph.

[wxman57]

I want my nice, warm, sunny drought back!

[TexasMetBlake]

I want my nice, warm, sunny drought back!

Oh wxman, if you were running for office, I would have definitely voted you out of office last night! LOL jk (kinda)

[kayci]

Ok, I don't care WHAT the weather does down hear by the coast this weekend because I'm headed to Texas Motor Speeday for the race @ DFW area, so it better NOT rain up there this weekend.