January 2025
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Prospects for nasty weather are increasing again. Back and forth we go. A Winter Storm looks to cross right over S.E. Texas dropping 6" min. of Snow. As always, folks.. For now.. grain of salt.
Evening model runs: We hope you have a sled!biggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 3:22 pm Prospects for nasty weather are increasing again. Back and forth we go. A Winter Storm looks to cross right over S.E. Texas dropping 6" min. of Snow. As always, folks.. For now.. grain of salt.
Morning model runs: Here, come kick this football Charlie Brown!
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I said earlier this week I’d feel a lot more confident on Thursday.
Well, here we are and I’m not that much more confident although I do believe we will see something.
NWS disco out of ATX is right. If you are a forecaster, you’re splitting the CMC/Icon and GFS with the 12z Euro.
Well, here we are and I’m not that much more confident although I do believe we will see something.
NWS disco out of ATX is right. If you are a forecaster, you’re splitting the CMC/Icon and GFS with the 12z Euro.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
My late afternoon take, before I have to get my run in and teach tonight, is it will get cold. How cold? Well, obviously it will be below our normal standards for mid-January. Temperature wise, still up in the air. Models are notorious for underplaying dense cold air. Second, I am still thinking there will be precipitation in place by the time the cold air is firmly here. I know there will be a secondary reinforcement early next week. Models are going to flip flop all the way to Sunday if not late Sunday. I agree with Wxman 57, the models just do not have a firm handle on any of this. I still think the trend is the friend.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
532
FXUS64 KHGX 162149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
High temperatures have slightly overperformed forecast guidance
today, with a few locations even breaking above the 65 degree mark
as of the 2 PM CDT observations. A continuation of this warming
trend is expected into tomorrow as the eastward shift of surface
high pressure in place over the area shifts to the east, bringing
about a return of onshore flow overnight. Increases in
temperatures and moisture may be enough to drive the development
of patchy fog overnight, depending on small fluctuations in wind
speed and temperature. Dense fog, however, does not appear to be
on the cards. Increases in cloud cover and a return of WAA will
raise lows slightly, with most locations in the 40s and the coast
close to 50.
Warmer and more humid conditions will prevail tomorrow as the
onshore flow regime continues. Look for daytime highs in the upper
60s to near 70, with dew point values steadily rising into the
60s ahead of our next surface cold front. Overnight lows, thanks
in large part to the increase in cloud cover and persistent WAA,
will sit in the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, we continue to
monitor the progression of a surface cold frontal boundary that
looks to push into the area during the overnight hours or early
hours of Saturday. A faster frontal boundary may result in lows in
the 40s extending slightly further to the south, perhaps into the
Houston metro area. There remains a slight chance of showers
along and ahead of the advancing front, but most rain should
remain offshore.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Tranquil conditions with sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected Saturday as cooler dry air filters across Southeast TX in
the wake of the cold front. The day will be somewhat breezy with
northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts on occasion.
High temperatures on Saturday are expected to range in the upper
50s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the
low 60s elsewhere. We will likely see a more drastic temperature
drop Saturday night into Sunday morning as CAA increases over the
region and drops temperatures into the upper 20s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region early Sunday morning. For those
south of this area, temperatures would be closer to the low to
mid 30s range.
A robust upper level trough is expected to hover over the Southern
Plains on Sunday, but we would be too dry for any rain to occur.
Sunny skies will help warm up the day a bit, although high
temperatures peak in the low to mid 40s north of I-10 and the mid
to upper 40s along and south of I-10. Unfortunately, reinforcing
cold air (drier too) is expected to push into Southeast TX later
on Sunday as surface high pressure builds to our north and this
will bring low temperatures to below freezing for most of
Southeast TX by early Monday morning. We are looking at lows in
the low to mid 20s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region,
the upper to low 30s for the rest of the inland portions, and the
mid to upper 30s over the Barrier Islands. Brrrrrrr.
On Monday, the surface high pressure will track east northeast and
we may begin to see some moisture returning to the area starting
from the southwest. We could start seeing some showers pop up over
Matagorda Bay Monday morning and are expected to expand inland
during the day. We may see highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for
many locations. There is the potential for some light winter
precipitation later on Monday, but will depend on where the
precipitation falls and how cold it is at the time.
For Monday night into Tuesday morning, another upper level trough
is expected to move into the Southern Plains and this will
provide additional lift across Southeast TX. We can expect rain
chances to increase, which will also increase the potential for
wintry precipitation for much of the region. The overnight hours
will be very cold with lows in the low to mid 20s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the upper 20s to low 30s
elsewhere. Wintry precipitation may continue throughout the day
Tuesday as the trough axis approaches Southeast TX. Please be
aware that icing can occur on roads and bridges. Thus, proceed
with caution during your commute, and if icy roads are being
reported, avoid travel if possible. Now, there are still some
inconsistencies with model guidance, thus, this forecast can have
a few modifications as we approach the time of the event.
Once the axis moves overhead, sometime Tuesday evening into early
Tuesday night, rain chances decrease as dry air moves in. Expect
conditions to remain cold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
with lows once again in the low 20s to low 30s inland. Looking
into wind chill temperatures, we are currently forecasting wind
chills in the teens to low 20s from the night to mid morning hours
starting Sunday night into Wednesday. Cold Weather Advisories and
Hard Freeze Warning may be needed early next week.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the duration of the
TAF period, with north winds in the 5 to 10 knot range throughout
the course of the afternoon. Expect winds to become light and
variable overnight before shifting to the south and increasing
into tomorrow morning. Cigs should develop above MVFR levels with
the return of onshore winds. A brief window of fog is possible
late tonight and into tomorrow morning with the return of low-
level moisture, but chances remain marginal enough as to not
include in the current TAF package for now. Increasing clouds and
persistent south winds remain in the forecast tomorrow, with rain
chances picking up tomorrow night beyond the current TAF period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Onshore flow briefly returns Friday, turning southwesterly ahead
of the next cold front. Areas of patchy fog is possible over the
bays and nearshore waters Friday evening into Saturday morning.
The front is progged to push off the coast sometime Saturday
morning. Strong north to northeast winds and elevated seas will
develop in the wake of the front Sunday into Monday as reinforcing
cold air pushes across the region. This cold air will result in
even colder temperatures Sunday night into Tuesday, with lows
potentially in the 30s over the bays and nearshore waters during
the early morning hours Monday into Wednesday.
Winds are expected to remain strong early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to high pressure building over
northern TX and a coastal low developing over the western Gulf. Wind
gusts to Gale strength and seas of up to 12 feet are possible.
The coastal low could bring in a surge in moisture, which may bring
in some wintry precipitation for some coastal areas. Confidence
is still low at the moment as there is some uncertainty in the
model guidance. However, there is a nonzero chance for wintry
precipitation for portions of SE TX from Monday evening through
Tuesday evening.
Caution Flags and Advisories are expected Saturday into early next
week. Low water levels are possible Sunday into early next week
in response to the persistent offshore winds.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 40 67 44 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 63 41 68 53 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 58 51 64 56 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cotto (24)
FXUS64 KHGX 162149
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
High temperatures have slightly overperformed forecast guidance
today, with a few locations even breaking above the 65 degree mark
as of the 2 PM CDT observations. A continuation of this warming
trend is expected into tomorrow as the eastward shift of surface
high pressure in place over the area shifts to the east, bringing
about a return of onshore flow overnight. Increases in
temperatures and moisture may be enough to drive the development
of patchy fog overnight, depending on small fluctuations in wind
speed and temperature. Dense fog, however, does not appear to be
on the cards. Increases in cloud cover and a return of WAA will
raise lows slightly, with most locations in the 40s and the coast
close to 50.
Warmer and more humid conditions will prevail tomorrow as the
onshore flow regime continues. Look for daytime highs in the upper
60s to near 70, with dew point values steadily rising into the
60s ahead of our next surface cold front. Overnight lows, thanks
in large part to the increase in cloud cover and persistent WAA,
will sit in the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, we continue to
monitor the progression of a surface cold frontal boundary that
looks to push into the area during the overnight hours or early
hours of Saturday. A faster frontal boundary may result in lows in
the 40s extending slightly further to the south, perhaps into the
Houston metro area. There remains a slight chance of showers
along and ahead of the advancing front, but most rain should
remain offshore.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Tranquil conditions with sunny to partly cloudy skies are
expected Saturday as cooler dry air filters across Southeast TX in
the wake of the cold front. The day will be somewhat breezy with
northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts on occasion.
High temperatures on Saturday are expected to range in the upper
50s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the
low 60s elsewhere. We will likely see a more drastic temperature
drop Saturday night into Sunday morning as CAA increases over the
region and drops temperatures into the upper 20s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region early Sunday morning. For those
south of this area, temperatures would be closer to the low to
mid 30s range.
A robust upper level trough is expected to hover over the Southern
Plains on Sunday, but we would be too dry for any rain to occur.
Sunny skies will help warm up the day a bit, although high
temperatures peak in the low to mid 40s north of I-10 and the mid
to upper 40s along and south of I-10. Unfortunately, reinforcing
cold air (drier too) is expected to push into Southeast TX later
on Sunday as surface high pressure builds to our north and this
will bring low temperatures to below freezing for most of
Southeast TX by early Monday morning. We are looking at lows in
the low to mid 20s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region,
the upper to low 30s for the rest of the inland portions, and the
mid to upper 30s over the Barrier Islands. Brrrrrrr.
On Monday, the surface high pressure will track east northeast and
we may begin to see some moisture returning to the area starting
from the southwest. We could start seeing some showers pop up over
Matagorda Bay Monday morning and are expected to expand inland
during the day. We may see highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for
many locations. There is the potential for some light winter
precipitation later on Monday, but will depend on where the
precipitation falls and how cold it is at the time.
For Monday night into Tuesday morning, another upper level trough
is expected to move into the Southern Plains and this will
provide additional lift across Southeast TX. We can expect rain
chances to increase, which will also increase the potential for
wintry precipitation for much of the region. The overnight hours
will be very cold with lows in the low to mid 20s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the upper 20s to low 30s
elsewhere. Wintry precipitation may continue throughout the day
Tuesday as the trough axis approaches Southeast TX. Please be
aware that icing can occur on roads and bridges. Thus, proceed
with caution during your commute, and if icy roads are being
reported, avoid travel if possible. Now, there are still some
inconsistencies with model guidance, thus, this forecast can have
a few modifications as we approach the time of the event.
Once the axis moves overhead, sometime Tuesday evening into early
Tuesday night, rain chances decrease as dry air moves in. Expect
conditions to remain cold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
with lows once again in the low 20s to low 30s inland. Looking
into wind chill temperatures, we are currently forecasting wind
chills in the teens to low 20s from the night to mid morning hours
starting Sunday night into Wednesday. Cold Weather Advisories and
Hard Freeze Warning may be needed early next week.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the duration of the
TAF period, with north winds in the 5 to 10 knot range throughout
the course of the afternoon. Expect winds to become light and
variable overnight before shifting to the south and increasing
into tomorrow morning. Cigs should develop above MVFR levels with
the return of onshore winds. A brief window of fog is possible
late tonight and into tomorrow morning with the return of low-
level moisture, but chances remain marginal enough as to not
include in the current TAF package for now. Increasing clouds and
persistent south winds remain in the forecast tomorrow, with rain
chances picking up tomorrow night beyond the current TAF period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Onshore flow briefly returns Friday, turning southwesterly ahead
of the next cold front. Areas of patchy fog is possible over the
bays and nearshore waters Friday evening into Saturday morning.
The front is progged to push off the coast sometime Saturday
morning. Strong north to northeast winds and elevated seas will
develop in the wake of the front Sunday into Monday as reinforcing
cold air pushes across the region. This cold air will result in
even colder temperatures Sunday night into Tuesday, with lows
potentially in the 30s over the bays and nearshore waters during
the early morning hours Monday into Wednesday.
Winds are expected to remain strong early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to high pressure building over
northern TX and a coastal low developing over the western Gulf. Wind
gusts to Gale strength and seas of up to 12 feet are possible.
The coastal low could bring in a surge in moisture, which may bring
in some wintry precipitation for some coastal areas. Confidence
is still low at the moment as there is some uncertainty in the
model guidance. However, there is a nonzero chance for wintry
precipitation for portions of SE TX from Monday evening through
Tuesday evening.
Caution Flags and Advisories are expected Saturday into early next
week. Low water levels are possible Sunday into early next week
in response to the persistent offshore winds.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 40 67 44 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 63 41 68 53 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 58 51 64 56 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Cotto (24)
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Winter Weather Update from HGX
For Monday night into Tuesday morning, another upper level trough
is expected to move into the Southern Plains and this will
provide additional lift across Southeast TX. We can expect rain
chances to increase, which will also increase the potential for
wintry precipitation for much of the region. The overnight hours
will be very cold with lows in the low to mid 20s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the upper 20s to low 30s
elsewhere. Wintry precipitation may continue throughout the day
Tuesday as the trough axis approaches Southeast TX. Please be
aware that icing can occur on roads and bridges. Thus, proceed
with caution during your commute, and if icy roads are being
reported, avoid travel if possible. Now, there are still some
inconsistencies with model guidance, thus, this forecast can have
a few modifications as we approach the time of the event.
Once the axis moves overhead, sometime Tuesday evening into early
Tuesday night, rain chances decrease as dry air moves in. Expect
conditions to remain cold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
with lows once again in the low 20s to low 30s inland. Looking
into wind chill temperatures, we are currently forecasting wind
chills in the teens to low 20s from the night to mid morning hours
starting Sunday night into Wednesday. Cold Weather Advisories and
Hard Freeze Warning may be needed early next week.
For Monday night into Tuesday morning, another upper level trough
is expected to move into the Southern Plains and this will
provide additional lift across Southeast TX. We can expect rain
chances to increase, which will also increase the potential for
wintry precipitation for much of the region. The overnight hours
will be very cold with lows in the low to mid 20s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the upper 20s to low 30s
elsewhere. Wintry precipitation may continue throughout the day
Tuesday as the trough axis approaches Southeast TX. Please be
aware that icing can occur on roads and bridges. Thus, proceed
with caution during your commute, and if icy roads are being
reported, avoid travel if possible. Now, there are still some
inconsistencies with model guidance, thus, this forecast can have
a few modifications as we approach the time of the event.
Once the axis moves overhead, sometime Tuesday evening into early
Tuesday night, rain chances decrease as dry air moves in. Expect
conditions to remain cold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
with lows once again in the low 20s to low 30s inland. Looking
into wind chill temperatures, we are currently forecasting wind
chills in the teens to low 20s from the night to mid morning hours
starting Sunday night into Wednesday. Cold Weather Advisories and
Hard Freeze Warning may be needed early next week.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z GFS completely caved to the euro/ CMC, big se texas snow/ sleet storm
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
Yup!
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Forecast for Cypress.
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-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z GFS
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I’ll take that 8 inches!
Congrats to East end of G Town on being the winner on that run, LOL.
Congrats to East end of G Town on being the winner on that run, LOL.
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Good luck with your wintry weather Gang! Today marks 12 days I've had snow on the ground. It's the longest stretch with snow on the ground since moving to the Smoky Mountains!
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
close... really close..
close... really close..
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1008
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
mcheer23 was shocked this morning at the models overnight and I am currently shocked by today's reflip in the same day!
Finally its our turn. Hopefully all snow and no freezing rains. Triangle will probably shutdown just out of pure joy. Snow day off for school kids. Lol
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I’m not, this really boils down to whether this thing amplifies and grabs moisture or not.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 4:39 pm mcheer23 was shocked this morning at the models overnight and I am currently shocked by today's reflip in the same day!
This will be a now cast on how far it can dig. We see potential booms and busts here and there and everything in between.
I could see us flip a little more before we get a decent signal of light precip or heavy.
I’m not really worried about Temps.
Team #NeverSummer
Guys and gals……
Get ready. Let’s hope ERCOT and the power grid is, too.
Get ready. Let’s hope ERCOT and the power grid is, too.
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