November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[svrwx0503]

Wind shift line showing up nicely on KGRK radar this afternoon.

[svrwx0503]

Taking a look at some RUC model soundings just north of the CLL area. It looks like there might still be somewhat of a cap around 800mb. Also, moisture seems to be lacking a bit as well. Moisture levels increase substantially and we remained un-capped down here in southeast Texas...therefore we might not see storms really start to develop until the front starts to nudge its way into our northwestern counties later this evening.

[wxman666]

I can see some convection starting to fire over the northern counties. It is looking pretty threatening here in Cypress right now. Think we'll see an MCD from the SPC soon guys?

[wxman666]

Right on the money, lol! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2031.html

[srainhoutx]

Right on the money, lol! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2031.html

Getting some thunder now in NW Harris County...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012324Z - 020100Z

IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED. BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

THE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING REMAINS
A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNDERWAY NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THE AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN /AS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY SO FAR...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND PERHAPS RADIATIONAL COOLING ATOP THE DEEP
SURFACE BASED MOIST LAYER...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING BETWEEN NOW AND
02-03Z.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEAK...STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 11/01/2010


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

[svrwx0503]

It looks like my hunch that convection won't really start developing until the boundary starts to move into our northwester counties is correct. As the SPC hinted at in their MCD, areas across the hill county and central Texas remained capped just enough to inhibit the widespread convective development which was expected by this time earlier today. As was mentioned, stronger mid-level forcing is starting to move in from the northwest which could help kick things off over the next couple of hours.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

TXZ178-179-199-020045-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
645 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLDSPRING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...LAKE
LIVINGSTON...LIVINGSTON...GOODRICH AND COLDSPRING.

[svrwx0503]

Right now a strong storm is located half way between Bellville and Sealy just east of SH36 moving ENE. Radar currently indicating 1.21'' hail possible with this storm. Another strong storm is currently located across northeast Montgomery and southwest San Jacinto counties.

[wxman666]

Power syruggling to stay on in Cypress.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/01/10 2228Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MOD/HEAVY RAIN IN DEEP MOISTURE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT HAS SHOWN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER LA /MS WITH PWATS RUNNING 1.7-1.8". THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY RUNNING 175-200% OF NORMAL SUGGESTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BROADER
PICTURE SHOWS A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH A POTENT
SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR DIVING SE INVOF OF TX PANHANDLE. FURTHER
INTENSIFYING THE DIFFLUENCE IS A 70 KNOT JET MAXIMA SEEN IN EXPERIMENTAL
SATELLITE WIND PRODUCT OVER E TX NE THROUGH SE AR. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCEMENT ALONG SW LA COAST ENE THOUGH SW MS. AT THIS TIME BEST
ENHANCEMENT IS CENTERED AROUND IBERIA COUNTY WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING
TO -64C. MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE TECHNIQUE SUGGEST RATES ARE RUNNING
.9"/30 MIN IN THE DEEPEST CORES. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES SHOW A
GENERAL 1-2" AMOUNTS FROM CAMERON COUNTY ENE THOUGH IBERVILLE COUNTY.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-130Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...DO NOT EXPECT EXCEEDANCE OF 3 HOUR FFG AS FFG IS RUNNING
ABOVE 3.0" BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WITH BEST RATES FROM VERMILION COUNTY ENE THROUGH LIVINGSTON COUNTY WITH
1-2"/HR RATES POSSIBLE IN DEEPEST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[Andrew]

Training could be a concern:




Also check out Matt's page here:

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=417

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

TXZ211-212-020100-
AUSTIN-WALLER-
658 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MONAVILLE AND PINE
ISLAND.

[Andrew]

Watch out Waller:

[Mr. T]

Warned now...
717 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANORAMA VILLAGE TO 19 MILES EAST OF WILLIS. THE LINE
WAS BUILDING SLOWLY WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO LAKE CONROE DAM...DOBBIN...MONTGOMERY AND COLDSPRING..

[svrwx0503]

The storm in east central Austin county is showing some signs of some weak rotation at this time. While tornadoes are not expected to be the main severe weather threat this evening, still be on the lookout for a possible spin up especially along any of the boundaries left over from earlier convection. Going to be watching this storm carefully for signs that the the broad rotation might start to tighten up. Also, thunderstorms this evening that can develop a rotating updraft will be the ones most likely to produce severe hail.

[Mr. T]

Those storms in northern Montgomery county are not moving much... Radar indicates 3" - 4" of rain has fallen so far for those areas

[svrwx0503]

Those storms in northern Montgomery county are not moving much... Radar indicates 3" - 4" of rain has fallen so far for those areas

And it doesn't look like they are in any big hurry to move out of that region anytime soon as radar indicating the storms are back building southwest across the central parts of the county.

[Mr. T]

New meso is out:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2032.html

A watch is likely for areas just to our west

[svrwx0503]

SPC conferencing with NWS Houston and is about to issue a severe thunderstorm watch which will be in effect until 3am.

[Andrew]

Those storms in northern Montgomery county are not moving much... Radar indicates 3" - 4" of rain has fallen so far for those areas

And it doesn't look like they are in any big hurry to move out of that region anytime soon as radar indicating the storms are back building southwest across the central parts of the county.

Rotation around Waller keeps popping up. IF there are any tornadoes they should be brief and weak. That is if there are any at all.