January 2025

[biggerbyte]

Ice will not be cute pleasantries. My point is it's looking like all of the area is at higher risk for that than anything else. The original thought was snow north with ice south. I can't get to my chemo appointments driving on ice.

I've seen many people come and go over the many years I've been a member of this forum. People forget its open conversation about weather. Being rude has no place .

[Cpv17]

No big deal that one run of an operational lost it. Probably still there on its ensemble anyway.

[Cpv17]

I think we’ll know a lot more by Friday’s 12z suite. I’m also interested towards late next week and beyond.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 just as you said, the GEFS 18z puts that operational run to rest, but yeah next friday is starting to look interesting as well

[biggerbyte]

I'm sure it was just one run. I did say things will change. People speak in the moment. That is what we do here.

[biggerbyte]

57 has been professional for years. He doesn't always get it right. No one does. He knows more about this field than all of us put together. He's hired to give an extended forecast to the people he works for. Unfortunately, anything beyond three days is suspect. Still, we talk about it all every day. It's time to remember that and chill up in here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm sure it was just one run. I did say things will change. People speak in the moment. That is what we do here.

The Operational GFS is on its own island when looking at the GEFS.

Its 500mb setup isn’t close to being right, so I tend to toss both.

Euro/CMC blend. There’s where your eyes should be and the NWS is telling you as much in their discos.

[snowman65]

Sometimes I wonder if the GFS came from TEMU lol

[biggerbyte]

I'm sure it was just one run. I did say things will change. People speak in the moment. That is what we do here.

The Operational GFS is on its own island when looking at the GEFS.

Its 500mb setup isn’t close to being right, so I tend to toss both.

Euro/CMC blend. There’s where your eyes should be and the NWS is telling you as much in their discos.

Yes. Unfortunately, I had not read the disco at that time. Their Forcasts are bouncing. Temps had gone up with a mention of freezing rain. The GFS was not the only member losing the snow, by the way

Anyway...

[jasons2k]

I'm sure it was just one run. I did say things will change. People speak in the moment. That is what we do here.

The Operational GFS is on its own island when looking at the GEFS.

Its 500mb setup isn’t close to being right, so I tend to toss both.

Euro/CMC blend. There’s where your eyes should be and the NWS is telling you as much in their discos.

Wise take. The models are just a tool. Some are better than others for certain tasks.

[Stratton20]

18z Euro says the GFS is full of crap lol, big messy ice storm down here, but interesting to see the baja low phases on the euro and moves east, im wondering if we could possibly see several rounds of wintry precipitation instead of just one

[Cpv17]

Picked up an inch of rain today. Sure the heck wasn’t expecting that much. Definitely overperformed down here.

[txsnowmaker]

NWS still shows 50% chance of snow showers from Monday night through Tuesday night for city of Houston. I see no reason for concern if you want snow.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... -95.487445

[Cpv17]

18z Euro says the GFS is full of crap lol, big messy ice storm down here, but interesting to see the baja low phases on the euro and moves east, im wondering if we could possibly see several rounds of wintry precipitation instead of just one

Really hoping this warm nose goes away. Ice is beautiful and all, but boy the amount of work it could create is a big no bueno.

[Cpv17]

NWS still shows 50% chance of snow showers from Monday night through Tuesday night for city of Houston. I see no reason for concern if you want snow.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... -95.487445

I’ll gladly take a mixture of sleet and snow!

[biggerbyte]

NWS still shows 50% chance of snow showers from Monday night through Tuesday night for city of Houston. I see no reason for concern if you want snow.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... -95.487445

My forecast includes freezing rain. That is the concern.

[biggerbyte]

18z Euro says the GFS is full of crap lol, big messy ice storm down here, but interesting to see the baja low phases on the euro and moves east, im wondering if we could possibly see several rounds of wintry precipitation instead of just one

Really hoping this warm nose goes away. Ice is beautiful and all, but boy the amount of work it could create is a big no bueno.

Amen..People around here can't drive on it. I wouldn't dare get out in my car. Having lived in Dallas for ten years there is a big difference.

[Brazoriatx979]

Everything south of I-10 pretty much includes rain showers,snow showers,and freezing rain

[Cpv17]

18z Euro says the GFS is full of crap lol, big messy ice storm down here, but interesting to see the baja low phases on the euro and moves east, im wondering if we could possibly see several rounds of wintry precipitation instead of just one

Really hoping this warm nose goes away. Ice is beautiful and all, but boy the amount of work it could create is a big no bueno.

Amen..People around here can't drive on it. I wouldn't dare get out in my car. Having lived in Dallas for ten years there is a big difference.

Let’s hope that the column will trend colder.

[DoctorMu]

I'm sure it was just one run. I did say things will change. People speak in the moment. That is what we do here.

The Operational GFS is on its own island when looking at the GEFS.

Its 500mb setup isn’t close to being right, so I tend to toss both.

Euro/CMC blend. There’s where your eyes should be and the NWS is telling you as much in their discos.

That was the go to blend for 2021.