January 2025

[walsean1]

Let’s remember 2021 Winter Storm and freeze and how people died because they lost power and was keeping them selves warm by sitting in a car in a closed garage, (Carbon Monoxide poisoning death) or how people were lighting up their BBQ grill in the garage which cause Carbon Monoxide deaths and fires.) while winter precipitation is fun #snow, and most people get to stay home the Ice is not. Let’s keep that in mind.

[tireman4]

Seems like the models have trended a bit warmer since yesterday and have backed off some on snow and mainly showing ice now. That’s my takeaway from today so far.

Remember, we have at least four if not five days until the event. They will flip flop many time since then. The trend is your friend, one way or another.

Trust me, I’m well aware lol just stating what’s happened today with the models so far IMO.

Understood.

[snowman65]

So onto the real business. What is everyone grilling and barbecuing on Saturday before it's too nasty outside to do that for a bit?

Beef ribs and a pork butt!

2 racks of St Louis style ribs and jalepeno poppers

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 honestly looks more like the warm nose than surface temperatures to me, Euro and CMC are plenty cold at the surface , still think even if its a sleet/ ice storm, as the low passes by to the south, i think it will end with a burst of snow in se texas

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Some of us on here called an ice storm a week ago when looking at the pattern.



I do think we will mix with snow but the Euro has the best handle on this by far. You could blend a little with the CMC.

GFS isn’t handling the 500 correctly

[jasons2k]

[christinac2016]

I suppose we can thank Beryl and the other hurricanes for giving us a real winter. I don't mind the frigid cold (and have walked/ran in it ) but the ice is wicked. With two new hips, I must stay away from it so I won't fall. (smh)

[Stratton20]

Im betting the 18z GFS caves in an hour when its out

[Brazoriatx979]

Im betting the 18z GFS caves in an hour when its out

To the euro and shows one hell of a ice storm?

[sambucol]

Any advice on how maneuver on foot on ice without slipping down? Is there anything that can be put on shoes to stay upright and gain traction without bottoming out

[Brazoriatx979]

Any advice on how maneuver on foot on ice without slipping down? Is there anything that can be put on shoes to stay upright and gain traction without bottoming out

I've used heavy grit sand paper before..it works lol

[sambucol]

We have that! Thanks

[tireman4]

Hot off the presses


622
FXUS64 KHGX 152122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Rain will gradually decrease this evening as surface high pressure
builds across TX, the low pressure system (coastal low) over the
Western Gulf of Mexico tracks east to southeast, and cooler drier
air moves in from the north. For the rest of the night into Thursday
morning, skies will gradually scatter out, starting across the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region late tonight. Cooler
temperatures to be expected overnight, with lows ranging between the
low to mid 30s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the
upper 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the
mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast.

Tranquil and warmer conditions are expected on Thursday and Thursday
night as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. Expect
partly cloudy skies during the day, along with light northerly winds
and highs generally in the low 60s. The lows Thursday night will be
warmer, generally in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and in the
upper 40s to lower 50s along the coasts.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Friday will continue the pleasant weather/warming trend from
Thursday with high temps topping out from near 70f across the
coastal counties to the lower 60s in the Piney Woods. However,
after Friday things get a lot more interesting as the leading cold
front is a bit faster than prior forecasts moving off the coast by
early afternoon Saturday. This will usher in cooler air and breezy
north winds for the region, although temperatures will still
rebound some during the day into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Then... the bottom drops out for the rest of the forecast period
as the arctic air begins to surge into southeast TX with a return
to freezing temperatures Sunday morning from roughly a Columbus to
Livingston line and points north. Despite sunny skies, Sunday
will be nearly 15-20 degrees colder than Saturday with brisk north
winds. The cold air will continue to filter in early next week.

Next week still looks like quite a mess, with still some
uncertainty on how cold it will actually get. The NBM has held
fairly consistent with lower to mid 20s f for multiple nights
along and north of I10, and upper 20s to around 30f even along
the immediate coast. Fortunately most locations will see
temperatures rise above freezing for at least a few hours each
afternoon- at least that is what the models are showing for now.
An exception may be the far north from B/CS to Crockett where we
may stay near or below freezing all day on Tuesday. This cycle
looks to stay entrenched into late next week. Multiple cycles of
cold air advisories are also expected as we near the event with
wind chills in the lower 20s f and teens each morning.

The bigger question remains `will we see snow, ice or cold rain?`
particularly late Monday night through the day Tuesday. Models
remain persistent in bringing at least light precipitation for
much of the day Tuesday, which almost certainly (looking at
forecast temperatures) would fall as light snow or a wintery mix.
It is possible we could transition between primary winter
precipitation at many sites through the day. I wouldn`t try to pin
down the details of all of this just yet- given it remains 6 days
out and the large scale features could evolve quite differently
than currently progged. That being said, it is about a 50/50
forecast across much of the area to see some sort of frozen or
freezing precipitation between late Monday night into Wednesday.
Stay tuned!

Evans

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Rain chances will decrease gradually tonight as the coastal low over
the western Gulf tracks east to southeast and cooler drier air
pushes into SE TX. Moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds
and seas generally between 3 to 6 feet are expected to continue
through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the
nearshore waters through this evening and through early Thursday
morning for the offshore waters. Cautions flags would replace the
Advisories and could be in effect through late morning or early
afternoon.

Onshore flow briefly returns Friday, turning southwesterly Friday
night into Saturday morning, ahead of the next cold front. The front
is forecast to move across Southeast TX on Saturday morning,
possibly pushing off the coast before noon. Strong north to
northeast winds and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the
front Sunday into Monday as reinforcing cold air pushes across the
region. This cold air will result in even colder temperatures Sunday
night into Tuesday, with lows potentially in the 30s over the bays
and nearshore waters during the early morning hours Monday into
Wednesday.

Winds are expected to remain strong early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to high pressure building over
northern TX and a coastal low developing over the western Gulf. Wind
gusts to Gale strength and seas of around 10 feet is possible. The
coastal low could bring in a surge in moisture, which could bring in
some wintry precipitation for some coastal areas. Confidence is
still low right now as there is some uncertainty in the models.

In general, expect Caution Flags and Advisories to continue through
much of the forecast period. Low waters levels are possible Sunday
into early next week in response to the persistent offshore winds.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
this evening as a system of low pressure continues to supply low
level moisture while an upper level trough moves across the
Southern Plains. This may result in periods of MVFR vis/cigs,
mainly for sites south of CXO. Later this afternoon into this
evening, rainfall will ebb from north to south as drier air
filters in from the north. Cloud decks are expected to scatter out
during the overnight hours, with much of the region under clear
skies by sunrise. Expect light N winds tonight into Thu.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 39 62 42 67 / 20 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 46 58 50 64 / 40 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 PM CST this evening
for GMZ330.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[tireman4]

From Jeff Lindner

Imagines below show the National Blend of Models (NBM) for winter precipitation next week
Current chances for 1 inch of snow or more is 20-30% north of I-10.
Current chances for freezing rain are between between 40-50% over much of the area
Winter precipitation May begin as early as Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
It is certainly possible that areas see multiple types of precipitation through the event…so accumulations are uncertain.
Hoping for more snow/sleet than freezing rain (ice) which can cause damage to trees and powerlines. Will see how the temperature profiles trend over the next few days and which precipitation type may be most dominant.

[Brazoriatx979]

From Jeff Lindner

Imagines below show the National Blend of Models (NBM) for winter precipitation next week
Current chances for 1 inch of snow or more is 20-30% north of I-10.
Current chances for freezing rain are between between 40-50% over much of the area
Winter precipitation May begin as early as Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
It is certainly possible that areas see multiple types of precipitation through the event…so accumulations are uncertain.
Hoping for more snow/sleet than freezing rain (ice) which can cause damage to trees and powerlines. Will see how the temperature profiles trend over the next few days and which precipitation type may be most dominant.

I don't buy lake jackson with 0% chance of snow lol

[don]

In before anybody starts to panic that the 18z GFS took the storm away. The GFS is being the GFS... LOL. I would toss this run in the garbage.

[Brazoriatx979]

The GFS is being the GFS... the 18z took the storm away LOL. I would toss this run in the garbage.

It was bound to happen
Always does

[Stratton20]

Its pretty clear the GFS may be completely useless with this setup, its actually embarrassing how bad the model is performing right now

[snowman65]

latest intel...

[Brazoriatx979]

latest intel...

What app is that?