January 2025

[Stratton20]

Ensembles are locked in on that time frame, its not a question if its coming, its a question of how cold, suppression or do we have a system to work with, im very confident this next dump of arctic air will be way colder than the current temperatures we have right now

[tireman4]

06Z GFS

[Cpv17]

Pretty sure your place got more than 2.75 last January.

As a matter of fact, I have the Weimar paper here detailing that Storm for its 2024 month by month rainfall totals.

Ima have to go back to and read the January 24 thread.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5d ... 44880feac0

Interesting. That’s gotta be a record breaker of a storm for January. Crazy I don’t remember that.

[jasons2k]

Got 2.03” of rain, almost exactly what the HPC predicted for once.

[Cpv17]

After going back and reading the January thread from last year, it kinda jogged my memory a bit. I somewhat remember it now.

[tireman4]

GFS 2m Temperature Map

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS 2m Temperature Map

That looks perfect for us. Ready for Barney!

[Cpv17]

GFS 2m Temperature Map

That looks perfect for us. Ready for Barney!

Yes sir! Bring on Barney!

[tireman4]

From Wxman 57 over at S2K

Before everyone gets too excited about a few model runs indicating more snow in 10 days, keep in mind that a week before this event, the Euro was predicting a foot of snow here in Houston. Then it was 12+ inches in D-FW. We got 40 degrees with nearly 2 inches of rain here in Houston. Not even a sleet pellet. Models don't do very well beyond 3-4 days in this pattern. Those of you in north Texas may get another shot at snow, but it looks like more cold rain along the TX and LA coasts.

I miss July...

[Brazoriatx979]

From Wxman 57 over at S2K

Before everyone gets too excited about a few model runs indicating more snow in 10 days, keep in mind that a week before this event, the Euro was predicting a foot of snow here in Houston. Then it was 12+ inches in D-FW. We got 40 degrees with nearly 2 inches of rain here in Houston. Not even a sleet pellet. Models don't do very well beyond 3-4 days in this pattern. Those of you in north Texas may get another shot at snow, but it looks like more cold rain along the TX and LA coasts.

I miss July...

Sadly I do believe we're just going to get rain here again

[Stratton20]

I wuldnt take that comment too seriously, if anything sounds like his private jet is getting ready for take off

[Cpv17]

Geez, it’s 10+ days out. Chill out on predictions. Only thing we know now is that it’s likely to get cold.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 plus its wxman57 lol, i dont really take his comments that seriously all the time, too me that sounds like his private jet is getting set to leave the runway lol

[jasons2k]

Some people just never learn. The GFS long range will bite you every time.

[redneckweather]

From Wxman 57 over at S2K

Before everyone gets too excited about a few model runs indicating more snow in 10 days, keep in mind that a week before this event, the Euro was predicting a foot of snow here in Houston. Then it was 12+ inches in D-FW. We got 40 degrees with nearly 2 inches of rain here in Houston. Not even a sleet pellet. Models don't do very well beyond 3-4 days in this pattern. Those of you in north Texas may get another shot at snow, but it looks like more cold rain along the TX and LA coasts.

I miss July...

99.999% of the time he goes with the warmer bias and most times he is right because WE LIVE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IT RARELY SNOWS HERE. So, that makes him right most times when it comes to winter weather down here. lol That's a pretty easy forecast to make. We will see. One thing I do know, I would not use him as my meteorologist for tropical weather. My gosh, no bueno.

[tireman4]

12Z GEFS Mean

[Cpv17]

Some people just never learn. The GFS long range will bite you every time.

Haha yeah. All we know is that it’s probably gonna get cold again. Way too far out to know anything else.

[Stratton20]

When you starting see barney colors showing up on an ensemble, you know this could be a significant push of cold air

[Cromagnum]

Meh. I'll pay attention when it's within 48 hours, or maybe even 24 hours.

[tireman4]

MVFR prevailing area wide at this time. Expect MVFR CIGs to
continue through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight.
Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from west to east
beginning around 05Z. Winds will be out of the NW at 10-15 kts
this afternoon with gusts to near 25 kts at times. Winds will
relax later this evening to around 10 kts, becoming light and
variable overnight into Saturday morning. For CLL/UTS/CXO, there
is medium confidence on patchy fog early Saturday morning.
Probabilistic guidance shows a low chance of VSBYs dipping below
5 SM. I want to mention that temperatures in these locations are
expected to dip below freezing early Saturday morning and there is
the potential for a short-lived and isolated instance of freezing
fog. Confidence on this occurring is low; however, wanted to
mention for situational awareness.