January 2025

[tireman4]

113
FXUS64 KHGX 022005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
205 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Broken to overcast clouds filled in earlier today as a coastal
trough continues to nudge towards the Upper TX coastline leading to
a gradual increase of rain chances along the coast. Already seeing
quite the coverage of rain showers south of I-10, and these will
likely continue into the overnight hours before tapering off as the
coastal trough departs to the east. The persistent cloud cover
though will help to regulate daytime temperatures in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Light easterly to southeasterly winds will become light
and variable overnight, and with dew point depressions dropping to
near 0F...we`re expecting a round of widespread patchy fog late
tonight into early Friday morning. The main window for patches of
dense fog looks to be between 4am-8am, especially for locations
along and south of I-10. Because of the fog and persistent cloud
cover, temperatures overnight were nudged up a bit to reflect lows
mainly in the 50s.

Ridging aloft moves in Friday allowing for conditions to gradually
become drier and cloud cover to gradually decrease throughout the
day. This also takes us into a warming trend that lasts into the
weekend with highs on Friday in the upper 60s to low 70s. There is a
cold front to discuss as well...but not the one you`re thinking of!
On Friday, a cold front moves into northeast TX, but stalls out to
our north. However, once we go into overnight hours, the front does
look to backdoor into the Piney Woods area. As a result, their
temperatures on Friday night will be in the mid to upper 40s.
Elsewhere, we can expect low temperatures to fall into the low to
mid 50s. Dew points will be on the rise late Friday night as surface
low pressure begins to develop near the TX/OK panhandles. So, expect
moisture to be on an increasing trend as we head into the weekend.

Batiste/Bird

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Certainly the weather gets more interesting in the extended range as
the first arctic cold front of the season moves across the region.
Confidence is increasing for nearly all of southeast TX (away from
the immediate coast) to dip near or below freezing for several (2 or
3) nights. Before we get into the cold, we will have to deal with
thunderstorms, and possibly a few strong to severe storms, ahead of
the front on Sunday. Sunday will be the last mild day for a stretch
with persistent onshore flow and increasing low level WAA
overspreading southeast TX ahead of the front. While shear will
increase through the day, the overall setup looks to be a bit messy
for our region with limited focus ahead of the shallow cold front.
In addition, clouds will limit heating. That being said, forecast
soundings suggest modest instability with fairly strong deep layer
shear, so we can`t rule out a few rotating storms on Sunday
consistent with SPC SLGT on day 4.

The cold front is still expected to surge across southeast TX late
Sunday with strong northerly winds persisting into the new work
week. How cold we get with this is still somewhat uncertain. While
not to the levels of our recent arctic hard freezes the past few
years, it will still be quite cold. Expect a near 30 degree drop
behind the front Monday as compared to the weekend with wind chills
in the 20s and 30s. Hard Freezes are certainly in play across the
north, with overnight lows near or just below freezing over much of
the Houston metro Monday and Tuesday mornings. Tuesday morning looks
to be the coldest of the week. There really isn`t much of a warmup
in the forecast with highs topping out in the 40s to lower 50s
through mid week.

The deterministic run of the GFS is still the most aggressive with
bringing showers, and dare I mention some freezing/frozen
precipitation Wednesday ahead of another fast moving weather system.
This is a bit of an outlier from the other ensemble members, as well
as the ECMWF which keeps this system much farther south. Far too
uncertain to include any mention of this in the forecast, but the
possibility is non-zero for sure- especially across the north.
Global models often underdo the arctic air (speed, depth and
magnitude), so there is still a lot to play out. Thus, we can`t
just completely discount the few models bringing more snow/ice into
the forecast mid week. At this point, we just need to stay tuned!

Evans

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1024 AM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Solid deck of overcast clouds around 5,000 ft have moved over
Southeast Texas this morning as light northeasterly winds prevail.
Expect a gradual decreasing trend in ceilings from north to south
throughout the afternoon/evening hours going from VFR to MVFR and
eventually to IFR area-wide. Patchy fog and low cloud ceilings are
expected overnight and could result in a window of LIFR conditions
especially between 09Z-14Z. Along the coast, some isolated to
scattered rain showers will be possible this afternoon through the
early part of the overnight hours. Have added in VCSH for LBX/GLS
where confidence is greater on rain shower coverage. Ceilings may
take a bit to lift on Friday morning, so lingering IFR/MVFR
ceilings may last into the late morning/early afternoon hours.

Batiste/Bird

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2025

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly winds will
persist going into the weekend with wind speeds periodically
necessitating caution flag criteria. Chances for showers persist
through tonight as a coastal weather system passes by. Winds become
southerly and increase to 20-25 kt over the weekend leading to seas
subsequently build to 6-8 feet. This will require the issuance of
Small Craft Advisories that are likely to continue into early next
week. Sunday will also feature chances for showers and thunderstorms
as a cold front approaches and pushes offshore late Sunday. Moderate
northerly to northeasterly winds will prevail in the wake of this
front which will likely require caution flags and/or advisories into
midweek. Additionally, we will need to monitor the chance for low
water levels across the bays Sunday into midweek, in particular
during times of low tide.

Batiste/Bird

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 51 68 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 55 69 53 70 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 60 66 59 70 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
for GMZ370.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Batiste

[tireman4]

And to focus on this...


The deterministic run of the GFS is still the most aggressive with
bringing showers, and dare I mention some freezing/frozen
precipitation Wednesday ahead of another fast moving weather system.
This is a bit of an outlier from the other ensemble members, as well
as the ECMWF which keeps this system much farther south. Far too
uncertain to include any mention of this in the forecast, but the
possibility is non-zero for sure- especially across the north.
Global models often underdo the arctic air (speed, depth and
magnitude), so there is still a lot to play out. Thus, we can`t
just completely discount the few models bringing more snow/ice into
the forecast mid week. At this point, we just need to stay tuned!

[Cpv17]

Big winter storm across the state on the 18z GFS. Unfortunately it’s too warm for us.

[Stratton20]

Ive seen this story play out so many times with the globals, im betting that frozen precipitation is going to be further south than depicted, ive seen this play out so many times, globals models consistently too warm with surface temperatures, when the NAM is in range, then we will have a more accurate or clearer picture of the surface temperatures

[Stormlover2020]

Artic shallow air on models usually 3-4 degrees to warm

[Brazoriatx979]

Big winter storm across the state on the 18z GFS. Unfortunately it’s too warm for us.

It's ALWAYS that way for us down here

[biggerbyte]

As of right now everything about this 'event" has turned sour. Looking at the big picture without picking a morsal here and there, whata crocka itB.. Now we really should give things until Sunday. None the less, I'm checking it daily.

[Cpv17]

Big winter storm across the state on the 18z GFS. Unfortunately it’s too warm for us.

It's ALWAYS that way for us down here

It’ll change. ICON and CMC both had snow for us.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup, the setup is good, the low stays far enough off shore, its really just the cold air, even a few degrees colder makes a massive difference

[Brazoriatx979]

Brent is a school girl again with that run lol

[Stormlover2020]

lol lol I mean it’s looking good for us right now

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Big winter storm across the state on the 18z GFS. Unfortunately it’s too warm for us.

It's ALWAYS that way for us down here

That’s just not true. We’ve had more winter storms in the Houston Metro area than Dallas over the last 10 years. A lot more

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Cpv17 yup, the setup is good, the low stays far enough off shore, its really just the cold air, even a few degrees colder makes a massive difference

I actually like the 18z GFS the most because you can almost guarantee that those temps are too warm. They always are.

[Stratton20]

The GEFS still looks very good down here

[Stratton20]

MontgomeryCoWx yup, just as long as the coastal low stays far enough off shore, too close and it pulls in milder air

[sswinney]

I’m memory serves me, models are always a few degrees too warm and a few hours too late with big arctic fronts.

[Brazoriatx979]

What is the probability of wet bulbing here? There is almost a possibility of a warm nose here

[Cpv17]

What is the probability of wet bulbing here? There is almost a possibility of a warm nose here

Too early to know.

[Stratton20]

18z Euro caved

[djmike]

Yall know how it’s gonna play out already. It will come down to nowcasting and all of a sudden reports of snow/ice start coming in. We tend to get something when we think we’re not.

Models forecasting snow/ice = we get nada…

Models forecasting nada for us = we get pleasantly surprised.

Happens every year.