December 2024

[Pas_Bon]

I see no real cold weather in the foreseeable future.

Probably the second week of January with the way it looks now. Just have to be patient.

Most cold blasts tend to be in January and February.

But I want my cold blast NOW!!

[Stratton20]

Well the 00z GFS has a really great 500 mb height pattern starting a day before new years eve and really amplifying beyond that , the pattern its showing is what I suspect will be the dominant pattern driving our weather in january which is a - EPO, -PNA, -NAO-AO and + TNH with a - PNA ridge, we just have to be patient, that kind of a pattern is going to take a while to set up

[tireman4]

652
FXUS64 KHGX 171158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Widespread dense fog ongoing this morning with light winds and dew
point depressions of 1 degree or less. Numerous locations across SE
Texas reporting visibilities of less than 1 mile. Use extra caution
when driving this morning by leaving plenty of space between
vehicles and using low-beam headlights. Fog should be out of the
majority of the area around mid-morning, but may linger along the
coast and islands through early afternoon.

Continued WAA will result in warmer than average temperatures today.
Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows for tonight will
feature another round of temperatures in the 60s area wide.
Additionally, another round of fog is on tap tonight through
Wednesday morning with areas of dense fog expected.

Wednesday`s FROPA is set to arrive to the Brazos Valley around the
mid to late morning hours and to the Houston Metro area during the
afternoon hours. It is expected to move offshore by sunset.
Unfortunately, compressional heating ahead of the front will allow
for temperatures to reach into the 70s for much of the area. With
the front passing earlier in the day, Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
will observe slightly cooler temperatures as highs drop into the 60s.
If the FROPA moves through faster than anticipated, temperatures for
tomorrow could be a little cooler than what is currently forecast.
Ahead of and along the front, widely scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Storm chances start out in the NW and move SE through
the day, coming to an end in the evening hours. Lows for Wednesday
night will be about 15-20F than lows for the last few days.
Temperatures will drop into the 40s to near 50 along the coast. Dry
air moving in behind the front, coupled with northerly winds will
help to inhibit fog development.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

In the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, cooler temperatures can be
expected through the end of the week and over the weekend. Highs
on Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s, and a reinforcing cold
front will cause Saturday`s highs to dip into a 50s/60s range.
Lows Friday through Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with freezing
temperatures possible Saturday morning across portions of the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods areas. The start of a gradual warming trend
begins on Sunday and Monday as a more easterly and southeasterly flow
sets up in response to surface high pressure edging off to the east.
After Sunday morning`s lows again in the 30s/40s (30s mostly confined
to the Piney Woods area), Sunday`s highs will edge back into the 60s.
Look for this trend to continue into Sunday night (lows in the 40s/50s)
and Monday (highs in the 60s/70s). With this package, the only rain
in the forecast comes on Monday well out in the Gulf. Some rain chances
finally make their way back inland on Tuesday. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Widespread LIFR conditions this morning due to dense fog and low
clouds. Expecting some improvement to MVFR around 15Z. Improvement
to VFR will be around 18-21Z. IFR/LIFR VSBYs and CIGs return to
the area around 06-09Z Wednesday, and will continue through the
end of the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Light southeast winds will prevail into mid week. Intermittent periods
of dense fog are likely, especially in the bays and nearshore waters,
until the next cold front brings some drier and cooler air into the
region Wednesday afternoon or evening. Moderate northerly to northeasterly
winds prevail behind the front with caution flags expected, then gradually
diminish by Thursday. Look for a reinforcing front to push through around
the end of the week or start of the weekend. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 65 67 40 / 10 10 50 0
Houston (IAH) 78 65 72 47 / 20 0 50 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 63 69 52 / 10 0 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ197-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42

[Cromagnum]

CBS Austin got jokes.

[DoctorMu]

I see no real cold weather in the foreseeable future.

Probably the second week of January with the way it looks now. Just have to be patient.

Most cold blasts tend to be in January and February.

It depends. I've seen many cold blasts near Christmas, then a January thaw. The coldest day of the year around CLL is about January 6.

Tomorrow afternoon's FROPA begins a run of SEASONAL weather through Sunday. TG

Enjoy this week because Christmas looks like 75-80°F.

After 10 inches of rain in July! Nature has been punishing us.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Dreaming of a white “hot” Christmas? Pattern change to put winter on pause for much of the U.S.
By Matt Lanza on December 17, 2024

For meteorologists, winter technically starts at the beginning of December, not at the solstice which is coming up here shortly. But winter weather can happen all throughout fall too, and so far this season there's been a bit of it around the country. We've seen some decent snows at times in the Sierra of California, where the snowpack is running around 100 to 200 percent of normal for the date.


California snowpack is in good shape for this time of year.
The lake effect snow belts have been crushed this year at times. Erie, PA for example is having their second snowiest start to the season since recordkeeping began there in the late 1800s.


Erie, PA is off to their second snowiest start to a winter on record.
Many people think of Buffalo being the lake effect magnet, and it is at times, but the wind direction has definitely favored some of the Pennsylvania and southwest New York snowbelts. Precip is running about 150 to 200 percent of normal over the last 30 days in Erie versus 75 to 100 percent of normal in Buffalo. You can also see a lake effect snow signal off Lake Ontario too toward Watertown and the notorious Tug Hill Plateau.


The lake effect snow belts have seen significant precipitation over the last 30 days, impacting the area between Cleveland and Buffalo and east of Lake Ontario quite significantly. (NOAA)
There's been some cold at times, certainly in the northern Plains and Midwest and Northeast. But also the Intermountain West has been chilly at times. Not their coldest start to a winter by any means, but firmly in the middle of the pack or below average.

And we've got another blast of cold incoming here over the end of the week and parts of the weekend in the eastern two-thirds of the country, including a modest snow event tomorrow through Friday for parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest and Lakes. More mountain snows are likely out West also. But this pattern is going to change in a very big way after the weekend. A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that's expected to shift about two standard deviations from the mean, with even a 20 to 30 percent chance of a 99th percentile event. In other words, the ridge is going to be strong for December. As you might expect, that's likely to lead to abnormal warmth.


The December 26 through 31 temperature forecast is ugly if you like cold and snow.
In fact, it's not just likely to be warm, the confidence level in a warm forecast is about as good as you'll ever see at this lead time.

Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook is the most above normal (reddest) one they have issued (2008-present) for the Lower 48. The average location in the Lower 48 has a 75.9% chance of being above normal, a 19.9% chance of being near normal, and a 4.2% chance of being below normal for the Dec 24-30 period.

— Brian Brettschneider (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T01:56:32.108Z

CPC forecasts are not technically intensity forecasts; they're confidence in above or below normal forecasts. That said, one could probably interpret their map shown by Brian above and the 5 day average for the 26th through 31st above it similarly. Warmer than normal and potentially much warmer than normal.

So what's the deal? Is winter over? No, it's December 17th. Winter is not over. However, we need to see some changes to dislodge this developing pattern next week. It would be very helpful to see the pattern over Alaska change. The animation below shows forecast height anomalies 20,000 feet up over the next 2 weeks or so. Above normal heights will often correlate to colder weather being dislodged from Alaska and northwest Canada and deposited south and east into the continental U.S. Indeed, we see above normal heights in the near-term, followed by a swift transition to deep blue, below normal heights next week. Good news for Alaskans who like cold weather. By the end of the model run we maybe see some changes over Alaska in terms of rising heights. This could help lead to downstream changes over the Lower 48, but whether that happens or not just as we cross into 2025 remains to be seen.


A pattern over Alaska hospitable to Lower 48 cold transitions to one that is decidedly hostile to it next week before some relaxation of the pattern late.
The bottom line: It's more likely to be a warm Christmas than a white one in many places. Next week looks ugly for winter lovers across the Lower 48. There may be some changes by about New Years, but exactly how fast any transition back colder occurs remains very much TBD at this time.

[tireman4]

045
FXUS64 KHGX 172111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

With morning stratus/fog thinned out, conditions have warmed rather
quickly over the last few hours. Temperatures this afternoon should
be in the mid 70s/mid 80s across most of the region. Around the bays
and nearshore waters, temperatures should remain in the mid
60s/lower 70s. A few light showers will be possible throughout the
day, mostly over the Gulf waters, though not frequent or widespread
enough to make a significant mark on temperatures throughout most of
the area.

Onshore flow, light winds, ample moisture in place from WAA and cool
water temperatures across the nearshore waters & bays will, like
last night, provide favorable conditions for widespread fog
overnight into Wednesday morning. SREF probabilities for visibility
under 1 mile are high (>70%) for much of SE Texas. HREF
probabilities are lower, but broadly highlight similar areas for the
development of fog. LAMP guidance and NBM mean visibility add
further confidence to fog developing and becoming dense during this
overnight period. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect
for the southern 2/3 of SE Texas from late tonight through Wednesday
morning. This fog will impact the morning commute for Wednesday, so
motorists should drive cautiously, avoid using high beams and leave
plenty of following distance between vehicles.

Shortly after sunrise, as fog begins to clear, a cold front should
enter the Brazos Valley. This front will push through College
Station around 8-11 AM, the Houston area around 11 AM - 2 PM, then
later off the coast around 2-5 PM. A line of showers/isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, though lacking
instability and upper level forcing should prevent these storms from
becoming strong. Cold & dry air filling in behind the front should
lead to a rather noticeable temperature gradient during the day,
with highs in the mid 60s/mid 70s north of I-10 and upper 70s to the
south. Lows for Thursday morning will be in the upper 30s/40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

When it comes to the long term portion of the forecast, there
is...really not much of anything worth a whole lot of discussion.
By Thursday morning the cold front will be well offshore, so we`ll
be pretty solidly in the colder, drier post-frontal environment.
But...probably not that much colder and drier. If I could put
images in this here discussion, I`d paste in the ensemble
situational awareness tables used to highlight when GEFS or EPS
means deviate significantly from climatology, to show off all
the...lack of any significant deviation. If there is anything to
highlight at all it would be that both the Euro and GEFS mean 500
mb heights are up around/above the 90th percentile late this week.
The main implication of this is that while I do hedge lower than
the NBM early in the period in the wake of the frontal passage, I
don`t go any lower than the 50th percentile of the NBM
distribution (and at times not even that low, given how aggressive
it is relative to the deterministic NBM). We`ll dip for sure as
the shallow, surface cold air surges in, but with 90th percentile
500 mb heights expected, I don`t anticipate it will be severe or
long-lasting.

Fair weather will dominate the period, and even though onshore
flow looks to return this weekend, rain chances don`t creep back
into even our Gulf waters until Monday afternoon. It looks to take
until Tuesday for enough moisture to manage even slight chances
of rain over Southeast Texas to emerge. Another thing we`ll need
to watch for going into the next week due to the return of onshore
flow is potential for nighttime fog and/or low clouds. Like the
tardy/non-existent rain chances, I also anticipate any issues here
will take some time to show back up. 850 mb RH looks to make a
pretty solid return on Monday, so low stratus seems like a fair
bet to be back in the picture Monday night. But dewpoints do seem
a bit slower to rebound relative to water temps. And, given that
I`m only forecasting conditions near or a little below normal, I
don`t expect those water temps to fall significantly. It looks to
take until Tuesday for dewpoints to rise high enough to make me
think about sea fog. Of course, once we get there...we`ll have
those dewpoints, winds out of a fairly favorable ESE direction,
but possibly a bit too strong for serious fog development. So
mixed signals, but definitely some indications that we could see
some patchy coastal fog back in the picture.

And now that we`re talking about Tuesday, which is Christmas Eve,
we now start dealing with the questions about the holiday
forecast. And, Ha! Ha! that day is beyond the scope of my
forecast, so you can`t make me talk about it! But really, I will
put down a few words, as long as we all agree that we can`t get
too deep into specifics this far out. Bringing back the SA Table
point from earlier, the ensemble means don`t show a strong signal
for anything beyond the 10th or 90th percentile, which implies
that we shouldn`t deviate a lot from climo here. But, just because
we`re not deviating a lot doesn`t mean we`re not going to deviate
at all. One glance at the CPC 8-14 day outlook makes that
ABUNDANTLY clear in that there is red everywhere. Just...all over
the place. This outlook clearly shows a tendency towards above
average temps across the entire United States except for South
Florida (equal chances) and a small corner of northwestern Alaska
(the lone bit of blue on this map).

Another way of looking at it is taking a look at the LREF
clustering data. For funsies, let`s talk about min temps on
Christmas Day. The range of temperatures across Southeast Texas on
this particular morning is...the middle to upper 50s. There is a
pretty tight spread around the LREF ensemble. For even more
funsies, I slid the clustering down to focus on the coldest
extremes of the guidance - just grabbing real rock bottom temps.
And that got us all the way down to...39 at Crockett. 40s and 50s
elsewhere. And that`s the extreme cold end of the guidance
envelope. So...either the GEFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles are
all way too underdispersive and there`ll be a snowy Christmas
miracle in the works or...you know...it`s just going to be a warm
holiday for us. Last I checked we weren`t on the Hallmark Channel,
so I`m gonna put my money on the warmth.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

CIGS should scatter and lift this afternoon, with much of the area
returning to VFR conditions later today. This evening, fog and low
CIGS will fill in once again, starting along coastal areas and
spreading inland as the night progresses. LIFR and VLIFR
conditions are likely to develop in most areas by midnight. Areas
further inland (KCLL and KUTS) might see the lowest flight levels
occur later during the early morning hours of Wednesday. A cold
front will approach KCLL around sunrise, pushing a line of showers
through SE Texas during the day. These showers may bring some
visibility reductions. Otherwise, Fog/CIGs should largely
clear/lift through the early afternoon, returning to MVFR/VFR
levels.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Light southeast winds will prevail through tonight and likely
most/all of tomorrow morning. Intermittent periods of dense fog
are likely again tonight in the bays and nearshore waters. The fog
threat will finally be put to rest but the next cold front
bringing some drier and cooler air into the region Wednesday
afternoon. Moderate north to northeast winds prevail behind the
front, and small craft will want to exercise caution. Those winds
then gradually diminish by Thursday. Look for a reinforcing front
to push through around the end of the week or start of the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 68 39 60 / 0 70 0 0
Houston (IAH) 63 74 46 64 / 10 60 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 71 50 61 / 0 30 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
for TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday
for TXZ436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs

[jasons2k]

Had a quick thundershower - .18” in about 5 minutes.

No freeze this weekend. Maybe mid-January.

[Cpv17]

Had a quick thundershower - .18” in about 5 minutes.

No freeze this weekend. Maybe mid-January.

That’s what I’m thinking too. This weekend will actually be beautiful. Looking forward to it.

[TexasBreeze]

It is so weird seeing a seabreeze with cumulonimbus clouds in mid December!

[Stratton20]

Always getting a good laugh with people trying to cancel winter on X, i have a feeling those folks are going to be eating some serious crow chowder in january and February lol

[Cpv17]

Always getting a good laugh with people trying to cancel winter on X, i have a feeling those folks are going to be eating some serious crow chowder in january and February lol

Too many people from the EC on there. It’s almost all NE related with a few from the SE.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah ive noticed its EC VS WC folks on their, when the west coast gets the cold and snow, the ec folks are all doom and gloom lol and vise versa, but its funny on one post that i saw, someone shared the noaa 8-14 day map showing the torch pattern for christmas, and you would thing the sky is falling with how people are reacting haha

[DoctorMu]

The Eyewall
Dreaming of a white “hot” Christmas? Pattern change to put winter on pause for much of the U.S.
By Matt Lanza on December 17, 2024

For meteorologists, winter technically starts at the beginning of December, not at the solstice which is coming up here shortly. But winter weather can happen all throughout fall too, and so far this season there's been a bit of it around the country. We've seen some decent snows at times in the Sierra of California, where the snowpack is running around 100 to 200 percent of normal for the date.


California snowpack is in good shape for this time of year.
The lake effect snow belts have been crushed this year at times. Erie, PA for example is having their second snowiest start to the season since recordkeeping began there in the late 1800s.


Erie, PA is off to their second snowiest start to a winter on record.
Many people think of Buffalo being the lake effect magnet, and it is at times, but the wind direction has definitely favored some of the Pennsylvania and southwest New York snowbelts. Precip is running about 150 to 200 percent of normal over the last 30 days in Erie versus 75 to 100 percent of normal in Buffalo. You can also see a lake effect snow signal off Lake Ontario too toward Watertown and the notorious Tug Hill Plateau.


The lake effect snow belts have seen significant precipitation over the last 30 days, impacting the area between Cleveland and Buffalo and east of Lake Ontario quite significantly. (NOAA)
There's been some cold at times, certainly in the northern Plains and Midwest and Northeast. But also the Intermountain West has been chilly at times. Not their coldest start to a winter by any means, but firmly in the middle of the pack or below average.

And we've got another blast of cold incoming here over the end of the week and parts of the weekend in the eastern two-thirds of the country, including a modest snow event tomorrow through Friday for parts of the Plains, Upper Midwest and Lakes. More mountain snows are likely out West also. But this pattern is going to change in a very big way after the weekend. A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that's expected to shift about two standard deviations from the mean, with even a 20 to 30 percent chance of a 99th percentile event. In other words, the ridge is going to be strong for December. As you might expect, that's likely to lead to abnormal warmth.


The December 26 through 31 temperature forecast is ugly if you like cold and snow.
In fact, it's not just likely to be warm, the confidence level in a warm forecast is about as good as you'll ever see at this lead time.

Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook is the most above normal (reddest) one they have issued (2008-present) for the Lower 48. The average location in the Lower 48 has a 75.9% chance of being above normal, a 19.9% chance of being near normal, and a 4.2% chance of being below normal for the Dec 24-30 period.

— Brian Brettschneider (@climatologist49.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T01:56:32.108Z

CPC forecasts are not technically intensity forecasts; they're confidence in above or below normal forecasts. That said, one could probably interpret their map shown by Brian above and the 5 day average for the 26th through 31st above it similarly. Warmer than normal and potentially much warmer than normal.

So what's the deal? Is winter over? No, it's December 17th. Winter is not over. However, we need to see some changes to dislodge this developing pattern next week. It would be very helpful to see the pattern over Alaska change. The animation below shows forecast height anomalies 20,000 feet up over the next 2 weeks or so. Above normal heights will often correlate to colder weather being dislodged from Alaska and northwest Canada and deposited south and east into the continental U.S. Indeed, we see above normal heights in the near-term, followed by a swift transition to deep blue, below normal heights next week. Good news for Alaskans who like cold weather. By the end of the model run we maybe see some changes over Alaska in terms of rising heights. This could help lead to downstream changes over the Lower 48, but whether that happens or not just as we cross into 2025 remains to be seen.


A pattern over Alaska hospitable to Lower 48 cold transitions to one that is decidedly hostile to it next week before some relaxation of the pattern late.
The bottom line: It's more likely to be a warm Christmas than a white one in many places. Next week looks ugly for winter lovers across the Lower 48. There may be some changes by about New Years, but exactly how fast any transition back colder occurs remains very much TBD at this time.

Bah humbug! lol

[tireman4]

998
FXUS64 KHGX 181113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
513 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Another round of widespread dense fog ongoing this morning courtesy
of light winds and onshore flow bringing moisture into SE Texas. Fog
should dissipate around mid-late morning. Use extra caution while
driving, leave plenty of space between cars, and use low-beam
headlights.

A cold front will enter the Brazos Valley around mid-morning this
morning, bringing with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. This
boundary and the associated line of storms will move through the
Houston Metro around noon, and is expected to be offshore around mid
to late afternoon. Cold and dry air will fill in behind the front.
The early arrival of the front in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
will allow daytime temperatures to drop into the 60s. Closer to the
Metro and along the coast, there will be time for daytime heating
to allow highs to reach into the 70s.

Temperatures for tonight will feel more like what we would expect
for December. Lows will drop into the upper 30s across the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods and into the 40s elsewhere. Lows along the
coast may be a touch higher as temps near 50 degrees. Highs for
Thursday will be in the 60s area wide under partly cloudy skies as
northerly winds continue to usher in cooler and drier air. Thursday
night`s lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s north of I-10 and
in the 40s south of I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north will support
the cool and dry weather pattern at the end of the week and over the
weekend. As the weekend progresses, this high will move off to the east
which will allow for the north to northeast winds to shift to the east
and southeast. This will bring the area a slow warming trend over the
weekend (mainly daytime highs) and into the start of the new week. This
forecast package has the area`s next best chance of rain on Tuesday
as the next system/disturbance moves across the state.

For temperatures, Friday starts out with lows mainly in the 40s (some
30s Piney Woods and Brazos Valley areas) and highs in the 60s. A reinforcing
cold front will bring the area its coldest temperatures on Friday night
(lows in the 30s/40s with possible near or subfreezing temperatures
in/around the Piney Woods) and Saturday (highs in the 50s/60s). After
another cool/cold night on Saturday night (lows in the 30s/40s), the
slow warming trend starts on Sunday (highs in the 50s/60s, around
3 to 4 degrees warmer than Saturday`s highs). We will get rid of the
30s on Sunday night with lows in the 40s/50s. The Holiday week and
last full week of 2024 starts out even warmer with Monday`s and Tuesday`s
highs back into the 60s/70s while Monday night`s and Tuesday night`s
low bottom out in 50s.

For those looking at Wednesday, the current forecast has us dry with
highs in the 70s. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 509 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

All sites experiencing LIFR VSBYs and CIGs this morning. Expect
conditions to improve around 15Z to MVFR levels. All sites
expected to improve to VFR this afternoon by 20Z. Showers and
thunderstorms expected to form in association with a cold front
today. This will impact northern terminals around 15Z, the Metro
around 18Z, and should move offshore around 20Z. Behind the front,
winds may gust to above 20kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Areas of fog...some dense...can be expected early this morning, especially
in the bays and nearshore waters. Light southeast winds will shift to
the northwest and north and strengthen later this afternoon through
early this evening after a cold front moves through the area. Some showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Behind the front, caution
flags will be needed, and advisories are possible. The offshore flow
behind the front will persist for the remainder of the week with winds
becoming east to southeast over the weekend. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 40 61 40 / 70 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 45 64 45 / 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 51 61 49 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ199-200-
210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 3 PM CST this afternoon
through late tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42

[DoctorMu]

Always getting a good laugh with people trying to cancel winter on X, i have a feeling those folks are going to be eating some serious crow chowder in january and February lol

Too many people from the EC on there. It’s almost all NE related with a few from the SE.

X has become trash with Musk removing newsfeeds and content related information. It's troll vs. bot. Storm2K is solid, although I mostly visit when there is some kind of weather event.

[DoctorMu]

FROPA + broken line of showers is moving through.

I'm happy just to see seasonable weather through Sunday. lol

Sunshine by the afternoon. The sun and January north Florida weather through Sunday.

Enjoy before Scrooge ruins everything next week. Then a return to seasonable temps on New Year's Eve. Maybe.

[Stratton20]

GFS 12z sees a big arctic blast on new years eve lol, but does kind of line up with my thinking that new years is when the transition occurs

[biggerbyte]

There is indication that another push of cold air coming around Jan.1. However, once again most of it stays well north and east of us.

After that, I would not be shocked to see a huge warmup for most of January. Here is is almost Christmas and I'm out washing my car worried about getting a sunburn.

[tireman4]

6
FXUS64 KHGX 181855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Today`s cold front is currently making it way through the Houston
area, producing broken line of showers across SE Texas. This front
should push offshore late this afternoon, with cold and dry air
filling in behind it. Highs should top out in the upper 70s south of
I-10, with a few isolated spots near the coast reaching the lower
80s due to compressional heating. Areas further north behind the
front should see highs today cap out in the mid/upper 60s. Short-
range models are now showing low clouds forming overnight across
portions of SE Texas tonight. This should limit cooling and thus
pull temperatures up a tad overnight. Lows for early Thursday
morning will be in in the upper 30s/40s.

With riding over Mexico and a mid/upper trough digging through the
Northern Plains/Great Lakes, northwesterly flow will remain in place
aloft. Cloud cover will slowly decrease during the day as surface
high pressure builds over Texas. With offshore flow and CAA still in
place, highs for Thursday should remain in the 60s across the area.
Overnight temperatures will be a tad cooler due to less cloud cover,
though lows for Friday morning will still be in the upper 30s/40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

Friday and the early part of the weekend look to continue to be
dominated by this post-frontal airmass as both forecast high and
low temperatures slide a little bit each day. This is a fairly
high confidence forecast, particularly at night as an increasingly
clear sky with lighter winds as high pressure drops into the
Great Plains will make for some real good radiational cooling
setups. Indeed, with the NBM median colder than the deterministic
NBM, I again went with a median-heavy mix of the two. Afternoon
highs have a bit of question about them as we`ll get a bit of a
battle between incoming cold advection and full heating potential
from a sunny sky. But...well...we are right up on the solstice, so
solar insolation is literally as minimal as it can get for a fully
sunny day. So, I`m quite fine going along with cooler temps.

As this will almost certainly be the coldest stretch of the week,
it`s worthwhile to ask if we`re going to be cooling to any
concerning levels. In reference to climo? Nah, not really. We`ll
definitely be on the cool side of average, but we will be in that
middle mass above the 10th percentile. Look for us to be on the
cool side of a December day for here, but not unusually so. Now,
it is still mid-late December, so you`re totally reasonable in
asking about freezing temps even in the absence of "extreme cold"
(by our standards, anyway). Way up north in Houston County (not
the city!) and Madison County, freezing temps look pretty likely
in the pre-dawn hours Friday night/Saturday morning. While I`d
expect mainly a brief, light freeze, it is still pretty high
confidence given the meteorological setup and the strong NBM
probabilities for reaching freezing. I`ve got lows in the 31-32
ballpark that night, though I find it responsible to note that the
NBM median has lows in the upper 20s in this area, while much of
the rest of the area north of the Houston metro fall to within a
degree or two of freezing. So, while I`m somewhat optimistic here,
there is some downward room in this chill.

Friday night will be the focus for low temps, as we`ll still be on
the downglide Thursday night. And for Saturday night and beyond,
the gradual return of onshore flow and increasing dewpoints will
lift our temperature floor. They`ll still be chilly nights for
sure bracketing Friday night for sure, but that is the one night
that stands out with a decent threat for a freeze. Saturday night
could well see some scattered spots hit the freezing mark as well,
though it will strongly depend on how onshore winds veer, and how
quickly low-boosting moisture will make its way back in as far as
the Piney Woods.

A warming trend will take hold for the late weekend and in the
leadup to Christmas Day. High pressure will drift to the east far
enough to return onshore flow, but largely continue to reign over
our weather in the new week. However, towards mid-week, a fairly
potent clipper low looks to shoot across the northern tier, and
will trail a cold front behind it down the Plains. Now, while it
looks initially pretty tough for a clipper, it should be weakening
as it gets towards the Great Lakes. If not for an upper trough
moving into the Great Plains right behind it, I probably wouldn`t
mention it at all. However, this trough could provide enough
support, and the fading boundary provide just enough surface lift
that we could see a smattering of showers and maybe even a
thunderstorm or two on Christmas Eve. Not a washout forecast by
any means, but you may want to stay tuned for if you`ll want to
have a rain jacket or umbrella with you to be on the safe side for
any Christmas Eve activities. And yeah, I`m sorry...unless Santa
is coming through with a shocking surprise, it`s gonna be rain and
not snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

A cold front is currently making it`s way through SE Texas,
producing a broken line of showers across the area. As this line
passes, CIGS/VIS will briefly lower to MVFR levels, lifting back
to VFR levels in it`s wake as drier air filters in and daytime
heating lifts cloud decks. Gusty northerly winds with the FROPA
will taper off this evening. Another round of patchy MVFR CIGS
may develop late tonight through early Thursday morning, clearing
out again after sunrise.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024

The incoming cold front is making its way through the Houston
metro at 1 pm. So, while visibility has largely improved over the
coastal waters on account of daytime sun, a true end to the fog
threat is shortly on its way when the front passes this afternoon.

The front will also bring a broken line of showers, along with a
weak thunderstorm or two embedded within the line. And following
the front, expect winds to swing around to northwesterly and
strengthen into the nighttime hours. Indeed, winds now look strong
enough to require a small craft advisory. This is a very low end
advisory, with winds just barely expected to reach the threshold,
but guidance suggests high probability that we`ll see several
hours tonight with winds just a little above 20 knots.

Offshore flow moderates, but will persist through the rest of the
week and into the weekend before veering more easterly, and then
southeasterly into the new week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 40 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 46 65 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 51 62 50 62 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CST this evening
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs