December 2024
Suppose to get up to 80 tomorrow here, then 29 Tuesday night
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5580
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
89
FXUS64 KHGX 091120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
We are starting to slowly, so very slowly drag ourselves out of the
weekend`s dreary tone in these overnight hours. Light rain showers
have almost entirely pushed out over the coastal Gulf waters, though
some drizzle/sprinkles are surely still occurring on the immediate
coast (if that`s really distinguishable from the fog/mist also
occurring there). Speaking of that fog, we do still have fog
observed across Southeast Texas, but it is not particularly dense in
any spots. Most visibility observations are in the 4-6 mile range
where there is obscuration. And then, finally, just starting to
creep in from the northwest, are hints of clearer conditions. There,
fog is largely non-reported, and even the low clouds are beginning
to become more scattered.
That trend towards improvement should carry on today. Rain chances
will be almost entirely limited to the Gulf, though some slight
chances do clip the immediate coastal areas within several miles of
shore. Fog will begin to dissipate shortly after sunrise, and should
be pretty much out of the picture (over land, anyway) by 10 am. And
coming up behind, clouds will be scattering out from northwest to
southeast across the area. Looking at mid-afternoon for mostly
cloudy skies to be gone, leaving partly cloudy (or better)
conditions going forward.
With clouds keeping overnight temps up and the sun coming out for
the day, we should bounce back for highs today quite effectively.
All those words I wrote yesterday about potential for records out at
College Station and Palacios? Well, they`re still not too far off,
as 90th percentile highs in the NBM are still around those records.
But the 24 hour trend in guidance is slightly downward, and the CAM-
only short range HREF ensemble shows lower probabilities of reaching
80 degrees. So...today may still give the day shift some thermometer
watching to do, but it does not seem as interesting an outcome as it
did last night. Plausible still, but less compelling.
Either way, whatever heat we do get is on borrowed time still.
Confidence remains high in a cold front getting shoved through the
area ahead of a strong high pressure center settling into the
Central US. Expect the wind shift to northwesterly to reach our
northern fringe - Caldwell, B/CS, Madisonville, Crockett - a little
before midnight tonight, reach Houston in the overnight hours, and
be over the Gulf towards dawn. Temperatures should drop sharply
correspondingly, resulting in lows in the 40s north and west of the
Houston metro, and lows in the 50s more coastward. We could still
see fog develop, particularly over the waters and near the coast,
but that should come to an end within a few hours of the wind shift.
The incoming airmass will be sharply colder - where highs today are
in the 70s and 80s - tomorrow will be just in the 50s and 60s.
Of course, a lot of how cold it`s going to seem will depend pretty
strongly on your perspective. You could look at it as up to 20
degrees colder tomorrow than it will be today. But also, you could
look at it as only about 5 degrees below seasonal averages. It is
December, after all! We`ll pile on a little more chill for tomorrow
night, though. Take another 5 degrees down from average, and we`ll
be looking at lows tomorrow night closer to 10 degrees below
average, decidedly cooler. This also means freezing temperatures are
likely to be making their return to the northern portions of our
area. Taking my deterministic forecast explicitly, look for lows of
32 or lower down into Washington, Grimes, and even the northern
reaches of Walker and Trinity counties.
Huntsville stays just on the warm side with a low of 34.
But, as much as I`d like to think I am a perfect forecaster, there`s
some obvious fuzz and uncertainty here. So what are the
probabilities of freezing temperatures we`re looking at here? Well,
I may be a bit on the aggressive side farther west with this
forecast, but freezing temps still appear a slam dunk in the far,
far northern parts of the forecast area. Crockett is 96 percent to
go below 32 degrees tomorrow night (and 71 percent to drop below
28!) Madison County, northeastern Brazos, and extreme northern parts
of Grimes and Walker counties also appear nearly certain to fall
below freezing tomorrow night. Farther south of there, however, and
potential seems to wane. Caldwell, Navasota, and Cleveland come in
around 50 percent. Bryan/College Station (likely thanks to more
urbanization) is only at 38 percent to get to freezing, Brenham at
32 percent, and Huntsville is only 29 percent. While I do still
wonder a bit about NBM`s ability to match the true probability
distribution, it should be partially mitigated now that we are
adding better resolution model systems that can handle very shallow
cold layers better than globals.
How long does our chilly air stick with us? Well, I`m out of time,
so you`ll have to read on to the long term section for that.
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Cool conditions continue in the wake of the front on Wednesday as
surface high pressure settles in over the state. Highs looks to be
much more uniform during the daytime, keeping largely to the
upper 50s/mid 60s. Lows for Thursday morning are still expected to
be cold, ranging from the 30s to 40s. There is a high (>90%)
chance that temperatures will drop to or below freezing around the
Brazos Valley & Piney Woods area, including some locations
further south like Shepherd and Cleveland. It is likely that
Freeze Watch/Warnings will be needed for these locations early on
Thursday.
Surface high pressure slides east early on Thursday, with
southeasterly flow to return as an upper level trough digs through
the Northern Great Basin. This next disturbance will spin up a
surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient and
further strengthening WAA/moisture advection. Warming
temperatures and rising rain chances can be expected in the days
following, with highs on Friday reaching the mid 60s/mid 70s.
Patchy sea fog may develop near the coastline and bays during the
evening/early morning hours, beginning as early as Friday
evening/early Saturday.
The upper level trough & surface low should swing E/ENE heading
into the weekend, pushing a weak cold front into SE Texas on
Saturday. Guidance is less certain on how this subsequent system
will behave, though the broad consensus leans towards the idea of
it slowing/stalling then lifting north in the days following. If
this solutions pans out, and the front stays inland, diminishing
winds ahead of it may enhance the development of sea fog. Overall,
warm and wet weather looks to continue over the weekend.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Morning conditions vary wildly across the area, with LIFR
(primarily, but not entirely, at the coast) to VFR (primarily,
but not entirely, well inland) and everything in between. Have
tried best to match obs and trend from there, but reality may not
be so linear. One thing I am confident in is the LLWS as winds
just aloft are quite strong.
Late morning, those winds will better mix to the surface,
resulting in scattering clouds and LLWS transitioning to gusty SW
winds. This should prevail until evening, when gusts start to fall
off towards sundown. Pooling of moisture ahead of cold front
likely means return of fog and stratus overnight, giving us a few
hours of degraded conditions again until front arrives to scour
this out and turn winds northwesterly. Only explicitly have the
front in the TAFs for IAH northward, but other sites should follow
shortly after and will appear in next cycle. VFR should rapidly
appear once front is through.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Southwesterly winds, showers and isolated storms can be expected
today ahead of an approaching cold front. Patchy sea fog has
developed this morning over Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters
from High Island to Freeport. Sea fog will clear up later this
morning, but should return again tonight. The cold front will push
off the coast early Tuesday morning, ending the threat of sea fog.
Strong northerly winds and high seas are expected to develop in the
wake of the cold front, with a Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. These strong winds could bring
low water levels across the bays during low tide Wednesday morning.
Winds and seas diminish Wednesday afternoon, then onshore flow
returns on Thursday. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be
needed late Thursday as winds and seas rise. Sea fog could redevelop
as early as Friday evening.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 46 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 54 62 38 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 59 64 45 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 091120
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
We are starting to slowly, so very slowly drag ourselves out of the
weekend`s dreary tone in these overnight hours. Light rain showers
have almost entirely pushed out over the coastal Gulf waters, though
some drizzle/sprinkles are surely still occurring on the immediate
coast (if that`s really distinguishable from the fog/mist also
occurring there). Speaking of that fog, we do still have fog
observed across Southeast Texas, but it is not particularly dense in
any spots. Most visibility observations are in the 4-6 mile range
where there is obscuration. And then, finally, just starting to
creep in from the northwest, are hints of clearer conditions. There,
fog is largely non-reported, and even the low clouds are beginning
to become more scattered.
That trend towards improvement should carry on today. Rain chances
will be almost entirely limited to the Gulf, though some slight
chances do clip the immediate coastal areas within several miles of
shore. Fog will begin to dissipate shortly after sunrise, and should
be pretty much out of the picture (over land, anyway) by 10 am. And
coming up behind, clouds will be scattering out from northwest to
southeast across the area. Looking at mid-afternoon for mostly
cloudy skies to be gone, leaving partly cloudy (or better)
conditions going forward.
With clouds keeping overnight temps up and the sun coming out for
the day, we should bounce back for highs today quite effectively.
All those words I wrote yesterday about potential for records out at
College Station and Palacios? Well, they`re still not too far off,
as 90th percentile highs in the NBM are still around those records.
But the 24 hour trend in guidance is slightly downward, and the CAM-
only short range HREF ensemble shows lower probabilities of reaching
80 degrees. So...today may still give the day shift some thermometer
watching to do, but it does not seem as interesting an outcome as it
did last night. Plausible still, but less compelling.
Either way, whatever heat we do get is on borrowed time still.
Confidence remains high in a cold front getting shoved through the
area ahead of a strong high pressure center settling into the
Central US. Expect the wind shift to northwesterly to reach our
northern fringe - Caldwell, B/CS, Madisonville, Crockett - a little
before midnight tonight, reach Houston in the overnight hours, and
be over the Gulf towards dawn. Temperatures should drop sharply
correspondingly, resulting in lows in the 40s north and west of the
Houston metro, and lows in the 50s more coastward. We could still
see fog develop, particularly over the waters and near the coast,
but that should come to an end within a few hours of the wind shift.
The incoming airmass will be sharply colder - where highs today are
in the 70s and 80s - tomorrow will be just in the 50s and 60s.
Of course, a lot of how cold it`s going to seem will depend pretty
strongly on your perspective. You could look at it as up to 20
degrees colder tomorrow than it will be today. But also, you could
look at it as only about 5 degrees below seasonal averages. It is
December, after all! We`ll pile on a little more chill for tomorrow
night, though. Take another 5 degrees down from average, and we`ll
be looking at lows tomorrow night closer to 10 degrees below
average, decidedly cooler. This also means freezing temperatures are
likely to be making their return to the northern portions of our
area. Taking my deterministic forecast explicitly, look for lows of
32 or lower down into Washington, Grimes, and even the northern
reaches of Walker and Trinity counties.
Huntsville stays just on the warm side with a low of 34.
But, as much as I`d like to think I am a perfect forecaster, there`s
some obvious fuzz and uncertainty here. So what are the
probabilities of freezing temperatures we`re looking at here? Well,
I may be a bit on the aggressive side farther west with this
forecast, but freezing temps still appear a slam dunk in the far,
far northern parts of the forecast area. Crockett is 96 percent to
go below 32 degrees tomorrow night (and 71 percent to drop below
28!) Madison County, northeastern Brazos, and extreme northern parts
of Grimes and Walker counties also appear nearly certain to fall
below freezing tomorrow night. Farther south of there, however, and
potential seems to wane. Caldwell, Navasota, and Cleveland come in
around 50 percent. Bryan/College Station (likely thanks to more
urbanization) is only at 38 percent to get to freezing, Brenham at
32 percent, and Huntsville is only 29 percent. While I do still
wonder a bit about NBM`s ability to match the true probability
distribution, it should be partially mitigated now that we are
adding better resolution model systems that can handle very shallow
cold layers better than globals.
How long does our chilly air stick with us? Well, I`m out of time,
so you`ll have to read on to the long term section for that.
Luchs
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Cool conditions continue in the wake of the front on Wednesday as
surface high pressure settles in over the state. Highs looks to be
much more uniform during the daytime, keeping largely to the
upper 50s/mid 60s. Lows for Thursday morning are still expected to
be cold, ranging from the 30s to 40s. There is a high (>90%)
chance that temperatures will drop to or below freezing around the
Brazos Valley & Piney Woods area, including some locations
further south like Shepherd and Cleveland. It is likely that
Freeze Watch/Warnings will be needed for these locations early on
Thursday.
Surface high pressure slides east early on Thursday, with
southeasterly flow to return as an upper level trough digs through
the Northern Great Basin. This next disturbance will spin up a
surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient and
further strengthening WAA/moisture advection. Warming
temperatures and rising rain chances can be expected in the days
following, with highs on Friday reaching the mid 60s/mid 70s.
Patchy sea fog may develop near the coastline and bays during the
evening/early morning hours, beginning as early as Friday
evening/early Saturday.
The upper level trough & surface low should swing E/ENE heading
into the weekend, pushing a weak cold front into SE Texas on
Saturday. Guidance is less certain on how this subsequent system
will behave, though the broad consensus leans towards the idea of
it slowing/stalling then lifting north in the days following. If
this solutions pans out, and the front stays inland, diminishing
winds ahead of it may enhance the development of sea fog. Overall,
warm and wet weather looks to continue over the weekend.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Morning conditions vary wildly across the area, with LIFR
(primarily, but not entirely, at the coast) to VFR (primarily,
but not entirely, well inland) and everything in between. Have
tried best to match obs and trend from there, but reality may not
be so linear. One thing I am confident in is the LLWS as winds
just aloft are quite strong.
Late morning, those winds will better mix to the surface,
resulting in scattering clouds and LLWS transitioning to gusty SW
winds. This should prevail until evening, when gusts start to fall
off towards sundown. Pooling of moisture ahead of cold front
likely means return of fog and stratus overnight, giving us a few
hours of degraded conditions again until front arrives to scour
this out and turn winds northwesterly. Only explicitly have the
front in the TAFs for IAH northward, but other sites should follow
shortly after and will appear in next cycle. VFR should rapidly
appear once front is through.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Southwesterly winds, showers and isolated storms can be expected
today ahead of an approaching cold front. Patchy sea fog has
developed this morning over Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters
from High Island to Freeport. Sea fog will clear up later this
morning, but should return again tonight. The cold front will push
off the coast early Tuesday morning, ending the threat of sea fog.
Strong northerly winds and high seas are expected to develop in the
wake of the cold front, with a Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. These strong winds could bring
low water levels across the bays during low tide Wednesday morning.
Winds and seas diminish Wednesday afternoon, then onshore flow
returns on Thursday. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be
needed late Thursday as winds and seas rise. Sea fog could redevelop
as early as Friday evening.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 46 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 54 62 38 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 59 64 45 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
These past few days have been horrendous. I did manage to pick up .65” of rain though. If it’s not gonna rain, I’m ready to see some sun and get this sticky swamp mess outta here.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5580
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
A few shortwaves/disturbances aloft and enough moisture are
keeping most of the terminals under LIFR and IFR conditions. As
the afternoon progresses, expect a gradual improvement from west
to east, along with gusty SW winds at times. A cold front will
make its way tonight into early Tuesday. LIFR to MVFR conditions
are expected ahead of and along the FROPA with low ceilings, areas
of fog and a few showers. Northwest to north winds will strengthen
after the FROPA; therefore, gusty conditions can be expected
towards the end of the TAF cycle.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
A few shortwaves/disturbances aloft and enough moisture are
keeping most of the terminals under LIFR and IFR conditions. As
the afternoon progresses, expect a gradual improvement from west
to east, along with gusty SW winds at times. A cold front will
make its way tonight into early Tuesday. LIFR to MVFR conditions
are expected ahead of and along the FROPA with low ceilings, areas
of fog and a few showers. Northwest to north winds will strengthen
after the FROPA; therefore, gusty conditions can be expected
towards the end of the TAF cycle.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5580
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
902
FXUS64 KHGX 092147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
A few disturbances aloft and a pre-frontal sfc trough are finally
moving off the coast this afternoon, resulting clearing skies.
With mostly sunny skies and breezy southwest winds, temperatures
are warming up generally in the upper 70s to near 80.
A strong cold front will move through Southeast Texas later
tonight into early Wednesday, resulting in a wind shift to the
northwest and north. The estimated time of arrival of the front
near the Brazos Valley is between 11PM tonight - 1AM, the Houston
metro area between 3 to 5AM and the coastal waters by sunrise.
Areas of fog and light drizzle can be expected ahead of and along
the frontal passage tonight. Visibilities can suddenly drop to a
quarter mile or less at times, especially along the coast. Mid to
upper-level vort-maxes will linger around by Tuesday, keeping the
region mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler. Highs will generally
remain in the 60s.
A reinforcing cold front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
stronger CAA will be in place. Mostly clear skies, northwest to
north dry winds will result in temperatures mainly in the 30s
inland, and in the 40s along the islands. Will continue to monitor
Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods area as there is a 50 to 70
percent chance of having sub-freezing temperatures by early
Wednesday morning.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
With the surface low well to the east of the area, high pressure
will continue to reign for the start of the long-term period.
850mb shows a strong LLJ remaining over SE Texas through Wednesday
morning, and with warm sea surface temperatures this could allow
winds to mix down to the surface and produce gusts up to 30 mph.
Winds should relax during the afternoon hours.
In addition to the potential for gusty winds, the potential for
cold and even freezing to just below freezing temperatures is
increasing for Wednesday morning. Locations in the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods have a high chance (60-90%) of experiencing
temperatures of 32F or below. Elsewhere, temperatures on
Wednesday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s, and in the low
40s along the coast.
Surface high pressure will push off to the east early Thursday,
allowing SE flow to return. This onshore flow arrives just in time
for the next upper level trough to deepen into the Pacific NW.
Closer to the surface, another surface low is expected to develop
over the leeward side of the Rockies. This will result in a
tightening pressure gradient and increased onshore flow for SE
Texas. As a result of this, expect a warming trend with
temperatures back into the 70s for locations generally west of
I-45 by Friday and the majority of the area in the 70s by
Saturday. Furthermore, with increase onshore flow brings an
increase in moisture. With mid-level shortwaves traversing the
area Friday and Saturday will see an increase in rain chances.
This area of low pressure will move off to the east through the
weekend and eject a weak cold front in the process. Temperatures
will drop back into the 60s for most of the area with the
exception of the SWmost counties where highs will be in the low
70s. Guidance varies drastically on how this front progresses
through the weekend. GFS has the front stalling over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods area. The more aggressive solutions (ECMWF
and Canadian) have the front reaching further into the metro and
even to the coast. In any case, this is very late in the long-term
period, so won`t dwell too much on this with how much spread
there is among guidance.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
A few shortwaves/disturbances aloft and enough moisture are
keeping most of the terminals under LIFR and IFR conditions. As
the afternoon progresses, expect a gradual improvement from west
to east, along with gusty SW winds at times. A cold front will
make its way tonight into early Tuesday. LIFR to MVFR conditions
are expected ahead of and along the FROPA with low ceilings, areas
of fog and a few showers. Northwest to north winds will strengthen
after the FROPA; therefore, gusty conditions can be expected
towards the end of the TAF cycle.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Patchy to dense sea fog is expected again tonight. The
approaching cold front will push off the coast early Tuesday
morning, ending the threat of sea fog. Strong northerly winds and
high seas are expected to develop in the wake of the cold front,
with a Gale Warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. These strong winds could bring low water levels
across the bays during low tide Wednesday morning. Winds and seas
diminish Wednesday afternoon, then onshore flow returns on
Thursday. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed
late Thursday as winds and seas rise. Sea fog could redevelop as
early as Friday evening.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 63 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 64 45 60 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 092147
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
A few disturbances aloft and a pre-frontal sfc trough are finally
moving off the coast this afternoon, resulting clearing skies.
With mostly sunny skies and breezy southwest winds, temperatures
are warming up generally in the upper 70s to near 80.
A strong cold front will move through Southeast Texas later
tonight into early Wednesday, resulting in a wind shift to the
northwest and north. The estimated time of arrival of the front
near the Brazos Valley is between 11PM tonight - 1AM, the Houston
metro area between 3 to 5AM and the coastal waters by sunrise.
Areas of fog and light drizzle can be expected ahead of and along
the frontal passage tonight. Visibilities can suddenly drop to a
quarter mile or less at times, especially along the coast. Mid to
upper-level vort-maxes will linger around by Tuesday, keeping the
region mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler. Highs will generally
remain in the 60s.
A reinforcing cold front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
stronger CAA will be in place. Mostly clear skies, northwest to
north dry winds will result in temperatures mainly in the 30s
inland, and in the 40s along the islands. Will continue to monitor
Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods area as there is a 50 to 70
percent chance of having sub-freezing temperatures by early
Wednesday morning.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
With the surface low well to the east of the area, high pressure
will continue to reign for the start of the long-term period.
850mb shows a strong LLJ remaining over SE Texas through Wednesday
morning, and with warm sea surface temperatures this could allow
winds to mix down to the surface and produce gusts up to 30 mph.
Winds should relax during the afternoon hours.
In addition to the potential for gusty winds, the potential for
cold and even freezing to just below freezing temperatures is
increasing for Wednesday morning. Locations in the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods have a high chance (60-90%) of experiencing
temperatures of 32F or below. Elsewhere, temperatures on
Wednesday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s, and in the low
40s along the coast.
Surface high pressure will push off to the east early Thursday,
allowing SE flow to return. This onshore flow arrives just in time
for the next upper level trough to deepen into the Pacific NW.
Closer to the surface, another surface low is expected to develop
over the leeward side of the Rockies. This will result in a
tightening pressure gradient and increased onshore flow for SE
Texas. As a result of this, expect a warming trend with
temperatures back into the 70s for locations generally west of
I-45 by Friday and the majority of the area in the 70s by
Saturday. Furthermore, with increase onshore flow brings an
increase in moisture. With mid-level shortwaves traversing the
area Friday and Saturday will see an increase in rain chances.
This area of low pressure will move off to the east through the
weekend and eject a weak cold front in the process. Temperatures
will drop back into the 60s for most of the area with the
exception of the SWmost counties where highs will be in the low
70s. Guidance varies drastically on how this front progresses
through the weekend. GFS has the front stalling over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods area. The more aggressive solutions (ECMWF
and Canadian) have the front reaching further into the metro and
even to the coast. In any case, this is very late in the long-term
period, so won`t dwell too much on this with how much spread
there is among guidance.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
A few shortwaves/disturbances aloft and enough moisture are
keeping most of the terminals under LIFR and IFR conditions. As
the afternoon progresses, expect a gradual improvement from west
to east, along with gusty SW winds at times. A cold front will
make its way tonight into early Tuesday. LIFR to MVFR conditions
are expected ahead of and along the FROPA with low ceilings, areas
of fog and a few showers. Northwest to north winds will strengthen
after the FROPA; therefore, gusty conditions can be expected
towards the end of the TAF cycle.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2024
Patchy to dense sea fog is expected again tonight. The
approaching cold front will push off the coast early Tuesday
morning, ending the threat of sea fog. Strong northerly winds and
high seas are expected to develop in the wake of the cold front,
with a Gale Warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. These strong winds could bring low water levels
across the bays during low tide Wednesday morning. Winds and seas
diminish Wednesday afternoon, then onshore flow returns on
Thursday. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed
late Thursday as winds and seas rise. Sea fog could redevelop as
early as Friday evening.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 47 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 63 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 64 45 60 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Adams
Finally, some sunshine! Turned out to be a decent day after a disgusting start.
Driving back tomorrow to BCS. Expecting a freeze IMFY. Not so much at the CLL airport.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5580
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
911
FXUS64 KHGX 100939
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Cold front is in the process of moving across the area and should be
off the coast by around 6am. Areas of dense fog in advance will lift
fairly quickly after the wind shift. Modestly cooler air will filter
into the region this morning, but look for stronger CAA to commence
later this afternoon with a secondary push of even drier air making
its way way across the region. NNW winds just above the surface
(~925mb) will increase to 35-45kt and anticipate some of this to mix
down to the surface to produce windy conditions...especially along
and west of I-45 corridor in the 3pm-9pm timeframe. Debated issuing
a Wind Advisory with this package, but will let the day crew take
another look at things and pull the trigger if it still looks
necessary. There`s little doubt coastal locations will need one at a
minimum.
Much colder wx is anticipated overnight as high pressure makes its
way south toward the Big Bend and Rio Grande tonight. Gusty north
winds should gradually subside headed into the late evening &
overnight hours. Combined with clearing skies this should allow
temps to radiate down well into the 30s (and perhaps some upper 20s
across isolated locations across some of our far northern zones). As
such, have issued a Freeze Watch for tonight for locations having
>50% chance of seeing temps <33F as depicted by DESI. This doesn`t
include the Houston metro area. Primary limitation at this time
would be for winds to stay up a bit longer than currently forecast
and not allowing as drastic of a temp fall.
High pressure will drift eastward across the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Under mclear skies, readings will rebound to around
60F during the day then back into the 30s Wed night.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Surface high pressure slides east early on Thursday, with
southeasterly flow to return as an upper level trough digs through
the Great Basin. This next disturbance will spin up a surface low
over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient and further
strengthening WAA/moisture advection. Warming temperatures and
rising rain chances can be expected in the days following, with
highs on Friday reaching the mid 60s/mid 70s. Patchy sea fog could
develop over the coastline, bays and nearshore waters Friday
evening/early Saturday morning.
The upper level trough & surface low should fill NE through the
Upper MS River Valley on Saturday, pushing a weak cold front into
the Southern Plains. While there is a wide spread among LREF
ensemble members at this point of the forecast, the broader
consensus still suggests that this boundary will slow, stall out
somewhere over the area/in the vicinity, then lift north around
Sunday or so. Long range deterministic models suggests that another
mid/upper trough will slide across the Plains on Monday. Long range
ensembles support this outcome, though ensemble spread remains high
at this point. This feature could bring yet another frontal boundary
into SE Texas later that night, though it`s too early to give
specifics given the uncertainty.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Dense fog will wash out early this morning with the passage of the
cold front which should be moving off the coast ~12z. SCT/BKN
LIFR/IFR ceilings should follow a few hours afterwards then lift as
well. VFR conditions should then prevail for the remainder of the
day but strong gusty nnw winds will become an issue as the afternoon
progresses. Would anticipate sustained 15-25kt winds in the 21-03z
timeframe with some higher gusts...perhaps at or above 30kt at times
especially along and east of I-45. Surface winds speeds and
gustiness should gradually subside after 3z, but later shifts will
need to evaluate the need to include the mention of LLWS into the
overnight hours as winds just above the surface should remain
35-40kt until 9z or so. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
The cold front will soon push off the coast, blowing out the sea
fog. Strong northerly winds and high seas are expected to develop in
the wake of this cold front, with Gale Warnings in effect from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. These strong winds
could bring low water levels across the bays during low tide
Wednesday morning. P-ETSS guidance suggests that water levels across
Galveston Bay could reach -0.6ft to -1.1ft below MLLW. Winds and
seas diminish throughout Wednesday, then onshore flow returns on
Thursday. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by
Thursday evening as winds and seas rise. Rain chances return on
Friday with sea fog possibly returning Friday evening.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 62 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 43 60 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
TXZ163-164-176>178-195>199.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ214-
226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 100939
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Cold front is in the process of moving across the area and should be
off the coast by around 6am. Areas of dense fog in advance will lift
fairly quickly after the wind shift. Modestly cooler air will filter
into the region this morning, but look for stronger CAA to commence
later this afternoon with a secondary push of even drier air making
its way way across the region. NNW winds just above the surface
(~925mb) will increase to 35-45kt and anticipate some of this to mix
down to the surface to produce windy conditions...especially along
and west of I-45 corridor in the 3pm-9pm timeframe. Debated issuing
a Wind Advisory with this package, but will let the day crew take
another look at things and pull the trigger if it still looks
necessary. There`s little doubt coastal locations will need one at a
minimum.
Much colder wx is anticipated overnight as high pressure makes its
way south toward the Big Bend and Rio Grande tonight. Gusty north
winds should gradually subside headed into the late evening &
overnight hours. Combined with clearing skies this should allow
temps to radiate down well into the 30s (and perhaps some upper 20s
across isolated locations across some of our far northern zones). As
such, have issued a Freeze Watch for tonight for locations having
>50% chance of seeing temps <33F as depicted by DESI. This doesn`t
include the Houston metro area. Primary limitation at this time
would be for winds to stay up a bit longer than currently forecast
and not allowing as drastic of a temp fall.
High pressure will drift eastward across the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Under mclear skies, readings will rebound to around
60F during the day then back into the 30s Wed night.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Surface high pressure slides east early on Thursday, with
southeasterly flow to return as an upper level trough digs through
the Great Basin. This next disturbance will spin up a surface low
over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient and further
strengthening WAA/moisture advection. Warming temperatures and
rising rain chances can be expected in the days following, with
highs on Friday reaching the mid 60s/mid 70s. Patchy sea fog could
develop over the coastline, bays and nearshore waters Friday
evening/early Saturday morning.
The upper level trough & surface low should fill NE through the
Upper MS River Valley on Saturday, pushing a weak cold front into
the Southern Plains. While there is a wide spread among LREF
ensemble members at this point of the forecast, the broader
consensus still suggests that this boundary will slow, stall out
somewhere over the area/in the vicinity, then lift north around
Sunday or so. Long range deterministic models suggests that another
mid/upper trough will slide across the Plains on Monday. Long range
ensembles support this outcome, though ensemble spread remains high
at this point. This feature could bring yet another frontal boundary
into SE Texas later that night, though it`s too early to give
specifics given the uncertainty.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Dense fog will wash out early this morning with the passage of the
cold front which should be moving off the coast ~12z. SCT/BKN
LIFR/IFR ceilings should follow a few hours afterwards then lift as
well. VFR conditions should then prevail for the remainder of the
day but strong gusty nnw winds will become an issue as the afternoon
progresses. Would anticipate sustained 15-25kt winds in the 21-03z
timeframe with some higher gusts...perhaps at or above 30kt at times
especially along and east of I-45. Surface winds speeds and
gustiness should gradually subside after 3z, but later shifts will
need to evaluate the need to include the mention of LLWS into the
overnight hours as winds just above the surface should remain
35-40kt until 9z or so. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
The cold front will soon push off the coast, blowing out the sea
fog. Strong northerly winds and high seas are expected to develop in
the wake of this cold front, with Gale Warnings in effect from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. These strong winds
could bring low water levels across the bays during low tide
Wednesday morning. P-ETSS guidance suggests that water levels across
Galveston Bay could reach -0.6ft to -1.1ft below MLLW. Winds and
seas diminish throughout Wednesday, then onshore flow returns on
Thursday. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by
Thursday evening as winds and seas rise. Rain chances return on
Friday with sea fog possibly returning Friday evening.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 62 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 43 60 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
TXZ163-164-176>178-195>199.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ214-
226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
Was supposed to get 1.2”-1.4” last weekend according to the WPC maps.
Verification: 0.32”
That’s a Margin of Error (MOE) of .98” or 305.25%
Verification: 0.32”
That’s a Margin of Error (MOE) of .98” or 305.25%
34 here this morning.
36.6 this morning.
The giant moon and sun on the NWS graphics right over Harris and Montgomery Counties is genius. I can see *exactly* where that line is now.
The giant moon and sun on the NWS graphics right over Harris and Montgomery Counties is genius. I can see *exactly* where that line is now.
32°F low at the CLL airport last night.
31°F low IMFY.
It's down to 34°F IMFY right now. It will be nice to get a respite from mosquitoes, although the dry fall has helped in that area.
31°F low IMFY.
It's down to 34°F IMFY right now. It will be nice to get a respite from mosquitoes, although the dry fall has helped in that area.
Euro and CMC have a pretty potent FROPA about the 20th. I've given up on GFS.
It’s 38 here with a DP of 35. It’s gonna be frosty outside in the morning!
I woke up at 6:30 am. 29°F and mega frost in the backyard. I should have taken a picture - It almost looked like snow - really thick frost. Couldn't fall back asleep anyway. The Aggie UHI kept it above freezing at the airport.
It's now 61°F with a turnaround S wind, but DP still in the upper 20s. Beautifully sunny. My kind of perfect day!
It's now 61°F with a turnaround S wind, but DP still in the upper 20s. Beautifully sunny. My kind of perfect day!
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5158
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu GFS is on board now with a big front
Yeah, I saw it. Even the GFS clown show gets it. It probably means a January thaw. We'll see.
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I should add that the Canadian sees a winter storm in Arkansas about the 19/20th, with the FROPA, that becomes a fierce Nor'easter.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5158
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
The CMC actually tried to bring in some light snow up around huntsville lol, on weatherbell it at least shows that too me with the zoomed in option
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