November 2024
71°F and clear skies. There wasn't enough rain last night, but the sun angle is lower. Thursday/Friday will bring another FROPA. Mild conditions for the weekend.
Looks like there will be more heavy rain this week over here. OUN already mentioning that a flood watch will be needed for later this week. The WPC also already has the area in a slight risk for flash flooding in the day 4 outlook. What a difference a week makes.
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Looks like the wet pattern continues into the 2nd week of november, also have high confidence in a high latitude blocking pattern developing as well, or a -NAO/ -AO/ -EPO type set up, ensembles have been pretty consistent with this ideas, think its possible that chillier weather could follow beyond this wet pattern regime
Looks mainly N of I-10. Don’t see much rain in my forecast. Maybe another inch over the next week or two, but that’s alright with me.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:50 pm Looks like the wet pattern continues into the 2nd week of november, also have high confidence in a high latitude blocking pattern developing as well, or a -NAO/ -AO/ -EPO type set up, ensembles have been pretty consistent with this ideas, think its possible that chillier weather could follow beyond this wet pattern regime
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ABC13 has highs in SE texas in the upper 60’s ( 67-69) late next week
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
583
FXUS64 KHGX 060900
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Tranquil wx is expected today as some drier llvl air has filtered
into the area behind yesterdays front. This boundary is currently
now stalled off the coast and should be returning back north as a
warm front tonight and Thursday. As it lifts back inland, look for
some increasing cloud cover, warmer overnight lows and some
scattered showers and isolated tstms. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Going into Friday, warm and humid air remains in place as surface
low pressure begins to develop in north Texas as an upper level low
approaches from the Four Corners region. This upper level low will
track north-northeastward through the Central Plains and towards the
Great Lakes, and the subsequent surface low will do the same. As it
does so, it`ll drag a cold front through Southeast Texas generally
in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. Showers and storms will
be possible both ahead of and along the frontal boundary, especially
for areas east of I-45 where closer proximity to the LLJ, greater
amounts of frontogenetic forcing, and higher PW values will allow
for higher rainfall rates. As a result, WPC has outlined these areas
in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall. Cooler
temperatures filter in behind the front with high temperatures
generally in the 70s/80s and low temperatures in the 50s/60s over
the weekend.
This cold front is also expected to act as a barrier to Rafael and
keep it from nearing the northwestern Gulf coast. For additional
details on Rafael, see the Tropical section down below. Onshore flow
returns early next week leading to an increasing trend in
temperatures back towards the mid 80s along with increasing chances
for rainfall. There is sufficient agreement between deterministic
models on an upper level trough sweeping through the western CONUS
in the early to middle part of next week. It`s too early to lock in
a FROPA at this point, but NBM trends just past the long term period
are pointing downward. We shall see!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
MVFR ceilings from the metro area to the coast should lift and
somewhat scatter out as we head into the mid morning hours. VFR
conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day. Cloudiness
should roll back into the area tonight as the stalled front moves
back north as a warm front. There is some uncertainty as to just how
low ceilings will become as there`s a mix of guidance showing anywhere
between LIFR to IFR heading into sunrise and the morning hours
Thursday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Isolated rain showers early this morning are expected to push out of
the Gulf waters later today leading to a relatively dry Wednesday.
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through early
Thursday morning due to the rip current risk remaining elevated
along with elevated tidal levels during high tide. Light
northeasterly winds gradually transition to easterly by this
afternoon, then becoming onshore flow tonight and prevailing
through the end of the work week. Rain chances increase Friday
into Saturday as another cold front moves through the region and
brings another period of northeasterly winds.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Hurricane Rafael in the
Caribbean Sea. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
make its way towards the central Gulf of Mexico late this week into
the weekend. Swells from Rafael are currently expected to increase
wave heights along with carry an increased risk of rip currents over
the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to issue advisories on
Hurricane Rafael currently just north of the Cayman Islands. It
is expected to make landfall in western Cuba later today, then
emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It`s northwestward to
west-northwestward movement will take Rafael towards the central
Gulf of Mexico late in the week. Uncertainty still remains in
exactly what happens to Rafael once it`s in the central Gulf, and
as a result it is tough to pinpoint any specific local impacts at
this time other than its swells increasing wave heights and
increasing the risk of rip currents over the weekend. A cold
front passing through Southeast Texas Friday night into Saturday
should act as a barrier for us, but it will definitely be worth
keeping an eye on the latest updates from the National Hurricane
Center and our office as the forecast continues to evolve.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 64 83 69 / 0 20 60 30
Houston (IAH) 81 70 85 71 / 0 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 81 74 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 060900
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Tranquil wx is expected today as some drier llvl air has filtered
into the area behind yesterdays front. This boundary is currently
now stalled off the coast and should be returning back north as a
warm front tonight and Thursday. As it lifts back inland, look for
some increasing cloud cover, warmer overnight lows and some
scattered showers and isolated tstms. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Going into Friday, warm and humid air remains in place as surface
low pressure begins to develop in north Texas as an upper level low
approaches from the Four Corners region. This upper level low will
track north-northeastward through the Central Plains and towards the
Great Lakes, and the subsequent surface low will do the same. As it
does so, it`ll drag a cold front through Southeast Texas generally
in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. Showers and storms will
be possible both ahead of and along the frontal boundary, especially
for areas east of I-45 where closer proximity to the LLJ, greater
amounts of frontogenetic forcing, and higher PW values will allow
for higher rainfall rates. As a result, WPC has outlined these areas
in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall. Cooler
temperatures filter in behind the front with high temperatures
generally in the 70s/80s and low temperatures in the 50s/60s over
the weekend.
This cold front is also expected to act as a barrier to Rafael and
keep it from nearing the northwestern Gulf coast. For additional
details on Rafael, see the Tropical section down below. Onshore flow
returns early next week leading to an increasing trend in
temperatures back towards the mid 80s along with increasing chances
for rainfall. There is sufficient agreement between deterministic
models on an upper level trough sweeping through the western CONUS
in the early to middle part of next week. It`s too early to lock in
a FROPA at this point, but NBM trends just past the long term period
are pointing downward. We shall see!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
MVFR ceilings from the metro area to the coast should lift and
somewhat scatter out as we head into the mid morning hours. VFR
conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day. Cloudiness
should roll back into the area tonight as the stalled front moves
back north as a warm front. There is some uncertainty as to just how
low ceilings will become as there`s a mix of guidance showing anywhere
between LIFR to IFR heading into sunrise and the morning hours
Thursday. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Isolated rain showers early this morning are expected to push out of
the Gulf waters later today leading to a relatively dry Wednesday.
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through early
Thursday morning due to the rip current risk remaining elevated
along with elevated tidal levels during high tide. Light
northeasterly winds gradually transition to easterly by this
afternoon, then becoming onshore flow tonight and prevailing
through the end of the work week. Rain chances increase Friday
into Saturday as another cold front moves through the region and
brings another period of northeasterly winds.
Mariners should monitor the progress of Hurricane Rafael in the
Caribbean Sea. It is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
make its way towards the central Gulf of Mexico late this week into
the weekend. Swells from Rafael are currently expected to increase
wave heights along with carry an increased risk of rip currents over
the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to issue advisories on
Hurricane Rafael currently just north of the Cayman Islands. It
is expected to make landfall in western Cuba later today, then
emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It`s northwestward to
west-northwestward movement will take Rafael towards the central
Gulf of Mexico late in the week. Uncertainty still remains in
exactly what happens to Rafael once it`s in the central Gulf, and
as a result it is tough to pinpoint any specific local impacts at
this time other than its swells increasing wave heights and
increasing the risk of rip currents over the weekend. A cold
front passing through Southeast Texas Friday night into Saturday
should act as a barrier for us, but it will definitely be worth
keeping an eye on the latest updates from the National Hurricane
Center and our office as the forecast continues to evolve.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 64 83 69 / 0 20 60 30
Houston (IAH) 81 70 85 71 / 0 20 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 81 74 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
The CPC still has above average temps for the next two weeks.
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- Contact:
Maybe slightly, but in reality probably closer to just slightly average temperatures( ensembles only show low 80’s for highs), If anything the way above normal temperatures look to focus over the NE and eastern US, the eastern US is gonna get crushed by the SE ridge, they may not even have a winter this year, kind of looks like a -PNA is going to be a big player going forward
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
120
FXUS64 KHGX 062102
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
The brief cooler and drier period behind the early morning frontal
passage yesterday is quickly coming to an end as the boundary
pushes back onshore as a warm front. This is quite visible in the
latest surface observations, which indicate a return to high 60s
dew points for most locations south of the I-10 corridor along
with a shift to ESE surface winds. Expect this trend to continue
overnight as the front pushes northward and onshore winds push dew
point values up into the 70s once again. WAA, along with an
increase in low stratus, will result in elevated low temperatures
overnight with values in the mid 60s in the northern zones and the
upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. The increase in moisture, and
resultant low dewpoint depressions, will also promote the
development of fog overnight which could lead to some hazardous
roadways for early morning commuters tomorrow.
Shower coverage will increase heading into tomorrow with the
northward push of the warm front along with the approach of a
robust upper trough from the west. Rain chances remain highest in
the western half of the area (i.e. west of I-45). Despite this,
rainfall rates should be fairly light and QPF should remain below
a half inch across the board. Highs tomorrow will increase a few
degrees, blunted by extensive cloud covers. Look for values in the
lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
On Friday an upper level low approaches from the SW U.S. This upper
low will track to the northeast through the Central Plains. An
associated cold front will push into southeast Texas beginning Friday
afternoon and push to the coast on Saturday morning. Scattered Showers and
storms will be possible both ahead of and along the frontal boundary.
Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front with high temperatures
generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s and low temperatures from the
upper 50s to the upper 60s this weekend. There will be a chance for
some showers and storms on Sunday as well as an upper level disturbance
moves across the area.
A warm front will move north through the area on Monday with onshore flow
returning. High pressure aloft will result in little chances of rain early
next week. A significant cold front is expected around mid-week which
will bring another chance of showers and storms and cooler temperatures
for the end of next week.
Concerning Hurricane Rafael, the tropical cyclone is expected to
move westward from western Cuba reaching the central Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, where it will slow down and also begin to weaken due to
southwesterly wind shear. Rafael will likely meander out there
in the central Gulf being stuck in a weak flow pattern on Sun and Mon.
The tropical cyclone could also respond to some mid-level ridging
developing over the northern Gulf on Monday which would induce a
southwest movement toward the southern Gulf and Mexico early next week.
Either way, Rafael is not expected to impact southeast Texas other than
increasing wave heights from swells and elevated water levels and an
increased risk of rip currents this weekend.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Conditions will generally sit in the VFR to high end MVFR range
into the evening as a warm front pushes onshore, resulting in an
expansion of cloud cover. As such, we could see the re-emergence
of cigs near 2500ft before sunrise, especially along the coast.
Deterioration in conditions will occur overnight, with IFR cigs
and periods of fog expected between approximately 09Z and 15Z
Thursday. IFR cigs will improve with daytime heating. By tomorrow
afternoon, we will also see the return of showers to the region
which may prolong reduced cig/visibility conditions.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Easterly winds will prevail through the end of the work week. Light winds
will become moderate on Thursday night and friday. Rain chances
will increase Friday night into Saturday as another cold front moves
through the region and brings another period of northeasterly winds.
Swells from Hurricane Rafael are currently expected to increase
wave heights along with carry an increased risk of rip currents over
the weekend.
Wood
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 82 70 80 / 10 50 30 60
Houston (IAH) 71 85 72 82 / 10 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 75 81 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Wood
FXUS64 KHGX 062102
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
The brief cooler and drier period behind the early morning frontal
passage yesterday is quickly coming to an end as the boundary
pushes back onshore as a warm front. This is quite visible in the
latest surface observations, which indicate a return to high 60s
dew points for most locations south of the I-10 corridor along
with a shift to ESE surface winds. Expect this trend to continue
overnight as the front pushes northward and onshore winds push dew
point values up into the 70s once again. WAA, along with an
increase in low stratus, will result in elevated low temperatures
overnight with values in the mid 60s in the northern zones and the
upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. The increase in moisture, and
resultant low dewpoint depressions, will also promote the
development of fog overnight which could lead to some hazardous
roadways for early morning commuters tomorrow.
Shower coverage will increase heading into tomorrow with the
northward push of the warm front along with the approach of a
robust upper trough from the west. Rain chances remain highest in
the western half of the area (i.e. west of I-45). Despite this,
rainfall rates should be fairly light and QPF should remain below
a half inch across the board. Highs tomorrow will increase a few
degrees, blunted by extensive cloud covers. Look for values in the
lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
On Friday an upper level low approaches from the SW U.S. This upper
low will track to the northeast through the Central Plains. An
associated cold front will push into southeast Texas beginning Friday
afternoon and push to the coast on Saturday morning. Scattered Showers and
storms will be possible both ahead of and along the frontal boundary.
Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front with high temperatures
generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s and low temperatures from the
upper 50s to the upper 60s this weekend. There will be a chance for
some showers and storms on Sunday as well as an upper level disturbance
moves across the area.
A warm front will move north through the area on Monday with onshore flow
returning. High pressure aloft will result in little chances of rain early
next week. A significant cold front is expected around mid-week which
will bring another chance of showers and storms and cooler temperatures
for the end of next week.
Concerning Hurricane Rafael, the tropical cyclone is expected to
move westward from western Cuba reaching the central Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, where it will slow down and also begin to weaken due to
southwesterly wind shear. Rafael will likely meander out there
in the central Gulf being stuck in a weak flow pattern on Sun and Mon.
The tropical cyclone could also respond to some mid-level ridging
developing over the northern Gulf on Monday which would induce a
southwest movement toward the southern Gulf and Mexico early next week.
Either way, Rafael is not expected to impact southeast Texas other than
increasing wave heights from swells and elevated water levels and an
increased risk of rip currents this weekend.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Conditions will generally sit in the VFR to high end MVFR range
into the evening as a warm front pushes onshore, resulting in an
expansion of cloud cover. As such, we could see the re-emergence
of cigs near 2500ft before sunrise, especially along the coast.
Deterioration in conditions will occur overnight, with IFR cigs
and periods of fog expected between approximately 09Z and 15Z
Thursday. IFR cigs will improve with daytime heating. By tomorrow
afternoon, we will also see the return of showers to the region
which may prolong reduced cig/visibility conditions.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024
Easterly winds will prevail through the end of the work week. Light winds
will become moderate on Thursday night and friday. Rain chances
will increase Friday night into Saturday as another cold front moves
through the region and brings another period of northeasterly winds.
Swells from Hurricane Rafael are currently expected to increase
wave heights along with carry an increased risk of rip currents over
the weekend.
Wood
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 82 70 80 / 10 50 30 60
Houston (IAH) 71 85 72 82 / 10 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 74 81 75 81 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Wood
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
463
FXUS64 KHGX 070945
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Warm front and higher dewpoint air is moving back inland. Areas of
fog and drizzle are expanding in coverage...esp west of I-45 (and
moreso south of I-10). May need a short fuse dense fog advsy there
in the not too distant future. Isolated to sct shra and maybe an
embedded storm will be possible today near and to the north of the
warm frontal boundary. Otherwise, look for warm, muggy conditions
today with low cloudiness slowly lifting and scattering as the day
progresses.
Continued unseasonably warm tonight and again Friday with overnight
lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the 80s. Mid-upper trof
currently situated across the Desert Southwest will make some
gradual eastward progress. It`s associated front/dryline should make
its way toward Southeast Texas late in the day Friday and into the
overnight hours bringing with it a band of showers and
thunderstorms. Overall setup for severe wx looks fairly low, but
high PW`s between 1.5-2.0" will be resident in advance and some
localized heavy downpours can`t be ruled out. TS/H Rafael will
probably be situated 350-400 miles offshore to our SE, but other
than partially contributing to the higher PW`s across eastern parts
of the region, it shouldn`t be much of a factor for inland areas.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Saturday is FROPA day with a cold front pushing through in the
morning hours. Now stop me if this sounds familiar...but the front
will stall just off of the coast and linger around there going into
early next week. We just went through that with the previous cold
front! The cause is the upper level low providing the push for the
front will steadily track northeastward from the Central Plains up
towards the Great Lakes, so there`s not much left to push the front
further southward. As a result, chances for showers/storms and cloud
cover stick around into Sunday afternoon.
On the positive side, we will see some cooler temperatures with
highs on Saturday ranging from the low 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s on Saturday
night. The upper 60s/low 70s on Saturday night are a bit uncertain,
because it depends on how much moisture is pulled in from the
northern side of Rafael along the stationary frontal boundary
offshore. The good news though is that the front will be our shield
and keep Rafael to our south, so we are still not expecting any
impacts from Rafael other than increasing wave heights from swells,
elevated tidal levels, and increased risk of rip currents over the
weekend. Moisture from Rafael though is expected to keep broken to
overcast cloud cover along the coast on Saturday night leading to
above normal temperatures overnight.
Slightly drier air will be in place on Sunday along with plentiful
sunshine leading to decreasing rain chances and slightly warmer
daytime temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Partly
cloudy skies, light winds, and drier air on Sunday night should
allow us to cool slightly more with low temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Brief ridging builds in early next week as upper
level high pressure over northern Mexico expands northward along
with a return of onshore flow. This takes us on a warming trend with
high temperatures trending towards the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.
With rain chances remaining on the slim side, plenty of peeks of
sunshine, and 850mb temperatures around or above the 90th
percentile, I did bump temperatures up above guidance a little bit
for Monday and Tuesday.
Model guidance remains in good agreement on a strong cold front
pushing through Southeast Texas midweek with cooler and much drier
air filtering in behind it. Chances for showers and storms return
along the frontal boundary though, but we`ll take that for a return
to more seasonal temperatures. Not going to throw out any
deterministic numbers this far out, so let`s take a probabilistic
approach! As of right now, the probabilities for low temperatures
below 60F is 75% or greater for inland locations on Wednesday and
Thursday night. The odds are in our favor at the moment for some
sweater weather and I`m here for it! Let`s just hope that this trend
persists...I`ve been hurt before. Keeping my fingers, toes, and eyes
crossed!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog will prevail into the mid morning hours,
with just some gradual improvement in the late morning time period.
Spotty areas of dz/-ra might also be around, but better chances of
shra can probably be expected closer to CLL today. Expect ceilings
to lift into VFR territory early this afternoon areawide followed by
a gradual return of MVFR/IFR stratus filling back in overnight. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Some patchy fog around Matagorda Bay early this morning has prompted
a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. There is potential for Galveston Bay to
be added to the advisory as well if decreased visibilities become
more widespread. Visibilities may continue to gradually deteriorate
towards 6 AM, then begin to improve shortly after sunrise.
Southeasterly winds this morning will transition to easterly by the
afternoon and prevail going into the weekend. Wind speeds increase
to moderate Thursday night into Friday with conditions being
borderline for caution flags. Chances for showers and storms
increase late Friday/Saturday as another cold front moves through
the region and brings another period of northeasterly winds.
Wave heights increase to 6-9 feet by late Friday due to swells from
from Hurricane Rafael, which will likely necessitate Small Craft
Advisories in the Gulf waters over the weekend. Rafael`s swells are
also expected to bring elevated tidal levels and an increased rip
current risk over the weekend. Seas begin to subside in the latter
half of the weekend with onshore flow returning by early next week.
A stronger cold front looks to push offshore midweek bringing
moderate to strong offshore flow in its wake.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 71 82 64 / 40 20 60 80
Houston (IAH) 85 74 84 70 / 30 10 40 70
Galveston (GLS) 82 76 81 73 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 070945
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Warm front and higher dewpoint air is moving back inland. Areas of
fog and drizzle are expanding in coverage...esp west of I-45 (and
moreso south of I-10). May need a short fuse dense fog advsy there
in the not too distant future. Isolated to sct shra and maybe an
embedded storm will be possible today near and to the north of the
warm frontal boundary. Otherwise, look for warm, muggy conditions
today with low cloudiness slowly lifting and scattering as the day
progresses.
Continued unseasonably warm tonight and again Friday with overnight
lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the 80s. Mid-upper trof
currently situated across the Desert Southwest will make some
gradual eastward progress. It`s associated front/dryline should make
its way toward Southeast Texas late in the day Friday and into the
overnight hours bringing with it a band of showers and
thunderstorms. Overall setup for severe wx looks fairly low, but
high PW`s between 1.5-2.0" will be resident in advance and some
localized heavy downpours can`t be ruled out. TS/H Rafael will
probably be situated 350-400 miles offshore to our SE, but other
than partially contributing to the higher PW`s across eastern parts
of the region, it shouldn`t be much of a factor for inland areas.
47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Saturday is FROPA day with a cold front pushing through in the
morning hours. Now stop me if this sounds familiar...but the front
will stall just off of the coast and linger around there going into
early next week. We just went through that with the previous cold
front! The cause is the upper level low providing the push for the
front will steadily track northeastward from the Central Plains up
towards the Great Lakes, so there`s not much left to push the front
further southward. As a result, chances for showers/storms and cloud
cover stick around into Sunday afternoon.
On the positive side, we will see some cooler temperatures with
highs on Saturday ranging from the low 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s on Saturday
night. The upper 60s/low 70s on Saturday night are a bit uncertain,
because it depends on how much moisture is pulled in from the
northern side of Rafael along the stationary frontal boundary
offshore. The good news though is that the front will be our shield
and keep Rafael to our south, so we are still not expecting any
impacts from Rafael other than increasing wave heights from swells,
elevated tidal levels, and increased risk of rip currents over the
weekend. Moisture from Rafael though is expected to keep broken to
overcast cloud cover along the coast on Saturday night leading to
above normal temperatures overnight.
Slightly drier air will be in place on Sunday along with plentiful
sunshine leading to decreasing rain chances and slightly warmer
daytime temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Partly
cloudy skies, light winds, and drier air on Sunday night should
allow us to cool slightly more with low temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Brief ridging builds in early next week as upper
level high pressure over northern Mexico expands northward along
with a return of onshore flow. This takes us on a warming trend with
high temperatures trending towards the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.
With rain chances remaining on the slim side, plenty of peeks of
sunshine, and 850mb temperatures around or above the 90th
percentile, I did bump temperatures up above guidance a little bit
for Monday and Tuesday.
Model guidance remains in good agreement on a strong cold front
pushing through Southeast Texas midweek with cooler and much drier
air filtering in behind it. Chances for showers and storms return
along the frontal boundary though, but we`ll take that for a return
to more seasonal temperatures. Not going to throw out any
deterministic numbers this far out, so let`s take a probabilistic
approach! As of right now, the probabilities for low temperatures
below 60F is 75% or greater for inland locations on Wednesday and
Thursday night. The odds are in our favor at the moment for some
sweater weather and I`m here for it! Let`s just hope that this trend
persists...I`ve been hurt before. Keeping my fingers, toes, and eyes
crossed!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog will prevail into the mid morning hours,
with just some gradual improvement in the late morning time period.
Spotty areas of dz/-ra might also be around, but better chances of
shra can probably be expected closer to CLL today. Expect ceilings
to lift into VFR territory early this afternoon areawide followed by
a gradual return of MVFR/IFR stratus filling back in overnight. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024
Some patchy fog around Matagorda Bay early this morning has prompted
a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. There is potential for Galveston Bay to
be added to the advisory as well if decreased visibilities become
more widespread. Visibilities may continue to gradually deteriorate
towards 6 AM, then begin to improve shortly after sunrise.
Southeasterly winds this morning will transition to easterly by the
afternoon and prevail going into the weekend. Wind speeds increase
to moderate Thursday night into Friday with conditions being
borderline for caution flags. Chances for showers and storms
increase late Friday/Saturday as another cold front moves through
the region and brings another period of northeasterly winds.
Wave heights increase to 6-9 feet by late Friday due to swells from
from Hurricane Rafael, which will likely necessitate Small Craft
Advisories in the Gulf waters over the weekend. Rafael`s swells are
also expected to bring elevated tidal levels and an increased rip
current risk over the weekend. Seas begin to subside in the latter
half of the weekend with onshore flow returning by early next week.
A stronger cold front looks to push offshore midweek bringing
moderate to strong offshore flow in its wake.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 71 82 64 / 40 20 60 80
Houston (IAH) 85 74 84 70 / 30 10 40 70
Galveston (GLS) 82 76 81 73 / 0 10 30 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
From Larry Cosgrove...
Blocking Signatures At High Latitudes Do Not Always Translate To Arctic Intrusions....
But a -NAO signature showing up across Greenland and the Davis Strait may shake the pattern up enough to allow for buckling of the jet stream. If a ridge at high latitudes occurs by itself, there may or may not be a corresponding cAk regime build-up that would have a mechanism to move southward. All that shows currently is a tendency for strong storms digging into the West. What follows is a cool or cold western North America against a warm central/eastern continental set-up. In order for a more likely colder scenario to the right of the Rocky Mountains, other positions such as -EPO, +PNA and -AO ridge positions must occur. It is possible that the emerging block heading into far northeastern Canada may at some point retrogress into a positive height anomaly allied with the negative Arctic Oscillation. That realignment might just do the trick allowing for colder plumes to reach the lower 48 states. But such a development and result is not yet evident on the numerical model guidance (although the analog method favors an eventual Alaska/Yukon to Baffin Island ridge complex.
There are still some tropical implications we should keep looking at. Hurricane Rafael will likely break up over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with its moisture pulled into a storm and frontal structure moving through the south central states. The main complication: very heavy rainfall and severe weather threats in parts of East Texas and Louisiana early next week. It is entirely possible that a typhoon could arise from the convective field associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Phases 7, 8 over the equatorial Pacific Basin. Unlike the current Typhoon Yinxing over the South China Sea (headed for Vietnam), Invest 93W might head north and link/merge with the polar westerlies and vortex near the Aleutian Islands. Should that or some other disturbance transition into a "typhoon injection syndrome" case, then a major cold shot from northern Canada into lower latitudes of the U.S. will happen.
But do not count on that happening anytime soon.
Blocking Signatures At High Latitudes Do Not Always Translate To Arctic Intrusions....
But a -NAO signature showing up across Greenland and the Davis Strait may shake the pattern up enough to allow for buckling of the jet stream. If a ridge at high latitudes occurs by itself, there may or may not be a corresponding cAk regime build-up that would have a mechanism to move southward. All that shows currently is a tendency for strong storms digging into the West. What follows is a cool or cold western North America against a warm central/eastern continental set-up. In order for a more likely colder scenario to the right of the Rocky Mountains, other positions such as -EPO, +PNA and -AO ridge positions must occur. It is possible that the emerging block heading into far northeastern Canada may at some point retrogress into a positive height anomaly allied with the negative Arctic Oscillation. That realignment might just do the trick allowing for colder plumes to reach the lower 48 states. But such a development and result is not yet evident on the numerical model guidance (although the analog method favors an eventual Alaska/Yukon to Baffin Island ridge complex.
There are still some tropical implications we should keep looking at. Hurricane Rafael will likely break up over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with its moisture pulled into a storm and frontal structure moving through the south central states. The main complication: very heavy rainfall and severe weather threats in parts of East Texas and Louisiana early next week. It is entirely possible that a typhoon could arise from the convective field associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Phases 7, 8 over the equatorial Pacific Basin. Unlike the current Typhoon Yinxing over the South China Sea (headed for Vietnam), Invest 93W might head north and link/merge with the polar westerlies and vortex near the Aleutian Islands. Should that or some other disturbance transition into a "typhoon injection syndrome" case, then a major cold shot from northern Canada into lower latitudes of the U.S. will happen.
But do not count on that happening anytime soon.
This Fall sucks butt. I can't stand this weather.
Such a weird path for Rafael to go west across the GoM, then turn south towards Mexico this time of year.
Yikes the latest HRRR is showing over 7 inches of rain over here overnight/tomorrow.
Maybe a visit by Don to College Station. We could use another inch of rain!
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
867
FXUS64 KHGX 081158
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue today with highs in
the 80s area wide. A weak cold front, coupled with rain along and
ahead of the front will help to bring temperatures down into the 70s
for inland areas to near 80 across coastal locations on Saturday.
Lows for tonight and Saturday night will be in the 60s for much of
the area. Locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley could dip
into the upper 50s.
Diving more into the rain chances...a weak surface cold front in
association with an upper level trough will result in increased rain
chances today and Saturday. A strong subtropical jet, with
relatively strong winds through the mid-levels continues to draw in
moisture from the Pacific and across Mexico into Texas. This can be
seen on WV imagery from GOES-16. Moisture convergence appears to be
greatest over the Brazos Valley and north of the I-10 corridor and
with the approach of the cold front, should provide enough support
for scattered to numerous showers. Have gone with a 50-60% chance of
rain for areas north of I-10 as a result of this. Closer to the
coast, there is a slight decrease in the rainfall chances with PoPs
around a 40-50% chance.
Models do bring the front through the majority of the area by
Saturday afternoon; however, the ECMWF and GFS models have the front
stalling along the coast. Conditions dry out behind the front, so
expect rain chances to decrease as the day progresses Saturday.
Coastal locations may see showers linger, and experience warmer
temperatures if the front does stall before it gets offshore.
With the expected showers and storms for tomorrow, SPC has placed
the Brazos Valley in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of
5). The primary hazards with these storms will be the potential for
damaging wind and large hail.
In addition to the severe threat, some of these storms could produce
locally heavy downpours. As a result, WPC has placed an area along
and north of a line from the Brazos Valley to The Woodlands to the
Livingston area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive
rainfall. Elsewhere in SE Texas (with the exception of the
southernmost locations in the CWA (most of Matagorda and Jackson
Counties) there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
We`ll be on far drier outskirts of Rafael in the central and
eventual southwest Gulf into early to mid parts of next week.
Aloft, we should be under a mostly zonal flow on top of the ridging
over Mexico. NBM suggested temperatures looked a bit too low
given the pattern so we mixed in some NBM75 during the first part
of the workweek. Might not be enough, but unseasonably warm
readings should continue with lows in the 60s and highs in the
80s. Heading into midweek, a trough should track eastward across
the Plains and the ridge over Mexico should expand northward. This
should set up a more favorable flow for a frontal passage around
Wednesday. Not that impressed with temperatures in its wake (lows
55-60F, highs ~80F), but it`s something.
See the marine section for Hurricane Rafael info and hazardous
beach conditions expected this weekend. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
Widespread IFR CIGs being observed this morning, with a couple of
sites at MVFR/VFR. CIGs should become primarily MVFR this
afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing through the day. CIGs won`t show much in the way of
improvement, and are expected to become MVFR/IFR again during the
overnight hours into Saturday morning. Rain may result in a
decrease in VSBYs to MVFR levels. Winds will generally be light
with an easterly component.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
An elevated, long period swell from Hurricane Rafael in the south
central Gulf of Mexico will begin filling in across the upper
Texas coastal waters today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
offshore this afternoon through at least Sunday morning. Rafael
is expected to meander around the central Gulf for the next
several days...eventually weakening and moving southwest toward
the Bay of Campeche early to middle parts of next week. Elevated
swells, surf and tide levels will be the main impacts to the
local area.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through at least Sunday
morning for unsafe conditions. Despite water temperatures around
78F, swimming is not recommended along area beaches considering
large surf and a high risk of rip currents. There are only limited
lifeguards on patrol this time of year. With elevated water
levels, the lowest lying portions and roads along the Bolivar
Peninsula including the intersection of Highway 87 at 124, western
Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway and Surfside may see some
minor overwash around high tide times from wave run-up.
Otherwise, a weak front and associated showers and thunderstorms
will make it toward the coast overnight and Saturday morning then
dissipate. Dry conditions and moderate northeast winds will then
prevail into early next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 60 74 61 / 60 70 30 20
Houston (IAH) 84 69 77 69 / 60 70 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 81 72 80 72 / 40 60 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Sunday morning
for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 081158
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue today with highs in
the 80s area wide. A weak cold front, coupled with rain along and
ahead of the front will help to bring temperatures down into the 70s
for inland areas to near 80 across coastal locations on Saturday.
Lows for tonight and Saturday night will be in the 60s for much of
the area. Locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley could dip
into the upper 50s.
Diving more into the rain chances...a weak surface cold front in
association with an upper level trough will result in increased rain
chances today and Saturday. A strong subtropical jet, with
relatively strong winds through the mid-levels continues to draw in
moisture from the Pacific and across Mexico into Texas. This can be
seen on WV imagery from GOES-16. Moisture convergence appears to be
greatest over the Brazos Valley and north of the I-10 corridor and
with the approach of the cold front, should provide enough support
for scattered to numerous showers. Have gone with a 50-60% chance of
rain for areas north of I-10 as a result of this. Closer to the
coast, there is a slight decrease in the rainfall chances with PoPs
around a 40-50% chance.
Models do bring the front through the majority of the area by
Saturday afternoon; however, the ECMWF and GFS models have the front
stalling along the coast. Conditions dry out behind the front, so
expect rain chances to decrease as the day progresses Saturday.
Coastal locations may see showers linger, and experience warmer
temperatures if the front does stall before it gets offshore.
With the expected showers and storms for tomorrow, SPC has placed
the Brazos Valley in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of
5). The primary hazards with these storms will be the potential for
damaging wind and large hail.
In addition to the severe threat, some of these storms could produce
locally heavy downpours. As a result, WPC has placed an area along
and north of a line from the Brazos Valley to The Woodlands to the
Livingston area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive
rainfall. Elsewhere in SE Texas (with the exception of the
southernmost locations in the CWA (most of Matagorda and Jackson
Counties) there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall. Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
We`ll be on far drier outskirts of Rafael in the central and
eventual southwest Gulf into early to mid parts of next week.
Aloft, we should be under a mostly zonal flow on top of the ridging
over Mexico. NBM suggested temperatures looked a bit too low
given the pattern so we mixed in some NBM75 during the first part
of the workweek. Might not be enough, but unseasonably warm
readings should continue with lows in the 60s and highs in the
80s. Heading into midweek, a trough should track eastward across
the Plains and the ridge over Mexico should expand northward. This
should set up a more favorable flow for a frontal passage around
Wednesday. Not that impressed with temperatures in its wake (lows
55-60F, highs ~80F), but it`s something.
See the marine section for Hurricane Rafael info and hazardous
beach conditions expected this weekend. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
Widespread IFR CIGs being observed this morning, with a couple of
sites at MVFR/VFR. CIGs should become primarily MVFR this
afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing through the day. CIGs won`t show much in the way of
improvement, and are expected to become MVFR/IFR again during the
overnight hours into Saturday morning. Rain may result in a
decrease in VSBYs to MVFR levels. Winds will generally be light
with an easterly component.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024
An elevated, long period swell from Hurricane Rafael in the south
central Gulf of Mexico will begin filling in across the upper
Texas coastal waters today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
offshore this afternoon through at least Sunday morning. Rafael
is expected to meander around the central Gulf for the next
several days...eventually weakening and moving southwest toward
the Bay of Campeche early to middle parts of next week. Elevated
swells, surf and tide levels will be the main impacts to the
local area.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through at least Sunday
morning for unsafe conditions. Despite water temperatures around
78F, swimming is not recommended along area beaches considering
large surf and a high risk of rip currents. There are only limited
lifeguards on patrol this time of year. With elevated water
levels, the lowest lying portions and roads along the Bolivar
Peninsula including the intersection of Highway 87 at 124, western
Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway and Surfside may see some
minor overwash around high tide times from wave run-up.
Otherwise, a weak front and associated showers and thunderstorms
will make it toward the coast overnight and Saturday morning then
dissipate. Dry conditions and moderate northeast winds will then
prevail into early next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 60 74 61 / 60 70 30 20
Houston (IAH) 84 69 77 69 / 60 70 60 30
Galveston (GLS) 81 72 80 72 / 40 60 60 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Sunday morning
for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47
Opened up Rafaels track and was like WTF?
Rafael is saying “La tee da. Look at me. Giving yall a headache cause no one knows where Im gonna go! Not even me! La tee da! Maybe Florida? Maybe Louisiana? Maybe Mexico? Maybe Ill just dance in the GOM till I die! La tee da!”
Rafael is saying “La tee da. Look at me. Giving yall a headache cause no one knows where Im gonna go! Not even me! La tee da! Maybe Florida? Maybe Louisiana? Maybe Mexico? Maybe Ill just dance in the GOM till I die! La tee da!”
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
It’s not every day when the front has such a north-south orientation. On Satellite loops, you can see the cold air just plowing down the Rio Grande south of Del Rio.
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