October Weather Discussion. When Will Rain Return?

[srainhoutx]

With that said, the Euro does suggest a big Upper Low to the W at hour 240, so it may not be too far fetched...

[Mr. T]

Why do so many awesome things have to be so far away?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

OKC first fantasy snow of the season in GFS world. We can hope...

It's pretty much a classic blue norther

On thursday, the 21st at 7am, it is below freezing in the TX panhandle, while humid and in the 70s here in SE TX. A large swath of rain and a line of thunderstorms are on our doorstep. By the afternoon, the line of storms is pushing through with very heavy rainfall and a wind shift to the north. After the line of storms push through, winds become gusty and temperatures fall into the 50s. By 7 am the next day, we are cold with drizzle and overcast skies and temperatures in the 40s accompanied by a gusty north wind.

Of course, this is all a wet dream at this point, and I'm just reading the model verbatim. This is very likely not to occur during that specific time period, but you wish it would at some point this fall. Our pattern, for the lack of a better term, has sucked since the end of July. La Nina falls are typically dry and boring, but you can still have a few fun events here and there. The past few cold fronts have been great, but you'd like to see a few rain drops here or there, you know?

I will say that this rather stagnant and dry pattern we are currently experiencing will likely be seen as a repeat throughout this upcoming winter

[Mr. T]

With that said, the Euro does suggest a big Upper Low to the W at hour 240, so it may not be too far fetched...

As long as it were not to lift NE ahead of the ridging across the SE, bypassing our area and taking all of the energy and rain with it

I will say that it is a good sign that both models are trying to show a much more active pattern heading into the last half of October. And really, you could almost expect that, since we're not going throughout this entire month with no measurable precip.

It is also nice to see both models trying to move the pesky GOA low out of the Pacific, with weak ridging in its place. Though a feature we can expect with great frequency this winter, at least any small breaks in such a pattern will be able to break the boring periods for us a bit. Hopefully we can get enough cold air to bottle up in Western Canada this winter with the potential at some point to break loose

[srainhoutx]

I really was hoping someone would start a long range thread for the Fall/Winter Season. La Nina years do offer a surprise or two from time to time and are not always warm and dry. Perhaps with the boring pattern we have been in, activity will once again pick up in the old Weather Forum.

[Mr. T]

but it is cooler than normal.

I'm not sure that is really the case

All moderate and strong La Nina Octobers since 1950:

cd75_108_248_156_278_18_57_27_prcp.png

Not really a strong correlation in any direction for that month, but the warmer than normal correlation really strengthens as you head closer to meteorological winter and wavelengths really increase


November

cd75_108_248_156_278_18_58_26_prcp.png

[Ptarmigan]

but it is cooler than normal.

I'm not sure that is really the case

All moderate and strong La Nina Octobers since 1950:

cd75_108_248_156_278_18_57_27_prcp.png

Not really a strong correlation in any direction for that month, but the warmer than normal correlation really strengthens as you head closer to meteorological winter and wavelengths really increase


November

cd75_108_248_156_278_18_58_26_prcp.png

Now, you say that, I remember La Nina falls are warmer and drier. I made this chart that shows there is a correlation between La Nina and warmer falls.



I remember Fall of 1999, which was La Nina. It was quite warm and dry. I also remember a lot mosquitoes at one point.

[TexasBreeze]

Mosquitoes are out at my place but not too bad. The wet Hermine t.s. helped produce more of the bugs before it dried out since then. The warm anomolies won't help as far as bug populations. Maybe there will be a couple or few strong arctic blasts in winter to make the weather more interesting? The cool/dry weather now is good camping weather!

[unome]

from link on HGX: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2010 ... _statement

just a snippet, much more info at link above:

"A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. NORMAL RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS TYPICALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTH OF I-10.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS ABNORMALLY DRY. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT OVER LOUISIANA EDGING WESTWARD AND IS NOW IMPINGING ON THE PINEY WOODS. THE RECENT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER EAST TEXAS. IF THE DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...THE DROUGHT MONITOR WILL LIKELY EXPAND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST. AS OF OCTOBER 7 2010...LIBERTY...SAN JACINTO..POLK AND PARTS OF TRINITY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES WERE CLASSIFIED AS D-0 OR ABNORMALLY DRY."

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed for some rain...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT SAT OCT 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SE TX SHOULD
STILL HAVE A COOL OVERNIGHT AND MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE BACK
IN THE 50S/LOW 60S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP
SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN
THE AREA AS MAX TEMPS GO BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
EVOLUTION. MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE MORE ON MONDAY AND MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISO/SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SLIDE INTO N TX ON MONDAY AS WELL AND
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NAM/GFS BRING SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX FROM CALDWELL TO
CROCKETT. SHOULD ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...COULD SEE SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH 1500 J/KG CAPE. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT A SLIGHT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK MAINLY LATE MONDAY. THIS THREAT COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. STILL THINK
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KCLL/KUTS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN INVERTED V IN THE LOW
LEVELS MON AFTERNOON. FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWER AND 500MB TEMPS
WILL BE PUSHING -13C WHICH WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
FOR NOW SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...FORECAST WILL KEEP
30/40 POPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE FOR SE TX. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES
AND ANY SEVERE THREAT. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN ITS
WAKE ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO NORMS. MIN TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
GUIDANCE WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino falls are wetter, while La Nina falls are drier.

[txflagwaver]

Well you can certainly tell the humidity is back...We always seem to have storms right at the end of October...for as long as I can remember.

[srainhoutx]

SPC has part of the area in a Slight Risk for tomorrow...here's hoping and time dust off those radars...

...ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RETURNING
NWD THROUGH TX AND OK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC HEATING
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
CNTRL AND ERN TX...ERN OK INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OK
INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MODULATED BY VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN MOST OF
WARM SECTOR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH 30-35 KT
EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

[srainhoutx]

Noticeable increase in moisture from a nice Gulf flow tonight. Something we haven't seen in two weeks. Here's hoping we see some rain tomorrow.

[wxman57]

Noticeable increase in moisture from a nice Gulf flow tonight. Something we haven't seen in two weeks. Here's hoping we see some rain tomorrow.

Well, I certainly hope not. Not that I don't need some rain, but they're finishing painting my house tomorrow. Rain would not be good with wet paint on the house.

[svrwx0503]

A look at the 00z soundings from both CRP and LCH show moisture return currently confined to the lowest 1-2km with very dry air above that. Currently lower to mid 60 dew points reside across central and southern sections of southeast Texas. Moisture should deepen through tomorrow and we should see shower and thunderstorm development along the front which will be in north Texas. It looks like most of the rain will be up north tomorrow before spreading south across at least the central and eastern sections of the region late Monday into Tuesday. The quality of moisture return is a concern and with rather meager PW's forecast by the models, not expecting very much rain...but any rain would be a welcome sight.

As far as the severe threat goes, the will be the potential for some isolated severe storms up north tomorrow with downburst winds being the main threat.

[srainhoutx]

Noticeable increase in moisture from a nice Gulf flow tonight. Something we haven't seen in two weeks. Here's hoping we see some rain tomorrow.

Well, I certainly hope not. Not that I don't need some rain, but they're finishing painting my house tomorrow. Rain would not be good with wet paint on the house.

Bad forecasting. Who is that contractor?

[Mr. T]

Looks like a stormy go of things tommorow night into tuesday morning. Hopefully we can get a nice line of storms to push through and drop some much needed rain

[srainhoutx]

SPC still has part of the area in a Slight Risk with the update...

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ...

...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX AND WRN LA...

SOME REMNANT OF NOCTURNAL MCS ONGOING OVER NERN TX WILL LIKELY BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE ARKLATEX TODAY...FORCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND PARENT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE
OZARK PLATEAU REGION. WHILE SWLY LLJ WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL WEAKENING
THIS MORNING...MODEST INFLOW SHOULD PERSIST... ENCOURAGING
BACKBUILDING/PREFERENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN/SWRN FLANK
OF SYSTEM. CURRENTLY OBSERVED DEW POINTS OF 60-65 F WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL/ERN TX MAY DECREASE LATER TODAY
WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER PBL MIXING. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 12Z DRT SOUNDING/
SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.

THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS COUPLED WITH THE SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...AND INCREASING INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER-LOW APPROACHING THE
REGION SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL /I.E.
25-35 KT/ OWING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND VEERED
SURFACE FLOW...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS AND/OR STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

[wxman57]

Noticeable increase in moisture from a nice Gulf flow tonight. Something we haven't seen in two weeks. Here's hoping we see some rain tomorrow.

Well, I certainly hope not. Not that I don't need some rain, but they're finishing painting my house tomorrow. Rain would not be good with wet paint on the house.

Bad forecasting. Who is that contractor?

They were supposed to finish up last Friday. Had a 2 day delay, though. I see a line of storms already forming up near Dallas. That's the area to watch for any storms down here tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Good luck with the painting project, wxman57.