October Weather Discussion. When Will Rain Return?

[Mr. T]

12z GFS has backed off a little on the intensity of the cold. Should be a few degrees cooler than the last front and feel like it too, but from what it looks like, this won't be the front to get us into the 40s. Its still early in the game though.

The GFS is the only model that exists

And yes, we will reach the 40s next week.

[TexasMetBlake]

Been watching the extended and the gfs continues to advertise a significant front, strongest of the season yet, pushing into the region. The 540 thickness is all the way down to the Texas border with heavy snow for Kansas west into Colorado. This could be Denver's first big snow of the season. 850 temps collapse behind the front allowing a very chilly 1036 mb high to drop in.

Keep in mind this is in the way extended range:

GFS 240:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

GFS 264: ULL finally gets absorbed into the front and ejected. Not the heavy snow behind the front...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

GFS 288: 540 thickness drops way down to the border. Keep in mind that it is likely that all the precip. will have ejected eastward by this time allowing for optimal cooling conditions. No snow/flurries for Texas just yet.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

CHECK THIS LINK OUT! Shows heights down to 546

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png

[srainhoutx]

It appears the GFS is trending with the ECMWF concerning the Western trough and much cooler temps in the medium range...of course there is a Tropical feature also shown in the SW Caribbean at that time as well via the Euro...

[Andrew]

Been watching the extended and the gfs continues to advertise a significant front, strongest of the season yet, pushing into the region. The 540 thickness is all the way down to the Texas border with heavy snow for Kansas west into Colorado. This could be Denver's first big snow of the season. 850 temps collapse behind the front allowing a very chilly 1036 mb high to drop in.

Keep in mind this is in the way extended range:

GFS 240:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

GFS 264: ULL finally gets absorbed into the front and ejected. Not the heavy snow behind the front...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

GFS 288: 540 thickness drops way down to the border. Keep in mind that it is likely that all the precip. will have ejected eastward by this time allowing for optimal cooling conditions. No snow/flurries for Texas just yet.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

CHECK THIS LINK OUT! Shows heights down to 546

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png

Looks like we could have some chilly temps. All it takes is a front like this in the middle of December/January to unleash some mass cold. Like I said before while it looks to be a mild winter we should get some shots of really cold air. The only problem is moisture might be a problem. I just want this again:

[Andrew]

00z GFS continues to paint cooler weather:

[srainhoutx]

Cooler air is still on tap for arrival on Sunday. Could we see some upper 40's? Could be, but no rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Good time to take out the telescope.

[srainhoutx]

Front is making progress this afternoon across KS, OK, and points to the NE. We should see the front pass during the overnight hours locally and cooler breezes and a touch of cloud cover could make Sunday a much different day than what we are experiencing this afternoon...heading out to the pool for some much needed R & R...

[Andrew]

You can see the front on the ADDS Satellite. Also look at all that dry air over Florida. I guess it isn't going to be as wet as first thought.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[svrwx0503]

After the really nice cool weather through the middle part of the week, things will slowly return to normal as we will lie in-between west-coast and east-coast trough's/mid-level lows. Eventually we will see the west coast low open up and lift off to the northeast across the Rockies and into the central plains however, models continue to differ on the strength and timing of when that will occur. In the extended 12z progs, our next change for a significant fall front may come during around mid-month (10/15 - 10/16).

[TexasMetBlake]

I wore my new sweater that I got 2 weeks ago. 54 degrees is marginal for this thing, but what the heck, I risked it. NWS busted on lows though. Looks like they might be eager to get some cooler weather in here, too!

[Mr. T]

I wore my new sweater that I got 2 weeks ago. 54 degrees is marginal for this thing, but what the heck, I risked it. NWS busted on lows though. Looks like they might be eager to get some cooler weather in here, too!

Clouds rolled in from the disturbance over the TX Panhandle which held temps up a bit. We won't have any problems like that tonight, so we should all drop into the upper 40s, except for the coast of course...

[Ptarmigan]

We could use some rain to clear things out.

[Andrew]

No clouds tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-vis.html

[ticka1]

Any cold weather on the horizon? Or will it stay basically 80's during the day and 50-60's at nite?

[wxman57]

Any cold weather on the horizon? Or will it stay basically 80's during the day and 50-60's at nite?

I thought last night was pretty cold! We biked to Rice Villiage (Ruggle's) for dinner at 7pm and made the 1 hr ride home at 8:30pm. Pretty darn cold! Had heavy winter jersey, a coat, hat, full-finger gloves and leg warmers and was still cold. I miss July...

12Z GFS indicates low near 50 the next few nights then a slow warming trend. Nothing below 50 the next 2 weeks on today's GFS. There had been an indication of a stronger front near mid month on earlier runs, one that could drop temps into the 40s.

[texoz]

Arizona is getting hammered today with hail and tornadoes from a low pressure system. Where's that energy headed?

[Ptarmigan]

Less likely to see storms in a La Nina fall, but it is cooler than normal.

[Mr. T]

Why do so many awesome things have to be so far away?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Why do so many awesome things have to be so far away?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml

OKC first fantasy snow of the season in GFS world. We can hope...