September 2024

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 GFS says hold your horses on that

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 GFS says hold your horses on that

Western half of the viewing area doesn’t get much. If you want rain, we’ll need this to come in around Corpus or Rockport and move N or NW from there.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 good point, but stills clobbers houston on this run, CMC eventually pulls the remnants of the system into se texas and man does it hammer all of se texas lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 good point, but stills clobbers houston on this run, CMC eventually pulls the remnants of the system into se texas and man does it hammer all of se texas lol

I’m just glad we have something to watch now.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 agreed, the WPC QPF is starting to spread more inland with the 06z run that just came out, looking better for se texas, but still room for more improvement

[tireman4]

967
FXUS64 KHGX 061132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

With overnight rainfall retreating primarily over the Gulf, only
scraping the immediate coastline, it appears the threat for
excessive rain and localized flooding has ended, and so the flood
watch is being canceled a little bit early tonight, so we can
start Friday fresh...well, on the flooding front, anyway.

Because while the potential for flooding rains may be over, we
aren`t looking to completely dry out just yet. A low pressure
center continues to hang out off the Gulf coast, and will continue
to fuel widespread showers and storms over our coastal waters.
Some of this rain is still very likely to overspread onto the
coast at times, and isolated to scattered showers and storms
remain in the picture - mainly east of I-45 this morning, and
across Southeast Texas this afternoon. But hey - even if we`re not
entirely done with rain just yet, at least it appears that the
flood threat has diminished enough to drop the watch. WPC does
still identify a marginal risk for excessive rain along the upper
coast, the Galveston Bay area, and farther north up the Trinity
Valley towards Lake Livingston.

By late this evening, flow around the Gulf low should be backed
enough that some drier air will be filtering into the area, and
precipitable water should be falling below 2 inches. The diurnal
pattern this week has already favored rains retreating to the Gulf
overnight, but this will be a bit more definitive. This will be
reinforced as our much anticipated cold front makes its way in
from the north early tomorrow afternoon, and makes its way to the
coast through tomorrow afternoon and night. By the end of the
short term, precipitable water values should be below an inch with
dewpoints in the 50s for all but the island zones right on the
Gulf.

All this makes for very good news, if you`ve grown tired of this
humid and rainy pattern. Saturday should be dry, with decreasing
humidity and cloud cover. Temperatures in the afternoon are likely
to be higher than recent days due to the sunnier, drier
conditions and with the front a little too late to chop temps
off...but the lower humidity should at least help make the warmer
temps more tolerable. Cooler temps will be much more apparent
tomorrow night, as lows should be driven down into the 60s for
virtually the entire area, and even into the upper 50s up around
Crockett in Houston County. Only locations right on the water,
like Palacios and Galveston have potential to get hung up above 70
degrees tomorrow night.

Of course, this all comes with a price. Fortunately, that is not
my tale to tell. I will leave it to the long term forecaster to
tell you all about why you should not get too attached to
Saturday`s weather...

Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

Saturday`s front is expected to stall offshore on Sunday. Dry air
will continue to filter southward in the front`s wake, yielding to
a beautiful day with low humidity and highs generally in the 80s
and dew points in the 50s to low 60s. Areas near the immediate
coast may hold onto the higher humidity. But as of now, our
forecast shows coastal dew points hovering in the mid/upper 60s,
quite dry compared to most of the summer. While we enjoy our
beautiful Sunday weather, a tropical wave (see Tropical section)
will push westward from the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf.
An associated surge of deep tropical moisture will push
northwestward, interacting with the frontal boundary offshore. By
Monday, this front is expected to drift back towards the coast.
Much of the CWA could squeeze in another warm, low humidity day on
Monday. But near the coast, humidity levels and rainfall chances
are expected to increase by Monday afternoon. Unfortunately, this
is expected to be a harbinger of what`s to come for much of the
rest of the upcoming week. As the frontal boundary stalls along
the coast and deep tropical moisture conditions to pool into the
region, expect generally high rainfall chances and humid
conditions. The one silver lining will be the below normal
afternoon temperatures (~ low/mid 80s) due to the cloud cover.

Much like the last week, the best chance of heavy rainfall next
week will be over our southern and coastal counties. WPC has
placed areas near the coast in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of
heavy rainfall on Tuesday, while most inland areas are under a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4). The Slight Risk area also aligns
with the saturated antecedent soil conditions across our coastal
counties thanks to recent heavy rains.

Sorry the low-humidity air mass will be so short-lived.
Unfortunately, there are no strong signals for another meaningful
cold front anytime soon. But at least there isn`t any extreme heat
in the forecast either.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

Though not necessarily as high impact from a rain/storm
standpoint, still a bit of a tricky forecast this morning. NE
winds prevail, with gustiness to 20-25 kts emerging later this
morning. IFR/low MVFR CIGs should stick around to mid/late-
morning, though still a 30-50 percent chance it lingers into the
mid-day before finally lifting to MVFR for all terminals.
Smattering of showers prompting VCSH on the topline for eastern
column of sites, then again this afternoon with VCTS thanks to
isolated lightning possible. Without confidence in where these
small handful of strikes will be, paint with a fairly broad brush
this morning. Later shifts should be able to refine.

Finally, tonight, should see enough clearing for a return to VFR,
with stronger than typical NE winds persisting.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

An area of low pressure over the NW Gulf coupled with an
approaching cold front from the north will bring squally
conditions along with increasing winds and building seas. Winds
and seas are expected to peak on Saturday. The low has a slight
chance of developing into a tropical system. However, conditions
are not expected to change if it does manage to develop. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf and Bays through Saturday
evening. Areas 20-60NM offshore are under a Gale Watch on from
Saturday morning through the evening. Conditions gradually improve
by Sunday. However, the presence of a stalled frontal boundary
will likely keep the weather unsettled though much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area
of low pressure over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. There is a low
(10 percent) chance of the system developing over the next couple
of days before conditions become increasingly unfavorable. The
impacts are expected to be the same regardless of development. For
our neck of the woods, the primary concern will be the hazardous
winds and seas offshore and in the bays. Gale conditions are
possible over the Gulf waters on Saturday.

NHC is also monitoring a disturbance in the western Caribbean that
is about to move over the Yucatan Peninsula. The system will help
bring a surge of deep tropical moisture into southeast Texas next
week (see long term discussion). The system has a slight (20
percent) chance of development. At this time, we are not
anticipating more than increased rain and thunderstorm chances as
we head into the early to middle part of the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 88 63 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 72 88 68 / 40 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 73 85 71 / 60 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ370-375.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for GMZ370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[don]

IMG_0051.png

[Stormlover2020]

Haf has cat 1

[jasons2k]

Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.

I had the same observation and was going to post the exact same thing. I've have some parting showers today so I may finally top 1" from this "wet" pattern. It truly has been feast or famine because some areas got a lot of rain.

Looks like a short break before we start over. At least there are no longer any drought concerns, for now at least.

[Stratton20]

GFS is a complete gully washer for a good chunk of SE texas, CMC stalls our system in south texas sending in multiple waves of energy, id say heavy rain is looking like a pretty good bet across our neck of the woods, how much is yet to be determined, 12z euro will be interesting

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024

Isolated to scattered showers are moving southwest from the
northeast across SE Texas in association with the wrap around of
the area of low pressure over the NW Gulf. Maintained VCSH over
the next few hours across all sites, with thunderstorm potential
increasing in the afternoon owing to VCTS from 21-01Z. Confidence
has decreased in thunderstorm activity and rain chances will
quickly diminish this evening. MVFR ceilings will prevail with
potential breaks to VFR this afternoon. A frontal boundary will
push further southward tonight and bring drier air in its wake,
causing conditions to improve from MVFR to VFR north to south this
evening, halting MVFR ceilings along the coast through the
overnight hours (KGLS, KHOU, KLBX, KIAH). Expect VFR conditions to
prevail across all sites by mid-late tomorrow morning with
northeasterly winds increasing through the afternoon to gusts of
25-30 knots.

[mcheer23]

After looking at the 12z EPS. Might give 90L it's own thread soon.

[Cpv17]

The Euro is a lot different than the GFS/CMC. It keeps most of the rain out in the Gulf and in LA.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 looks like the WPC isnt buying the euro, they are a blend of the GFS/ CMC

[Texashawk]

After looking at the 12z EPS. Might give 90L it's own thread soon.

That doesn’t sound ominous at all. What’s it showing?

[869MB]

State Farm hung me out to dry after waiting 2 months to see if they would cover my roof damage. Infuriating since I could have had my roof replaced 5x over in thr time spent waiting on them, all while it never rakned. Now that I've got a roofer on my own, it's raining it's *** off everyday and I can't get the work done.

Not to pry or get off topic too much, but why exactly did they deny your claim for a full roof replacement?

Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.

I’ve had 3.4”. It can stop now. Go to your place and others who need it.

Of course I would get some rain on yesterday and today after I started whining about how dry it’s been in my neighborhood.

[869MB]

Not to pry or get off topic too much, but why exactly did they deny your claim for a full roof replacement?

Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.

They claim it can be dealt with by just patching it. Nevermind I have exposed plywood where huge chunks of my shingles and underlayment are just gone.

Lol they’re screwing you. We got a new roof last summer and said it was hail. No issues whatsoever.

Yeah unfortunately this appears to be a recent shift with the bigger home insurance industry companies of declining full roof replacements and only approving claims for partial repairs of roofs.

[869MB]

Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.

I had the same observation and was going to post the exact same thing. I've have some parting showers today so I may finally top 1" from this "wet" pattern. It truly has been feast or famine because some areas got a lot of rain.

Looks like a short break before we start over. At least there are no longer any drought concerns, for now at least.

Yeah it just puzzles the hell out of me how places located well to the north of me like Huntsville and Livingston can receive much higher rainfall accumulations and beneficial rains from offshore tropical low pressure systems than me here in Katy.

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile, I’m still sitting at 0.80 inches of rain in my backyard for the past 2 weeks. Yes that’s right, I haven’t accumulated one inch of rain throughout this entire “wet” stretch for the past two weeks.

I had the same observation and was going to post the exact same thing. I've have some parting showers today so I may finally top 1" from this "wet" pattern. It truly has been feast or famine because some areas got a lot of rain.

Looks like a short break before we start over. At least there are no longer any drought concerns, for now at least.

Yeah it just puzzles the hell out of me how places located well to the north of me like Huntsville and Livingston can receive much higher rainfall accumulations and beneficial rains from offshore tropical low pressure systems than me here in Katy.

I think cuz there’s been too much cloud cover and convective temps are found further away from the coast. That’s just my guess.

[brazoriatx]

Reading s2k and after 57's bust on beryl..I've just learned to scroll past what he says now. It's nice