Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall After Mid-September

[Ptarmigan]

Usually by mid September, the risk of tropical cyclone making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast decreases. However, there are no guarantees it does not happen. Also, since Cape Verde is winding down gradually and moves to the west towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, there could be a possibility this season could see a landfall. In fact, from 1870 to 2010 (140 years), 15 tropical cyclones made landfall on and after September 15th.

Code: Select all

Hurricane 3 (Indianola Hurricane of 1875)	09/16/75
Hurricane 3 (1882)	09/15/82
Hurricane 10 (1886)	10/12/86
Tropical Storm 4 (1895)	10/06/95
Tropical Storm 6 (1898)	09/28/98
Tropical Storm 5 (1938)	10/17/38
Tropical Storm 6 (1940)	09/23/40
Tropical Storm 1 (1941)	09/15/41
Hurricane 2 (1941)	09/23/41
Hurricane 10 (1949)	10/04/49
Cindy	09/17/63
Felice	09/15/70
Jerry	10/15/89
Ivan	09/23/04
Rita	09/24/05

Total
15 Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Hurricanes (Non-Major)
1882 Hurricane 3
1886 Hurricane 10
1963 Cindy
1989 Jerry

Major Hurricanes
1875 Indianola Hurricane
1941 Hurricane 2
1949 Hurricane 10
2005 Rita

Latest Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Storm 5 (1938) October 17, 1938

Latest Hurricane
Jerry (1989) October 15, 1989

Latest Major Hurricane
Hurricane 10 (1949) October 4, 1949

Probability For Landfall On and After September 15th on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 9.3 years
1 Hurricane=Every 17.5 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 35 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 86.5 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 306.3 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 1225 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 804.4 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 5,359,4 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 42,875 years

This is based on averages spread out over 140 years. As usual, nature does not care for probabilities. There have been more than one tropical cyclone making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast on and after September 15th and that happened in 1941. Tropical Storm 1 (1941) and Hurricane 2 (1941), which would happen every 325.5 years.

There is a better chance of a tropical cyclone making landfall on and after September 15 than seeing single digit temperatures that happen about every 30 years. No tropical cyclone has ever been recorded to make landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in late October to November. There was a close call with Hurricane Jeanne in 1980, but got pushed away by a cold front in November of 1980. However, records are only kept up to 1851. It could be possible that tropical cyclones have made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in late October to November.

[Ptarmigan]

There is evidence prior to 1851 that WGOM has been affected by tropical systems. Very rare.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Look under
Hurricanes of the Sixteenth Century (pg. 12)
Hurricanes of the Early Nineteenth Century (pg.13)
Racer's Storm of 1837
A Hurricane Hit Galveston On November 5th, 1839

There is evidence that Galveston has been affected by tropical cyclones in November. Going back to 1527 to 2010, which is 483 years. I looked at storms that hit after October and later. Here is what I found. It is based on documented tropical cyclones that made landfall on Texas.

November 1527
November 1590-Possible landfall
October 21, 1631 Hurricane
October 2-6th, 1837 Racer’s Storm
November 5, 1839 Galveston Hurricane
October 5, 1842
October 17, 1848 Hurricane
October 2-3, 1867
October 12th, 1880 Tropical Storm
October 12, 1886 Hurricane #10
October 6, 1895 Tropical Storm #4
October 16, 1912 Hurricane #6
October 17, 1938 Tropical Storm #5
October 4, 1949 Hurricane #10
October 15, 1989 Jerry

15 Storms hit Texas in October and November.

Overall Probability
Every 32.2 years

October
Every 40.25 years

November
Every 161 years

Of course nature does not care for probability. Interesting to note that there are no recorded storms to hit Texas from 1851 to onwards.