Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[biggerbyte]

So bad there for those folks. Matt very well could just stay over land and dissipate while dropping tons of rain.

[srainhoutx]

Very worrisome for our Central American Neighbors...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND ACROSS HONDURAS...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 85.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder how much rain will fall out of Matthew, especially from ball of convection. Looks like a core rain event.

[Houstonkid]

Not sure who the Met was but I had 2 coworkers tell me this morning that the morning Met on the local Fox affiliate was adamant that Matt would not be affecting the NW Gulf, I found that just simply amazing that he would do that. Odds are Matt will not be affecting us but there are way too many unknowns at this point to say he WON'T affect us.

[biggerbyte]

Not sure who the Met was but I had 2 coworkers tell me this morning that the morning Met on the local Fox affiliate was adamant that Matt would not be affecting the NW Gulf, I found that just simply amazing that he would do that. Odds are Matt will not be affecting us but there are way too many unknowns at this point to say he WON'T affect us.

They are simply watching the models. Nothing more. I swear they never learn. We are supposed to be having a hurricane in Florida and over the ne Gulf right about now. I'm glad that never materialized.

As far as Texas in relation to Matt. Until he is actually gone, anything is possible. So I agree with you.

[srainhoutx]

A very large circulation over Central America from Matthew...

[srainhoutx]

WTNT45 KNHC 251444
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010

THE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA OF STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB
THIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF
THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.

THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK
MODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW.

WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY
RAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE
TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 87.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 251736
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE...HEAVY
RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 260231
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

...MATTHEW BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 91.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF TIKAL GUATEMALA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY
LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
EVEN AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES. IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA REPORTED 6.42 INCHES...
163 MM...OF RAINFALL...AND FLORES GUATEMALA REPORTED 6.10 INCHES
...155 MM.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

Still causing problems...

[sambucol]

Is it about to enter the BOC?

[unome]

discussion #13 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al ... .013.shtml?

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NO MORE THAN 20
KT. MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT
OF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO
48 HOURS OR SOONER.

EVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.4N 92.9W 20 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.4N 93.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.2N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 93.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

[srainhoutx]

Seeing reports of 1000 dead in Southern Mexico from remnants of Matthew.