Hurricane Beryl

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize
with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and
strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall. However,
dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the
intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded
eyewall structure. While the central pressure reported by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there
hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity
remains 55 kt.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm. All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by
showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and
higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent
a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a
somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall
timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for
near rapid intensification through landfall.

Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt. The storm should
turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle
Texas coast early on Monday before dawn. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one through landfall. After Beryl moves
inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late
tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term
track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a
blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight
through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas
Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding
is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.8N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 28.3N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 32.6N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 37.2N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 39.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[djmike]

Track did shift east a hair! Official track now goes through Ft Bend and extreme western Harris county! Still progged to be a cat 1 before landfall!

[djmike]

Oh wow! Wasn’t expecting this! Tropical Storm Warning just issued for Jefferson county Beaumont!

[Cromagnum]

Running out of runway. Strong TS up to a moderate Cat 1 wouldn't be nearly as bad and would be a good dress rehearsal for the rest of this crazy season to come.

[tireman4]

Beryl

[Stratton20]

Whether it becomes a cat one or not is almost irrelevant at this point, could have some really significant wind damage/ power outages in land, looks like the eye might go right over me, thats going to suck, dont let you’re guard down folks

[don]

The latest track takes the eye right over me.

[Cpv17]

The latest track takes the eye right over me.

And away from me. I’m now on the west side of it. I just want a few inches of rain at least. All I ask for.

[Scott747]

It's still tracking to the r of guidance. They didn't make much of it in the disco but for those of us in coastal Brazoria and Galveston counties not to mention inland to Fort Bend and Harris these shifts are meaningful.

Latest track is now almost between Matagorda and Sargent and just to the r of Bay City and l of Rosenberg.

[mcheer23]

You would think Ft Bend would be under a hurricane warning now with the shift…

[Cpv17]

You would think Ft Bend would be under a hurricane warning now with the shift…

Im sure it’s coming.

[don]

Don't forget how quick Nicholas a few years ago ramped up to a hurricane near the coast. And Beryl will have better conditions to work with this evening than Nicholas did that night he made landfall.I still wouldn't be surprise to see a strong cat 1.

[Texashawk]

Why do these storms always come ashore at night?? Gonna be a long night with the kids, and we are almost certain to lose power given our neighborhood history

[davidiowx]

You would think Ft Bend would be under a hurricane warning now with the shift…

Seriously. Not sure what the thinking is behind that..

[DoctorMu]

The latest track takes the eye right over me.

And away from me. I’m now on the west side of it. I just want a few inches of rain at least. All I ask for.

Same here. We'll be on the west side has Beryl heads through Grimes Co. to Madisonville.

[mcheer23]

You would think Ft Bend would be under a hurricane warning now with the shift…

Im sure it’s coming.

TS Warning was maintained after 4pm advisory

[Cpv17]

You would think Ft Bend would be under a hurricane warning now with the shift…

Im sure it’s coming.

TS Warning was maintained after 4pm advisory

I think they should drop it for Wharton and add Ft Bend.

[djmike]

IMG_2220.jpeg

Oh thanks Beryl. I dont need 12” of rain in Beaumont. (Per KPRC latest rainfall map).

[christinac2016]

The latest track takes the eye right over me.

Where are you again?

[Cpv17]

Watch it ride up 288 lol