Hurricane Beryl

[Andrew]

Is it possible Beryl still jogs east on landfall or is it a done deal for Matagorda area? Will strength also make a difference?

General movement during landfall will be to the north or NW

When will conditions start to go down hill? I gotta unload some crates with a fork lift tomorrow at 5 pm..

Sunday afternoon a few bands will start to come onshore but the majority of impacts will wait until Sunday night into Monday morning.

[Scott747]

Not sure if the first fix was a good one but if so its still tracking on the ne edge of guidance. Will know in a few minutes with the 7 pm update.

[Rip76]

992 reading?

[djmike]

Not sure if the first fix was a good one but if so its still tracking on the ne edge of guidance. Will know in a few minutes with the 7 pm update.

Is it on the NE edge of the guidance on the 7pm update?

[Stratton20]

so far the hunters are finding a more tighter/ compact wind core, that could really allow beryl to go off later tonight- tommorow

[christinac2016]

Please elaborate.

[Scott747]

Not sure if the first fix was a good one but if so its still tracking on the ne edge of guidance. Will know in a few minutes with the 7 pm update.

Is it on the NE edge of the guidance on the 7pm update?

Yes. It's already at 24.4 and it's not supposed to be at 24.8 until 4 am.

Now we need another fix or two before any confirmation....

[davidiowx]

It could be interesting tomorrow. Still think it will be hard for Beryl to really get going (fingers crossed). But it’s the GoM and we’ve seen it before. Cat 1 maybe low end 2 seems plausible now, but always expect and prepare for much worse. It will be interesting to see the track updates and if there are changes come tomorrow morning.

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like it is losing it's convection currently. The dry air factor doing it's thing!

[txbear]

Scott747 - Saw that Josh is in Port Lavaca. Interesting times the next 24 hours.

[davidiowx]

Dry air is certainly a factor right now. Could be a saving grace from anything major.

[Rip76]

Looks like it is losing it's convection currently. The dry air factor doing it's thing!

I would say dry air and DMIN.

[rselby0654]

Remember everyone that tropical systems strengthen at night!

[Scott747]

Scott747 - Saw that Josh is in Port Lavaca. Interesting times the next 24 hours.

He must have announced it on twitter I'm guessing?

I generally have to keep it a 'secret' till the final decision where to set up and he gets in place. Haha.

[davidiowx]

Looks like it is losing it's convection currently. The dry air factor doing it's thing!

I would say dry air and DMIN.

Yep, that’s the big question mark now. Why happens overnight and tomorrow

[Stratton20]

Dont be fooled by the satellite imagery, its DMIN , as for the dry air, its not getting entrained into the core but rather staying on the north side of beryl, but i expect beryl to continue to mix it out, it is still strengthening , tommorow is when the fast strengthening could occur though

[Ptarmigan]

Night is coming and hurricanes can undergo intensification at night.

[don]

0Z tropical models have tighten up around Matagorda.

02eL_tracks_latest.png

[tireman4]

Beryl Recon

[davidiowx]

Quite an interesting convo over on S2k now about recon data. Tonight will be interesting