Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

New track is now between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay.

Ya, it's not done moving yet. I suspect it will move again at the 4

Probably Rockport - the march north continues.

[tireman4]

Read the last sentence...


A stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

[Tx2005]

For the pro mets and experts in here, how worried should we be about heavy rain and flooding, especially as the track inches closer to Houston?

Seeing how the storm will only be in Central Texas 48 hours after landfall per the latest NHC track, some Harvey PTSD is rearing its head this morning.

[DoctorMu]

Not even close.

Why do you say that? It's gonna enter the Gulf as a strong Cat 1 or 2 and have plenty of time to strengthen to a major before likely hitting somewhere between Corpus and Rockport.

I realize Carla skirted the Yucatan and hit Port O'Connor, but this could be nearly the same path.

Carla formed in the SW Caribbean and became a very large Hurricane. Carla moved very slowly in the Western Gulf and actually stalled or looped S of Matagorda for 24 to 36 hours. Carla completely filled the Western Gulf and the closest comparison in size was Hurricane Allen. Beryl is a small Hurricane.

Carla also went through the Yucatan strains and not over the Yucatan. She made a beeline toward Galveston, rather than the curvature we will see with Beryl.

[DoctorMu]

For the pro mets and experts in here, how worried should we be about heavy rain and flooding, especially as the track inches closer to Houston?

Seeing how the storm will only be in Central Texas 48 hours after landfall per the latest NHC track, some Harvey PTSD is rearing its head this morning.

Beryl is not going to stick around for days in nearly the same place, like Harvey. I expect Beryl will move steadily from south to north and reach the Red River of more likely northern Louisiana by probably Thursday evening.

[Cromagnum]

I would be more worried about spinup tornadoes in feeder bands than flooding over here based on this mornings track.

[DoctorMu]

QPFs. Because of the smaller size and steady movement, local flash flooding may be the biggest concern rainwise. Keep an eye out on the coast in case there is strengthening before landfall with coastal surge and flooding.

[DoctorMu]

I would be more worried about spinup tornadoes in feeder bands than flooding over here based on this mornings track.

Could be a dirty side problem. I expect the tornadoes would be weak, but be prepared and have weather radio, streaming, info on to monitor.

[Scott747]

12z GFS is almost identical to the 6z....

Corpus area.

[jasons2k]

I think this storm is headed towards Corpus.

South Texas Storms agrees with you. ( another Houston pro met). It is looking like that or a little north or south

He is a trusted forecaster. No hype.

The curve/shape of the coast while Beryl is getting pulled by the trough is going to make this tough. I’m concerned about this storm trying to tighten-up as it approaches the coast and starts to hook to the right. I’ve seen this drill before. Not saying that’s the ultimate fate of Beryl but some of the potential elements are coming together.
Always makes me nervous when you have a storm moving into improving environmental conditions and a trough comes along from the NW to ventilate it with another outflow channel.

I have nothing new to add…this is going pretty much like I expected. It’s a short version of the nice write up above from USTropics. The exact LF location will be hard for anyone to nail because of the shape of the coast curving while Beryl feels the trough. The biggest take-away for me from the latest NHC forecast is they now have Beryl as a hurricane for 24+ hours over the Gulf now. Not a good trend.

Carla was in a category of her own. I don’t know if it’s still online but ImpactWeather had a good write up on this with their hurricane intensity scale, that factored-in the size of the hurricane in addition to wind and pressure. Carla topped the the list because she was huge. Even Katrina’s surge event didn’t measure-up to Carla.

[sambucol]

Should we board up in the Houston area for the winds or will that not be necessary?

[don]

12Z GFS near Aransas like the EURO

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[srainhoutx]

Should we board up in the Houston area for the winds or will that not be necessary?

You live out East in the Baytown area or Chambers County if I recall correctly. If it were me in that area, probably not. If there is a big change in track and intensity much closer to Harris County, it will still give you tomorrow and Sunday to protect your property.

[sambucol]

Should we board up in the Houston area for the winds or will that not be necessary?

You live out East in the Baytown area or Chambers County if I recall correctly. If it were me in that area, probably not. If there is a big change in track and intensity much closer to Harris County, it will still give you tomorrow and Sunday to protect your property.

That’s my area! I’ll wait and see. Thank you for your response!

[DoctorMu]

I just looked at the Houston Chronicle (aka Houston Comical) hard copy paper.

"Deadly Beryl Aims at Mexico." JFC. Houston weather media and the holiday skeleton crew. Fortunately we have a couple of days.

Jason't point is well taken. Beryl will be a hurricane for ≥ 1 day per NHC and over the warmer GoM waters.

Start making plans and be prepared just in case.

[Andrew]

GFS has a one-two punch for Beryl with moderate shear expected once it enters the GOM and then plenty of dry air entrainment across the Central Gulf. These two things will need to be monitored for how quickly they can be overcomed. That will ultimately decide how quickly Beryl can intensify. Most models indicate this won't occur until closer to landfall and that is why intensification doesn't really occur until north of 26N. Additionally, once Beryl makes landfall it will quickly begin to wrap dry air in from the north which could lessen the flooding risk some.

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[tireman4]

From the HGX NWS


NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
Here's the latest on Beryl. At this time, the main impacts for SE TX will remain increased rainfall (Mon/Tues) and the potential for tropical storm force winds (34kts) as early as Sun morning. Stay tuned and stay informed.
Quote
National Weather Service
@NWS
·
1h
10am CDT #Beryl update: There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely
Show more

[AtascocitaWX]

The key is how strong she is gets once in the gulf.
Her brief history has shown she is a fighter and overachiever. Cat 3 is very possible once she hits the gulf.

[Pas_Bon]

12Z GFS near Aransas like the EURO


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It’s not done moving North. I’m predicting Freeport. Once again….one does not want to be east of a recurving storm’s forecast track

[AtascocitaWX]

12Z GFS near Aransas like the EURO


IMG_0031.jpegIMG_0032.jpegIMG_0033.jpeg

It’s not done moving North. I’m predicting Freeport. Once again….one does not want to be east of a recurving storm’s forecast track

That's my prediction as well Freeport.
Overall anywhere between Matagorda Bay and Jamica Beach.

No I am not a met. Just my prediction.