Hurricane Beryl

[AtascocitaWX]

I trust alot of these Mets too, but Beryl is different. She is doing the opposite. If I was a Met I would hold off on locking down any landfills at this point .

[brazoriatx]

I'm liking the middle tx coast seems reasonable with a shift towards the north

[srainhoutx]

Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI

[cperk]

From Jeff Lindner ( 5 minutes ago)

7/3/24 AM Beryl
Powerful hurricane Beryl heading for Jamaica where significant impacts are imminent.
Hurricane watch for the eastern Yucatán and warning for the Cayman Islands.
Beryl is still a strong hurricane this morning but shear is impacting the hurricane and gradual weakening is occurring.
There have been so significant changes overnight with track guidance with questions still on how Beryl responds to a trough over the center plains this weekend once in the Gulf of Mexico…some of this will have to do with how strong Beryl is or becomes in the Gulf so there remain uncertainty. There are some indications this morning that the expected wind shear in the Hulf may be weaker allowing Beryl to become a bit stronger and we will need to watch for any trend here in the next few days.
Persons and interests in the western Gulf should be monitoring forecast closely for any changes into late this week.
Persons along the S TX coast south of Kingsville need to have their hurricane plan in place and be ready to enact that plan by this Friday.

This is who I trust Jeff isn't the cocky this is how it's gonna happen and to hell with all other opinions.

[AtascocitaWX]

Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI

What does it show?

[cperk]

Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI

Please do elaborate.

[Andrew]

Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI

Please do elaborate.

[Pas_Bon]

Surprised no one mentioned the 06Z European AI

From nearly every account I've read online about it, the AI models have performed remarkably poorly thus far to-date....not only with Beryl.

[Cpv17]

For those that want to look at the models for yourself, you can go to pivotal weather or tropical tidbits.

[tireman4]

Latest VDM, shows a closed eyewall again.

228
URNT12 KNHC 031414
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/13:48:20Z
B. 16.90 deg N 075.81 deg W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 955 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 98 kt
I. 221 deg 8 nm 13:46:00Z
J. 322 deg 76 kt
K. 222 deg 12 nm 13:45:00Z
L. 107 kt
M. 045 deg 12 nm 13:52:00Z
N. 135 deg 130 kt
O. 045 deg 12 nm 13:52:00Z
P. 13 C / 3055 m
Q. 20 C / 3044 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1402A BERYL OB 21
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 235 / 10 NM 12:44:30Z
LST WND 013 METERS 080 DEGREES AT 09KTS

[sambucol]

If we wait until Beryl gets into the GOM, in my opinion it is really late to make preparations to our properties.

[Cpv17]

If we wait until Beryl gets into the GOM, in my opinion it is really late to make preparations to our properties.

We will know more once it clears Jamaica.

[tireman4]

401
WTNT42 KNHC 031447
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman
Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of
Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.

While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to begin in Jamaica within the next
few hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight. Mountainous
locations in Jamaica are likely to experience destructive wind
gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize beginning
Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for portions
of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the
progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.1N 76.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 20.5N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 21.5N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 25.5N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Cpv17]

The NHC now expects this to be a hurricane in the Gulf. The 6z GEFS/6z EPS have a fair amount of members aimed at the mid to upper TX coast. So once again, if Beryl clears Jamaica still in relatively good shape then Texas will be more in play.

[Rip76]

Looking pretty ragged this morning.

[sambucol]

The NHC now expects this to be a hurricane in the Gulf. The 6z GEFS/6z EPS have a fair amount of members aimed at the mid to upper TX coast. So once again, if Beryl clears Jamaica still in relatively good shape then Texas will be more in play.

Thank you

[Scott747]

12z GFS exits the YP to the s at a pretty good clip compared to the 6z.

[Stormlover2020]

Keeps it weak weak

[tireman4]

Live Web Cams from Jamaica

https://www.youtube.com/live/h0E93nmFO1 ... W7ievTn7X7

[brazoriatx]

More swings till it gets in the gulf