Hurricane Beryl

[Cpv17]

Icon into tx/LA border...hmmmm

I’m honestly beginning to feel like Central Mexico is no longer an option. Looks like Northern MX to Central LA to me.

Seems more and more likely as Beryl could turn northward near the coast.

Yeah, but shear looks to rip it apart over the next few days so I’m not sure how much will be left of it by the time it gets closer to us.

[Scott747]

Strongest run yet for in the Gulf for the 12z GFS. Looks identical to the 6z HAFS-A I described earlier this morning.

Landfall near Baffin Bay with slow to steady movement wnw to nw into Centex and the Hill Country.

[tireman4]

What Scott is alluding to

[brazoriatx]

What Scott is alluding to

If that happens we would be on the dirty side..but seeing as Beryl is so small would we feel any affects from her if she came in that far south?

[sswinney]

What Scott is alluding to

If that happens we would be on the dirty side..but seeing as Beryl is so small would we feel any affects from her if she came in that far south?

Not much outside of regular wind advisories we have. Roughly 30 mph winds.

[TexasBreeze]

That track would provide beneficial rains for plenty of areas that need it!

[Pas_Bon]

I’m going to say…..Corpus, Galveston, etc do NOT want to be east of forecast at this point for a trending northward storm.

How many times have we seen late shifts eastward, and substantially? Way too many to recount. Katrina being an obvious outlier on the shift on Aug 26, 2005. That said, it still shifted east of forecast by about 60 miles even up to landfall

[jasons2k]

An observation in Hi-Res satellite loops (sorry for the low-res version below):

The convection out ahead of the storm, in front of the eyewall and CDO, is not getting sheared. I have circled the blowup convection that’s not getting sheared apart. Also, the NW eyewall appears to have beefed-up in the last several images.

This tells me Beryl still has a ways to go before seeing significant shear impacts.

Zooming further out, the bands out to the west and northwest are getting sheared apart but time will tell how much Beryl catches up to it.

[tireman4]

From Blake Matthews ( an old pro met contributor who some of us have known since he was in high school)

[tireman4]

GFS 12z Ensembles

[biggerbyte]

If you want a no BS assessment, in addition to Wxman57, there is a fellow on YouTube with a channel called weatherman plus. It also looks like David Paul is on to something as well.

As of today, a big push more north is unlikely. Northern Mexico, to South Texas are good bets. Maybe a little further up the coast. The trend continues to remain well south of Houston.

I personally still feel very strongly about waiting until a day or two out from landfall to make any outlandish claims. This changes every day..

[tireman4]

Blake Mathews
@BlakeMathews08
·
54m
TEXANS—another shift north with #beryl, making a direct impact on the Texas coast more and more of a possibility. The 12z Tue GFS shows a powerful storm further north than any of its previous runs. Anything from a tropical storm to a major hurricane is on the table. #tropics

[tireman4]

URNT12 KNHC 021657
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 02/16:31:20Z
B. 15.47 deg N 069.45 deg W
C. 700 mb 2627 m
D. 944 mb
E. 170 deg 15 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C13
H. 135 kt
I. 344 deg 8 nm 16:29:00Z
J. 064 deg 143 kt
K. 335 deg 9 nm 16:28:00Z
L. 134 kt
M. 062 deg 8 nm 16:34:00Z
N. 154 deg 141 kt
O. 059 deg 10 nm 16:34:30Z
P. 9 C / 3049 m
Q. 20 C / 3042 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF300 0902A BERYL OB 26
MAX FL WIND 143 KT 335 / 9 NM 16:28:00Z
;

[tireman4]

Flight Plans for tomorrow


HURRICANE BERYL
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 03/0000Z A. 02/2330Z,03/0530Z
B. NOAA9 1002A BERYL B. AFXXX 1102A BERYL
C. 02/1730Z C. 02/1815Z
D. NA D. 15.6N 71.6W
E. NA E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 43
A. 03/0000Z A. 03/1200Z
B. NOAA2 1202A BERYL B. NOAA3 1302A BERYL
C. 02/2100Z C. 03/0800Z
D. 15.6N 71.7W D. 16.4N 75.6W
E. 02/2230Z TO 03/0330Z E. 03/1000Z TO 03/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 75
A. 03/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 1402A BERYL
C. 03/0900Z
D. 16.4N 75.5W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON BERYL.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
HURRICANE BERYL FOR 04/0000Z, DEPARTING TISX AT 03/1730Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST INTO SUSPECT AREA AL96 EAST OF
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13.2N 58.3W FOR 03/1400Z.
D. POSSIBLE NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO AL96
FOR 04/0000Z.

[djmike]

If you want a no BS assessment, in addition to Wxman57, there is a fellow on YouTube with a channel called weatherman plus. It also looks like David Paul is on to something as well.

As of today, a big push more north is unlikely. Northern Mexico, to South Texas are good bets. Maybe a little further up the coast. The trend continues to remain well south of Houston.

I personally still feel very strongly about waiting until a day or two out from landfall to make any outlandish claims. This changes every day..

I agree with you. Just yesterday many mets were sold on a for sure central mexico landfall vicinity. Now we are talking south texas! Im watching some local mets in Beaumont trying to retract what they said just 24 hrs ago about the high pressure keeping us safe. Now we are looking at a complete opposite on the HP. Its never safe to call these things too early. You just never know. I remember a few TS and hurricanes that were aimed at south Texas many years ago and as they drifted closer, that cone drifted northward along the entire Tx coast line to make a Houston or Louisiana landfall! You just cant call it this early! Even what we think today will be the outcome will likely be very different by Friday. South again? More north? We just dont know.

[Pas_Bon]

If you want a no BS assessment, in addition to Wxman57, there is a fellow on YouTube with a channel called weatherman plus. It also looks like David Paul is on to something as well.

As of today, a big push more north is unlikely. Northern Mexico, to South Texas are good bets. Maybe a little further up the coast. The trend continues to remain well south of Houston.

I personally still feel very strongly about waiting until a day or two out from landfall to make any outlandish claims. This changes every day..

I agree with you. Just yesterday many mets were sold on a for sure central mexico landfall vicinity. Now we are talking south texas! Im watching some local mets in Beaumont trying to retract what they said just 24 hrs ago about the high pressure keeping us safe. Now we are looking at a complete opposite on the HP. Its never safe to call these things too early. You just never know. I remember a few TS and hurricanes that were aimed at south Texas many years ago and as they drifted closer, that cone drifted northward along the entire Tx coast line to make a Houston or Louisiana landfall! You just cant call it this early! Even what we think today will be the outcome will likely be very different by Friday. South again? More north? We just dont know.

Exactly. Rita and Laura are 2 huge examples here. I can't stand when broadcast Mets make such bold statements early on.

[tireman4]

12Z summary of the main/least inaccurate globals:

1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end

2) ICON TX/LA border on N end

3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border

[Scott747]

Both of the new hurricane models at 12z are very close together about 50-75 miles or so s of the border with landfall Sunday afternoon/evening.

[Scott747]

12z Euro is a little further s of the hurricane models.

Fairly good consensus emerging in the 12z runs and the northern trend ending overall, at least with this cycle.

I'd guess the 4pm track will remain the same.

[Scott747]

Of note.

I know there will be some focus on the 12 HWRF. It's an outlier and definitely will cause some concern. It and the HMON are what are considered 'legacy' models and haven't been updated since 2020. I believe the NHC still uses them in some of the multi model consensus aids but generally put more weight in the newer HAFS-A and HAFS-B models.