2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Rip76]

Cpv17 i can see why lol, obviously this is a waxk run by the GFS, but thats not the kind of steering pattern you want to see, it its like it got stuck in quicksand, nothinf to pick it up

Like Harvey-esq?

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 i can see why lol, obviously this is a waxk run by the GFS, but thats not the kind of steering pattern you want to see, it its like it got stuck in quicksand, nothinf to pick it up

Like Harvey-esq?

Not to that extent, but it does have 10-20” south of I-10.

[djmike]

Can you post a pic?

[Stratton20]

Here it is

[djmike]

Here it is

Wow! Thank you!

[Stratton20]

GFS has trend more to the north with 6-8 inches and houston and a max bullseye of 16-20 inches to the SW

[tireman4]

From HGX NWS AFD
TROPICAL...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A broad area of low pressure is expected to materialize in the Bay
of Campeche by Monday or Tuesday. Global deterministic and
ensemble guidance suggest a building ridge to the north will steer
the low west to west-northwest towards northeastern Mexico,
possibly moving ashore by Wednesday or Thursday. As of 200AM CDT,
the National Hurricane Center has given this system a 40% chance
of developing into a tropical depression over the next 5 days.
Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds are expected to
extend well north of the low. Therefore, southeast Texas can
expect showers/thunderstorms along with gusty winds (especially
near the coast) even if the center of the low remains well to our
south and tracks into Mexico. The steepening gradient between the
low and a surface high over eastern CONUS will likely enhance an
east to east-southeast wind fetch across the Gulf, resulting in
hazardous seas, increasing rip current risks, and elevated tides.
Sunday-Thursday rainfall totals are expected to range from 3-6"
along and south of I-10, with 1-3" for areas farther north.
Locally heavier totals are possible.

It is worth mentioning that computer models often struggle with
tropical disturbances in the pre-development phase. In this case,
a cohesive disturbance has yet to materialize. Therefore, forecast
confidence will be on the low side until a more cohesive
disturbance forms. Given the uncertainty, it is strongly advised
that you keep up with the latest forecast updates.

[tireman4]

From Matt Lanza Monday & Tuesday
We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

Wednesday & Thursday
We are beginning to see decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast, while our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner 06 14 24

[tireman4]

Ryan Maue 06 14 24

[Cpv17]

Ryan Maue 06 14 24

Typical June slopfest system. Almost all the rain hundreds of miles away from the center.

[tireman4]

Central American Gyre

[tireman4]

2PM June 14 Tropical Update: The area offshore the east coast of the US has a low (10%) chance of formation. In the SW Gulf of Mexico, this area has a medium (50%) chance of tropical development early to the middle part of next week. For more info visit https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/jpfvIFFcJf
-- National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 14, 2024

[DoctorMu]

From Matt Lanza Monday & Tuesday
We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

Wednesday & Thursday
We are beginning to see decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast, while our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.

That looks more realistic.

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza PM Update...

[DoctorMu]

Ryan Maue 06 14 24

Typical June slopfest system. Almost all the rain hundreds of miles away from the center.

Just the way I like it. We're on the dirty, rainy side.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall 06 14 24

The map above shows precipitable water for next Wednesday, which is a measure of how much moisture is in the atmosphere. Values north of 2 inches like we see plentifully in Texas and Mexico usually produce locally heavy rainfall. And indeed, the rainfall forecast for the Texas, Louisiana, and Mexico coasts is pretty significant.


Total rainfall through next Friday totals around 4 to 8 inches on the coast from Louisiana into Mexico, with locally higher amounts possible. Rain totals will drop considerably as you move inland. (NOAA WPC)
I will emphasize for our Louisiana and Texas readers that this will potentially be a very sharp rainfall gradient. In other words, you could see 6 to 10 inches of rain on the immediate coast in, say, Galveston versus a more manageable 2 to 5 inches or so in Houston. So the highest impacts will very likely be on the literal coast. Same goes for Corpus Christi, Brownsville, and the Louisiana coast. Mexico is likely to see more widespread rainfall due to terrain considerations and their proximity to the tropical system, whatever it becomes.

Beyond next week?
A second system may follow as the CAG begins to break down the week of June 24th. You can safely ignore some of the silly GFS operational model solutions for now. But it appears that something is there. That system may or may not develop, which is to say that we don’t currently think this is going to be a huge deal. That said, the wet pattern into Mexico and southern Texas is likely to continue into that week.


The rainfall outlook from both the GFS (left) and Euro (right) ensemble models suggests rain totals of 200 to 400 percent of normal near the Texas and Mexico coasts from next Friday through the following Friday, June 28th. (StormVista Weather Models)
With about 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall expected on the Texas and Mexico coasts, we may begin talking more about flooding for some areas. Heavy rains may also linger to the north. More on this next week.

We’ll take a breather tomorrow and come back on Sunday with the latest!

[Pas_Bon]

Guys and gals, we are running out of time to say it’s early. We are also facing increasing model consensus for what could be a major, slow-moving hurricane at our doorstep mere days after potentially flooding rains this week.

I know no one here needs prodding, but I’d recommend starting to plant the bug amongst your friends/family in the coming days to keep a very watchful eye

If the Euro falls in line with the rest, my concern will be pressed into action

[Texashawk]

Guys and gals, we are running out of time to say it’s early. We are also facing increasing model consensus for what could be a major, slow-moving hurricane at our doorstep mere days after potentially flooding rains this week.

I know no one here needs prodding, but I’d recommend starting to plant the bug amongst your friends/family in the coming days to keep a very watchful eye

If the Euro falls in line with the rest, my concern will be pressed into action

Are we, though? Lot of rain, yes. Hurricane, haven’t seen so much support for that. Regardless, message is valid: be prepared!

[Pas_Bon]

Guys and gals, we are running out of time to say it’s early. We are also facing increasing model consensus for what could be a major, slow-moving hurricane at our doorstep mere days after potentially flooding rains this week.

I know no one here needs prodding, but I’d recommend starting to plant the bug amongst your friends/family in the coming days to keep a very watchful eye

If the Euro falls in line with the rest, my concern will be pressed into action

Are we, though? Lot of rain, yes. Hurricane, haven’t seen so much support for that. Regardless, message is valid: be prepared!

Just about every model other than the ECMWF/Euro is showing the signal on or about next weekend