Yep, it’s too early to know much of anything. We could remain hot and dry or we could be dealing with a flood. Just have to wait a few more days to see how it unfolds.
June 2024
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 exactly! We will know more by saturday, gotta get that closed low first, then the models should have a good grasp on things
Hill country lakes could use the water but, be careful what you wish for. Early storms bring a different kind of worry than August/September storms.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Big shift North on the ICON 00z, thats an insane fire hose of tropical moisture getting pulled into the upper texas coast
Yep it shifted north significantly, bringing a tropical low or borderline Depression into the middle Texas coast.Stratton20 wrote: ↑ Big shift North on the ICON 00z, thats an insane fire hose of tropical moisture getting pulled into the upper texas coast
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-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
00z Euro is wonky with our BOC system, moves inland near tampico, stalls, comes back out into the gulf, does a loop and then heads generally toward the Texas coastline
I think y’all are seeing the NEXT system the last week of June
I think that one will be our problem.
I think that one will be our problem.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6025
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
152
FXUS64 KHGX 131136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
For better and for worse, attention for the forecast is focusing
on the potential for tropical development in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. On the one hand, keeping an awareness of potential
weather hazards is good! Staying aware is a key part of good
hurricane preparation. It`s also important, though, to keep things
in perspective, and evaluate everything in the whole context of
the forecast. There is no need to place excessive importance on
single model runs, especially for one deterministic model.
This is particularly true in the pre-development phase, where
confidence is quite low in the specifics of the evolution of a
storm (that may or may not even form!) that isn`t expected to even
exist for several days. Here`s what we can speak of with
confidence at this point:
- Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops or not, there
is confidence that next week will feature disturbed weather for
Southeast Texas, including gustier winds and increased
potential for rain and thunderstorms.
- Continue to monitor trusted sources of information, such as this
office and the National Hurricane Center, for the latest
forecast information. Consider new information in a broad
context. Good questions to ask yourself are: "Is this new
information complementary to what these trusted sources have
said previously, or is it wildly different?"; "What are the
trends in forecast changes? Are expectations getting more or
less threatening?"; "Is the confidence in the forecast
increasing or decreasing?"
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
stress of an incoming storm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
With surface high pressure sinking south into the Lower Mississippi
River valley...rain chances will be decreasing across much of SE TX
today and tomorrow. Lingering deeper moisture (PWs around 2") along
the coast/SW counties should help to fuel scattered showers/thunder-
storms with the seabreeze moving inland through this afternoon. For
the most part, rainfall totals are expected to average around 1/2-1
inch with higher totals in the stronger storms (1-2"). Any activity
that does get going today should weaken/be gone by this evening.
Elsewhere across the CWA today, the much lower/nil rain chances are
going to lead to warmer temperatures. And, with the wet grounds and
light winds already in place, heat index values up to 105F might be
possible this afternoon at some locations. Otherwise, highs will be
in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight (and tomorrow night) are prog-
ged to be in the lower and mid 70s (to around 80 along the beaches).
With the ridge aloft building in from the west and the surface high
staying put over the Lower Mississippi...POPs are going to decrease
even further tomorrow...even along the coast. So Fri should feature
very warm daytime temperatures across the region, with highs in the
mid 90s for most locations but some readings into the upper 90s are
going to be possible. Fortunately, slightly drier air aloft will be
filtering in/mixing down over the region with this pattern. And this
could help to temper heat index values a bit...with indicies likely
staying around 100F. Not *that* bad, but still within normal ranges
for SE TX summers.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Saturday - yup, still looks hot. Expectations remain for high
temperatures in the lower 90s in the cooler spots, up into the
middle 90s, and even some upper 90s in the hot spots. Peak heat
index values look to generally be in the 101 to 107 range. That
said...my forecast this morning is ever so slightly cooler than
yesterday. Guidance is suggesting that the mid-level ridging
doesn`t come in quite as strong, as a trough in the northern
stream digs down far enough to keep a bit of a weakness in place
over us. It`s not a big deal...but perhaps enough to keep my
concern levels about needing heat advisories at a lower level.
That said, it`s still looking hotter than mid-June averages, so
heat safety remains a consideration for outdoor plans this
weekend.
Heat may be a continuing concern earlier on Sunday - both from low
temps being hung up in the 70s to even around 80 degrees at the
coast, and into mid-day/early afternoon. With deeper moisture
anticipated already, we won`t mix out humid conditions as much in
the afternoon, and we could still see peak heat index values well
into the triple digits. Eventually, though, Sunday will also give
us our transition to next week`s stormier pattern. While shower
and storms will be nil to isolated far inland, we can expect more
scattered to widespread development over the Gulf waters and
coastal areas.
For the rest of the first half of next week, I don`t want to get
TOO too specific, as some details will certainly depend on the
evolution of our expected friend in the southwestern Gulf (more on
that in the tropical section below), but there are certainly some
more broad-brushed things we can say with more confidence at this
point. An inverted upper trough over the Bay of Campeche will help
keep a weakness in the subtropical ridge in place over the eastern
half of Texas. This may help play a part in the development of
surface low pressure, which may be tropical, but it will also help
keep heights down modestly for us, allowing for more daily
convective development over Southeast Texas. This is complemented
by a surge of a Gulf airmass with deeper moisture that will make
potential for showers and thunderstorms more likely through the
first half of next week. This will be an expectation regardless of
the status of tropical development in the Gulf.
Increased onshore flow is also a fairly high confidence
proposition, with our area expected to see a tighter pressure
gradient between whatever low pressure thingamajig is happening
over the Gulf and high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard.
Temperatures during the daytime will be seasonably hot, but a bit
cooler than the forecast for tomorrow/Saturday, thanks to
increased cloudiness and rain coverage. At night, however, we may
be looking at a different scenario - as onshore flow continues to
pump humid, low-level air into Southeast Texas, we may be looking
at overnight lows drifting higher into the 70s across the area the
deeper we get into the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Patchy fog/low clouds this morning should mix out shortly with VFR
conditions prevailing across much of the CWA. The exception should
be along/near the coast with seabreeze activity. Did add a mention
of VCSH in for LBX and GLS for this afternoon (15Z through 20-21Z).
Otherwise, a fairly quiet forecast. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Generally light onshore flow and low seas should prevail through
the end of the week. There will be a daily risk of isolated
showers and thunderstorms generally diminishing through Saturday.
Storms may produce locally higher winds and seas along with the
potential for waterspouts.
Most of the attention on weather conditions, though, will likely
be focused on next week, with a medium probability (40 percent as
of 2am) of tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Mariners should continue to monitor conditions in the
Gulf for next week, including the tropical weather outlook from
the National Hurricane Center, for the latest information. At
this time for our area, anticipate stronger winds and a
corresponding increase in seas along with increased potential for
showers and thunderstorms regardless of any tropical development
that may or may not not occur.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The area that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for
potential tropical development has had its probability of
development increased to the medium range - 40 percent - over the
next seven days. The timeframe for development is still next week,
and the probability of tropical cyclone development in the next
two days is near 0 percent.
There remains good consensus in the model guidance that some sort
of low pressure center, and possibly a tropical cyclone will form
in the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche, and drift west-
northwestward, eventually making landfall along the northeastern
Mexican coastline. Of course, even relatively consistent model
guidance must be taken with some more caution for a storm that has
not yet formed, as small scale changes in the formation process
could significantly change expectations.
Regardless of whether there is tropical cyclone development of
not, the broad impacts for our area are fairly consistent -
somewhat gustier winds due to a tighter pressure gradient, and an
influx of deep Gulf moisture to fuel more numerous showers and
thunderstorms next week. Continue to monitor forecasts from our
office and NHC into next week for the latest information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 74 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 90 81 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 131136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
For better and for worse, attention for the forecast is focusing
on the potential for tropical development in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. On the one hand, keeping an awareness of potential
weather hazards is good! Staying aware is a key part of good
hurricane preparation. It`s also important, though, to keep things
in perspective, and evaluate everything in the whole context of
the forecast. There is no need to place excessive importance on
single model runs, especially for one deterministic model.
This is particularly true in the pre-development phase, where
confidence is quite low in the specifics of the evolution of a
storm (that may or may not even form!) that isn`t expected to even
exist for several days. Here`s what we can speak of with
confidence at this point:
- Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops or not, there
is confidence that next week will feature disturbed weather for
Southeast Texas, including gustier winds and increased
potential for rain and thunderstorms.
- Continue to monitor trusted sources of information, such as this
office and the National Hurricane Center, for the latest
forecast information. Consider new information in a broad
context. Good questions to ask yourself are: "Is this new
information complementary to what these trusted sources have
said previously, or is it wildly different?"; "What are the
trends in forecast changes? Are expectations getting more or
less threatening?"; "Is the confidence in the forecast
increasing or decreasing?"
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
stress of an incoming storm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
With surface high pressure sinking south into the Lower Mississippi
River valley...rain chances will be decreasing across much of SE TX
today and tomorrow. Lingering deeper moisture (PWs around 2") along
the coast/SW counties should help to fuel scattered showers/thunder-
storms with the seabreeze moving inland through this afternoon. For
the most part, rainfall totals are expected to average around 1/2-1
inch with higher totals in the stronger storms (1-2"). Any activity
that does get going today should weaken/be gone by this evening.
Elsewhere across the CWA today, the much lower/nil rain chances are
going to lead to warmer temperatures. And, with the wet grounds and
light winds already in place, heat index values up to 105F might be
possible this afternoon at some locations. Otherwise, highs will be
in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight (and tomorrow night) are prog-
ged to be in the lower and mid 70s (to around 80 along the beaches).
With the ridge aloft building in from the west and the surface high
staying put over the Lower Mississippi...POPs are going to decrease
even further tomorrow...even along the coast. So Fri should feature
very warm daytime temperatures across the region, with highs in the
mid 90s for most locations but some readings into the upper 90s are
going to be possible. Fortunately, slightly drier air aloft will be
filtering in/mixing down over the region with this pattern. And this
could help to temper heat index values a bit...with indicies likely
staying around 100F. Not *that* bad, but still within normal ranges
for SE TX summers.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Saturday - yup, still looks hot. Expectations remain for high
temperatures in the lower 90s in the cooler spots, up into the
middle 90s, and even some upper 90s in the hot spots. Peak heat
index values look to generally be in the 101 to 107 range. That
said...my forecast this morning is ever so slightly cooler than
yesterday. Guidance is suggesting that the mid-level ridging
doesn`t come in quite as strong, as a trough in the northern
stream digs down far enough to keep a bit of a weakness in place
over us. It`s not a big deal...but perhaps enough to keep my
concern levels about needing heat advisories at a lower level.
That said, it`s still looking hotter than mid-June averages, so
heat safety remains a consideration for outdoor plans this
weekend.
Heat may be a continuing concern earlier on Sunday - both from low
temps being hung up in the 70s to even around 80 degrees at the
coast, and into mid-day/early afternoon. With deeper moisture
anticipated already, we won`t mix out humid conditions as much in
the afternoon, and we could still see peak heat index values well
into the triple digits. Eventually, though, Sunday will also give
us our transition to next week`s stormier pattern. While shower
and storms will be nil to isolated far inland, we can expect more
scattered to widespread development over the Gulf waters and
coastal areas.
For the rest of the first half of next week, I don`t want to get
TOO too specific, as some details will certainly depend on the
evolution of our expected friend in the southwestern Gulf (more on
that in the tropical section below), but there are certainly some
more broad-brushed things we can say with more confidence at this
point. An inverted upper trough over the Bay of Campeche will help
keep a weakness in the subtropical ridge in place over the eastern
half of Texas. This may help play a part in the development of
surface low pressure, which may be tropical, but it will also help
keep heights down modestly for us, allowing for more daily
convective development over Southeast Texas. This is complemented
by a surge of a Gulf airmass with deeper moisture that will make
potential for showers and thunderstorms more likely through the
first half of next week. This will be an expectation regardless of
the status of tropical development in the Gulf.
Increased onshore flow is also a fairly high confidence
proposition, with our area expected to see a tighter pressure
gradient between whatever low pressure thingamajig is happening
over the Gulf and high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard.
Temperatures during the daytime will be seasonably hot, but a bit
cooler than the forecast for tomorrow/Saturday, thanks to
increased cloudiness and rain coverage. At night, however, we may
be looking at a different scenario - as onshore flow continues to
pump humid, low-level air into Southeast Texas, we may be looking
at overnight lows drifting higher into the 70s across the area the
deeper we get into the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Patchy fog/low clouds this morning should mix out shortly with VFR
conditions prevailing across much of the CWA. The exception should
be along/near the coast with seabreeze activity. Did add a mention
of VCSH in for LBX and GLS for this afternoon (15Z through 20-21Z).
Otherwise, a fairly quiet forecast. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Generally light onshore flow and low seas should prevail through
the end of the week. There will be a daily risk of isolated
showers and thunderstorms generally diminishing through Saturday.
Storms may produce locally higher winds and seas along with the
potential for waterspouts.
Most of the attention on weather conditions, though, will likely
be focused on next week, with a medium probability (40 percent as
of 2am) of tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Mariners should continue to monitor conditions in the
Gulf for next week, including the tropical weather outlook from
the National Hurricane Center, for the latest information. At
this time for our area, anticipate stronger winds and a
corresponding increase in seas along with increased potential for
showers and thunderstorms regardless of any tropical development
that may or may not not occur.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The area that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for
potential tropical development has had its probability of
development increased to the medium range - 40 percent - over the
next seven days. The timeframe for development is still next week,
and the probability of tropical cyclone development in the next
two days is near 0 percent.
There remains good consensus in the model guidance that some sort
of low pressure center, and possibly a tropical cyclone will form
in the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche, and drift west-
northwestward, eventually making landfall along the northeastern
Mexican coastline. Of course, even relatively consistent model
guidance must be taken with some more caution for a storm that has
not yet formed, as small scale changes in the formation process
could significantly change expectations.
Regardless of whether there is tropical cyclone development of
not, the broad impacts for our area are fairly consistent -
somewhat gustier winds due to a tighter pressure gradient, and an
influx of deep Gulf moisture to fuel more numerous showers and
thunderstorms next week. Continue to monitor forecasts from our
office and NHC into next week for the latest information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 76 95 74 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 90 81 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6025
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting, but great information from HGX in the AFD. I agree with them wholeheartedly ( will get my ready Sunday)
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
stress of an incoming storm.
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
stress of an incoming storm.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CMC 12z did shift a but more to the north, ICON still brings the fire hose directly over houston, GFS and Euro not so much, lots to watch, and then possibly a 2nd western gulf system, this CAG setup is a doosy
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6025
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
135
FXUS64 KHGX 132047
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Attention for the forecast remains focused on the potential for
tropical development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. On the
one hand, keeping an awareness of potential weather hazards is
good! Staying aware is a key part of good hurricane preparation.
It`s also important, though, to keep things in perspective, and
evaluate everything in the whole context of the forecast. There is
no need to place excessive importance on single model runs,
especially for one deterministic model. This is particularly true
in the pre- development phase, where confidence is quite low in
the specifics of the evolution of a storm (that may or may not
even form!) that isn`t expected to even exist for several days.
Here`s what we can speak of with confidence at this point:
- Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops or not, there
is confidence that next week will feature disturbed weather for
Southeast Texas, including gustier winds and increased
potential for rain and thunderstorms.
- Continue to monitor trusted sources of information, such as this
office and the National Hurricane Center, for the latest
forecast information. Consider new information in a broad
context. Good questions to ask yourself are: "Is this new
information complementary to what these trusted sources have
said previously, or is it wildly different?"; "What are the
trends in forecast changes? Are expectations getting more or
less threatening?"; "Is the confidence in the forecast
increasing or decreasing?"
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
stress of an incoming storm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Isolated showers have been tapping into a shallow layer of moist air
today, with isolated showers continuing to pop up along the coast
this afternoon. Showers shouldn`t be very long lived, and not
expecting thunder due to a layer of very dry air sitting just above
the 925mb layer (essentially, dry air will entrain the updraft
before it amounts to much of anything). Expect any showers to taper
off this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
As the ridge aloft continues to build in from the west and the
surface high remains parked over the Lower Mississippi, subsidence
will continue to keep PoPs on the lower end (less than 10%). Mostly
sunny skies will provide little relief to increasing daytime
temperatures as highs reach into the 90s for most of the area.
Despite a dry air layer aloft, dew point values will still be in the
70s area wide, which will lead to a rather "soupy" feeling. On that
same note, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat
index values topping out in the 100-105F range for Friday.
Lows for tonight will be on the warm and muggy side as temperatures
drop into the 70s area wide.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
As most of you know, there is some activity occuring in the tropics.
This system is not expected to hit us directly but we should still
prepare for some possible heavy rain. Before I discuss some of the
details, please keep in mind that this forecast can easily change as
we still have a ways out before we see the storm`s effects. As of
now, according to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 40%
chance for this system to develop and impact the northeast Mexico
coastline early next week. However, the clockwise wind pattern
from the high pressure in Florida is predicted to push some of
that rain into our region. This means that locally heavy rainfall
could be possible with 3-4" south of I-10 and 1-3" north of I-10.
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding these rainfall totals,
as 4-6" could be possible (at this time these higher amounts are
predicted to occur along the coastal counties). As of now, the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a marginal risk mainly along the
coast for Sunday and Monday. It should be noted that marginal risk
is level 1 out of the 4 possible risk levels. However, with the
possibility for rain all of next week, make sure to be on the look
out for the potential of minor flooding. Winds are not expected
to pose much of a threat for the next week with an onshore
direction and a speed around 5-15 mph. Gusts are only expected to
get as high as 20 mph. Tropical moisture is expected to impact the
area as early as Sunday evening as rainfall chances increase to
20-40% (highest PoPs reside along the coast). The chance of rain
will continue through the majority of the week next week with the
heaviest rainfall occurring between Sunday evening and Wednesday.
On the bright side, with all of this precipitation and cloud
coverage, we will see a reduction in temperature! Expect a maximum
around 95F on Saturday due to the ridging aloft in our area. Once
the rain approaches, the rest of the week will have maximum
temperatures around 90F. The minimum temperatures will not be
heavily impacted by this system and will remain in the 75-80F
range.
If you would like more details on the possible storms discussed
above, please read the "Tropical" portion of this discussion. It
should once again be emphasized that this forecast is not set in
stone as there is still quite some time before Sunday evening. In
order to stay updated, please keep an eye out for our future
forecast discussions.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
VFR prevailing at all sites through the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as the sea breeze moves inland
this afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather with generally light and
variable winds.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
A tropical system is predicted to impact the gulf starting Sunday
evening and lasting through the rest of the week. This system`s main
impacts is expected to be heavy rainfall, elevated seas, and
increased risk of rip currents. This is expected to be a more rain
focused system making our winds not extremely high. Throughout the
week, winds should remain onshore with a speed of 5-15mph. Wave
height will be heavily impacted due to the system`s long easterly
fetch. This could make the heights of our waves reach 8-10 feet.
Caution flags and/or advisories are likely with the wind speeds and
wave heights becoming elevated next week.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor for the potential
for a broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche to develop into a
tropical cyclone late in the weekend into early next week. As of
this afternoon, the chance of formation over the next seven days
stands at 40% and the chance of formation over the next two days is
still near 0%.
Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development of a
tropical cyclone with this system, and deterministic/ensemble
guidance in fairly good agreement on a closed low developing in the
Bay of Campeche early next week. This could eventually result in a
tropical depression developing early next week and slowly drifting
westward/west-northwestward towards the northeastern Mexico
coastline. Regardless if this system has a name attached to it or
not, we`re still looking at an influx of deeper tropical moisture
being sent towards the Texas Gulf coast which will bring an increase
in rain chances next week. Keep in mind that some areas have not yet
fully recovered from the previous heavy rain events from earlier in
the spring. As of right now, model consensus points toward most of
the rain falling near and along the coast with ~3-6" forecast
rainfall totals near and south of I-10. We`re also anticipating
elevated tides and an increased risk in rip currents next week as
well.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates. These can be found from NHC at www.hurricanes.gov
and at our office`s website at www.weather.gov/houston.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 90 81 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Thompson
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Thompson
FXUS64 KHGX 132047
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Attention for the forecast remains focused on the potential for
tropical development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. On the
one hand, keeping an awareness of potential weather hazards is
good! Staying aware is a key part of good hurricane preparation.
It`s also important, though, to keep things in perspective, and
evaluate everything in the whole context of the forecast. There is
no need to place excessive importance on single model runs,
especially for one deterministic model. This is particularly true
in the pre- development phase, where confidence is quite low in
the specifics of the evolution of a storm (that may or may not
even form!) that isn`t expected to even exist for several days.
Here`s what we can speak of with confidence at this point:
- Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops or not, there
is confidence that next week will feature disturbed weather for
Southeast Texas, including gustier winds and increased
potential for rain and thunderstorms.
- Continue to monitor trusted sources of information, such as this
office and the National Hurricane Center, for the latest
forecast information. Consider new information in a broad
context. Good questions to ask yourself are: "Is this new
information complementary to what these trusted sources have
said previously, or is it wildly different?"; "What are the
trends in forecast changes? Are expectations getting more or
less threatening?"; "Is the confidence in the forecast
increasing or decreasing?"
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
stress of an incoming storm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Isolated showers have been tapping into a shallow layer of moist air
today, with isolated showers continuing to pop up along the coast
this afternoon. Showers shouldn`t be very long lived, and not
expecting thunder due to a layer of very dry air sitting just above
the 925mb layer (essentially, dry air will entrain the updraft
before it amounts to much of anything). Expect any showers to taper
off this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
As the ridge aloft continues to build in from the west and the
surface high remains parked over the Lower Mississippi, subsidence
will continue to keep PoPs on the lower end (less than 10%). Mostly
sunny skies will provide little relief to increasing daytime
temperatures as highs reach into the 90s for most of the area.
Despite a dry air layer aloft, dew point values will still be in the
70s area wide, which will lead to a rather "soupy" feeling. On that
same note, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat
index values topping out in the 100-105F range for Friday.
Lows for tonight will be on the warm and muggy side as temperatures
drop into the 70s area wide.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
As most of you know, there is some activity occuring in the tropics.
This system is not expected to hit us directly but we should still
prepare for some possible heavy rain. Before I discuss some of the
details, please keep in mind that this forecast can easily change as
we still have a ways out before we see the storm`s effects. As of
now, according to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 40%
chance for this system to develop and impact the northeast Mexico
coastline early next week. However, the clockwise wind pattern
from the high pressure in Florida is predicted to push some of
that rain into our region. This means that locally heavy rainfall
could be possible with 3-4" south of I-10 and 1-3" north of I-10.
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding these rainfall totals,
as 4-6" could be possible (at this time these higher amounts are
predicted to occur along the coastal counties). As of now, the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a marginal risk mainly along the
coast for Sunday and Monday. It should be noted that marginal risk
is level 1 out of the 4 possible risk levels. However, with the
possibility for rain all of next week, make sure to be on the look
out for the potential of minor flooding. Winds are not expected
to pose much of a threat for the next week with an onshore
direction and a speed around 5-15 mph. Gusts are only expected to
get as high as 20 mph. Tropical moisture is expected to impact the
area as early as Sunday evening as rainfall chances increase to
20-40% (highest PoPs reside along the coast). The chance of rain
will continue through the majority of the week next week with the
heaviest rainfall occurring between Sunday evening and Wednesday.
On the bright side, with all of this precipitation and cloud
coverage, we will see a reduction in temperature! Expect a maximum
around 95F on Saturday due to the ridging aloft in our area. Once
the rain approaches, the rest of the week will have maximum
temperatures around 90F. The minimum temperatures will not be
heavily impacted by this system and will remain in the 75-80F
range.
If you would like more details on the possible storms discussed
above, please read the "Tropical" portion of this discussion. It
should once again be emphasized that this forecast is not set in
stone as there is still quite some time before Sunday evening. In
order to stay updated, please keep an eye out for our future
forecast discussions.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
VFR prevailing at all sites through the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as the sea breeze moves inland
this afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather with generally light and
variable winds.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
A tropical system is predicted to impact the gulf starting Sunday
evening and lasting through the rest of the week. This system`s main
impacts is expected to be heavy rainfall, elevated seas, and
increased risk of rip currents. This is expected to be a more rain
focused system making our winds not extremely high. Throughout the
week, winds should remain onshore with a speed of 5-15mph. Wave
height will be heavily impacted due to the system`s long easterly
fetch. This could make the heights of our waves reach 8-10 feet.
Caution flags and/or advisories are likely with the wind speeds and
wave heights becoming elevated next week.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor for the potential
for a broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche to develop into a
tropical cyclone late in the weekend into early next week. As of
this afternoon, the chance of formation over the next seven days
stands at 40% and the chance of formation over the next two days is
still near 0%.
Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development of a
tropical cyclone with this system, and deterministic/ensemble
guidance in fairly good agreement on a closed low developing in the
Bay of Campeche early next week. This could eventually result in a
tropical depression developing early next week and slowly drifting
westward/west-northwestward towards the northeastern Mexico
coastline. Regardless if this system has a name attached to it or
not, we`re still looking at an influx of deeper tropical moisture
being sent towards the Texas Gulf coast which will bring an increase
in rain chances next week. Keep in mind that some areas have not yet
fully recovered from the previous heavy rain events from earlier in
the spring. As of right now, model consensus points toward most of
the rain falling near and along the coast with ~3-6" forecast
rainfall totals near and south of I-10. We`re also anticipating
elevated tides and an increased risk in rip currents next week as
well.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates. These can be found from NHC at www.hurricanes.gov
and at our office`s website at www.weather.gov/houston.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 90 81 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Thompson
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Thompson
-
Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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FWIW big shift north on the 12 Euro AIFS, landfall as a tropical storm around Baffin Bay, Tx with heavy rain bands and tropical storm force winds in se texas, also keeps the fire house right over us through the end of its run
Also has another system approaching the lower texas coast after this one!
Also has another system approaching the lower texas coast after this one!
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
ICON 18z potentially showing a major rain event with a fire hose of a rain band potentially setting up shop over se texas fwiw
Can y'all post the graphics?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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18z GFS slowly trending toward the 18z ICON and 12z Euro AIFS, slightly further north system, but the moisture plume is now aimed more over central and se texas
Yep the heaviest precip is completely displaced from the center of circulation.It appears to be from a competing vorticity to the north within the overall Gyre.That's a very large moisture field with a massive area of very high preciptable waters (monsoon). Maybe this is what the ICON is seeing.
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I worry we will be looking at a major, widespread flooding event.
18z GFS, 18z CMC, and 12z EURO show SE Texas getting a back-to-back double whammy of tropical moisture.
18z GFS, 18z CMC, and 12z EURO show SE Texas getting a back-to-back double whammy of tropical moisture.
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Stratton20
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- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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While its still too early to determine, i will say the pattern showing up on models does favor several systems heading towards texas, but what most concerns me is the flooding part, yeah take the 18z GFS with a high grain of salt, but a key take away from that is alot of tropical moisture is headed for our neck of the woods, not just next week but maybe even beyond that too, the pattern is their in which someone could easily see a foot or more rain out of this, we just have to watch for trends regarding development and tracks, so far guidance has started to shift everything north, lots to watch , just my two cents
I can see this as a Tropical Storm Arlene type event. Heavy rain near the center and along the outer bands.
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Stratton20
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18z Euro AIFS has this system coming in around Rockport now
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