May 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Stratton20
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Looks like the 12z GFS shows an active pattern potentially starting next week and beyond with multiple stalled frontal bounderies and disturbances moving across the state
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 18, 2024 11:48 am Looks like the 12z GFS shows an active pattern potentially starting next week and beyond with multiple stalled frontal bounderies and disturbances moving across the state
I’m sure it’ll stay north of me again lol with all the rain around lately I’ve only managed to pick up about 1.25” in the past few weeks.
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don
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I honestly think the damage locally was worse than from Ike.Trees and power lines/poles are down everywhere and massive trees have went through several roofs in the Heights area.Many of these trees survived Ike but did not survive this storm. I still have more pictures believe it or not. There is literally damage on every block.

This active pattern looks to continue especially north of I-10 hopefully we don’t see anymore wind damage or derecho events this season.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat May 18, 2024 2:54 pm I honestly think the damage locally was worse than from Ike.Trees and power lines/poles are down everywhere and massive trees have went through several roofs in the Heights area.Many of these trees survived Ike but did not survive this storm. I still have more pictures believe it or not. There is literally damage on every block.

This active pattern looks to continue especially north of I-10 hopefully we don’t see anymore wind damage or derecho events this season.
Well Ike hit the east side a lot harder than the west side. Overall, I’ve heard it was the worst damage since Alicia from a wind storm.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 18, 2024 3:41 pm
don wrote: Sat May 18, 2024 2:54 pm I honestly think the damage locally was worse than from Ike.Trees and power lines/poles are down everywhere and massive trees have went through several roofs in the Heights area.Many of these trees survived Ike but did not survive this storm. I still have more pictures believe it or not. There is literally damage on every block.

This active pattern looks to continue especially north of I-10 hopefully we don’t see anymore wind damage or derecho events this season.
Well Ike hit the east side a lot harder than the west side. Overall, I’ve heard it was the worst damage since Alicia from a wind storm.
I was on the east side during Ike and was in the eyewall. HGX has confirmed winds were up to 100mph downtown with this event, Ike did not produce those kind of winds anywhere inland in the HOUSTON metro area atleast . Ike “only” produced gust in the 80s for most areas outside of the immediate coastline.
Stratton20
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I was on the western side of ikes circulation so i was spared, but i ended up waking up finding our neighbors trampoline in our backyard along with the entire back fence knocked over, it just makes you shudder to know if a line of storms can do that much damage, a major hurricane hit on the upper texas coast would be extremely devastating on another level
Stratton20
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Unfortunately im not seeing much of a dry pattern in noaas 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, still favor normal to above normal precipitation across our neck of the woods
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tireman4
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Tornado Pictures in Cypress
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat May 18, 2024 4:15 pm Unfortunately im not seeing much of a dry pattern in noaas 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, still favor normal to above normal precipitation across our neck of the woods
Looks like most of the rain should stay north of here as of right now. Operationals look pretty dry for southeast Texas.
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tireman4
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From Matt Lanza
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tireman4 wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 9:57 am From Matt Lanza
The same Matt Lanza who said the models whiffed on the storms the other day about 3 hours too early.
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 12:54 pm
tireman4 wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 9:57 am From Matt Lanza
The same Matt Lanza who said the models whiffed on the storms the other day about 3 hours too early.

Let me say this. First, I am not a meteorologist, but it is not an exact science. Even in this say of advanced computing, mistakes can still be made. He has a BS in Meteorology from Rutgers, so I respect his understanding of the science ( pro met). Second, it threw many a pro met ( this system) . Some were surprised by the intensity. Third, I posted the warm temperatures today, nothing controversial.
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Katdaddy
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Well stated Tireman4 and I also have much respect for Matt. On a side note, I look at this derecho as awareness of the upcoming hurricane season for the general public.
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, the active pattern later this week is Hwy 79 (Hearne to Buffalo) and north. We *might* see a brief shower in CLL...no one south of Hwy 1*5 should see rain.


Local KBTX Weather has a 20% chance on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. NWS didn't even bother.

I think we could see this scenario a lot this summer as SETX bobs near the top side of the ridge.

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Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun May 19, 2024 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Katdaddy wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 1:16 pm Well stated Tireman4 and I also have much respect for Matt. On a side note, I look at this derecho as awareness of the upcoming hurricane season for the general public.
Excellent point. That was certainly a taste of what could be to come...
Stratton20
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Noaa 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for above normal precipitation across the whole state, the heat ridge only looks to build in mexico, keep us on the northern side of the ridge, that might keep us from getting too hot but also allow rain chances to stay in the forecast, im really not seeing any impressive heat ridge showing in the models, which is a good thing lol
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don
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I finally just got my power back. I love my tropical cyclones but please nothing more than a strong tropical storm or category one this year. I don’t want to go through this again anytime soon.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 5:37 pm I finally just got my power back. I love my tropical cyclones but please nothing more than a strong tropical storm or category one this year. I don’t want to go through this again anytime soon.
Sorry if you mentioned this already, but did your property receive any damage?
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 5:56 pm
don wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 5:37 pm I finally just got my power back. I love my tropical cyclones but please nothing more than a strong tropical storm or category one this year. I don’t want to go through this again anytime soon.
Sorry if you mentioned this already, but did your property receive any damage?
No thank goodness outside of some tree limbs/branches and blown patio furniture. Some others were not so lucky around me as some large trees went through home roofs. Walking around only my part of the neighborhood every few blocks you see a home with blue tarps like you would after a Hurricane.
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DoctorMu
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NWS has added a 20% chance of rain for CLL on Thursday, but besides for that a hot but mercifully boring week.
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