May 2024

[don]

We may have to watch friday closely for more flooding as some of the mesoscale guidance is starting to show yet another disturbance moving in with more heavy rain behind thursdays system

I noticed that on the HRRR and FV3.

That is what i was referring to when i mentioned on Monday the possibility of more rain after Thursday from the frontal boundary still stalled over the area.

[Cpv17]

We may have to watch friday closely for more flooding as some of the mesoscale guidance is starting to show yet another disturbance moving in with more heavy rain behind thursdays system

I noticed that on the HRRR and FV3.

That is what i was referring to when i mentioned on Monday the possibility of more rain after Thursday from the frontal boundary still stalled over the area.

Yes sir, good call!

[DoctorMu]

We may have to watch friday closely for more flooding as some of the mesoscale guidance is starting to show yet another disturbance moving in with more heavy rain behind thursdays system

I noticed that on the HRRR and FV3.

Looks like along the coast - hope it works out for you.

[DoctorMu]

To quote Gomer Pyle: Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Some cells arrive early to the party.

[Cpv17]

To quote Gomer Pyle: Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Some cells arrive early to the party.

Lots of rain headed your way. Wouldn’t be surprised if you get another 5+”.

[DoctorMu]

To quote Gomer Pyle: Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Some cells arrive early to the party.

Lots of rain headed your way. Wouldn’t be surprised if you get another 5+”.

I'd gladly send it your way.

Save it for summer up here.

[Cromagnum]

Brooks and Dunn concert at the Woodlands tomorrow is going to be a mud pit.

[tireman4]

990
FXUS64 KHGX 161125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A mid/upper trough in SW CONUS will push into Texas today, enhancing
a mid/upper subtropical jet while increasing large scale lift over
our region. This lift will be further enhanced by shortwaves
embedded in the jet. Closer to the surface, the trough is enhancing
LL vorticity (sfc-850mb) in West Texas this morning. This LL
vorticity max / sfc low is expected to propagate eastward, roughly
along a warm front that is will to stall somewhere over our central
/ northern counties. LL shear is likely to increase this afternoon
as the LL vort max / sfc low approaches SE TX. HREF ensemble mean
850MB winds show a southerly LL 25-35 knot jet. Fcst soundings even
show ~20 knots of 0-1KM shear by afternoon. The 500MB mean winds
increase to 50-70 knots within the aforementioned subtropical jet.
Effective bulk shear by late this afternoon and evening is expected
to range from 50-60 knots across our southern counties to as high as
70-80 knots in our northern counties. In addition to volatile shear,
LL and ML instability will be increasing throughout the day. ML
lapse rates are expected to increase to 7.0-7.5 C/km while sfc based
CAPE is forecast to reach 2500-4000 J/kg south of the stalled
boundary. Though widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity is
possible during the morning hours today, the primary concern is
later in the day when all the aforementioned atmospheric parameters
are likely to instigate persistent deep convection near the stalled
boundary.

The time frame of concern begins around 2-4PM across our northern
CWA. This is when most of the CAMs are showing heavy thunderstorm
developing on, and moving eastward along, the boundary over our
northern counties. The HRRR even suggests the potential of a few
embedded supercells. This isn`t a huge surprise given the veering
wind profile and high bulk shear. Uncertainty exists regarding when
this boundary will begin to progress southward. Much of this
uncertainty hinges on the fact that the forward motion of the boundary
will be at least somewhat dependent on mesoscale cold pool processes.
Despite the uncertainty, the boundary will eventually push southward
towards the coast by the evening or overnight hours, taking its rain
and thunderstorm activity with it.

Before we get into Friday, let`s take a moment to talk about the
severe weather and flood risk today and tonight. SPC has upgraded
areas north of I-10 to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe
weather while areas farther south are in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5). Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.
However, LL shear parameters suggest some potential for tornadoes as
well. WPC has upgraded the excessive rainfall risk to High (Level 4
of 4) across our northern Piney Woods counties while our central
counties (north of Harris County) remain in a Moderate (Level 3 of
4) and areas farther south in a Slight (Level 2 of 3). Though
widespread rainfall totals north of I-10 are "only" expected to be
in the 2-4 inch range, antecedent soil moisture conditions coupled
with the prospect of locally much heavier totals have lead to the
moderate to high risk across our northern counties. HREF ensemble
max guidance indicate that 6-10 inches of rainfall could occur in
locations of training thunderstorms. In addition, it may not take
that much rain to result in flooding issues due to wet soils,
especially across our Piney Woods counties. Please have multiple
ways to receive warnings today and tonight. If you encounter water
covered roads, please turn your car around.

The aforementioned boundary is expected to hang around our coastal
counties on Friday. Meanwhile, a shortwave embedded in the jet aloft
is expected to introduce lift, allowing for the development of
showers and thunderstorms. Models vary regarding how much rainfall
will occur on Friday. WPC has placed much of our CWA in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Some of the guidance
suggests potential for heavier showers and thunderstorms near the
coast on Friday. Our ~40-50% PoPs at the coast may need to be
revised upward in the next update if current model trends continue.

In case you are curious about temperatures, afternoon highs today
and tomorrow are expected to be in the 80s. However, some of our
northernmost communities could struggle to reach 80 today. Overnight
lows are expected to range from the mid 60s in our northernmost
counties to low 70s in Houston and mid 70s at the coast. Friday is
expected to be another day in the 80s.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

This period still looks quiet/dry but increasingly warm/humid. Upper
trough axis partly responsible for the end of the week`s rain will
continue moving eastward and out of our area on Saturday. The state
will then be on the northern fringes of upper level ridging for the
rest of the weekend and on into the first half of the week. At the
surface, high pressure moving east of the area over the weekend will
set up a warm and humid onshore flow. High temperatures will respond
to these features by warming up generally into an upper 80s to lower
90s range. Low temperatures will respond too by starting out in an
upper 60s to lower 70s range on Sunday and Monday and ending up in
a lower 70s to upper 70s range on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat index
values by Tuesday or Wednesday could end up peaking close to a 103 to
105 degree range. Heat safety precautions should be taken.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Mostly VFR cigs with isolated showers expected this morning. Winds
at the surface will increase as the morning progresses. There will
be some enhanced low-level wind shear (20-25 kts) before these
winds begin to increase. Cigs will gradually decline. Widespread
MVFR is expected by midday. By the afternoon, the concern turns to
developing TSRA activity to the north. TSRA is likely to move
through our northern terminals this afternoon and into Houston
area terminals by late afternoon or evening. Gusty winds and hail
are a concern within any strong TS. low-level wind shear is likely
to increase to about 20 knots ahead of the thunderstorms. Storms
are expected to make it to the coast by the evening or overnight.
IFR cigs are expected in the wake of the TS/SH. There may be a
round of SHRA/TSRA tomorrow morning. Though uncertainty is high,
the best chance of this second round of TS will be near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An elevated onshore flow will persist through the end of the week. The
exception could be in and around any scattered storms that may impact
the waters later today and on into Friday. Highest rain chances are
anticipated inland later today and near the coast on Friday. The area
still look to be rain free over the weekend and into early next week
along with lower winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 69 84 68 / 90 60 20 10
Houston (IAH) 83 72 86 71 / 80 70 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 75 83 74 / 50 50 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-211>213-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams

[jasons2k]

Brooks and Dunn concert at the Woodlands tomorrow is going to be a mud pit.

For the kids out on the lawn, yep.

I didn’t realize they were still around. I saw them in ‘99 at the Astrodome (Rodeo). 90’s country music was great. Not the same anymore (like most everything).

[Pas_Bon]

This is the way I see this Summer playing out......

Most (rightfully so North of Houston) are complaining about the rain. Don't blame them for a second.
Many (south of Houston) are meh....could've used more rain, but at least it wasn't zilch.

We are all complaining about the mosquitoes right now, and for good reason. They are worse than I can remember in many years - if not ever. Horrible.

Come June/July, I feel like we will be begging for rain. I think it'll be another dry scorcher.
Unfortunately, I think our complaints will be answered - at least for some of us - by a hurricane this season. I hope my gut is wrong on this.

[DoctorMu]

This is the way I see this Summer playing out......

Most (rightfully so North of Houston) are complaining about the rain. Don't blame them for a second.
Many (south of Houston) are meh....could've used more rain, but at least it wasn't zilch.

We are all complaining about the mosquitoes right now, and for good reason. They are worse than I can remember in many years - if not ever. Horrible.

Come June/July, I feel like we will be begging for rain. I think it'll be another dry scorcher.
Unfortunately, I think our complaints will be answered - at least for some of us - by a hurricane this season. I hope my gut is wrong on this.

Welcome to my world...for 33 years in Texas.

[Pas_Bon]

This is the way I see this Summer playing out......

Most (rightfully so North of Houston) are complaining about the rain. Don't blame them for a second.
Many (south of Houston) are meh....could've used more rain, but at least it wasn't zilch.

We are all complaining about the mosquitoes right now, and for good reason. They are worse than I can remember in many years - if not ever. Horrible.

Come June/July, I feel like we will be begging for rain. I think it'll be another dry scorcher.
Unfortunately, I think our complaints will be answered - at least for some of us - by a hurricane this season. I hope my gut is wrong on this.

Welcome to my world...for 33 years in Texas.

Oh, I feel this. I grew up in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana....spent all my life (except for 1 year) south of I-10, either in Louisiana or Texas.
It's all the same crap.

[MH5]

Latest HRRR runs keep pushing the initial development out in front of the main line further south into the Houston metro. Going to need to keep an eye to our SW for that to pop here in the next couple of hours, but that has me concerned for our neighbors up north that have been hit so hard over the last few weeks. Could very well put them in the bullseye again for some very high totals.

[Cpv17]

Interesting that the HRRR actually has some rain now south of I-10 later this evening.

[tireman4]

Reed Timmer

[don]

I just realized that SPC has issued another ENHANCED risk for severe weather today mainly for damaging winds.There may be a very rough rush hour later today.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected
to increase across parts of central/southeastern Texas into
southwest Louisiana this afternoon into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible.

...Central TX to southern LA through tonight...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
north and central TX, generally along and to the immediate cool side
of a composite outflow boundary. Rich low-level moisture (100 mb
mean mixing ratios 16-18 g/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-9
C/km and large buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg) are present
south of the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized clusters/supercells. Thus, some upscale growth and
increased storm organization is expected from late morning into the
afternoon, as storms move east-southeastward along the
moisture/buoyancy gradient across central and southeast TX.
Damaging wind of 60-75 mph will be possible with embedded bowing
segments, while isolated very large hail will be possible with
supercells on the south flank of the larger storm cluster(s). A
couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations
and/or favorable storm interactions near or south of the composite
outflow boundary. One or more clusters/bowing segments could
persist into tonight across southern LA.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions currently across SE TX sites. SE
winds of 10-15 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS for today as a llvl jet
remains over our region. This afternoon, expect showers and
storms developing over portions of the CWA. A line of storms
developing along and near a boundary is currently making its way
into the Houston County border and is expected to continue further
south into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region this
afternoon and into the central portion (near I-10) sometime late
afternoon into the evening hours. Will need to keep a close eye on
this line given that some storms could be strong to severe and
will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and
frequent lightning. Periods of heavy rainfall can also be expected
and would result in IFR vis at times. The stronger activity is
still expected to occur mainly for areas north of the I-10
corridor, but areas south of it could still have iso strong storms
at times. Another hazard to note is the possibility for llvl wind
shear to occur at times. SH/TS are expected to dissipate or move
away from our region by around midnight CT.

MVFR cigs and VRB winds expected tonight into early Fri morning
for most sites as the boundary moves closer towards the bays but
could stall as it does so. For now we are expecting for most sites
to be under N-NE winds thru Fri afternoon with GLS/LBX possibly
holding on to the SE wind direction for the rest of the TAF
period. This would ultimately depend on where the boundary stalls.
Cigs are expected to gradually lift later in the day, but will
also depend on where the location of the boundary.

Cotto (24)

[Cpv17]

Reed Timmer

The conservative Matt Lanza isn’t very concerned about it and doesn’t seem to think it’s gonna rain all that much either.

[don]

Watch coming...

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Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161812Z - 162045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop after 19Z from southeast
Texas into southwest Louisiana. Large hail as well as damaging gusts
will be likely, and a brief tornado will be possible as well.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretching from central into northeast
TX continues to shift east/southeast, with prominent outflow.
Although the air mass ahead of this line continues to gradually
destabilize due to heating, a surge of rich boundary layer moisture
is moving in from the southwest, and this will provide a greater
contribution. GPS PWAT values will increase rapidly by over 0.50" as
the mid to upper 70s F dewpoints arrive. Indicative of this robust
moisture are cells forming within the warm advection zone just off
the LA Coast.

Therefore, as the primary line of storms moves in from the
northwest, strengthening may occur especially where the line
intersects the warm front, with additional cells forming along the
length of the warm front. Damaging hail and wind will be likely.
Low-level shear along the warm front may support a brief tornado or
two as well, with 0-1 SRH values above 100 m2/s2.

..Jewell/Jewell.. 05/16/2024

[Cpv17]

The latest HRRR has some isolated 6”+ spots in Harris County.