May 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote: It will be interesting to see how wet June ends up this year. As June is Houstons wettest month on average.
Last year the faucet turned off the last week of May.
Not here in Houston, we had several significant severe weather events last June.To be fair though rainfall was still below normal in June, but it didn't dry up completely here in Houston.


Screenshot 2024-05-14 at 18-01-19 NWS Houston Texas February 2020 Regional Climate Summary - Annual_2023_Regional_Climate_Summary.pdf.png
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Cromagnum
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I know folks up north wouldn't mind sharing, but I wish some real rain would come south. I'm at 0.75" for the entire month.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 5:55 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote: It will be interesting to see how wet June ends up this year. As June is Houstons wettest month on average.
Last year the faucet turned off the last week of May.
Not here in Houston, we had several significant severe weather events last June.To be fair though rainfall was still below normal in June, but it didn't dry up completely here in Houston.



Screenshot 2024-05-14 at 18-01-19 NWS Houston Texas February 2020 Regional Climate Summary - Annual_2023_Regional_Climate_Summary.pdf.pngCaepture.PNG
Last summer was so brutally hot and dry, I barely remember any of that lol all I remember is getting a lot of rain in May and then almost nothing for 3 months.
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jasons2k
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Wow, Frank Billingsley is leaving KPRC:

https://www.chron.com/news/article/fran ... 458210.php
Stratton20
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I hate to hear that, 6 years ago back in high school i had the chance to go meet frank at their studio behind the scenes and he showed me around, such a great human being! One of my favorite meteorologists, he had a great run at kprc, over 30 years.
Cpv17
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Yikes, the 0z HRRR looks awful for areas up north again for Thursday.
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djmike
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 8:54 pm Yikes, the 0z HRRR looks awful for areas up north again for Thursday.
Can you post a pic?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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From Matt Lanza
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tireman4
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536
FXUS64 KHGX 151133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

After some morning patchy fog, today promises to be very similar to
yesterday. However, ridging aloft will be a tad more pronounced.
Therefore, we may tack on an extra degree or two or three as
compared with yesterday. Inland highs are expected to average around
90 degrees (~mid 80s at the coast). Humidity is expected to be
relatively low once again (for Gulf coast standards), with afternoon
dew points generally in the low 60s (upper 60s at the coast).

While we enjoy the quiet toasty weather today, a mid/upper trough
will move eastward over SW CONUS. The resulting PVA increase across
western Texas/Oklahoma will induce LL pressure falls and gradually
increase the pressure gradient across the Lone Star State. You will
notice this via a return to SE LL flow from the Gulf. As SE flow
continues into the evening and overnight hours, moisture from the
Gulf will pool northward. A stalled frontal boundary (currently well
offshore) is expected to lift northward through the night as a warm
front, and stall over our CWA on Thursday. Where it stalls is
somewhat uncertain, but the current data suggest it will be
somewhere over our central or northern counties. The aforementioned
trough moves into W Texas on Thursday. Its large scale PVA along
with a parade of vort maxes embedded in the enhanced southwesterly
subtropical jet aloft will bring plentiful synoptic scale ascent.
HREF ensemble mean PWAT show widespread 1.8-2.2 inch values by
Thursday afternoon across SE Texas. In the low levels, some of the
data is hinting at the development of a sfc low pressure system over
W Texas that could move eastward along the stalled boundary. This
could impact the SE Texas atmosphere in a few ways. For starters, it
could enhance LL S to SE flow. HREF 850MB ensemble mean winds
suggest the development of a 25-35 kt LL jet. The low could also
further enhance LL convergence along the boundary, providing a focus
region for deep convective development. Instability south of the
boundary could be high, with ensemble means indicating a good shot
of 2000+ J/kg CAPE in what would be the inflow region of developing
convection. So let`s talk about what this all means for southeast
Texas.

Generally speaking, there is a concern for heavy rainfall across
most of the CWA. WPC has continued the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4)
of excessive rainfall north of I-10 while most elsewhere is in a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). The continuation of the Moderate Risk is
warranted for two primary reasons. The first being the antecedent
soil conditions from recent heavy rains. Unfortunately, it may not
take that much rain to result in flooding issues, especially across
the Piney Woods region. The second reason is the placement of the
boundary coupled with the overall synoptic set up. This is expected
to favor deep convective development over our central and northern
counties by Thursday afternoon. As Thursday afternoon progresses
into Thursday evening and night, mesoscale processes may push the
thunderstorm activity farther south. Widespread Thursday to Thursday
night rainfall totals are expected to be 2-4 inches north of I-10,
then drop to less than an inch near the coast. However, locally much
heavier totals over 6 inches are possible.

Though flooding is the primary concern, it is worth mentioning that
a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. SPC has placed
areas north of I-10 under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms on Thursday. Areas farther south are under a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 4). Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The storm system should be exiting our area off to the east on Friday.
But before it goes, we could get one more shot of some showers/storms
in the afternoon thru early evening hours. Hopefully, rainfall totals
from this activity do not add too much to our already saturated locations.
The previously mentioned break in our recent rain events is still on
track beginning on Saturday and continuing into the first half of next
week as ridging aloft builds across the state. This pattern change will
shut down our rains. Friday will be the coolest of the days with afternoon
highs in the 80s. Over the weekend and on into next week, highs will
be mainly in the lower 90s, but we could see some mid 90s here and there.
Lows during this period will be mainly in and upper 60s to low 70s range,
but by Tuesday the 60s will likely disappear. Peak heat index values
will be mainly in the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat safety precautions
should be taken.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Patchy fog this morning should break over the next couple of
hours. Overall, VFR cigs and vis will prevail through the TAF
period. High level clouds are expected to increase overnight. The
cloud deck is expected to lower by tomorrow morning but remain
VFR. Winds will generally be light and out of the southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Winds will transition to the east to southeast today, and this onshore
flow will gradually strengthen and persist through the end of the week
and into the weekend. Caution flags might be needed at times. Periods
of unsettled weather are possible on Thursday and Friday, although highest
shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated inland. Brief offshore
winds are possible if any storm complexes make it off the coast. Drier
weather can be expected over the weekend and into early next week.

42

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record high temperatures were set in Galveston and Palacios yesterday
(May 14th). For Galveston, yesterday`s high temperature of 90 degrees
broke the old record of 88 degrees that was last set in 2022. Galveston`s
records date back to 1874. For Palacios, yesterday`s high temperature
of 91 degrees broke the old record of 90 degrees that was set in 1959.
Palacios`s records date back to 1943.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 67 83 69 / 0 20 80 60
Houston (IAH) 89 69 83 71 / 0 20 80 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 82 75 / 0 10 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams
Cromagnum
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It's brutal outside.

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DoctorMu
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Looks like a bust below Hwy 79 on the NAM

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cperk
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I've programed my sprinkler system to turn on tomorrow morning i don't expect anything from this event. :)
Stratton20
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Im expecting to see more coverage further south than what the nam shows, the nam is absolutely atrocious when it comes to rain
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tireman4
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Pat Cavlin...
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Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 2:24 pmPat Cavlin...
Guess what? It’s all north of I-10 again :D
Last edited by Cpv17 on Wed May 15, 2024 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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HRRR's mild showers would be fine.

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Stratton20
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We may have to watch friday closely for more flooding as some of the mesoscale guidance is starting to show yet another disturbance moving in with more heavy rain behind thursdays system
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don
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DoctorMu
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Thursday night in CLL for coverage by the MCS. By Friday the system is moving on out.

Cady is more confident in sizable rain totals. We'll see.

An extended capping period begins on Saturday.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A modest increase in surface moisture, thanks in large part to the
redevelopment of low level southeasterly winds, has brought
surface dew point temperatures back into the upper 60s across much
of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, a slight increase in the
strength of the prevailing midlevel ridge over the area has
allowed for highs to break into the lower 90s at many
locations.

The main weather story in the immediate term continues to surround
the potential for periods of heavy rainfall, as well as some
isolated severe storms, during the afternoon and evening hours
tomorrow. As has remained evident in the previous several forecast
packages, conditions will become favorable for periods of heavy
rain. The approach of a weak surface low, and its resultant
tightening of the surface pressure gradient, will continue to
provide a surge in moisture with total PWs expected to surge to
around 2.0 - 2.25 in across most of the area of the afternoon. A
weak surface warm front associated with this surface low will be
subsequently situated just north of the I-10 corridor.
Aloft, the
approach of a robust midlevel trough (along with several weak
embedded impulses ahead of it) will provide sufficient lift to
trigger the development of showers and storms beginning in the
afternoon. Environmental parameters also favor the development of
some stronger storms, with SREF mean SBCAPE values in excess of
2000 J/Kg across much of the area by the afternoon and bulk shear
values of around 50 kt.


HiRes models remain in fairly good agreement in showing the
initial convective mode as a few discrete storms as the midlevel
trough swings into the Southern Plains, transitioning to the
development of a fairly robust MCS that will move through the area
during the late afternoon/evening. QPF amounts have remained
fairly steady, with the highest rainfall totals expected to remain
situated north of the I-10 corridor (2-4" widespread, isolated
amounts of around 6"). Given the significant antecedent rainfall
that has impacted this area over the past several weeks, this will
pose a threat for flash flooding
(WPC has maintained a Moderate
Risk of Excessive Rainfall as a result). Heavy rains will also
result in potential rises to area rivers/creeks/streams, including
locations that have been experiencing ongoing river flooding in
recent weeks. Furthermore, given the favorable instability and
shear in place, there will be a potential for strong winds and
large hail in any stronger storms that do develop.

Storms should generally taper off just before midnight tomorrow,
though lingering PVA due to the passage of the trough aloft may
result in some additional scattered activity on Friday (see long
term section below).

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Friday expecting continued scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity...mainly over coastal counties...along convergence axis
associated with left over boundary. Should finally see any lingering
convection shift east of the area Friday evening...as upper trough
axis shifts east.

Saturday through Wednesday...will see a prolonged period of
onshore flow and hot...humid conditions. At upper
levels...expecting flow pattern to be characterized by upstream
ridge and downstream trough..with general subsidence. At low
levels...moderate onshore flow will continually pump in moisture
from the Gulf. As a result looking at a hot and humid period from
Saturday on with little or no rain. Upper ridge shifts E of the
area by next Tue and Wed...but surface convergence...boundary
forcing remains well to the NW and airmass somewhat capped even
then.

DR
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 5:15 pm We may have to watch friday closely for more flooding as some of the mesoscale guidance is starting to show yet another disturbance moving in with more heavy rain behind thursdays system
I noticed that on the HRRR and FV3.
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