May 2024

[Pas_Bon]

Amazing that the qpf map has still not once pinpointed where the heaviest rains fell for this weeks event and/or has gotten anywhere close the amount that has fallen. Are/did models have/having a hard time with this weeks events? I have yet seen one that said the last 7 days 15-30” would be possible.

Every model had a really tough time with this past week’s forecast. The HRRR performed best from what I noticed. Please note there is nothing scientific behind that observation…..simply a rudimentary overlook.

I think the models are all honed in to the overnight MCS for the metro area.

We will dry out for a while after this. I truly feel for our neighbors up north.

[Cpv17]

Our ranch house is catching hail, literally.

I assume there was an error and it meant 3 inches of hail, surely, not 3 feet.

From what I’m hearing, it was 3 feet and not inches. Insane if true.

[Pas_Bon]

Our ranch house is catching hail, literally.

I assume there was an error and it meant 3 inches of hail, surely, not 3 feet.

From what I’m hearing, it was 3 feet and not inches. Insane if true.

Holy ****

[CrashTestDummy]

Wow!! I hope someone gets pictures of that if true!!

[Cromagnum]

The line evaporated as it got to me. Grand total for the week. 0.1 inch. What a damn joke.

[tireman4]

Well, it is not a joke for areas near me. More coming

[srainhoutx]

GM0ZQ2BbsAAs25-.jpeg (61.14 KiB) Viewed 394 times

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 AM EDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051328Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms developing along a
boundary west of Houston track along the boundary over
hydrologically sensitive areas west of Houston and into the
Houston Metro. Considerable urban flash flooding potential is
increasing.

DISCUSSION...Training convection developing west of Houston is
moving east towards Houston this morning. The storms have formed
along an outflow boundary that was set by the MCS that is
departing off to the east. CAMs guidance suggests the boundary
will remain nearly stationary through the day. Abundant Gulf
moisture moving in from the Gulf will continue to feed moisture
and instability into the storms through midday. Thus, the
potential for significant, considerable, and high-impact urban
flash flooding is increasing.

CAMs guidance remains in poor agreement on how this boundary will
behave through the day today. Much of the guidance is much further
south with the boundary than where it has actually developed.
However, they are in better agreement that the boundary convection
will not only continue to develop, but gradually backbuild west to
as far as the Rio Grande. Should that occur a follow-up MPD may be
needed. For now, the area of concern remains for portions of
Southeast Texas, as regardless of how far west the convection
develops later, storms are likely to continue in the highlighted
area.

Wegman

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...

[don]

Getting concerned for Houston.Traning is setting up along I-10. It’s raining crazy heavy outside.

[Dls2010r]

We’re sunny with very little rain in Santa Fe.

[Cpv17]

Most folks south of I-10 still haven’t seen much of anything lol should fill in later this afternoon though.

[don]

More storms are developing to the Southwest.

[Dls2010r]

I hope we don’t get any rain. Yard is a bit of a mud hole. I just had a gorgeous patio installed from Starside Construction. So yes rain won’t fall on my head anymore but I need the yard to dry out.

[Dls2010r]

Has anyone heard from Montgomery aka thunder sleet?

[don]

Has anyone heard from Montgomery aka thunder sleet?

He is still here,but he moved to Weimar,Texas in Colorado county.

[Cpv17]

I hope we don’t get any rain. Yard is a bit of a mud hole. I just had a gorgeous patio installed from Starside Construction. So yes rain won’t fall on my head anymore but I need the yard to dry out.

You’re probably gonna get some more rain later today. That stuff out by Victoria looks to be headed your way. And Thundersleet/CoCo usually doesn’t post on here this time of the year. He only appears during the winter for the most part but will still occasionally post during various parts of the year.

[don]

We’re sunny with very little rain in Santa Fe.

The sun peaking out is just adding fuel to the fire for the storms to the west/southwest.

[user:null]

Obscene how the north side has gotten so much that it's going to flood people out of homes and it's bone dry south of I-10

The SE/coastward areas often do have a drying tendency during spring storm patterns. But the opposite tends to be true during the summer, when Brazoria county, Galveston county, SE Harris county, etc can catch storm cells, rain bands, inverted troughs, etc that miss northern areas.

Hopefully more of the southern viewing area can get rain this month. But I don't think this particular summer will be anything like last summer.

If you want to get even more frustrated, take a look at the current radar (9:25am CDT 5/3/2024) map of Louisiana.....

Similar pattern in Louisiana regarding these spring storms. Western areas of the state (Acadiana, Shreveport region, etc) have gotten a lot of rain so far, whereas New Orleans farther east has not gotten near as much.

[user:null]

It's that angle from the Gulf since most of the prevailing mid and upper level air is SW to NE or West to East.

For example, Corpus Christi is right on the Gulf Coast but only receives about 32 inches of rain a year. They are closer to the SW cap and Mexican air squashing rain chances. The dry line never makes it to Corpus inhibiting rain chances in April. September and later tropical season are their best chance of rain. Brownsville sees less than 27 in of rain/year.

...whereas LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle coasts are deluged with Gulf moisture all year round! 60+ inches/year are typical.

Indeed there is a steep gradient for rainfall on the west side of Houston which continues west and toward Mexico...

And going far eastward also gets a "dry out" in annual totals from that 60+, but more due to dry tendencies in winter/spring compared to the northern Gulf:

Totals are 48 inches in Gainesville and Savannah,

Orlando, Jacksonville, Charleston, etc have similar 50-55inch totals as Houston area.

Especially pronounced in inland areas of Atlantic states: Columbia in SC and Raliegh in NC get ~45 inches. Charlotte NC gets "only" 43 inches of rain annually.

[Pas_Bon]

Cromagnum, it is finally your turn.

[CrashTestDummy]

We were going to do an autocross event today up near IAH. When I got up to check the Radarange, it was a big ol' 'Nope!' for us. They postponed the start of the event an hour, then cancelled for safety. We put the race car up, and it was starting to sprinkle on us. Came back in and checked the radar, and wow, it's now cleared up at IAH, but there's a band heading right for us now!!