Next week severe weather may be worse than this week...
https://youtu.be/_tTNyxeBOys?si=sHa9gF4TnQF8HPLC
May 2024
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Stratton20
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The 12z HRRR has a bullseye of about 14 inches across parts of SE texas, definitely worth watching very closely, could be absolutely devastating if that occurs over the wrong area again
What time period are we talking for this new system.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 11:59 am The 12z HRRR has a bullseye of about 14 inches across parts of SE texas, definitely worth watching very closely, could be absolutely devastating if that occurs over the wrong area again
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Stratton20
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cperk sunday- early monday
This was posted by the NWS prediction centers 1hour ago.
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WPC mentions the moderate risk may be expanded south in future updates.
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Mon May 06 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
21Z update... Given the uptick in QPF trends over the water-logged
locations of southeast Texas, a Moderate Risk was raised for this
period. Areas of flooding are ongoing and additional rainfall will
only serve to aggravate or worsen conditions. Hi-res guidance is
depicting severals hours of rainfall rates pulsing from 1 to 3+
inch/hour as the cells cross the state. Over half of these
solutions show the heavy rains tracking across areas south and
east of of the Houston metro, so there may be the need for an
expansion of the Moderate Risk with future updates.
Campbell
They system over the Plains today will continue to move eastward on
Sunday. Storms will likely be ongoing in portions of
eastern/southeastern Texas at the start of the period Sunday and
will continue pushing eastward with training of cells appearing
likely along an east- west- oriented boundary on the south end of
a more progressive line of storms. There is inherent and typical
uncertainty with where that line will set up, especially with
recent large southward shifts in the guidance and a fairly large
spread within any suite of guidance. Thus, to cover the large
changes in the guidance, as well as very recent and ongoing heavy
rain across southeast Texas, maintained the large Slight Risk area.
For the Ozarks region, significant uncertainty also exists, as the
area will be on the northern side of the strong shortwave trough
driving all of the convective activity. The big concern is whether
or not the active convection farther south will disrupt the feed of
moisture and instability. For the moment...will not make too many
changes to the guidance that led to an expansion of the Slight
into parts of Missouri and Arkansas earlier.
Bann
Brazos and Grimes are in a flood warning. Could get even worse tomorrow.
Initially N of I-10 rain on wet ground but downstream flooding could really be a problem in the next few days.
It’s pretty dry where I am. We could get 5” here and handle it pretty well. It’s been a few weeks since we’ve had anything and the crops could use it. May is an important month around here for the crops to get some rain.
Tonight and tomorrow pose the risk of flooding rain.
Then, some ridging - Welcome to the Jungle.
FDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Key Messages:
Flood Watch in effect through Sunday evening for portions of SE
Texas
Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible
tonight through Sunday night (highest amounts generally along and
north of I-10)
Showers continuing to move through Polk County this afternoon. With
a warm, moist, and unstable environment isolated activity could
continue north of I-10 through the afternoon.
Our attention turns to tonight through the Sunday night period. SE
Texas remains under a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. The current
environment will set the stage for the next heavy rainfall event. A
shortwave trough will bring another thunderstorm complex that will
move across Central Texas later tonight. The MCS is projected to
arrive at our western border (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) after
midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
spread SE Sunday as another MCS makes its way through the area.
Soundings reveal a deep saturated layer, PWs near 1.75-2", and a
deep warm cloud layer. This, in addition to a developing LLJ will
contribute to high precipitation efficiency, and heavier rainfall.
Precipitation totals will average 1-3" with smaller areas receiving
higher amounts of 4-8" (generally along and north of I-10).
Unfortunately, much of this area has already been impacted by heavy
rain in the last 7 days, so it will not take much to trigger flash
flooding once again. For this reason, WPC has kept the Brazos
Valley, Piney Woods, and down to the far NW portion of Harris County
in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall while much of the rest of
the area (with the exception of the immediate coast) remains in a
Marginal Risk for today into tonight.
For Sunday the majority of the area will be in a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall as rounds of showers and storms continue to move
through. There is a bullseye for the Moderate Risk area that is
focused over portions of Houston County, much of the Brazos Valley,
down to the I-10 corridor and east into Liberty County. With many
locations within these areas having experienced the most impacts
from recent rainfall, any rainfall over these areas would contribute
to or worsen existing flooding.
In addition to the flood threat, SPC has placed much of the area in
a Marginal Risk and a sliver of the Brazos Valley in a Slight Risk
for severe weather tonight. For tomorrow, the SW CWA is in a Slight
Risk and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. There is
sufficient instability with this stronger shortwave, so a few storms
could become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging
winds.
As this event unfolds, please make sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings, avoid driving across flooded roads, and do not
drive around barricades. Remember, "Turn Around Don`t Drown!"
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The heavy rain threat finally comes to an end on Monday allowing for
rivers to have an extended period to drain. Widespread rain chances
don`t return till the end of the work week, but with southwesterly
flow aloft dominating throughout much of the week we`ll move into a
period of above normal temperatures. Subtle ridging briefly builds
in on Monday allowing for temperatures to increase into the upper
80s...and the temperature climb doesn`t stop there. An upper level
low will persist in the Northern Plains into midweek, which kicks
the ridge axis eastward...but helps to induce southwesterly flow
aloft. 850mb temperatures subsequently surge into the 99th to MAX
percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), so expect temperatures from Tuesday into
the end of the work week to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The hottest temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with
widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. With grounds already
saturated though, this may lead to higher amounts of humidity so
we`ll have to monitor heat index values. Wednesday and Thursday are
again the days to monitor as heat index values look to range from 98-
105F. Given the early onset of this heat (our bodies aren`t
acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects
from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & clean-up
efforts), there is at least some chatter around here about the
potential for a Heat Advisory.
The southwesterly flow aloft means we remain in good positioning for
shortwaves to pass through and generate some showers/storms. These
aren`t anticipated to be widespread though. The first rain chance
comes on Wednesday, but as of right now it appears that most of the
convection will dissipate before it reaches Southeast TX from the
north thanks to a subsidence inversion layer aloft. We`ll see if the
LLJ can help overcome that cap, but it doesn`t look too likely at
the moment (never say never though). Our best chance of rain is at
the end of the work week as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Rain
chances first appear across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on
Thursday afternoon, then the rest of Southeast Texas Friday and into
the weekend.
Batiste
Then, some ridging - Welcome to the Jungle.
FDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Key Messages:
Flood Watch in effect through Sunday evening for portions of SE
Texas
Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible
tonight through Sunday night (highest amounts generally along and
north of I-10)
Showers continuing to move through Polk County this afternoon. With
a warm, moist, and unstable environment isolated activity could
continue north of I-10 through the afternoon.
Our attention turns to tonight through the Sunday night period. SE
Texas remains under a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. The current
environment will set the stage for the next heavy rainfall event. A
shortwave trough will bring another thunderstorm complex that will
move across Central Texas later tonight. The MCS is projected to
arrive at our western border (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) after
midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
spread SE Sunday as another MCS makes its way through the area.
Soundings reveal a deep saturated layer, PWs near 1.75-2", and a
deep warm cloud layer. This, in addition to a developing LLJ will
contribute to high precipitation efficiency, and heavier rainfall.
Precipitation totals will average 1-3" with smaller areas receiving
higher amounts of 4-8" (generally along and north of I-10).
Unfortunately, much of this area has already been impacted by heavy
rain in the last 7 days, so it will not take much to trigger flash
flooding once again. For this reason, WPC has kept the Brazos
Valley, Piney Woods, and down to the far NW portion of Harris County
in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall while much of the rest of
the area (with the exception of the immediate coast) remains in a
Marginal Risk for today into tonight.
For Sunday the majority of the area will be in a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall as rounds of showers and storms continue to move
through. There is a bullseye for the Moderate Risk area that is
focused over portions of Houston County, much of the Brazos Valley,
down to the I-10 corridor and east into Liberty County. With many
locations within these areas having experienced the most impacts
from recent rainfall, any rainfall over these areas would contribute
to or worsen existing flooding.
In addition to the flood threat, SPC has placed much of the area in
a Marginal Risk and a sliver of the Brazos Valley in a Slight Risk
for severe weather tonight. For tomorrow, the SW CWA is in a Slight
Risk and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. There is
sufficient instability with this stronger shortwave, so a few storms
could become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging
winds.
As this event unfolds, please make sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings, avoid driving across flooded roads, and do not
drive around barricades. Remember, "Turn Around Don`t Drown!"
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The heavy rain threat finally comes to an end on Monday allowing for
rivers to have an extended period to drain. Widespread rain chances
don`t return till the end of the work week, but with southwesterly
flow aloft dominating throughout much of the week we`ll move into a
period of above normal temperatures. Subtle ridging briefly builds
in on Monday allowing for temperatures to increase into the upper
80s...and the temperature climb doesn`t stop there. An upper level
low will persist in the Northern Plains into midweek, which kicks
the ridge axis eastward...but helps to induce southwesterly flow
aloft. 850mb temperatures subsequently surge into the 99th to MAX
percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), so expect temperatures from Tuesday into
the end of the work week to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The hottest temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with
widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. With grounds already
saturated though, this may lead to higher amounts of humidity so
we`ll have to monitor heat index values. Wednesday and Thursday are
again the days to monitor as heat index values look to range from 98-
105F. Given the early onset of this heat (our bodies aren`t
acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects
from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & clean-up
efforts), there is at least some chatter around here about the
potential for a Heat Advisory.
The southwesterly flow aloft means we remain in good positioning for
shortwaves to pass through and generate some showers/storms. These
aren`t anticipated to be widespread though. The first rain chance
comes on Wednesday, but as of right now it appears that most of the
convection will dissipate before it reaches Southeast TX from the
north thanks to a subsidence inversion layer aloft. We`ll see if the
LLJ can help overcome that cap, but it doesn`t look too likely at
the moment (never say never though). Our best chance of rain is at
the end of the work week as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Rain
chances first appear across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on
Thursday afternoon, then the rest of Southeast Texas Friday and into
the weekend.
Batiste
Bring it. It could rain 5 inches here and be dry within a day.
Amazing that the qpf map has still not once pinpointed where the heaviest rains fell for this weeks event and/or has gotten anywhere close the amount that has fallen. Are/did models have/having a hard time with this weeks events? I have yet seen one that said the last 7 days 15-30” would be possible.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Our ranch house is catching hail, literally.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4295
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Guidance is coming in more progressive with the MCS tommorow, 00z mesoscale models cutting back on rain totals somewhat, thats very encouraging to see!
I'm not out there at the momrnt but apparently it was bad.
Pictures are starting to come in. It's been bad storms 3 days in a row out there. Tornadoes and hail each day.
That’s not what us south of I-10 wanna hear lolStratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2024 9:31 pm Guidance is coming in more progressive with the MCS tommorow, 00z mesoscale models cutting back on rain totals somewhat, thats very encouraging to see!