May 2024

[Ptarmigan]

Really bad storms out in central Texas south of Abilene. Lots of tornadoes.

I looked at Doppler radar and see thunderstorms in Central Texas and some firing up over Mexico.

[txbear]

Really bad storms out in central Texas south of Abilene. Lots of tornadoes.

Abilene had a PDS warning for a minute. Pretty bad tornado north of the city for a short while before lifting and no impact to the city or the Air Force base there.

[don]

The 0Z HRRR shows 3 separate disturbances moving through SE Texas over the next 48 hours. One early tomorrow morning,another one tomorrow evening, and the third on Saturday morning.FWIW

[Cpv17]

I believe Saturdays rain chance may need to be raised and that’s exactly why I said earlier about I’m not so sure about a dry pattern developing after tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

I believe Saturdays rain chance may need to be raised and that’s exactly why I said earlier about I’m not so sure about a dry pattern developing after tomorrow.

Looks like my projection of a strong cap all spring is gonna bust.

And I’m 100% OK with that.

[Cromagnum]

10 minutes up the road from our ranch house in Paint Rock. Not my pictures, but we were going out there in a week.

[Ptarmigan]

I believe Saturdays rain chance may need to be raised and that’s exactly why I said earlier about I’m not so sure about a dry pattern developing after tomorrow.

That is what I am thinking too. These disturbances and thunderstorms are hard to forecast.

[Cpv17]

Oh boy, the latest run of the HRRR is looking quite interesting.

[jasons2k]

Oh boy, the latest run of the HRRR is looking quite interesting.

Deja vu. You said that last night.

[DoctorMu]

It's feast or famine. 3.83 inches from the latest MCV this morning. That is 10.24 inches of rain for the week!

Welcome to Texas! We'll continue to see a ramping up of extremes in Texas over the coming years. Longer periods of drought in the summer and more flooding rains.

Stratton - you must be thinking of North Carolina, my old stomping grounds. We had no need for a sprinkler system, and watering with a hose was very occasional. There's a nice shower every other day...and then it moves on.

Burlington, NC
Average rain:
June: 4.63 inches
July: 4.39 in
September 4.91 inches
August: 4.12 in

Yearly total: 49.5 inches. Plants, including more acidic loving gardenias thrive.

NC is God's Country.
Texas is Godforsaken Country.

Texas is sandwiched between the GoM, Mexico, Great Plains, Southwest and Louisiana. We're not far enough east to take advantage of more consistent rain from Gulf moisture. Texas in the transition zone, so numerous elements fight it out and we bear load of the Death Ridge in the summer. The dry line battles The Cap, etc.

In the summer in CLL, we're a humid subtropical desert.

College Station may be closer to a semi arid climate like Austin and San Antonio than tropical.The weather can be sometimes completely different in the coastal counties compared to up there in the summer.Texas being in a transition zone between climate zones creates a LARGE variation in yearly rainfall over the state.

Transition zone is the key. CLL is both. The line of demarcation is between Navasota and Hempstead.

Even with "dry" meaning lack of rain in the summers, the DP is usually 70°F+. Occasional mixdowns and desiccation with prolonged droughts. We did have a few years on NW flow in the summer, which were more bearable. We feel the wrath of the Death Ridge nearly every summer and just miss out on sea breezes as they die near Navasota or the wayward summer FROPA which die near Hearne...ergo the "AggieDome."

[DoctorMu]

We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

The MCV near Waco *could* take a right hand turn.

[869MB]

IMG_1968.gif

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030553Z - 030853Z

Summary...Brief/localized heavy rainfall could lead to a flash
flood risk in areas just east of Waco over the next couple hours.

Discussion...Convection that had formed along a dryline in
west-central Texas earlier this evening has persisted while
growing upscale into a small linear segment that now extends from
near Waco to near Temple along I-35 in central Texas currently.
The storms had been sustained primarily due to upscale growth into
a focused, propagating linear segment along the leading edge of a
mature cold pool. These cells were producing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates (estimated per MRMS), which ordinarily wouldn't be
significant for the region. However, parts of the area downstream
of the convection have experienced 2-5 inches of rain in the past
24 hours (and 5-10 inches over the past 72 hours), with wet local
ground conditions supporting efficient runoff and flash flood
potential.

The cluster is currently outperforming many models in terms of
longevity, and may continue to do so for a couple more hours given
its organization. Weaker instability immediately downstream of
the convection may allow for gradual weakening over time, however,
and a more southward propagation of this cluster into greater
instability may be needed for any further persistence beyond
09-10Z. Given the scenario and doubts about persistence of this
cluster through the night, a relatively short-duration MPD is
being issued, and the convective scenario will be re-evaluated
closer to 08Z.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32049621 31739492 30439514 30419657 30679751
31569745 31869717

[Stratton20]

Seeing new cell development in areas that desperately do not need anymore rain, concerning, will see if this development moves south over time

[tireman4]

The same areas that were affected yesterday are getting rounded now, including mine. Be careful.

[Cromagnum]

Obscene how the north side has gotten so much that it's going to flood people out of homes and it's bone dry south of I-10

[Pas_Bon]

Obscene how the north side has gotten so much that it's going to flood people out of homes and it's bone dry south of I-10

If you want to get even more frustrated, take a look at the current radar (9:25am CDT 5/3/2024) map of Louisiana.....

[Cpv17]

I like how that outflow boundary is triggering off storms to the SW now. Hopefully some folks south of 10 can get something.

[jasons2k]

I’ve gotten over 3” since midnight, over 10” for the event.

[Cpv17]

I’ve gotten over 3” since midnight, over 10” for the event.

I’ve gotten about .10” lol