URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
745 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and East Texas
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 745 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are expected to further
develop across south-central into east Texas this evening, including
parts of the I-35/I-45 corridors. Bouts of large hail and damaging
winds are expected to be the primary hazards, but a tornado could
also occur given the moist environment and some strengthening of
low-level winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Huntsville TX to 60 miles northwest of New Braunfels TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...WW 172...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Guyer
April 2024
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0206
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024
Areas affected...TX Hill Country into the Heart of TX
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 020200Z - 020800Z
Summary...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding likely
with 3-5"+ additional localized totals through the early
overnight. A locally significant to extreme flooding event is also
possible, given the potential for greater than 5" and locally very
wet antecedent conditions.
Discussion...Multiple clusters of convection have organized across
portions of central and eastern TX (from the Hill Country to the
Heart of Texas), resulting in impressive 2-5" localized totals
over the past 3 hours. The mesoscale environment will continue to
support convective development and organization into the overnight
hours, as the air mass is characterized by high instability (SB
CAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and abundant, anomalously high, moisture
(PWATs 1.7-2.1 inches, between the 90th percentile and max moving
average per SPC sounding climatology).
While the 12z/18z CAMs have really struggled to properly develop
convection through the time of writing, the HRRR has managed to
'catch up' more with reality in depicting convection in the proper
places. This is a bit concerning, however, considering that some
of the latest runs of the HRRR (through 00z) depict additional
5-8" localized totals through 07z. And even though the 18z HREF is
off with the placement of convection relative to reality, there is
still a concerning signal for 5" exceedance (20-30%) across
southern portions of the MPD. This also corresponds to similar
probabilities (20-30%) for the 10 year ARI QPF exceedance, and a
bit higher probabilities (20-40%) for 6-hr FFG exceedance.
Given the concerning meteorological environment and indications
for locally significant rainfall rainfall, scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered to be likely. A locally
significant to extreme flooding event is also possible, given both
the elevated probability for localized totals greater than 5" and
very wet antecedent conditions across some eastern portions of the
MPD (per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles of 90%
or greater, and MRMS imagery indicating locally 6"+ over the prior
48 hours in the vicinity of College Station).
Churchill
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024
Areas affected...TX Hill Country into the Heart of TX
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 020200Z - 020800Z
Summary...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding likely
with 3-5"+ additional localized totals through the early
overnight. A locally significant to extreme flooding event is also
possible, given the potential for greater than 5" and locally very
wet antecedent conditions.
Discussion...Multiple clusters of convection have organized across
portions of central and eastern TX (from the Hill Country to the
Heart of Texas), resulting in impressive 2-5" localized totals
over the past 3 hours. The mesoscale environment will continue to
support convective development and organization into the overnight
hours, as the air mass is characterized by high instability (SB
CAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and abundant, anomalously high, moisture
(PWATs 1.7-2.1 inches, between the 90th percentile and max moving
average per SPC sounding climatology).
While the 12z/18z CAMs have really struggled to properly develop
convection through the time of writing, the HRRR has managed to
'catch up' more with reality in depicting convection in the proper
places. This is a bit concerning, however, considering that some
of the latest runs of the HRRR (through 00z) depict additional
5-8" localized totals through 07z. And even though the 18z HREF is
off with the placement of convection relative to reality, there is
still a concerning signal for 5" exceedance (20-30%) across
southern portions of the MPD. This also corresponds to similar
probabilities (20-30%) for the 10 year ARI QPF exceedance, and a
bit higher probabilities (20-40%) for 6-hr FFG exceedance.
Given the concerning meteorological environment and indications
for locally significant rainfall rainfall, scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered to be likely. A locally
significant to extreme flooding event is also possible, given both
the elevated probability for localized totals greater than 5" and
very wet antecedent conditions across some eastern portions of the
MPD (per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles of 90%
or greater, and MRMS imagery indicating locally 6"+ over the prior
48 hours in the vicinity of College Station).
Churchill
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- mcd0206.gif (70.34 KiB) Viewed 323 times
Huntsville is getting pounded. Just light rain here.