Destin sounds appropriate for you. Maybe Tampa or Jacksonville.
I'd be nice to be in Naples or Key West, but certain family events determine certain things. I'm grateful to have the place in Dunedin. It's 6 blocks from the water but quite elevated. Close to Main Street and the Pinellas Trail. Not far from Indian Rocks Beach, our beach spot. It's heaven for us. I just need to start spending more time down there.
I grew up going to the Florida panhandle. I don’t mind the beach or lake in Summer but prefer the mountains. It’s just simply serene.
Yes, the mountains are awesome too. When we lived in Savannah, in the summers we would spend a week in the Smokies. Loved it. And when I went to TTech, it was about 5 hours to Ruidoso. We also like Angel Fire b/c it's laid back.
It's great in those places where the infrastructure is built for it - I just don't need extreme temps IMBY and spending hours prepping for a 'once in a decade' event that happens way too often now.
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:22 pmI also know how to grow a lot of things in cold weather.
Your post here reminded me — quite a few crops (i.e. apples, peaches, etc) do indeed require quite some extent of "chilling hours" to survive and thrive. So that's definitely another benefit of cold, in addition to the aforementioned "pest control."
Still all ears for any other positives that I may have forgotten about...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Scattered rain showers have already begun moving through Southeast
TX late Sunday night and early this morning, and that will fit the
general theme of the day with additional rainfall developing later
this morning into the afternoon. Low level moisture is steadily
rising as a coastal trough (becoming a coastal low) continues to
track along the South TX coast. The associated WAA with this system
is creating an "anti-diurnal" pattern overnight as temperatures are
gradually climbing going towards sunrise. The low temperature for
today occurred right around midnight this morning in the upper 30s
to mid 40s and we`ll see temperatures climb to the upper 40s to low
60s by sunrise. In spite of the widespread rainfall later today,
we`ll still see high temperatures reach the 60s for most of the
region...and that just goes to show how strong the WAA will be once
we get the warm front to push inland since we won`t get any
radiation from the sun. Pack your umbrellas, ponchos, rain boots,
and your patience because today is going to be quite dreary/rainy
and will lead to messy commutes for some. If you`re lucky enough
to be off today, then you can enjoy the PERFECT conditions for
sleeping (nap watch is in effect).
A negatively tilted mid/upper level trough moves in from the west
later this morning providing plenty of PVA with numerous embedded
shortwaves. Moving to the upper levels, we`ll soon be in an area of
upper level divergence in an anti-cyclonically curved jet streak
extending from South TX up through the Ohio River Valley. That`s two
sources of lift...let`s add a third! At the surface, low pressure
develops to our southwest as the coastal trough transitions to a
coastal low. There is a bit of uncertainty on how far inland the
surface low will track and that will be a key factor in play due to
the instability axis within the warm sector. Higher amounts of
instability inland would help generate deeper convection for higher
rainfall rates. There would also be a "cold" front associated with
this surface low, and that would provide frontogenetic forcing for
more lift. You know what...let`s add one more source of lift! A
fairly robust LLJ at 850mb moves overhead later this morning and
into the afternoon. Based on what`s currently ongoing in Central TX,
the rain bands are following the LLJ fairly closely. If you`ve been
outside, then you can definitely feel how moist/humid the airmass is
out ahead of all of these sources of lift approaching. PW values
throughout the short term will be in the 1.4"-1.7" range and the
90th percentile this time of year is ~1.34", so we`re well above
that.
Plenty of moisture + multiple sources of lift = widespread rainfall.
One of those sources of lift is a bit questionable as it looks like
the higher amounts of instability slightly lags behind the main band
of rainfall as it pushes through. Elevated convection is still
likely, but maybe not quite as much as there could be if they
overlapped more. The trends for all of the other heavy rainfall
parameters stand firm including low and mid level RH greater than
85%, warm cloud layer depth greater than 10,000 ft (deep warm cloud
layers increase precipitation efficiency), and K Index greater than
30 (above the threshold for support of heavy rain potential). Cloud
layer winds are still ~40 kts, so these storms will be moving. High
rainfall rates will be the main thing to watch for in any of the
stronger storms as training storms look to be less favorable (not
impossible) in our area as compared to what occurred in the
Austin/San Antonio area earlier this morning. Forecast rainfall
totals for today still range from 2-4" area-wide, but I`m still
anticipating areas north of I-10 and west of I-45 to receive the
higher end of that range due to better alignment of stronger winds
aloft from the LLJ and frontogenetic forcing. Depending on the track
of the surface low, we could see another area of higher amounts
closer to the I-10 corridor due to instability increasing the
potential for higher rainfall rates. WPC has maintained the slight
risk (level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall for all of Southeast
TX for today.
There will be a brief lull in rainfall on Monday night as the LLJ
weakens and pushes out and the upper level trough exits to our
northeast. We do it all over again on Tuesday though as another LLJ
intensifies over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. Additional
shortwaves are sent in ahead of another mid/upper level trough.
Going into the afternoon hours as a jet streak approaches, there is
a bit of diffluence aloft...but there is also convergence aloft as
well. Based on today though, we know that the rainfall is mainly
associated with the LLJ. There is better agreement on Tuesday`s
surface low being further inland and tracking just north of the
Brazos Valley. This means we`ll have an inland instability axis with
MLCAPE values generally ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg. This paired
with a surge of 65+°F dew points, steep 700-500mb lapse rates at 6.5-
7°C/km, and 40-60 kts of 0-6km bulk shear brings about the potential
for stronger storms. Again though, the main rainband will be up
north so things aren`t exactly in alignment which is why there is
only a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for most
of Southeast Texas. If a storm were to become strong to severe, the
main hazards would be strong winds and hail...but heavy rain will be
the most likely hazard once again. Rainfall totals of 1-3" are
expected on Tuesday with most of that falling in the Brazos Valley,
which may see the higher end of the rainfall totals on Monday as
well. That would be a two-day total of 4-6" for that area. So, not
surprising that Tuesday features another area-wide slight risk for
excessive rainfall.
The rainfall continues into Tuesday night as upper level divergence
establishes along with lingering moisture. Three full paragraphs is
probably enough for the heavy rainfall talk, so let`s jump back into
temperatures. Given the persistent cloud cover and elevated
moisture, there won`t be much diurnal range going into Monday night
as low temperatures only drop down into the upper 50s/low 60s.
Temperatures on Tuesday rebound into the upper 60s/low 70s with
another round of WAA. Tuesday is another one of those low diurnal
range nights as low temperatures only drop into the low 60s for
most. I mentioned this in yesterday`s discussion, but I`ll throw it
in again. One (or both) of these next two nights would be the first
time of the year with a low temperature above 60°F for the City of
Houston! The last time we had a low temperature in the 60s was just
before Christmas on December 23rd...so right around a month ago!
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Another batch (what looks like the last one) of showers/thunderstorms
moves across the area during the day on Wednesday as the upper trof
and surface low move across the area. Any heavy rains falling on/near
already saturated grounds could lead to one more shot of some flooding.
Some rain chances will stay in the forecast through the end of the week
and on into Saturday as the next trof axis moves eastward across the
southern/central plains. We`ll finally have a dry forecast back for
the entire area starting Saturday night.
For temperatures, highs Wednesday through Friday will be mostly in an
upper 60s to lower 70s range, low to mid 60s on Saturday and mid 50s
to around 60 on Sunday. Lows will be in the 50s Thursday through Saturday
followed by the 40s on Sunday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period for
all area terminals. LBX/GLS are currently above IFR, but as
rainfall moves in from the west these two terminals will make
their way to IFR later this morning. Gusty southerly to
southeasterly winds later this morning into the early afternoon as
a weather system pushes through, then winds quickly subside behind
it going into the late afternoon hours. High-resolution model
guidance has fairly good agreement on a band of showers/storms
moving in between 17Z-22Z across the region. Additional
showers/storms may linger behind this line into the early evening
hours. The next round of rain begins on Tuesday morning, but there
may be a bit of sea fog to deal with first for GLS during the
overnight hours.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Strong/gusty east to southeast winds and elevated seas will prevail
through most of the day today (especially this morning) with the approach
and passage of a strong storm system. Advisories and caution flags are
in effect through tonight. Weaker winds and lowering seas can be expected
tonight through Wednesday (mainly caution flags and maybe advisories
are possible for the seas...especially offshore). Rounds of scattered
to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through
Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Then, less rain coverage can be
expected through Saturday. Offshore winds return to the area on Thursday.
42
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
With heavy rainfall potential over the next few days and rainfall
totals of 4-7" for the week, we`ll need to monitor the response at
our river/stream/bayou gauges as runoff will be a bit higher than
usual due to recent nights of hard freezes hardening the soils. This
is especially true for our northern areas where the higher end of
the rainfall totals are possible. Additionally, soils are ~60%
saturated along the coastal plains with these areas having well
above normal precipitation over the past month...so that increases
their runoff potential in this region. There will be some potential
for street flooding, mainly where high rainfall rates occur for a
prolonged period of time in low lying areas or areas with poor
drainage. Our main focus though will be on the potential for
river/creek flooding as forecast trends continue to hold for
widespread action stage and minor river flooding with moderate river
flooding possible. Stay tuned to the forecast for additional updates
as day one of the heavy rainfall event begins later today.
Batiste
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Here are some rainfall records (and year set) for today (22nd),
Tuesday (23rd) and Wednesday (24th)...
I can't wait to the see the newest Univ of Nebraska US Drought Monitor maps for Tx/La later this week. I'd guess there will be nary a color on said maps.
