January 2024

[Stratton20]

Im thkning the WPC will cut back on those totals, ensembles and some global guidance are starting to show the heavier rain shifting off to the east of US, even the GFS/ GEFS is very unimpressive

[Cpv17]

Im thkning the WPC will cut back on those totals, ensembles and some global guidance are starting to show the heavier rain shifting off to the east of US, even the GFS/ GEFS is very unimpressive

You better hope not. We need the rain man. Rain around here is hard to come by these days.

[don]

Im thkning the WPC will cut back on those totals, ensembles and some global guidance are starting to show the heavier rain shifting off to the east of US, even the GFS/ GEFS is very unimpressive

There is nothing "unimpressive" about this. Remember it's January not Spring or Summer. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with up to 8 inches in localized spots IS impressive for January standards. Hell, even in the Spring this would still be considered a decent rain event.And not only is this rainfall needed because there are still areas in drought, but also the more rain we get this winter and spring, the less likely we will have a "death ridge" dominated summer.



Starting to get in range of the meso models.

[djmike]

Updated WPC QPF still shows the Golden Triangle and Louisiana as the bullseye for highest amounts.

[Cromagnum]

Im thkning the WPC will cut back on those totals, ensembles and some global guidance are starting to show the heavier rain shifting off to the east of US, even the GFS/ GEFS is very unimpressive

You better hope not. We need the rain man. Rain around here is hard to come by these days.

Speak for yourself. My yard finally dried out enough to actually walk on.

[Cpv17]

Im thkning the WPC will cut back on those totals, ensembles and some global guidance are starting to show the heavier rain shifting off to the east of US, even the GFS/ GEFS is very unimpressive

You better hope not. We need the rain man. Rain around here is hard to come by these days.

Speak for yourself. My yard finally dried out enough to actually walk on.

A lot of areas around southeast Texas could still use a few inches. Plus if we get good rains now it’ll help us out come hell time.

[Cpv17]

IMG_1339.jpeg

Updated WPC QPF still shows the Golden Triangle and Louisiana as the bullseye for highest amounts.

This is almost every time. Not surprising in the least bit.

[user:null]

A lot of areas around southeast Texas could still use a few inches. Plus if we get good rains now it’ll help us out come hell time.

I've seen you previously mention predictions of active Atlantic tropical cyclone season for 2024 — the more neutral ENSO states (as looks to be coming this year) do seem very ample with summer storms here, from what I can recall.

So here's hoping we can actually feature some of this rainfall during the coming "hell time."

[don]

WPC in their afternoon discussion mentioned that a moderate risk may be needed on Monday, especially in the Houston area...

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 22 2024 - 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...2030Z Update...

For the Arklatex Region, rainfall amounts continue to increase,
though not too much from inherited. This area has recently been
dry as well, except southern Arkansas where soil moisture
conditions are about average. However, with PWATs getting over 1.5
inches at the Gulf Coast, and a strong longwave trough digging
over the Southwest the rainfall concerns amount to nearly
stationary forcing with a steady stream of Gulf moisture resulting
in an all day event across east Texas, including Houston. Overall,
the dry antecedent conditions may delay the start of any flash
flooding, but there's increasing confidence that flash flooding
will occur into east Texas and western Louisiana. Since the
forecast has not changed all that much, the Slight was maintained,
but continued scrutiny of a possible Moderate, especially around
Houston will be needed.

[Cpv17]

In the past 3 days the GFS went from having Texas in the bullseye, to
Louisiana, to now Mississippi lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Bullseye or not. I’ll take 4-6 inches. It will fill the tank back up here.

[Cpv17]

Bullseye or not. I’ll take 4-6 inches. It will fill the tank back up here.

Oh hell yeah, no doubt! I just kinda had my hopes up for a bigger event. I feel let down lol

[don]

0Z HRRR with a complete washout. Keep in mind this only goes out to Monday and doesn't include any additional rain that will happen Tuesday-Wednesday.

[Cromagnum]

In the past 3 days the GFS went from having Texas in the bullseye, to
Louisiana, to now Mississippi lol

The GFS has been mostly worthless for everything lately.

[DoctorMu]

Welp. It's ride or die by the Euro.



https://youtu.be/WcvBADQhBpE?si=LxcVjAIBZVxJLRk-

[DoctorMu]

NAM is pretty close to the Euro. Heavy precip is a bit more NE



Other Mesos are in the ballpark. It's on.

[DoctorMu]

We had a low of 24°F last night IMFY.

A light freeze tonight. Taking in the dry air while it lasts!




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024

With the deepening SW flow at the mid/upper levels, broken to over-
cast clouds will continue moving into the region this evening from
the SW. This could have some impacts on temperatures overnight but
we`ll still see some cold readings through tomorrow morning...part-
icularly for our N/NE counties (around the Piney Woods) where lows
could fall into the mid and upper 20s. Otherwise, the forecast has
lows ranging from the lower 40s near Matagorda Bay...and the lower
to mid 30s for the central counties/Brazos Valley.

East to southeast low-level winds will develop/strengthen tomorrow
in response to the approach of a coastal trough tracking northward
along the eastern coast of Mexico and a LLJ forms as surface press-
ures fall over the Southern Plains. Generally overcast skies along
with breezy conditions should keep daytime temperatures on the low
side tomorrow...with highs mostly in the 40s north of I-10 and at/
around 50 to the south. As for rain chances...the bulk of SE TX is
expected to remain dry, but POPs will begin creeping up from the W
and SW through the afternoon hours. As the surface coastal low and
its associated mid/upper level trough nears SE TX tomorrow night..
activity will begin to spread into our west/southwestern CWA. This
is all setting up for a very wet Mon as these features continue to
move east. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024

A transition to a wet pattern is anticipated through the long term
period with multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Different
upper-level troughs will be moving over the western CONUS/Southern
Rockies, opening a path for Pacific moisture into TX as well as
bringing several disturbances aloft. At the surface, a surface low
over south TX will lift a warm front northward into the region
during the week. The combination of upper and low level forcing and
abundant moisture will lead to unsettled conditions through late in
the long term period. Deterministic models and most ensemble means
continue to show this pattern, suggesting precipitable waters near
the 99th to max percentile of both NAEFS and GEFS climatology.

Monday: Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing
across the entire region. Increasing warm and humid air at the
surface aided by a strong southeasterly flow and strong south to
north low level jet will contribute to maintain healthy moisture and
support good dynamic for periods of moderate to heavy rain
(thunderstorms) during the day. This day is progged to be the most
active day due to the best scenario for dynamics/lift. Rainfall
totals up to 4 inches will be possible. WPC included Southeast TX
under a Slight Risk (risk 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall in their
Day 3 Outlook.

Tuesday: Periods of moderate to heavy rain and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms continue during the day. The main focus for
showers/storms will be along the warm front slowly lifting northward
across the region. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will
be possible. There is a Marginal Risk (risk 1 of 4) and a Slight
Risk (2 of 4) of excessive rainfall in the WPC Day 4 Outlook.

Wednesday: Another day with periods of rain and thunderstorms with
the best focus for areas east of I-45. Sfc low and associated warm
front continues across the region, developing decent convergence,
also supported by jet dynamics aloft. Additional rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches possible. WPC highlights portions of the region with a
Marginal and Slight risks of rainfall in their Day 5 Outlook.

Thursday into the weekend: A cold front will enter the region early
Thursday, bringing showers and storms ahead and along the boundary.
There is still some disagreement on the evolution/phase of the
upper trough during this time frame; therefore confidence in any
precipitation chances/amounts is low. Overall, expect rain/storm
chances diminishing as we move into the end of the week and drier
cooler air filters in. As of now, total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8
inches will be possible from early Monday through the end of the
week. Isolated pockets of higher amounts possible. Rises on
rivers/bayous will be possible with river gauges reaching action to
minor flooding stage. Isolated pockets of moderate flooding will be
possible, particularly around those more flood prone river gauges.
Specific details on the forecast will need to be ironed out as model
consensus and resolution improve in the next 12-72 hours.

JM

[don]

[MontgomeryCoWx]

NAM is pretty close to the Euro. Heavy precip is a bit more NE



Other Mesos are in the ballpark. It's on.

Weimar to CS firehose

[Pas_Bon]

Goodbye, drought.