000
ABNT20 KNHC 141500
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE WIND CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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No doubt we will need to watch carefully as the day unfolds. There have been indications that once a definable LLC developed that some rapid intensification could take place. We may well be seeing that at this time IMO.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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From just a viewable perspective, we have a tropical storm. Also, notice the models are flip-flopping and dividing again. Some north, some south, and some further south than before. Yet the ridge currently looks strong and in place. South Texas, Northern Mexico would be as far north as this could go, as of today. There is even talk of this getting into the BOC then adding a southerly component to its movement.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS FORMED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 19:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 19:24:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°10'N 83°55'W (18.1667N 83.9167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 183 miles (295 km) to the WSW (245°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the S (176°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 255° at 27kts (From the WSW at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (176°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 214m (702ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 212m (696ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:32:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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