January 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TexasBreeze
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The Buffalo one is on Monday afternoon now.
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DoctorMu
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I'm going to call 6 am Sunday to 12 pm on Wednesday as freezing or below temperatures in CLL. Lows of 13°F and 11°F Monday and Tuesday nights.
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DoctorMu
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TexasBreeze wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:31 pm The Buffalo one is on Monday afternoon now.
Snowflakes. ;)
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DoctorMu
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Hmmm...the Euro has more moisture, but north of Hwy 1*5.
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don
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A closer look at the 12Z WRF
Attachments
wrf-arw_2024-01-13-12Z_048_32.931_261.539_27.936_267.041_Rain-Snow_Radar_highways.png
brazoriatx
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don wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:43 pm A closer look at the 12Z WRF
Still don't make it to the coast. I gotta move more inland lol
Cromagnum
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South of 59 just has to deal with cold. Yawn. Next.
Stratton20
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And thats a good thing, you dont want freezing rain lol, i nearly got into a bad accident last year because of some light freezing drizzle, it isnt fun
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:23 pm South of 59 just has to deal with cold. Yawn. Next.
South of 59 is never meant for Winter.


Looks exciting for the kids at home. Thinking this will over perform.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:26 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:23 pm South of 59 just has to deal with cold. Yawn. Next.
South of 59 is never meant for Winter.


Looks exciting for the kids at home. Thinking this will over perform.
In 2017 it snowed all the way down to the coast. I was down in Palacios that night.
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:35 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:26 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:23 pm South of 59 just has to deal with cold. Yawn. Next.
South of 59 is never meant for Winter.


Looks exciting for the kids at home. Thinking this will over perform.
In 2017 it snowed all the way down to the coast. I was down in Palacios that night.
Maybe in spots. I've lived in this home for 11 years and only saw a tiny bit of graupel in 2021. It hasn't done anything wintery otherwise despite being cold enough a handful of times.
Stratton20
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WWA issued all the way down to san antonio, we will see if those advisories get expanded east
davidiowx
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 2:29 pm WWA issued all the way down to san antonio, we will see if those advisories get expanded east
I suspect they will if models keep showing precip. Probably will expand to cover a line along Colorado, Austin, Waller etc. counties.

Wharton, Ft. Bend, most of Harris and southward would probably be a now cast watch if it gets to that. Just my two cents.
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don
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 2:29 pm WWA issued all the way down to san antonio, we will see if those advisories get expanded east
HGX already mentioned this morning that Advisories are likely.
▶ Freezing rain/drizzle with some sleet mixed in possible north of I-
10 on Sunday night/Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is likely in
these areas.
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don
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Advisories just expanded into SE Texas. Expect further expansions if the trends continue.

hgx (1).png
hgx (1).png (10.29 KiB) Viewed 471 times
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>212-140600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.240115T0000Z-240116T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, and Waller
213 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch may result in icy patches on elevated
roadways such as bridges and overpasses.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Sleet/ice pellets may mix into the freezing
rain at times. The higher ice accumulations are expected
generally north of SH-105 and east of I-45.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&
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don
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The 18Z NAM is even colder with the freeze line almost to the coast by Monday morning.With freezing rain.

nam-nest-houston-instant_ptype-5316400.png
nam-nest-houston-instant_ptype-5334400.png
brazoriatx
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When would they possibly expand them east to the coastal counties?
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don
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brazoriatx wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 3:06 pm When would they possibly expand them east to the coastal counties?
Possibly by tomorrow morning or afternoon. They probably want to see the overnight model runs before expanding any further south.
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tireman4
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brazoriatx wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 3:06 pm When would they possibly expand them east to the coastal counties?


I would think maybe tomorrow or tonight's AFD
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:35 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:26 pm

South of 59 is never meant for Winter.


Looks exciting for the kids at home. Thinking this will over perform.
In 2017 it snowed all the way down to the coast. I was down in Palacios that night.
Maybe in spots. I've lived in this home for 11 years and only saw a tiny bit of graupel in 2021. It hasn't done anything wintery otherwise despite being cold enough a handful of times.
December of 2017 was a good snowstorm. It snowed from near College Station all the way down to the coast. Where I was it was a solid blanket.
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