HGX getting on board also. They mention Winter weather advisories are likely,and freezing rain is also possible south of I-10.
Key Messages:
▶ Strong Arctic cold front pushes through late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning.
▶ Prolonged periods of subfreezing temperatures are expected from
Sunday night through late Wednesday morning for northern areas.
▶ Widespread hard freeze (≤ 24°F) expected on Monday night and
Tuesday night. Hard freeze also expected across parts of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods on Sunday night.
▶ Freezing rain/drizzle with some sleet mixed in possible north of I-
10 on Sunday night/Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory is likely in
these areas.
In addition to the colder temperatures Sunday night into Monday,
there is the potential for freezing rain for portions of SE Texas.
While it is still too early to get settled in on the approximate
location of the freezing line, it is pretty reasonable to say that
interests in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley may see minor impacts
from freezing rain. H5 level shows some energy associated with an
embedded shortwave working its way through the area during this time
(which will provide some lift) in addition to this energy, there is
a strong amount of isentropic ascent at the 295K level (a common
occurrence during the cold season). Seeing this, along with the
amount of moisture available in the lower levels, and the fact that
is occurring during this period of subfreezing temperatures provides
a little more confidence in keeping freezing rain in the forecast.
When observing soundings and comparing temperatures/RH/DP in a time
height, thinking that the primary mode of precipitation will be
freezing rain with the potential for sleet and a few flurries to mix
in. A lot of factors come into play when it comes to predicting the
accumulation amounts, and in this case, agreeing with WPC that
potential ice accumulations not be much more than a glaze. Firstly,
up to this point we have been pretty warm and ground temperatures
have responded to that. By the time ground temperatures respond to
the subfreezing temperatures, the precipitation chances should be
waning off. Secondly, winds will be a bit breezy during the
predicted time of precipitation, so there is a good chance that a
lot of it will evaporate. That being said, current thoughts are that
there would be patchy icy spots and a glaze on bridges, overpasses,
and other elevated surfaces. We could see freezing rain reach the
Houston metro and some locations south of I-10 and west of I-45;
however, not expecting accumulations for these locations at this
time.
To go along with the previous forecast, and with what was mentioned
by the previous forecaster, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed
for counties north of I-10. Interests in the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods should use caution while driving Sunday Night/Monday.
