January 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Round 2 on GFS. Potential cherry on top.

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walsean1
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:23 am Round 2 on GFS. Potential cherry on top.

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If the GFS model run is correct, that is an eye opener since it’s only a week out because it is almost always too warm and doesn’t pick up on cold dense air especially in our area. I wonder what the NAM model has. Also they have us getting a break in the cold temps this Thursday so interesting.
brazoriatx
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Jeff this morning.

Friday AM:

No big changes overnight with the upcoming cold weather…front arrives Sunday with following hard freezes over much of the area into next week. Wind chills fall into the 1’s and 10’s Monday and Tuesday

This cold weather will be similar in intensity and duration to the Dec 2022 event.

Precipitation:

There is a slight chance of freezing drizzle mainly north and west of the Houston metro area Sunday night into Monday…thermal profiles do NOT support sleet or snow. While moisture is limited, it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause travel related issues. Will need to closely monitor this part of the forecast over the next 24-36 hrs for any changes.

Preparations:

Preparations for an extended period of freezing weather should be completed by Saturday evening. taking proper precautions will hall to mitigate freeze related damages to infrastructure, plants, pets/livestock, people

Proper winterization of any exposed pipes/plumbing will be needed to prevent damage. Sprinkler systems must be shut off and properly drained. Pipes/plumbing on elevated homes must be protected from the ground to the entry point of the structure. Know where the main water shut off is in case pipes freeze or break.

Pets/livestock will require proper shelter to protect from the cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Prolonged exposure to the forecasted temperatures and wind may be fatal to unprotected livestock and pets. Monitor water sources as typical sources may freeze over.

Tropical plants/vegetation will require maximum freeze protection. Unprotected tropical vegetation will be killed and even protect vegetation will likely suffer heavy damage.

Persons should limit outdoor exposure during the cold as wind chills will fall to dangerous levels. Utilize heating sources properly to reduce the risk of fire and carbon monoxide poisoning.
Cromagnum
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Besides just being cold, it seems like everyone in media is showing no frozen precipitation down here at all.
suprdav2
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:50 am Besides just being cold, it seems like everyone in media is showing no frozen precipitation down here at all.
Noticed that this morning too. Has anything changed?
brazoriatx
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suprdav2 wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:00 am
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 8:50 am Besides just being cold, it seems like everyone in media is showing no frozen precipitation down here at all.
Noticed that this morning too. Has anything changed?
Obviously something has if noone is mentioning it anymore
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tireman4
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The forecast is everchanging. I still think Saturday is the day to watch. I believe you will see changes up and until then
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I can think of 6 events over the last decade where we were very surprised or disappointed. These things are always now cast.
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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Picked up .09” overnight. Geez it’s windy.
Next week looks like a roller coaster. I’m hoping for upper teens instead of the lower-mid teens.
Cromagnum
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Gonna be -25 in Kansas Sunday morning....brrr
Last edited by Cromagnum on Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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djmike
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I remember several winter events that completely surprised us. Have a feeling this may be one of them.
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Cromagnum
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I was not expecting all this wind this morning.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 9:42 am Picked up .09” overnight. Geez it’s windy.
Next week looks like a roller coaster. I’m hoping for upper teens instead of the lower-mid teens.
All going to depend on precip
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Cromagnum
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So it's heavy coat weather, and not much else. Guess we'll see what happens with try #2 next week.

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brazoriatx
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Honestly I'm over it lol still have to work monday so at this point who cares lol
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djmike
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Im with brazoria… at this point, still have to go into work. Was hoping for an off day. Atleast one. Lol
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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By the way, today is the 1997 ice storm anniversary! That was crazy. No power for a week in beaumont. Huge trees and limbs toppling over. All I can say is thank goodness for fireplaces.
Last edited by djmike on Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mike
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snowman65
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On to Feburary...
Cromagnum
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Just lost power for the 7th time this week. I hate the shitty infrastructure in my area.
Stratton20
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writing off an event before its started is pretty unwise, the NAM is still showing widespread freezing precip
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