January 2024

[tireman4]

Looks good but linders comments about precip really dont make sense, the euro has not trended drier, if anything the opposite, it has support from the CMC op run and its ensembles as well as its own ensembles, other than that spot on update

He wrote that either last night or early morning. That’s typically when he writes them for early release.

I with Moco, I think he might adjust as the models come in closer to the event. I still think it is a little too early to go with a firm declaration on Monday/Tuesday.

[Stratton20]

Ah I see, not criticizing jeff by any means, think he does a great job with his updates, just wanted to know what he’s seeing since guidance looks different

[don]

Looks good but linders comments about precip really dont make sense, the euro has not trended drier, if anything the opposite, it has support from the CMC op run and its ensembles as well as its own ensembles, other than that spot on update

He posted that at 7:38 AM this morning.

[don]

12Z EURO looks to be back on board with frozen precip.

[tireman4]

We are still aways out for flip flopping, but boy right now it looks icy for the Houston Metro area.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like business as usual on Tuesday in Brazoria County. Just cold rain if that holds up.

[brazoriatx]

Looks like business as usual on Tuesday in Brazoria County. Just cold rain if that holds up.

I'm sure all of the veiwing area would get frozen precip at that point

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like business as usual on Tuesday in Brazoria County. Just cold rain if that holds up.

I'm sure all of the veiwing area would get frozen precip at that point

Correct

[brazoriatx]

Is wxman57 aware that his images he post on s2k don't show up? Or is it just me that isn't seeing them?

[tireman4]

Is wxman57 aware that his images he post on s2k don't show up? Or is it just me that isn't seeing them?

I will tell him. I DMd him

[Stratton20]

It will be interesting to see what the short range guidance shows when it gets into range over the weekend, even light freezing drizzle can be a huge problem

[biggerbyte]

Even the mention of ice should get folks revved up now for the possibility. Even a thin layer, maybe especially a thin layer can prove to be deadly. If it doesn't happen, oh well. As stated by many, and many times, our forecast will evolve. We literally could be 24 to 48 hours out to get any kind of lock on anything, especially in this area.

[Cpv17]

The 7 to 14 day period looks really interesting to me.

[snowman65]

The 7 to 14 day period looks really interesting to me.

It usually does that far out... then.. well, it doesnt lol

[Cpv17]

The 7 to 14 day period looks really interesting to me.

It usually does that far out... then.. well, it doesnt lol

I’m seeking a lot more moisture returning by then with below average temps in place.

[snowman65]

Are most people in agreement that next week wont be like Feb 2021 around here?

[Stratton20]

It wont, but it could be similar to december 2022, except this time precipitation is on the table

[snowman65]

It wont, but it could be similar to december 2022, except this time precipitation is on the table

not sute why I dont remember that one much....hmm

[Pas_Bon]

It wont, but it could be similar to december 2022, except this time precipitation is on the table

not sute why I dont remember that one much....hmm

Right before Christmas when the temps went down to the low teens and we were below freezing for about 36hrs

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Been studying our winter seasons, models and setups for 25 years as this is how I make a good portion of my take home pay. Been a weather fanatic for 37 years and used local Mets to answer questions when I was a child….

We are entering the most unique and exciting 15 day period I can remember. I certainly don’t remember a blocking pattern hand off like this (1973 looks to be the last time we had something similar) and our chances for Winter weather over the next two weeks and then again in February, look much higher than normal.

I’d make a long post pointing out all the variables lining up, but I know most are just going to follow the models as they spaz out during this time frame.

I’m going to sit back and enjoy the next 6 weeks. Bookmark this if you must just like I asked y’all to bookmark the post from late December about weeks 3-4 from then.

I’m happy to eat crow, but I’ve put my money where my mouth is on this one, with a hedge of course, and I’m excited to see it play out.

Easily the most exciting season of the year for the United States and our region.